AMD Q415 results

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AMDisTheBEST

Senior member
Dec 17, 2015
682
90
61
x86 is not a totally closed market. IBM, can manufacture x86 processors at will and you have VIA. That these companies to not make substantial investments on x86 should tell you how profitable it is to invest on it. So if AMD goes under and the FTC forces Intel to open x86 to new licensees, I don't think there will be many companies queuing up for it.

One of the reasons is that building x86 chips is to compete against the guy making the instruction set, which means you'll be always behind in terms of implementing new features of the instruction set, and you'll also only be able to implement your features only if you have a solid backing from dominant software companies like Microsoft or Oracle, which is not easy to get.

Breaking up Intel is not a choice too, the company is too tightly integrated, break it up and you'll end up with two dead parts.

So in the end if AMD goes under, what changes? Nothing. The FTC won't do anything, the prices will stay more or less the same and life will go on.

By US federal law(shaman anti trust act) no company can control above 90% of the market. Several company have been broken up this way.Most prominent example would the attempted merge of AT&T and T-mobile. If AMD leaves, Intel has 100% monopoly over consumer computers, business, and servers. That will ring an alarm bell however you look at it. Not even Microsoft has such dominance considering Linux+Unix have a lion share of the server OS.
 

microAmp

Diamond Member
Jul 5, 2000
5,988
110
106
By US federal law(shaman anti trust act) no company can control above 90% of the market. Several company have been broken up this way.Most prominent example would the attempted merge of AT&T and T-mobile. If AMD leaves, Intel has 100% monopoly over consumer computers, business, and servers. That will ring an alarm bell however you look at it. Not even Microsoft has such dominance considering Linux+Unix have a lion share of the server OS.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherman_Antitrust_Act#Monopoly

Monopoly[edit]
Section 2 of the Act forbade monopoly. In Section 2 cases, the court has, again on its own initiative, drawn a distinction between coercive and innocent monopoly. The act is not meant to punish businesses that come to dominate their market passively or on their own merit, only those that intentionally dominate the market through misconduct, which generally consists of conspiratorial conduct of the kind forbidden by Section 1 of the Sherman Act, or Section 3 of the Clayton Act.

Haven't read the whole thing yet but doubt Intel would get split up.
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
76
By US federal law(shaman anti trust act) no company can control above 90% of the market. Several company have been broken up this way.Most prominent example would the attempted merge of AT&T and T-mobile. If AMD leaves, Intel has 100% monopoly over consumer computers, business, and servers. That will ring an alarm bell however you look at it. Not even Microsoft has such dominance considering Linux+Unix have a lion share of the server OS.

Why not break up Luxottica, Facebook or Monsanto then? These are REAL monopolies today and nothing happen to them, and you think anyone will do anything against Intel.
 

AMDisTheBEST

Senior member
Dec 17, 2015
682
90
61
Why not break up Luxottica, Facebook or Monsanto then? These are REAL monopolies today and nothing happen to them, and you think anyone will do anything against Intel.

Who uses facebook?
Social media is not mutually exclusive. Just because a consumer has a facebook doesn't mean he won't go on twitter.
 

Phynaz

Lifer
Mar 13, 2006
10,140
819
126
By US federal law(shaman anti trust act) no company can control above 90% of the market. Several company have been broken up this way.Most prominent example would the attempted merge of AT&T and T-mobile. If AMD leaves, Intel has 100% monopoly over consumer computers, business, and servers. That will ring an alarm bell however you look at it. Not even Microsoft has such dominance considering Linux+Unix have a lion share of the server OS.

I'm guessing you're a student misinterpreting a textbook.

Edit: Yes you are. Don't beleive everything your professor tells you.
 

SarahKerrigan

Senior member
Oct 12, 2014
735
2,035
136
By US federal law(shaman anti trust act) no company can control above 90% of the market. Several company have been broken up this way.Most prominent example would the attempted merge of AT&T and T-mobile. If AMD leaves, Intel has 100% monopoly over consumer computers, business, and servers. That will ring an alarm bell however you look at it. Not even Microsoft has such dominance considering Linux+Unix have a lion share of the server OS.

