AMD shut out of the debt market

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Gigantopithecus

Diamond Member
Dec 14, 2004
7,665
0
71
What would AMD again from a restructuring? It isn't debt or union agreements that are killing the operation, but inability to design and sell profitable products. Sure, they could get rid of GLF, but who would manufacture for them in the short term if not GLF?

Focus on their strengths (APUs, GPUs, perhaps server chips) at the expense of their weaknesses (CPUs)...? IOW, cutting off the diseased limbs to save the body.
 

Piroko

Senior member
Jan 10, 2013
905
79
91
Personal opinion:
If Fitch would have actively followed the market they'd have lowered AMDs rating a year ago. AMDs current plan for the near future is more safe and sound than it was a year ago even if it's still a gamble.
Thus, degrading their rating now and by this amount seems much more like a screw up by Fitch than anything else.
 

ViRGE

Elite Member, Moderator Emeritus
Oct 9, 1999
31,516
167
106
Lets not turn this into an AMD vs. Intel thread. Seriously.
This is good advice, heed it. So far this thread has gone fine and you guys have even corrected yourselves, which I appreciate.

-Thanks
ViRGE
 

pablo87

Senior member
Nov 5, 2012
374
0
0
Notwithstanding that we don't know what's really going on inside AMD, and that the Fitch's of this world may be privy to information we don't have, my own observations are as follows:

- the entire loss for 2012 was due to the WSA with Global Foundries, consisting of the exclusivity amendment, the $100MM LLano write off, and the settlement relating to the take or pay shortfall for 2012. Additionally, the WSA calls for purchases of $1B from GF in 2013. If there is any loss relating to GF in 2013, it will be minimal.

- AMD has reduced their cost structure significantly, 25% purportedly and on this basis, their operating break-even is either $1B quarterly at 45% margin or $1.3B at 35% (Q4 was at 39%). They are in good shape there.

- Kabini is a major upgrade on Brazos and will provide a revenue and profitability uplift.

- Tablet is growing and has become a huge market, AMD will have a competitive offering in this space which should provide an uplift, albeit a small one.

- While the PC market I expect will continue declining, AMD has a nice console business coming that should provide an overall uplift and is net new business with limited cannibalization.

- there are many markets where AMD's share is at a low point, the probability of further shares losses is less than gains.

- AMD's competitor, Intel, isn't in great shape either so while there is always an incentive to take share from AMD, the room to maneuvre on price is a lot less. As a matter of fact, $700MM less debt and $700MM more cash and AMD's cash balances and debt levels would look exactly like intel's, (only 1/10th the size). Also, due to Intel's massive capex, cash flow is more like $1.5B per quarter which means a $2.2B drop in quarterly revenue (which over time could happen given the state of the PC industry) and they start actually bleeding cash BEFORE dividends and stock buybacks.

Personally, I never trust the information from those agencies. They know their #s but they don't know the industry. And they completely missed the boat on the MBS debacle...

I've been on the record of saying AMD is uninvestable and I still think so given the WSA and the BoD's and Management's track record, but at this point there's more upside than downside, no question.
 

Ferzerp

Diamond Member
Oct 12, 1999
6,438
107
106
Not an area I know nearly as much about, hence the question. From my limited understanding, I thought their multicore monsters were useful in certain scenarios?

They have less than 5% of the x86 server market at this point, and it's going down and not up.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
If AMD goes under, I would imagine both Intel and Nvidia wanting to buy them out for the sake of their GPU patents. Intel probably wants them, and Nvidia probably doesn't want Intel to have them.

It might actually end in a concortium style umbrella company. Just like the latest IP purchase. Basicly free IP for all.
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
76
Focus on their strengths (APUs, GPUs, perhaps server chips) at the expense of their weaknesses (CPUs)...? IOW, cutting off the diseased limbs to save the body.

Maybe I was too quick in dismiss this scenario as not making sense. If AMD finally kills big core for once and for all, and stick only with Kabini, ARM and GPUs, a chapter 11 filling would make sense.

In such scenario AMD would kill all products manufactured at GLF, and the WSA would be deemed void in the restructuring. AMD would then focus on its relationship with TSMC manufacturing x86, ARM and small core.

The problem is that this would wipe shareholders out, and AMD would have to bring a lot of money to the table for the debt holders, they would have to cut *a lot* more personnel and there is the issue with the license agreement with Intel.
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,269
5,134
136
Not an area I know nearly as much about, hence the question. From my limited understanding, I thought their multicore monsters were useful in certain scenarios?

They can certainly beat Intel chips in raw performance in certain applications- but they tend to lose pretty badly in performance/watt, which is the main concern for most server customers. If they're going to be stressing a 16-core chip 100%, 24/7, those energy bills rack up quickly.
 

thilanliyan

Lifer
Jun 21, 2005
11,912
2,130
126
[redacted]

I really hope AMD survives...but the picture just gets bleaker it seems like.

How much would the console wins help them?

Don't start
-ViRGE
 
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ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
They can certainly beat Intel chips in raw performance in certain applications- but they tend to lose pretty badly in performance/watt, which is the main concern for most server customers. If they're going to be stressing a 16-core chip 100%, 24/7, those energy bills rack up quickly.

Are you sure? AMD gets beaten even worse in the server segment, performance included.

Opteron 6386 SE vs Xeon E5-2687W for example.
 
