AMD shut out of the debt market

[mrmt]

I am quite sure kabini and temash is positioned correct on the market, and considering its growth market for both, shipping the same as the total of 2012 is not out of reach - far grom, - its going on the emerging markets.

I don't know if I expressed myself correctly, but let me try again: 60 million is four times annual Brazos volume.

 

[krumme]

I don't know if I expressed myself correctly, but let me try again: 60 million is four times annual Brazos volume.

Temash is an entirely new market, and could be the product that makes win8 fly.
4 core kabini is an entire new segment compared to bobcat, and could go into "ultrabooks" markets.
Ofcourse its also going into richland segment. And thats why i dont think it matters that much from an economic perspective how many is sold for AMD, it all depends on GF contract and mubadala strategy, how much they scale kabini up.

 

[mrmt]

4 core kabini is an entire new segment compared to bobcat, and could go into "ultrabooks" markets.

Not new segment. Kabini 4C will take on Core and single module Trinity.

 

[piesquared]

Great article here from Seeking Alpha:

Both Kabini - and its tablet-focused ultra-low-power envelope cousin Temash - represent, I believe, the home run AMD needed to hit with Trinity and missed. Trinity suffered from a number of issues, most obviously, that it wasn't enough better than Ivy Bridge to entice OEM's to cross Intel.

The same cannot and will not be said between Kabini and Clover Trail, Intel's latest Atom abortion. Kabini [and Temash], by the look of the design, will be capable of serving everything from tablets to ultrathins /low-end laptops and all-in-one desktops. But the kicker that no one at AMD will confirm yet but is the obvious opportunity-- cloud micro-servers.

Kabini is a full SoC with both integrated south bridge and GPU and the first AMD APU to use its Graphics Core Next [GCN] technology. The result is a massive increase in graphics performance over the current Brazos 2.0 E-1800, as well being a true quad-core CPU all built on a 28nm process that, according to TMSC, is yielding well from the start. Clover Trail cannot touch this. Temash is simply Kabini with parts stripped, and the TDP dropped to the 4-5 Watt range. Kabini SKU's have been uncovered covering 8 to 25 Watt TDP so far

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1152571-kabini-gives-amd-hope?source=email_rt_article_readmore

And finally someone in the media gets it right.

[edit]
Need to mention that Richland won't be no slouch either, especially bundled with Elite Software. It will destroy ivy bridge graphics and likely beat out haswell graphics as well. A 40% increase would put it somewhere around 100% faster than ivy bridge.

 

[NTMBK]

Not new segment. Kabini 4C will take on Core and single module Trinity.

I think he meant new in the sense of different to what Bobcat targeted.

 

[Abwx]

So AMD has his credit rating downgraded , yet the topic explicitly
stipulate that they are are shut out of the debt market , wich
is a completely wrong and misleading title.

Greece had an even worse rating , yet they werent shut out of the markets,
since a downgrade only means that eventual refinancements will be made
at higher interests rates , that s all , but surely that such misleading and
purposely stretched announcements suit some agenda.....

 

[SickBeast]

Hopefully this will force AMD to learn how to earn profits.

 

[Idontcare]

So AMD has his credit rating downgraded , yet the topic explicitly
stipulate that they are are shut out of the debt market , wich
is a completely wrong and misleading title.

Greece had an even worse rating , yet they werent shut out of the markets,
since a downgrade only means that eventual refinancements will be made
at higher interests rates , that s all , but surely that such misleading and
purposely stretched announcements suit some agenda.....

While none of us are divine enough to claim we know the OP's motive for selecting the specific words chosen for the thread title, what we all can agree on is that there can be no doubt that there are/were two separate agendas afoot in the market with respect to the analysts:

First and foremost, why was AMD's rating held so high despite the fact that there was continual pressure placed on their cashflow, cash holdings and assets? (i.e. this downgrade should have occurred months ago, and yet it didn't, why that? :hmm

And second, why the downgrade now? What purpose (what agenda) is served in finally coming out with this downgrade at this particular moment in time...equally questionable IMO.

So we have the possibility of at least three separate agendas here, that of the OP's thread title, that of the ratings houses dragging their feet on making what is seemingly a blindingly obvious call with months and months of hindsight at their back, and that of why bother finally making the call at this point in time versus just waiting another month or two?

And of the three potential agendas, the one I would rank as being the least interesting or relevant to waste my time contemplating and debating would be that of the OP's word choice when drafting this thread.

The real meat of the issue here is WTF is going on with these ratings houses that they sit on their hands for so long before acknowledging what is basically a foregone conclusion by now, and what possible reason is there for them to make that call official at this point in time (considering they bit their tongue at all other times up until this point in time).

 

[Abwx]

The profits are actually almost there , it s only that the real stockholders
are the debt onwners since they extract 7% interest rates , far above the
4% long term yields for stocks...