Other CPU's vendors, most notably IBM (although I wouldn't be surprised by Oracle or even Fujitsu, especially if mainframes are included), already have more server CPU market share than AMD by revenue.
 

Vesku

Diamond Member
Aug 25, 2005
3,743
28
86
Usually AMD offered quad socket platforms to offset the weak dual socket offers.

A strategy which didn't survive the changes in server software licensing from major vendors like Oracle taking into account number of cores/threads rather than per socket. I think it would be the hardest area of servers for AMD to make inroads with Zen.
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
76
Other CPU's vendors, most notably IBM (although I wouldn't be surprised by Oracle or even Fujitsu, especially if mainframes are included), already have more server CPU market share than AMD by revenue.

Oracle sells about 500MM per quarter, which is more than AMD CPU + GPU business sans console before the forecast 14% crash, IBM is way above that, selling roughly 1.6 billion per quarter in servers, storage not included. IBM has been eating a lot of share on UNIX servers because of companies that are dumping HP Integrity, and it seems their Linux venture is yielding fruits.
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
76
A strategy which didn't survive the changes in server software licensing from major vendors like Oracle taking into account number of cores/threads rather than per socket. I think it would be the hardest area of servers for AMD to make inroads with Zen.

That's the strategy Dresdenboy has been advocating all along as a path to Zen success on servers, more cores working at higher clock than Intel ones. I think they will be toast on efficiency because of higher cooling costs and as you pointed out they will get burned once you need to use per-core licensed software.

But as a cheap machine for university labs running open source software AMD might have a chance.
 

Phynaz

Lifer
Mar 13, 2006
10,140
819
126
Writing down thousands upon thousand of pages of regulations and taking control is something the feds always like to do is it not? :sneaky:
If AMD is down, i will expect intel to run into regulators soon enough.

That's only about the 1,000th time that's been posted here. Your posts are neither insightful nor original.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,027
11,606
136
Writing down thousands upon thousand of pages of regulations and taking control is something the feds always like to do is it not? :sneaky:
If AMD is down, i will expect intel to run into regulators soon enough.

No, I don't think they will. The modern US government is not interested in savaging one of its own domestic corporations, particularly not a very-successful one that many Washington insiders see as a champion of the modern American IP-based economy.

Whether or not their perceptions reflect reality, various lobbyists; think-tankers; and politicians see American firms ranging from film studios to IDMs as being a part of the overall American brain trust. That's how the US continues to make its money and justify its profligate federal spending. People invest in the government (read: buy treasuries) on the promise of future economic performance which will, at a minimum, assure proper servicing of the debt load. It's what makes treasuries "safe".

Slay a sacred cow like Intel or Apple and things get sticky. Something like that would reduce confidence in the American economy, never mind that Intel's present market dominance has (arguably) been at the expense of other American firms, like AMD; IBM; and others.

There is also the beltway-insider perception that going after an American firm rich in modern "tech" IP will open up avenues for foreign competition to destroy American joearbs. If Intel goes down, what's to stop <insertnameofChinesecompanyhere> from colluding with the Chinese government to take over the server market, the PC market, and whatever else it is Intel pwnz, effectively transferring billions of dollars in revenue out of the United States and into their own pockets.

tl;dr: the feds do not dare to slay Intel. They are afraid of what would be the consequences. Want evidence? Take a look at what the EU was willing to do to Intel over the whole OEM "bribery" thing. The Feds barely even batted an eye. If they had WANTED to nail Intel over that, they could have (see VW), even if it would have meant some creative interpretation of what amounts to anticompetitive conduct.

So, the Feds do not really care about what naughty Intel has done to poor, poor AMD in the past, nor will they notice if AMD does fold up and stop selling consumer-level CPUs on the general market. They can implode and turn into a semi-custom/embedded shop with a healthy graphics division leading the way, if they want to do so. Anti-trust? What's that?

