AMD Q415 results

[pablo87]

At the time zen hits servers is well into 2017 and the market is full of a72 plus perf arm cores and established new players like qcom samsung and amazon. All have their own core. Ares is on the footstep.

Lowend servermarket is then red ocean.

Now if amd brings something that is 80% of the lower part they imo get stuck in a very bad place between a lot of money, strategic long term interests, and perhaps to much Intel capacity.
Thats not a nice place to be. Not for anything and not for higher margins.

Amd needs to partner up. What are they waiting for?
The solution is not on product side. Its a pipe dream even if zen is very very good with solid ipc and excellent perf/w.

Are they waiting for falling oil prices to do their job?

Krumme, pretty much. There are less and less fish left in the ocean, they are further and further away from the port, and their boat is leaking more and more!!!

 

[pablo87]

They still have 270MM to withdrawn from the revolving credit line (backed by receivables), so I think liquidity won't be a concern at least until Q2, and this under a duress scenario.

The last two quarters respite of their CPU/GPU business basically ensured that the company will live to the point of releasing Zen on desktops, beyond that only after evaluating Zen performance.

Well if Zen is anything like Carrizo, I won't hold my breathe.

 

[dark zero]

Seems that AMD will go only Graphics in that way... Even only ARM and Graphics... They had ARM. They had good Graphics... They should have move to the phone market.

 

[mrmt]

Well if Zen is anything like Carrizo, I won't hold my breathe.

I don't think Zen will be as bad as any Bulldozer chip. Bulldozer is one of the most disastrous CPU architectures ever built, it would be quite a feat to release another disaster of that magnitude.

But my guess is that Zen will be too little too late for AMD CPU business as far as servers and notebooks are concerned.

 

[csbin]

 

[ShintaiDK]

You forgot to post the full picture. ~15% of the stock is shorted. So guess who is buying now to cover their short positions after milking the emotional buyers yet again.

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/amd/short-interest

 

[Arachnotronic]

Cool bro, did you buy some shares before this big run?

 

[AnandThenMan]

Cool bro, did you buy some shares before this big run?

I did, this is about the 4th time I've done so. AMD shares are the best out there at least that I know of. It creeps up to around $3 then crashes and the cycle starts all over. So you haters can hate on the company all you want but you are missing out on a huge huge financial pay day.

 

[ShintaiDK]

I did, this is about the 4th time I've done so. AMD shares are the best out there at least that I know of. It creeps up to around $3 then crashes and the cycle starts all over. So you haters can hate on the company all you want but you are missing out on a huge huge financial pay day.

Why buy stocks when you can short? *hint hint*

But I agree, its one of the most manipulated stocks there is.

 

[frozentundra123456]

I did, this is about the 4th time I've done so. AMD shares are the best out there at least that I know of. It creeps up to around $3 then crashes and the cycle starts all over. So you haters can hate on the company all you want but you are missing out on a huge huge financial pay day.

Highly volatile stock prices, what a great recommendation for a companies products.

 

[Arachnotronic]

I did, this is about the 4th time I've done so. AMD shares are the best out there at least that I know of. It creeps up to around $3 then crashes and the cycle starts all over. So you haters can hate on the company all you want but you are missing out on a huge huge financial pay day.

Just curious, in what dollar amounts do you purchase AMD shares? Are we talking about risking a couple of grand or are you throwing six figures at the thing?

 

[AnandThenMan]

Just curious, in what dollar amounts do you purchase AMD shares?

That's something I don't discuss I consider it bad karma.

 

[Arachnotronic]

That's something I don't discuss I consider it bad karma.

Well if you're going to be telling people that AMD stock is a slam dunk and that we're all idiots for not hopping on board the ol' Gravy Train, you should be giving us a sense of how much conviction you have in your strategy.

 

[Dresdenboy]

Well if Zen is anything like Carrizo, I won't hold my breathe.

If that would be the case, I'd join you.

 

[monstercameron]

Pretty much - I wanted one and couldn't find at BestBuy or Frys. Which to me speaks volumes about what we should expect from AMD in the future.

And ive bought 2 carrizo notebooks in the past 3 months...

 

[Dresdenboy]

You forgot to post the full picture. ~15% of the stock is shorted. So guess who is buying now to cover their short positions after milking the emotional buyers yet again.

And what makes you sure, that this is not a typical fallacy? The only reason is covering? Why don't they wait for $1 after this ER? Have you seen how many shares are held by institutions? One 10% change in one of the holdings might pour millions of shares on the market in half an hour, or vice versa. I've seen lots of such intraday action. Further possible reason: buy stop triggering.

The safest "investment" time horizon I see is minutes to hours after some event/trigger. Increasing time spans also increases exposure to news effects (market/sector/stock) in both directions.

Edit: The reason for the move is uncertainty, or high volatility causes high volatility.
http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...ce=yahoo&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

BTW NVDA has also been heavily bought during the same time (few minutes before 10am). Not INTC. So the AMD coverers were also short NVDA? Pair trading looks different.

