AMD Q415 results

[Fjodor2001]

Where is the next cash infusion coming from?

Zen desktop and server CPUs, Zen based APUs, Zen based APUs with HBM2, next gen consoles, HBM2 based GFX cards, ARM based servers, ...

 

[krumme]

What more can AMD sell now besides finishing the packaging deal and sell/spinoff the newly RTG group? Where is the next cash infusion coming from? If we say that Zen isn't going to change the game.

As i wrote:
The bank of Mubadala.
Ofcource who else is going to move the gf wafers.
Gf (mubadala) hope for zen more than anyone. Gf = money burning fast.
They need to prove themselves in spades before the new consoles is going to get produced.
Amd cash infusion somewhere q3 16-q2 17 is nothing compared to the risk at stake at gf.
When zen hits ground q4 we can have the talk.

 

[CHADBOGA]

Won't the Q1 16, Q2 16 & Q3 16 results reflect AMD being at their greatest product line up disadvantage to Intel in their history?

 

[Ajay]

Wasn't Mubadala trying to sell GF - or did that end with the IBM purchase?

 

[AMDisTheBEST]

tl;dr: the feds do not dare to slay Intel. They are afraid of what would be the consequences. Want evidence? Take a look at what the EU was willing to do to Intel over the whole OEM "bribery" thing. The Feds barely even batted an eye. If they had WANTED to nail Intel over that, they could have (see VW), even if it would have meant some creative interpretation of what amounts to anticompetitive conduct.

The persecutors need to file more lawsuits then :/

 

[AMDisTheBEST]

AMD still has enough cash reserve to take on a few more years of net loss if it needs to. Its major debt obligations won't be due until 2019.

 

[mrmt]

http://wccftech.com/amd-zen-summit-ridge-launch-q4-2016/

Lisa Su didn't say that.

 

[mrmt]

Wasn't Mubadala trying to sell GF - or did that end with the IBM purchase?

That news appeared AFTER the IBM purchase.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Won't the Q1 16, Q2 16 & Q3 16 results reflect AMD being at their greatest product line up disadvantage to Intel in their history?

Not according to Lisa Su, but she says a lot of, um, interesting things.

 

[raghu78]

AMD will have a difficult 2016. But they will be able to get Zen and Polaris out which will decide their fate. If Zen fails the company is done. CPU architectures are much harder to design and get right. So there is no room for error any more. Bulldozer was a disaster which almost killed the company. AMD have been limping along for the past 4 years.

If Zen is competitive then AMD have a bright future as the foundries are closing the process gap against Intel.

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...the-troubling-story-behind-intels-chip-m.aspx

TSMC 7nm will be in production in early 2018 and could provide a golden opportunity for AMD to compete with Intel on a competitive process node (TSMC 7nm might have slight density lead while Intel might have slight transistor perf lead) against Intel making it their best chance to succeed. I would love to see AMD Zen+ server products manufactured at TSMC 7nm fight it out against Intel 10nm Cannonlake server CPUs.

 

[DrMrLordX]

There are anti-trust remedies other than breaking up a company, such as forcing Intel to license x86 on FRAND terms. That would be a nightmare scenario for Intel even without breaking it up. It would commoditize the x86 CPU business like ARM is commoditized.

The Feds defintely won't bite on a remedy like that. Intel is important to the political class as a major holder/producer of valued (and exclusive) IP. Compromising their IP would ruin everything in the eyes of the beltway insider.

 

[MrTeal]

Begging for money at the foot of the Burj Dubai was likely easier before oil blew through $30 with no sign of recovery.

 

[Ajay]

That news appeared AFTER the IBM purchase.

Thanks, that makes more sense. Get a node development team and then try to sell it. Still, who would buy, especially with as the large IDMs/Fabs cornering more of the market?

 

[AMDisTheBEST]

The Feds defintely won't bite on a remedy like that. Intel is important to the political class as a major holder/producer of valued (and exclusive) IP. Compromising their IP would ruin everything in the eyes of the beltway insider.