 

[Ferzerp]

I don't think that word (profit) means what you think it means...

 

[Abwx]

First and foremost, why was AMD's rating held so high despite the fact that there was continual pressure placed on their cashflow, cash holdings and assets? (i.e. this downgrade should have occurred months ago, and yet it didn't, why that? :hmm



And second, why the downgrade now? What purpose (what agenda) is served in finally coming out with this downgrade at this particular moment in time...equally questionable IMO.

So we have the possibility of at least three separate agendas here, that of the OP's thread title, that of the ratings houses dragging their feet on making what is seemingly a blindingly obvious call with months and months of hindsight at their back, and that of why bother finally making the call at this point in time versus just waiting another month or two?

And of the three potential agendas, the one I would rank as being the least interesting or relevant to waste my time contemplating and debating would be that of the OP's word choice when drafting this thread.

The real meat of the issue here is WTF is going on with these ratings houses that they sit on their hands for so long before acknowledging what is basically a foregone conclusion by now, and what possible reason is there for them to make that call official at this point in time (considering they bit their tongue at all other times up until this point in time).

Their previous credit rating date surely from the time when
they owned the production tools.

After a period of observation of the manufacturing spun off results
the agency think that they are in worse shape and with far less
capital , having burned the cash they sought from selling their
remaining stake in glofo.

As for the notation agencies , well , i m on the stock markets
for a living and i can tell you that the best profits i ever made
were always by betting that theses agencies and other councelors
were at odd (purposely?) with reality..:biggrin:

 

[Abwx]

I don't think that word (profit) means what you think it means...

What i said is that the debt owners gets a better yield than
what stock holders get even with healthy corporates.

To pay the interests and be at equilibrium AMD has to yield
double the historical ROI average rates , so the profits are
there , it s just that excessive interests rates suck any margin
left.

 

[georgec84]

Why does the thread have 4 stars? Do people here like bad news for AMD?

I think things are looking up for AMD, but their reputation has suffered so much they have a long way to go to reclaim trust from many consumers.

 

[CHADBOGA]

Great article here from Seeking Alpha:



http://seekingalpha.com/article/1152571-kabini-gives-amd-hope?source=email_rt_article_readmore

And finally someone in the media gets it right.

[edit]
Need to mention that Richland won't be no slouch either, especially bundled with Elite Software. It will destroy ivy bridge graphics and likely beat out haswell graphics as well. A 40% increase would put it somewhere around 100% faster than ivy bridge.

Seems like that guy made a fool of himself.

As needed to be explained to him in the comments, Kabini(the so called Clovertrail killer) is a 9w - 25w processor and Clovertrail is a 2w processor.

It seems that he fundamentally doesn't understand the technology, or the industry.

 

[Centauri]

Edit

 

[erunion]

Seems like that guy made a fool of himself.

As needed to be explained to him in the comments, Kabini(the so called Clovertrail killer) is a 9w - 25w processor and Clovertrail is a 2w processor.

It seems that he fundamentally doesn't understand the technology, or the industry.

seeking alpha is user contributed content. So its not really that surprising. Though, you'll find similar missteps on TDP(eg assuming it scales directly with battery life) in the online tech press.

Though there is at least one author I've seen show he understands the technology.
http://seekingalpha.com/author/ashraf-eassa

 

[mrmt]

And second, why the downgrade now? What purpose (what agenda) is served in finally coming out with this downgrade at this particular moment in time...equally questionable IMO.

It's not a priori an agenda, but the MO of the rating agencies.

When someone is going to issue new bonds you usually ask one or more credit rating agency to rate the bond, because the rating will determine the initial demographics of the sales efforts. Most institutional investors don't even ask for pricing if the bond/operation is not rated.

And the starting point of the bond rating is the rating of the issuer itself, so when someone asks for a rating of the bond X, which may or may not be "public", when the rating company rates the bond/operation they usually refresh the rating of the company, which is "public". Now AMD is going to lease back the Austin campus, someone ought to have asked for the rating of the operation, and then we have another refresh.

A new operation is not by only means the only event that will trigger a review, as the rating agency might be bound to contract to issue a new rating every X months to verify compliance with a bond/loan covenant, or the rating company itself might find politically interesting to issue a new rating due to some extraordinary event (read, save face), but that's it.

To become more relevant for the credit market, and less opaque, those companies would have to update the rating not when they wanted or were hired, but on timely, regulars intervals. But that's not something we're going to see in the near future.