 

[ShintaiDK]

And what makes you sure, that this is not a typical fallacy? The only reason is covering? Why don't they wait for $1 after this ER? Have you seen how many shares are held by institutions? One 10% change in one of the holdings might pour millions of shares on the market in half an hour, or vice versa. I've seen lots of such intraday action. Further possible reason: buy stop triggering.

The safest "investment" time horizon I see is minutes to hours after some event/trigger. Increasing time spans also increases exposure to news effects (market/sector/stock) in both directions.

Edit: The reason for the move is uncertainty, or high volatility causes high volatility.
http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...ce=yahoo&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

BTW NVDA has also been heavily bought during the same time (few minutes before 10am). Not INTC. So the AMD coverers were also short NVDA? Pair trading looks different.

You short with a timeline. Its a bet, that how it works.

I remember your claims about AMDs stock, looking back. How do you feel about it now?

AMD ~15% shorted.
Nvidia ~8% shorted.
Intel ~1.7% shorted.

 

[Dresdenboy]

You short with a timeline. Its a bet, that how it works.

I remember your claims about AMDs stock, looking back. How do you feel about it now?

AMD ~15% shorted.
Nvidia ~8% shorted.
Intel ~1.7% shorted.

Timeline? As time target, there are also profit targets, stops, trailing stops, discretionary covering actions, etc. Do you refer to some special statement by me?

Shorting also depends on many factors. It's no mechanic rule applied by one single trader. Put in perspective:

Put into perspective - what's the worth of the shorted shares (needs to be seen to relative moves):
Intel (blue chip, bought by many mutual funds, 401k, etc.): 82.07M shares short = $2.44B worth
AMD (short term traders toy ): 120.44M shares short = $0.25B
NVDA (also showing funny price action): 46.22M short = $1.29B !

Now watch this (http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=37694403&postcount=50):


vs.



Price level at the beginning of the move, it's high, retreat. I'd say: very interesting.

 

[krumme]

I dont understand the concern about liquidity. Its way overblown imo.

We are talking a company that have lost money each year for the last what 35 years. Except a few happy years and a few bs years with wrong reporting of real situation.

Such a company doesnt live for profit but what expected future profit/risk is. Fine. No probs for those who gamble against 35 years of history. But here comes the catch:

Mubadala is bank for amd and have been for years + Add have the control of wsa in reality it seems= That also mean investing in amd is just as well paying mubadala cash as mubada owns a large part of amd. Seems stupid to me. Giving money away for free and then to add to the pain to someone that cant run any business.

 

[ShintaiDK]

You should check how much they have sold off over the time. And how many times they just created new shares.

Mubadala cares nothing for AMD. For them AMD is a milking cow (WSA).

 

[krumme]

Considering the crappy bd arch and the market situation the results seems really fine to me - and have been for that last 2 years.
Amd have not been better run than it is now. Its under control. The best ceo for amd it seems to me.
One can critizize the changes she brought as ceo and earlier under cowboy roy was to little.
I still need to see more market focus - but carizo still seems to me as the best move ever on their cpu line. 15w mobile soc made from a crappy throughput oriented server cpu that burns w like nothing else and produced on old 28nm process. Beeing able to sell that at all is a damn miracle.

 

[ShintaiDK]

The last 10 years they sold their fabs, sold their offices. Now selling their packaging. Got 1.25B$ in settlement. And its pretty much all gone. While they got a good load of debt.

If you think AMD haven't been better run than it is now....

They ended 2015 as a sub 4B company and is on a fast track to be a sub 3B in 2016.

 

[Fjodor2001]

http://wccftech.com/amd-zen-summit-ridge-launch-q4-2016/

AMD Confirms: Zen Based Summit Ridge FX CPUs Launching at the End of 2016 – Bringing 40% IPC Improvement as Planned

In their recent earnings call for the fiscal year 2015, AMD confirmed that their Zen based Summit Ridge FX CPUs will be launching in late 2016.
[...]
Talking about the future plans of their company, AMD’s CEO, Lisa Su, mentioned that their Zen based CPUs are well on their way to development and are aiming to achieve IPC leverage greater than 40% compared to their current generation Excavator cores found on the Carrizo processors.

 

[krumme]

You should check how much they have sold off over the time. And how many times they just created new shares.

Mubadala cares nothing for AMD. For them AMD is a milking cow (WSA).

Excactly. As i said they exist for anticipated future profit vs risk.

The idea that this is the end is plain wrong. Its nearly as old as amd.

Go back and read about the demise of amd. Its far more popular than even the delution of shares.There is ofcource some limitation because of ip rights but from a technological perspective there is tons of value in amd. The problem is the business execution and the sad connection to mubadala.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Excactly. As i said they exist for anticipated future profit vs risk.

The idea that this is the end is plain wrong. Its nearly as old as amd.

Go back and read about the demise of amd. Its far more popular than even the delution of shares.There is ofcource some limitation because of ip rights but from a technological perspective there is tons of value in amd. The problem is the business execution and the sad connection to mubadala.

What more can AMD sell now besides finishing the packaging deal and sell/spinoff the newly RTG group? Where is the next cash infusion coming from? If we say that Zen isn't going to change the game.