Originally posted by: cwjerome
I recently read a book from one of my favorite authors, Niall Ferguson. It was a very different take on American foreign policy compared to another book I read several months ago called "
The Empire Has No Clothes" by Ivan Eland.
In it, Eland makes a conservative case against empire, and basically says our own global military presence and actions do the reverse of their intention... that they threaten our own interests. He claims that we'll be freer, more secure, and more prosperous if we reduced our military involvement overseas.
Although conservatives in general often thrive on our military, there has been a long tradition of semi-isolationism within the American Right, exemplified by the Pat Buchanan wing of conservatism as well as many libertarian-type leaning Rightists. But there is also a brand of conservatism that sees things a bit differently.
There are many conservatives, probably mostly derived from former cold warriors, who notice a unique situation: As the sole world
hyperpower, the US is in an unparalled position to impose our preferred values and interests throughout the world.
Niall Ferguson's book "
Collosus" deals with this position.
Here's a good review of the book that explains the thesis well. I encourage anyone to read the review to gain understanding on this position. It's a fascinating book.
As a conservative, I find the various positions interesting, although I come out of the interventionalist side. I am wondering what other people, and conservatives in particular, think about this foreign policy split. I am trying to stay away from an Iraq debate to look at the larger picture, so hopefully the people consumed by Bush-hate can leave their two-line talking points in another thread. Maybe we can have this discussion with even mentioning Iraq or Bush? It would be nice to avoid partisan hackery and talk
ideas.
Very good post. International Affairs is a first of all a struggle of
ideas. Given the same situation, the number of variables is so high that the use that each researcher will do with them depends on the theories that he decides to apply. The people deciding and enforcing foreign policy always come from Academia for this very reason. Technical people are useless in this arena, ideas are needed.
First of all, researchers do not agree on the present global situation. In the end of the '90s many of them saw the USA of the lone superpower of the world, and some of them predicted that this
unipolar situation could resist for quite some time. Right now, after 9/11 and the exponential rise of China, the success of european country to join their economies and Japan being less reluctant to take an active role in international geopolitics very few still consider the situation to still be unipolar, let alone that this situation could stand the test of time.
Here come ideas. Some people look at the so-called Security Community, this being the US, European countries and Japan. War among these countries is perceived as impossible. Of course people also start to think about how this has been possible, and how could it be possible to enlarge this community in order to avoid conflicts.
If you follow classic realism this is already a paradox: for the first time in history great powers are not fighting. Some of them think it's because other powers don't want to take the risk of challenging the US right now, and just wait in the shadow for some sign of exhaustion in the USA before making a step forward. Or if you follow liberalism you could think that the free markets have linked so much the economies of these countries that the economical fallout coming from a war between these countries would be unbarable to all of them. Other praise international institutions like the United Nations, the WTO, the IMF or the world bank for their work in putting order among states. Or you could consider the cultures of these countries or their political situation (all of them are democracies) and consider this homogeneity the main point.
No matter what you choose, there are example against your theory, and the future remains unclear. Still, depemding on what you think, your actions will follow.
Right now many influent people in charge of deciding the US foreign policy think that the present situation allows the US to influence
directly the sort of the world politics everywhere. Moreover, most think the US
have to act directly in order to try to keep their position, otherwise the inevitable fall would come faster. That's why you see such an interventionist politic. They perceive that in the moment when the US will show signs of isolationism, somebody else will take the place on the top of the piramid.
Can the US afford this efforts? For how long? Hard to tell. Somebody will tell you they could resist even 50 years, somebody else probably already sees signs of fatigue.
The fact is: we know that each great power rise and eventually fall. These people are just doing their job, trying to have that fall come as late as they can. And, they are doing it according to their beliefs. Most of the researches were made in years when the cold war was THE big thing, and new schemes are being developed in an hurry to better understand this quickly changing world.
So: if you ask if this interventist politic will eventually to more bad than good to the US, then the only way to know is to wait and see.
If you want my opinion, yes, it will accellerate the eventual fall of the US power, because it's an attempt to freeze history, and history simply cannot be frozen. Many steps in this direction (NATO enlargement, direct action in the middle-east, debt, military stretched in south-east asia) are already eroding the position of the US in the world.
Many states called themselves hyper-powers, from Roman Empire to the Spanish Empire "over wich the sun never sets", to Napoleon's France, Mongol Horde, 19th century Great Britain etc etc. Eventually they all fall. What changes is the situation AFTER this fall. What the US can do now is try to understand what the world in the next decades be and try the soft landing. Trying instead to resist history could be a lot of pain.