 

[Keysplayr]

While none of us are divine enough to claim we know the OP's motive for selecting the specific words chosen for the thread title, what we all can agree on is that there can be no doubt that there are/were two separate agendas afoot in the market with respect to the analysts:

First and foremost, why was AMD's rating held so high despite the fact that there was continual pressure placed on their cashflow, cash holdings and assets? (i.e. this downgrade should have occurred months ago, and yet it didn't, why that? :hmm

And second, why the downgrade now? What purpose (what agenda) is served in finally coming out with this downgrade at this particular moment in time...equally questionable IMO.

So we have the possibility of at least three separate agendas here, that of the OP's thread title, that of the ratings houses dragging their feet on making what is seemingly a blindingly obvious call with months and months of hindsight at their back, and that of why bother finally making the call at this point in time versus just waiting another month or two?

And of the three potential agendas, the one I would rank as being the least interesting or relevant to waste my time contemplating and debating would be that of the OP's word choice when drafting this thread.

The real meat of the issue here is WTF is going on with these ratings houses that they sit on their hands for so long before acknowledging what is basically a foregone conclusion by now, and what possible reason is there for them to make that call official at this point in time (considering they bit their tongue at all other times up until this point in time).

All that need be done is to figure out how this benefits the richest few on wall street and you will have your answers. Each question (not including why the OP used his exact words in the thread title) is answered if you follow the money, or at least the saving or reduction of losses.
I personally have no idea to track that down, but I'm sure there are a few wiz investors around here that know what's going on.

This post might sound cynical, or bitter against the rich, but it isn't at all. Just that the rich and powerful control the market and also the ratings houses. And anything else that can affect value of their portfolios. (Within reason).

 

[mrmt]

This post might sound cynical, or bitter against the rich, but it isn't at all. Just that the rich and powerful control the market and also the ratings houses. And anything else that can affect value of their portfolios. (Within reason).

Do you know who pays the rating agencies? It's not the super-rich, but the issuer. Yeah, that's right. The company being rated is the one who pays for the service.

The biggest problem with credit rating companies is the inherent conflict of interests of their business model. On one side you have a company that should give a fair assessment for the creditors of a issuer/bond/operation from a credit standpoint, while in the other side there is the issuer, who has *every* possible interest in getting the best possible rating. One notch up might be worth millions, and the possibility to sell bonds to otherwise inaccessible investors. And there is no mandatory requirement of go until the end with the same rating company, you can go to the next door if you think the current one is "too tough".

If you want to see what the super-rich do in the debt market, you have to look no further than the CDS market. It is there where the high level speculation happens.

 

[krumme]

I think he meant new in the sense of different to what Bobcat targeted.

Exactly. Thats why i wrote "new segment compared to bobcat", but i think MRMT got the point the first time.

 

[mrmt]

Exactly. Thats why i wrote "new segment compared to bobcat", but i think MRMT got the point the first time.

Nope, I didn't. I wouldn't have replied if I did

 

[slayernine]

Nvidia, on the other hand, doesn't need to be as concerned as Intel about mobile computing because its computer GPUs do not have mobile equivalents. PC gamers game on PCs for a reason. Then again, Nvidia also has to keep prices in check because of the bad economy.

I think you bring up another problem which is that Nvidia is running away with the tegra and AMD have no real response while Intel has a fairly minor one.

I hate to see companies run away with the market in either mobile or desktop form factors. More competition please.

 

[zephyrprime]

AMD is in very bad shape. A buyout merger is most likely. Their x86 licenses are super valuable but they are saddle with huge debt which would deter many buyers. Who would buy AMD though? Maybe nVidia? Or Samsung? Maybe Apple. ARM and Qualcomm are also possibilities. Nvidia would need a lot of financing and they would have to split off ATI from the purchase to get past regulators. The other companies could afford the purchase much more easily. For Apple, having AMD would allow them to make their own desktop and laptop chips. For samsung, the value is less clear. For ARM, buying amd would let them have a foot both in RISC and in x86. For qualcomm, the benefit is less clear.

 

[ShintaiDK]

AMD is in very bad shape. A buyout merger is most likely. Their x86 licenses are super valuable but they are saddle with huge debt which would deter many buyers. Who would buy AMD though? Maybe nVidia? Or Samsung? Maybe Apple. ARM and Qualcomm are also possibilities. Nvidia would need a lot of financing and they would have to split off ATI from the purchase to get past regulators. The other companies could afford the purchase much more easily. For Apple, having AMD would allow them to make their own desktop and laptop chips. For samsung, the value is less clear. For ARM, buying amd would let them have a foot both in RISC and in x86. For qualcomm, the benefit is less clear.

x86 license is non transferable. And its value is between minimal to nonexistant. Other companies also still got x86 licenses. Its simply not worth making the CPUs in terms of competition.

Then there is all the debt and liabilities in AMD on top.

 

[tomatom]

..
http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2283777&highlight=

the stock action is in the short position ,

but eventually AMD will die/merge and assets reassigned/sold ...