AMD Quarterly Report Discussion Thread

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Centauri

Golden Member
Dec 10, 2002
1,655
51
91
^I wouldn't even make a post about a stock I owned if I only owned enough of it for a massive swing in either direction to affect my net worth by about $20.
 

SketchMaster

Diamond Member
Feb 23, 2005
3,100
149
116
Ha! Yeah, it was for shines and giggles tottaly. If the stock blew up, I'd have enough for a few drinks. If it tanked, I'd loose about as much as I would have spent on drinks.
 
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witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
3,899
193
106
Where has Intel said ANYTHING about production chips being based on Carbon Nanotubes?

They have mentioned it in a 2011 presentation as a possibility in the future, but CNTs will be for the next decade.

They don't even mention it in this slide with numerous technologies:

 

hungtran

Member
Jan 7, 2014
75
0
0
Well, I hold over 200,000 shares now at about $4.35 cost basis from last May through this year. So yeah, it's depressing. May have to sell at anything at or above $3.70 tomorrow. I'll probably lose $150K, but enough is enough after holding this for over one year.
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
59
91
Well, I hold over 200,000 shares now at about $4.35 cost basis from last May through this year. So yeah, it's depressing. May have to sell at anything at or above $3.70 tomorrow. I'll probably lose $150K, but enough is enough after holding this for over one year.

Why on earth would anyone put nearly a million bucks into AMD shares given the history of that company's treatment of its shareholders with successive stock dilutions and earnings disappointments?

Your investment strategy baffles my mind, surely you were advised or could have sought professional advice on less risky investment opportunities for your near $1m?
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
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Why on earth would anyone put nearly a million bucks into AMD shares given the history of that company's treatment of its shareholders with successive stock dilutions and earnings disappointments?

Your investment strategy baffles my mind, surely you were advised or could have sought professional advice on less risky investment opportunities for your near $1m?

AMD is a stock that can make savvy traders very rich, but it is a very poor long-term investment. The stock was irrationally run up into earnings on Intel's results (even though Intel's results spelled bad news for AMD's results), and now it is simply giving up those gains.
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
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Ha! Yeah, it was for shines and giggles tottaly. If the stock blew up, I'd have enough for a few drinks. If it tanked, I'd loose about as much as I would have spent on drinks.

I'd imagine that commissions on 40 shares would significantly impact your break-even point.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,167
3,862
136
Why on earth would anyone put nearly a million bucks into AMD shares given the history of that company's treatment of its shareholders with successive stock dilutions and earnings disappointments?

Your investment strategy baffles my mind, surely you were advised or could have sought professional advice on less risky investment opportunities for your near $1m?

You can, undoubtly, i made some good money on AMD a decade ago...

Since, i abandonned the US market because i live in the Eurozone and i dont want to bother with the $/€ parity, but i m still trading such a dreadfull stock in the EU and it works very well.

Such stocks require a dynamic management if you want to hold a long term position so you have to sell and buy back to take advantage of the volatility that otherwise will kill you.

If he wants to hold his position he has to be here every day , sell if the trend is bear, and then buy back a biggest quantity of stocks for the same amount of $ , if the trend is bullish he has to try to sell at the higher points and buy back on recoveries, that s the only way to win with very volatile stocks, of course a step further would be to not only sell but to short sell on the same row before buying back twice and be long again, but i wont advise one to do such an agressive strategy if he has not a formal training and accurate knowledge of decision tools.
 

hungtran

Member
Jan 7, 2014
75
0
0
Yes, I'm not completely clueless on fundamentals having attained a CFA desg in the past. The problem with AMD is not even the poor financials, but it's become a trading vehicle rather than a investment. More investors lose hope everytime there is a dump so the range becomes progressively lower unless there is a breakout. AMD tried to break out of 4.65 but the ER has set the trading range lower again. Sooner or later, investors are going to dump this stock for good.
 

pTmdfx

Member
Feb 23, 2014
85
0
0
They talked about the potential for further opex reductions during the next 12-24 months. I do not know how they can reconcile this with the claims that they will be moving to the 14/16nm FinFET nodes in 2016 (which is still fairly aggressive relative to the other fabless companies). I just don't see how they can afford to keep pace.
"We need the money to do the transition aggressively for the company's competence. So NOOOOO MOAR OpEx cut but more or less flat throughout the year.", seemingly implied. But I didn't remember any lines in the transcript of this question-answer pair. Did I miss something?
 
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gammaray

Senior member
Jul 30, 2006
859
17
81
i never understood in the first place why AMD shares neared 5$ a few days ago...It's unbelievable they are still in business after 10 years (maybe more) of non-profit...

i personnally could not live without making any money for 10 years! maybe i could sell shares of my house at a rip off price?
 

RussianSensation

Elite Member
Sep 5, 2003
19,458
765
126
Given how profitable the 2 key competitors of AMD are (gorilla Intel) and very innovative visionary NV, it is great for us that AMD is still alive after the double Phenom--> Bulldozer bombs and 2900/3800 series. Thankfully they are at least still competing on the desktop GPU side. Let's hope strong sales of consoles continue so AMD can survive to lower nodes to try and regain some market share with APUs and 16/20nm GPUs.