I do not think that AMD's Q42015 results indicate that such an event will occur within the next year. I do think that AMD will be packing it up and leaving the consumer market if Zen/Zen+ does not turn things around for their CPU division sometime between now and 2019.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,197
126
There are anti-trust remedies other than breaking up a company, such as forcing Intel to license x86 on FRAND terms. That would be a nightmare scenario for Intel even without breaking it up. It would commoditize the x86 CPU business like ARM is commoditized.
Additionally, by terms of their current cross-licensing deal with AMD, either party being purchased voids the whole deal. Intel will need to renegotiate an x86-64 license with whoever buys AMD, which will almost certainly involve a reciprocal cross license from Intel, which Intel would be foolish to refuse. Intel would far prefer to only license x86 to whoever buys AMD and have just one competitor, rather than come under anti-trust scrutiny and be forced to license all comers on FRAND terms.
So the whole x86 non-transferability issue is a total red herring. If someone buys AMD, they will almost certainly get the x86 license. The fun question is what happens if Apple buys AMD, moves Macs to their own x86 silicon, but leaves Intel as the only viable x86 CPU provider for Windows. What do the anti-trust authorities do then?
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
56,551
10,171
126
So the whole x86 non-transferability issue is a total red herring. If someone buys AMD, they will almost certainly get the x86 license. The fun question is what happens if Apple buys AMD, moves Macs to their own x86 silicon, but leaves Intel as the only viable x86 CPU provider for Windows. What do the anti-trust authorities do then?

If Apple bought AMD, and started designing their own x86/x64-compatible CPUs in-house, that might actually give Intel some real competition. It would certainly spice things up.
 

Vesku

Diamond Member
Aug 25, 2005
3,743
28
86
That's the strategy Dresdenboy has been advocating all along as a path to Zen success on servers, more cores working at higher clock than Intel ones. I think they will be toast on efficiency because of higher cooling costs and as you pointed out they will get burned once you need to use per-core licensed software.

But as a cheap machine for university labs running open source software AMD might have a chance.

I guess we will see with the initial small batch of performance desktop SKUs what the power curve is like but I'm thinking server Zen will mainly be about perf/w. Edit: and core count for 1P and 2P servers.
 
Last edited:

Borealis7

Platinum Member
Oct 19, 2006
2,901
205
106
If Apple bought AMD, and started designing their own x86/x64-compatible CPUs in-house, that might actually give Intel some real competition. It would certainly spice things up.
Awful, awful idea. if that happens, we would have software that runs only on Apple CPUs, we will need Apple iMotherboards that support only Apple iRam and can be installed only in an Apple iCase.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136
Apple makes more money from ARM based devices than x86. And since x86 volumes continue shrinking each year, nobody else would like to get evolved with x86 CPUs in the near future.
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,956
1,595
136
This is what Lisa said about performance:

"Hans Mosesmann
Okay and then as a follow up, what kind of performance point should we look at your initial Zen in the server space, is it Zeon E3 class type products or E5s or maybe you can help with some granularity there if you can?

Lisa Su
Yes, we believe that we'll be able to address let's call it you know 80% of the server CPU market with our Zen class of products. So that's a very high end but you know really the meat of the market."

Its pretty clear to me its nothing about socket but about performance - and it doesnt indicate wether its low or the high end of the spectrum imo - even though she use the word "very high end". If anything its on the high side.

...


The answer was a follow up to this:

"Hans Mosesmann
Hey Lisa, a clarification on Zen you said you had some design wins already on the server side of that roadmap. Can you give us a sense on what kind of server wins and what kind of an opportunity you see in terms of market share for the next several years as you come back to the market?

Lisa Su
Yes, so Hans, overall the Zen design win, we have been engaged very early on with you know large OEM and cloud providers on the Zen design point and the platforms that would be useful for Zen. So we have closed our first design win, we are working you know very closely with these OEM partners to make sure that they bring up their platforms concurrently with our own design validation and testing. I think the main message is we are on track with the schedule that we previously discussed in terms of sampling this year. We will introduce first in desktop and so we are having conversations with some of the PC OEMs about getting their platforms ready for desktop and then we will go into enterprise server first full year in 2017. "
 
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