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SiliconWars

Platinum Member
Dec 29, 2012
2,346
0
0
[redacted]

On topic, I see investors have been scared out of their wits by this dreadful news. Oh no wait, the stock is up 1.5% today.

Don't start
-ViRGE
 
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mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
76
- Kabini is a major upgrade on Brazos and will provide a revenue and profitability uplift.

Brazos today corresponds to 40% of shipments, but maybe only 30%-35% of their revenues. While Kabini will be an improvement to those 30%-35%, what happens to the others 65%-70%? Do you think a half-baked upgrade such as Richland can take on an arch refresh from Intel?
 

Gigantopithecus

Diamond Member
Dec 14, 2004
7,665
0
71
They can certainly beat Intel chips in raw performance in certain applications- but they tend to lose pretty badly in performance/watt, which is the main concern for most server customers. If they're going to be stressing a 16-core chip 100%, 24/7, those energy bills rack up quickly.

OK, gotcha. Thanks for the info. I was reading articles about the NSA's crpytanalyis projects and everything they're using seemed to be AMD. But when taxpayers are footing the bill, performance/watt is unimportant, ha.
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
59
91
Personal opinion:
If Fitch would have actively followed the market they'd have lowered AMDs rating a year ago. AMDs current plan for the near future is more safe and sound than it was a year ago even if it's still a gamble.
Thus, degrading their rating now and by this amount seems much more like a screw up by Fitch than anything else.

They don't get paid to make guesses and gambles. The fact that they have only just now changed the rating suggests that they have confidence that certain indicators of future activity are surely not going to turn out well and good.

Anyone can take the 50/50 gamble of being right and calling the market (up or down) at any time...being right for the wrong reasons is great in Vegas but makes for a poor analyst or ratings house. These guys get paid to be right for the right reasons and if they get that part wrong then they are out of business themselves.
 

SiliconWars

Platinum Member
Dec 29, 2012
2,346
0
0
Brazos today corresponds to 40% of shipments, but maybe only 30%-35% of their revenues. While Kabini will be an improvement to those 30%-35%, what happens to the others 65%-70%? Do you think a half-baked upgrade such as Richland can take on an arch refresh from Intel?

How long before the Haswell i3's hit? Richland is 6 months ahead of Haswell.

So take the current A10 5800K, which is selling well vs the i3 3220 which is dropping in price, and add 10-20% performance at the same price.

The only half baked upgrade is Haswell, coming too late to matter.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
How long before the Haswell i3's hit? Richland is 6 months ahead of Haswell.

So take the current A10 5800K, which is selling well vs the i3 3220 which is dropping in price, and add 10-20% performance at the same price.

The only half baked upgrade is Haswell, coming too late to matter.

AMDs -37% YoY in the CPU division and product mix disagrees with you. Not to mention AMD payed GloFo not to make those chips.
 

SiliconWars

Platinum Member
Dec 29, 2012
2,346
0
0
AMDs -37% YoY in the CPU division and product mix disagrees with you.

[redacted] Intel held on to market share by dumping SB's last quarter but that's just left them with more of the low end garbage they have in inventory.

AMD's product mix has clearly improved so you might want to improve your sources.

You just had to go and do it, didn't you? Throw in a little hostile comment that adds nothing to the discussing and meant to provoke other posters. You will be taking the next week off for accumulated infractions.
-ViRGE
 
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Gigantopithecus

Diamond Member
Dec 14, 2004
7,665
0
71
AMDs -37% YoY in the CPU division and product mix disagrees with you.

Are there data on sales of specific SKUs? There's a lot more to that -37% YoY CPU division than just the APUs, correct? Hell even Intel's YoY CPU sales are down double digits, aren't they?
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
76
How long before the Haswell i3's hit? Richland is 6 months ahead of Haswell.

If IVB launch means something, we'll see i3 HSW in the next quarter after the launch, which means Q3.

So take the current A10 5800K, which is selling well vs the i3 3220 which is dropping in price, and add 10-20% performance at the same price.

You come here with a hype (10%-20% of what? CPU, GPU? in what workloads?)and a baseless assumption (the 5800k is selling well against i3 3220. What's selling well? Going from 15:1 to 14:1 against i3? Selling well compared to what? Against Llano, that Trinity couldn't replace in sales 1:1 in both revenue and volume?).

What am I supposed to answer for you?
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
They should be shut out of the debt markets. The more you think about it the more you realize just how big of an epic failure this company is. Why did they even make socketed cpus? Why didnt they start making their own motherboards? What sense does it make to take a silicon die and mount it to a pc board and then attach a bunch of pins to it and then mount that to another pc board, and then connect another silicon die to yet another pc board, and then connect that.... Why not just integrate the cpu and north/south bridges onto one pice of silicon, and then mount that die onto just one board, the motherboard, and control the whole process. They would have made a killing. For years no one has cared about standards, as long as it had expandable memory and a pciE slot or three.
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
56,453
10,120
126
^lol

Who wants to go in on a flatbed truck with me and go bid on some cool tooling at their factory closeout auctions?

That begs the question - does clean-room machinery spend its entire lifetime in a cleanroom? From production of the machinery to installation to use? Or is it possible to expose them to the "outside", and then actually clean them to clean-room specs and make them usable again for mfg?

It might be telling to find out what happened to the clean-room mfg equipment from WD's thailand facility after the floods.
 
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