Let's face it, things will be far worse for is if AMD stops competing in the GPU space. At least right now NV can't just rest and is forced to innovate. On the CPU side things have significantly slowed down.
 

Homeles

Platinum Member
Dec 9, 2011
2,580
0
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Let's face it, things will be far worse for is if AMD stops competing in the GPU space. At least right now NV can't just rest and is forced to innovate. On the CPU side things have significantly slowed down.
I couldn't disagree more.

Like Intel, Nvidia has enough competition elsewhere to ensure that they don't slack off.
 

USER8000

Golden Member
Jun 23, 2012
1,542
780
136
I couldn't disagree more.

Like Intel, Nvidia has enough competition elsewhere to ensure that they don't slack off.

What you mean VIA and Matrox??

Their add-in cards are not even performance related.

It would be a disaster for gamers if AMD stop competing in the windows graphics space. Nvidia would have zero competition,and even Intel's competition in IGPs,is as much against AMD as it is against Nvidia. How convenient that the moment AMD starts improving IGPs,Intel starts to do the same.

Plus 11 years of competition between AMD/ATI and Nvidia every year,puts paid to the idea Nvidia does not see AMD as a competitor,if not their main one.

Look at what happened when ATI crapped over Nvidia with the 9000 series,or Nvidia over AMD when the latter had the 2000 series. Yeah,we saw the responses.
 
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Lonyo

Lifer
Aug 10, 2002
21,939
6
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AMD’s groundbreaking Mantle API, which creates more immersive experiences that take fuller advantage of modern APUs and GPUs to deliver console-like experiences

What a great highlight. You can use your AMD GPU to get a console-like experience.

Having said that, they did actually kind of almost make a profit. The reason they made a loss was because they lost money buying back their own debt, which they replaced with debt at a lower interest rate.
If they hadn't bought back their own debt to refinance at a lower interest rate, they would have made a profit in GAAP terms as well as non-GAAP terms. So yeah, they do seem to be at breakeven at $1.4b/quarter. Not that it helps that much since it's still only breakeven.
 
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RussianSensation

Elite Member
Sep 5, 2003
19,458
765
126
I couldn't disagree more.

Like Intel, Nvidia has enough competition elsewhere to ensure that they don't slack off.

And which companies are pushing NV in the mobile and desktop discrete GPU PC space? It is not Intel that's for sure. Why is NV trying to get GTX880 out the door this year? The only company which truly pushes Nv to innovate in the laptop and desktop discrete space above $100 is AMD. If you want the same stagnation at even higher prices in the GPU space like we have in the CPU space, then sure AMD doesn't matter.

NV's 3D Vision Surround, improved AF filtering, SKUs with higher amounts of VRAM, NV's investments into GeForce experience, PhysX, TXAA = all because of AMD.
 

Homeles

Platinum Member
Dec 9, 2011
2,580
0
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What you mean VIA and Matrox??

Their add-in cards are not even performance related.
Why would I be talking about them?
And which companies are pushing NV in the mobile and desktop discrete GPU PC space? It is not Intel that's for sure. Why is NV trying to get GTX880 out the door this year? The only company which truly pushes Nv to innovate in the laptop and desktop discrete space above $100 is AMD. If you want the same stagnation at even higher prices in the GPU space like we have in the CPU space, then sure AMD doesn't matter.

NV's 3D Vision Surround, improved AF filtering, SKUs with higher amounts of VRAM, NV's investments into GeForce experience, PhysX, TXAA = all because of AMD.
Okay, so I'll concede that I agree with your initial statement -- things would be worse off. It wouldn't be the end of the world, though.

There would certainly be relaxed pricing. That's a given. But Nvidia is still going to run into the issue where they have to compete with themselves. If they want the most profit, they're going to need to continue to innovate, pushing the image quality bubble forward, so developers make more intensive games that need more intensive hardware.

They have quite a bit of competition, actually. They have Qualcomm, ARM, Imagination Technologies, Intel...

They have every reason not to slow down their architectural development, even in a world without AMD.

I'd hope that even if AMD were to go under, their GPU division would be spun off, or bought out. There's no doubt that they're a benefit to consumers. Life would move on without them, though.
 

TrulyUncouth

Senior member
Jul 16, 2013
213
0
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I will agree with your second point, I think even if AMD went under tomorrow the graphics division would live on.

However, I think your first point that they would still compete with themselves is nuts. They have already shown an easy way to take advantage of no competition. All they have to do is release a new generation but only bring out a reduced size core while charging flagship prices for it.

Why would they ever need to release an aggressively sized core again unless they had another large GPU competitor to go against. And the ARM GPU makers are not competition except on Tegra-size GPUs. They could always make a great GPU for mobile, then only scale it up enough to beat last-gen 10-20% on desktop.

