Notwithstanding that we don't know what's really going on inside AMD, and that the Fitch's of this world may be privy to information we don't have, my own observations are as follows:
- the entire loss for 2012 was due to the WSA with Global Foundries, consisting of the exclusivity amendment, the $100MM LLano write off, and the settlement relating to the take or pay shortfall for 2012. Additionally, the WSA calls for purchases of $1B from GF in 2013. If there is any loss relating to GF in 2013, it will be minimal.
- AMD has reduced their cost structure significantly, 25% purportedly and on this basis, their operating break-even is either $1B quarterly at 45% margin or $1.3B at 35% (Q4 was at 39%). They are in good shape there.
- Kabini is a major upgrade on Brazos and will provide a revenue and profitability uplift.
- Tablet is growing and has become a huge market, AMD will have a competitive offering in this space which should provide an uplift, albeit a small one.
- While the PC market I expect will continue declining, AMD has a nice console business coming that should provide an overall uplift and is net new business with limited cannibalization.
- there are many markets where AMD's share is at a low point, the probability of further shares losses is less than gains.
- AMD's competitor, Intel, isn't in great shape either so while there is always an incentive to take share from AMD, the room to maneuvre on price is a lot less. As a matter of fact, $700MM less debt and $700MM more cash and AMD's cash balances and debt levels would look exactly like intel's, (only 1/10th the size). Also, due to Intel's massive capex, cash flow is more like $1.5B per quarter which means a $2.2B drop in quarterly revenue (which over time could happen given the state of the PC industry) and they start actually bleeding cash BEFORE dividends and stock buybacks.
Personally, I never trust the information from those agencies. They know their #s but they don't know the industry. And they completely missed the boat on the MBS debacle...
I've been on the record of saying AMD is uninvestable and I still think so given the WSA and the BoD's and Management's track record, but at this point there's more upside than downside, no question.