Tell that to the Democrats lol.

 

[CHADBOGA]

Not according to Lisa Su, but she says a lot of, um, interesting things.

What is your take?

 

[Arachnotronic]

What is your take?

I think you are absolutely right. AMD's current PC processor lineup is just plain bad and compared to Skylake/Kabylake it's probably the worst it's been in years (and that's saying something). The only thing that could save them is Polaris, but we don't know what NV has up its sleeve or when it will unleash it, so it's hard to really make a call on competitive positioning there at this time.

AMD needs to get to Zen and then we will know if this company lives or dies.

 

[AtenRa]

AMD will have a difficult 2016.

H1 2016 will be difficult, im predicting they will lose ~100M per Quarter. But then H2 2016 will be very good. They will have new Semi-Custom orders, new 14nm GPUs Polaris, Desktop AM4 APUs and Laptop and at the end of the year ZEN launch.

2017 will bring ZEN Servers and ZEN APUs for both Desktop and Laptops.

TSMC 7nm will be in production in early 2018 and could provide a golden opportunity for AMD to compete with Intel on a competitive process node (TSMC 7nm might have slight density lead while Intel might have slight transistor perf lead) against Intel making it their best chance to succeed. I would love to see AMD Zen+ server products manufactured at TSMC 7nm fight it out against Intel 10nm Cannonlake server CPUs.

I dont expect AMD to use another node after 14nm for at least 3 years, that means not before Q1 2020.

 

[CHADBOGA]

I think you are absolutely right. AMD's current PC processor lineup is just plain bad and compared to Skylake/Kabylake it's probably the worst it's been in years (and that's saying something). The only thing that could save them is Polaris, but we don't know what NV has up its sleeve or when it will unleash it, so it's hard to really make a call on competitive positioning there at this time.

AMD needs to get to Zen and then we will know if this company lives or dies.

The reason why I am thinking about this, is how potent the Skylake i3's are, with Intel obviously further refining HT.

Whilst in the past I might have been reluctant to recommend an i3 for someone who was somewhat budget conscious, this is the first i3 that I think I would recommend to such a person.

 

[krumme]

Won't the Q1 16, Q2 16 & Q3 16 results reflect AMD being at their greatest product line up disadvantage to Intel in their history?

Naa. Its the wrong perspective imo. The tech amd have today is far, far stronger than in K6 and pre days.
When we go back to pre K5 they were just producing at a licence from Intel. They were nobody at that time.

And they were burning money far faster than they are today at the years just before BD and after. There was a lot of lipstick in the years that preceded BD as i can tell.

People either got a short memory or are young boys repeating this death scenario each Q. And i can tell some of them is young, so that perhaps explains it. If the same people continue this stuff they could be in for some repeating. But hey history shows nearly all company have to fall at some time so they can claim the rights then

Even if/when AMD go bankrupt some day, there is today technology worth billions that is released to the market. We will then get the same tech, just under new names. The same people will probably contitnue to working on the stuff whereever it might be.

 

[ShintaiDK]

It cant really be worth more than AMD today tho.

RTG is pretty much the last thing worth anything on its own in AMD.

 

[Abwx]

Have theses been posted.?.

Rest is here :

http://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/AMD-verschlankt-die-Prozessor-Roadmap-3082484.html

 

[Fjodor2001]

So the slide clearly confirms that AMD Zen is scheduled for a 2016 release according to the current roadmap.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Lisa Su didn't say that.

What was is you mean Lisa Su did not say?

 

[Balt4r]

any news about bristol ridge ?

 

[Dresdenboy]

Begging for money at the foot of the Burj Dubai was likely easier before oil blew through $30 with no sign of recovery.

Costs for a barrel are ~$1.80 as I heard from an engineer there.

But wasn't creating GF part of a diversification strategy (next to automotive and other industries)? How much of it has AMD roots - 20%?

any news about bristol ridge ?

A few test results leaked on the web, same for Stoney Ridge.