Why would I be talking about them?

Okay, so I'll concede that I agree with your initial statement -- things would be worse off. It wouldn't be the end of the world, though.

There would certainly be relaxed pricing. That's a given. But Nvidia is still going to run into the issue where they have to compete with themselves. If they want the most profit, they're going to need to continue to innovate, pushing the image quality bubble forward, so developers make more intensive games that need more intensive hardware.

They have quite a bit of competition, actually. They have Qualcomm, ARM, Imagination Technologies, Intel...

They have every reason not to slow down their architectural development, even in a world without AMD.

I'd hope that even if AMD were to go under, their GPU division would be spun off, or bought out. There's no doubt that they're a benefit to consumers. Life would move on without them, though.
 

Homeles

Platinum Member
Dec 9, 2011
2,580
0
0
However, I think your first point that they would still compete with themselves is nuts. They have already shown an easy way to take advantage of no competition. All they have to do is release a new generation but only bring out a reduced size core while charging flagship prices for it.
The HPC market would still have demand for a ~500mm2 GPU. There, Nvidia definitely does have competition from Intel's Xeon Phi. The Phi doesn't compete with the graphics side of things, of course, but I don't see why Nvidia wouldn't continue to sell a monster GPU to consumers and the like.
Why would they ever need to release an aggressively sized core again unless they had another large GPU competitor to go against. And the ARM GPU makers are not competition except on Tegra-size GPUs. They could always make a great GPU for mobile, then only scale it up enough to beat last-gen 10-20% on desktop.
Their sales would plummet if they did that, though. This isn't the oil industry, back when Standard Oil was king -- people replace GPUs because they want to, not because they need to, in most cases. And if performance stagnated that much, developers wouldn't be pushing the graphics envelope very hard, further reducing sales for Nvidia.
 
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RussianSensation

Elite Member
Sep 5, 2003
19,458
765
126
And if performance stagnated that much, developers wouldn't be pushing the graphics envelope very hard, further reducing sales for Nvidia.

Which developers care about NV or AMD GPUs? I can only think of a few (DICE, CDPR) games: Crysis 1/3, Witcher 2, Metro games, and BF4. Everyone else develops for consoles in mind. Look at Watch Dogs. Even Witcher 3 will be made to try and hit a similar experience on PS4/XB1 and PC, with PC having a couple extras such as Ultra settings and AA modes.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2014-the-witcher-3-tech-analysis

People don't want to admit it but it is generally next generation consoles that force adoption of new game engines faster and a push for higher level of graphics. It was mainly Crytek that was always interested in pushing PC hardware and look how that worked out for them. Without Crytek, it will be games such as Uncharted 4, next God of War and other exclusives that will push gaming graphics the most; as well as cross-platform titles like Witcher 3, development cost of which requires the distribution on consoles for the studio to exist.

That brings us to another point: None of the console makers chose Intel or NV products inside the consoles. That would mean without AMD, we would never have PS4/XB1 as powerful at the same price. With Intel/Nv parts, the consoles would be a lot more expensive which would hurt the industry.

Even though PC gamers hardly buy APUs or FX CPUs, for consoles the APU design is most cost effective; and right now no one provides a better CPU+GPU custom APU package like AMD. I don't see NV doing it in the next 5 years. Maybe Intel will catch up but their IGP performance is horrible compared to the custom chip in PS4.

The side effect of AMD going bankrupt would be felt not only by PC gamers.
 
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Erenhardt

Diamond Member
Dec 1, 2012
3,251
105
101
There would certainly be relaxed pricing. That's a given. But Nvidia is still going to run into the issue where they have to compete with themselves. If they want the most profit, they're going to need to continue to innovate, pushing the image quality bubble forward, so developers make more intensive games that need more intensive hardware.

*flips tables*
No. They would simply start abandoning last years gen. The support would be only for current generation. The hardware would stagnate and the only differences would be in drivers.

Just like intel - you would get one new command/feature/clock bump per generation and everyone who doesn't upgrade would be screwed.

Relaxed pricing... I guess one could call that during gtx600 era. That would be blatant shafting your consumers. Just look what happens when one have a slight advantage over another...

There is nothing like competing with yourself - unless you talk about competing for the highest margins possible.
 

Atreidin

Senior member
Mar 31, 2011
464
27
86
I'd rather Nvidia compete with AMD, even if it you consider it to be competing with itself already. Extra competition is only better for me, and to think otherwise is daft.
 

jhu

Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
11,918
9
81
Bought 40 shares of AMD @4.15 for a fun short sale on the off chance they'd pull a win. I totally missed my chance to sell at 4.75 and was too annoyed buy the MASSIVE drop in AMD to even care that my ford shares were kicking butt.

Not looking forward to watching that stock drop for the next few days, best I can hope is to reach 4 again and eat the loss; otherwise, wait for the next Q rush and sell off.

OMG! You could have gotten a pair of Xeon X5650s with that money! What a waste.
 
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