The other possibility though is that before Mantle there was no DX12 plans. If we look at the timeline, when AMD showed Mantle they said they had been working on it for ~2 years. When Msft announced DX12 they said it will be ready in ~2 years. Coincidence?
That's highly implausible. According to NVidia, discussions with Microsoft about what DX12 would look like began over 4 years ago.
And then starting in early 2013, they started on a working design which took about a year to make and was showcased in GDC 2014 on NVidia hardware.
Source
When you factor in facts such as DX12's backward compatibility with DX11, and it's multi architectural compatibility, then it's even more telling that DX12 had a longer development cycle than Mantle, and could not possibly be directly derived from the latter..