Originally posted by: cwjerome
I'm not jumping on the China bandwagaon just yet. There are many aspects to power... and often, the raw power isn't translated into real power. China will gain much power in some respects, but it will be many more years before this potential power is converted into applied power. America overtook Britain in terms of GDP in the 1870s, but it was not until after WWI that we overtook Britain as a global power, and not until 1945 that the US truly became a "superpower."
Power is partly about material things- resources, population, economy, institutions and guns. But it is also about morale. The material aspects will disperse, and countires will become more equal, ie, multipolar. Yet the intangibles will become an even more important aspect. Psychological factors like credibility and legtimacy will have a big influence.
This is America's mission for the next 25-50 years: to establish a global environment where our values and culture are credible and legitimate. This is an ideological "battle." As I mentioned, long after the US has become just another country, our basic values and ideals must live on. As Colossus says, "faith cannot move mountains. But it can move men."
Our goal, during this time of unrivaled hegemony, should be to put our stamp on this world. To point global civilization in the direction of "Planet America" even after the US ceases to be what it is today. It's not about preserving our position as superpower. It's about using our superpower status to provide a proper legacy... for this world.
Yes, and I took centuries for somebody to take over the roman empire. Now things are quite faster. Capitals get wire-transfered, technology can be bought, macroeconomic variables flow every day. China is not on par with the US today. Not even close. But the point is the US are in their declining phase, China is in an unpreceded surge. The values thing is right. Many researchers are going that way, stating that ideas DO change international equilibriums. The only thing is: they never understand how close the culture of the so called Security Community countries are. It's not so hard to agree between french, italian, german, british, spanish and american people. What about China? They have a cultural heritage older than ours, and sociology history tells us that you just cannot get your values into hard-structured, old societies. That's why (to banalize) you have Starbucks in Buenos Aires but not in Rome. You just won't sell american coffee to italians or californian wine to french people. In the same way, despite the HUGE amount of transatlantic financial exchanges, cultural flows, trade still Euros work 35 hours a week and don't even think about adopting most of the american values. And America DO share most of european values, so this difference shouldn't be a big deal. Asian countries are FAR more different, don't share most of western countries history, culture, literature, religion, political tradition. Planet America can only exist in the mind of somebody who hasn't travelled a lot. Sometimes I do the same mistake on my job. I tend to consider everybody to have my same culture, values, and to prefer what I would consider more rational. It's just not the case.
We all tend to think that democracy is better than anything else. I believe it too. But you know what? It just is not true. It's just OUR point of view, in this given period. You can try to export this idea in countries that have a matching socio-economical environment, and share some of your key values. In other countries you just cannot. China has already started exporting THEIR values. Diplomatic missions from China are skyrocketing, as is capital inflow in the country, IPOs of chinese companies. Chinese movies presented at the most important cinema festivals in the world: Venice, Cannes, Berlin. Winning prizes. And the whole media and PR buzz.. Formula One a couple of weeks ago, Olimpic Games next year, EXPO soon... China has turned from an exotic country to part of everyone's life and cocktail-chat in 5 years.
All this (apparently) mundane efforts had the result of having most people forgetting that Chinese government is still sentencing people to death, imprisoning political dissidents and other not-so-nice things. Still, during the China-Japan crysis last spring, most western countries' politicians appeared veeeery smooth and paid A LOT of attention not to endanger lucrative relations with China.
I would hope that this "global environment of values" is obtainable, but anywhere from South America, to the Middle East, to far Asia and Africa you can see it's just something not achievable. So, I hope this is not something where the US will invest all their energies, because that would mean a much faster fall.