Americans, get ready to pull your pants down. US tax money to fund euro bailout

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JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,399
3,947
126
Are these loans to be payed back?

I'm honestly not willing to sit on a soup line. That is the last thing we should want to happen not the first as some of you losers want.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
Based upon what Steve Liesman said earlier, this is not intended to bail out Italy (http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000058685)

It is, I think, a safety net being put in place for smaller countries that still have good fiscal situation, to provide temporary liquidity if Germany really implodes the European banking system and that implosion starts to suck in accidental bystander countries.

If it were to be later expanded to deal with Italy, I wonder if it would be like a carrot put in front of Italian government and people to motivate them to continue accepting austerity and liberalization of economy so that could conceivably eventually grow out of debts (with some written down too?) over time. I think Italy has already accepted some sort of fiscal oversight from IMF, too.

(and if Italy was really committed to path of growth in future with proper market reforms, U. S. buying 7% Italian paper with 2% Treasuries could end up being pretty good deal for U. S. taxpayers, too).




Much more important may be the news that Liesman is breaking on CNBC now (http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000058734) about details of U. S. bank stress tests about to be performed, (edit: unfortunately, it sounds like they will take place in 2012, not this year , so may not be catalyst to help promote some sort of into year end rally) it would hopefully show, in at least best case scenario, that U. S. has decoupled, both economically and financially, from Europe, or at worst, financial markets fallout will be manageable and contained to small number of usual suspects (GS, MS, C, among others (those three were the specific ones I remember heard some talking head on CNBC Asia say had most opaque cds exposure to European institutions) that might have to raise additional private capital, but don't take down whole U. S. economy in process...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45405771
 
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yllus

Elite Member & Lifer
Aug 20, 2000
20,577
432
126
The IMF doesn't lose money, IIRC. So this is less a bailout than a (somewhat necessary) short term loan.
 

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
The fall out of wreckless investments, both local and global, are being absorbed by US tax payers.

Wall Street has turned the US government into it's own garbage disposal system; enjoy the "benefits" of capitalism.

This is not capitalism it's crony capitalism. It's rule of law not being applied starting with the Constitution where only congress has right to control money supply all the way to massive frauds not being prosecuted. don't throw baby out with bath water, you want to live in a dictatorship?

If this experiment falls we will. Either fascist or communist.
 

Hugo Drax

Diamond Member
Nov 20, 2011
5,647
47
91
BTW 2012 another FED stress test on US banks. (BASEL II or BASEL III) who knows. more bailouts if they fail?

and IMF

http://www.examiner.com/finance-exa...-euro-bailout-through-new-imf-credit-facility

US to backdoor Euro bailout through new IMF credit facility.

Continue reading on Examiner.com US to backdoor Euro bailout through new IMF credit facility - National Finance Examiner

108 billion was already slated for the IMF by obama.
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=46491

I wonder how many billions we will pony up for this new IMF facility.

Lemon socialism at its best.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
The fall out of wreckless investments, both local and global, are being absorbed by US tax payers.

Wall Street has turned the US government into it's own garbage disposal system; enjoy the "benefits" of capitalism.

It's not "capitalism", it's "cronyism".

It's also "reelection" for Obama. The fallout from the Euro bond debacle is not supposed to hit us until sometime early next according to what I've read. No way can Obama allow that to happen if he wants to be reelected. Can't have a double-dip hitting us before election time.

Fern
 

Ausm

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
25,215
14
81
Since when can Wall Street legislate that tax payers are required to bailout europe? Don't get me wrong as I'm no fan of wall street either, but the governments have enabled them through loose credit policies that eventually have to be tightened. If the government didn't charter a lender of last resort for them, then supply of credit would be much tighter and the business cycle would be minimized for those who weren't risk takers.

Anyway, there is a huge problem with bailouts because they're nothing other than bailouts of creditors who are also debtors. As for creditors who aren't debtors, sure some of their savings would've been wasted, but they have no right to be bailed out at tax payer expense and they'd benefit from the deflation that would happen. Letting the creditors who are in debt go bankrupt has worked every time in history when government actually let that happen.

You idiot the reason why we would have to bail them out is because US banks and Wall Street were selling them toxic debt.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
Then we should go down as well, we never should have been so entrenched with them to get to this point. Failure is the best course of action and we should allow it. It won't be that bad, the people who will be hit the hardest are those at the top with power. They'll be the ones whose blood people are demanding.

From what I read our problem is far less one of "entrenchment" and more of a problem that one of our big trading partners (imports US goods) will go into a slump and buy less of our products, leading us into a slump also.

There may be some "entrenchment" with some funds/banks holding Italian bonds etc., but I'm not hearing that's a big problem. (Unless, of course, you invested in Corzine's company - MF Capital. IIRC, recently heard the amount of 'missing' investor money had risen to $1.2 Billion)

Fern
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
You idiot the reason why we would have to bail them out is because US banks and Wall Street were selling them toxic debt.

Nope. We've already done that with TARP. A lot of that money went to foreign banks holding US derivatives/CDS's. (IMO, that was unnecessary. They bought it, they should've known what they were doing. You want the reward, you take the risk. Fsck 'em.)

Anyhoo, Europe's current problem is bad foreign (country) bonds, like Greece and Italy et al, not anything from us. And we're worried that their problems may cause us problems with (lessening) demand etc that would negatively impact our economy.

Fern
 

Ausm

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
25,215
14
81
Nope. We've already done that with TARP. A lot of that money went to foreign banks holding US derivatives/CDS's. (IMO, that was unnecessary. They bought it, they should've known what they were doing. You want the reward, you take the risk. Fsck 'em.)

Anyhoo, Europe's current problem is bad foreign (country) bonds, like Greece and Italy et al, not anything from us. And we're worried that their problems may cause us problems with (lessening) demand etc that would negatively impact our economy.

Fern

So none of Europe's problems are due to any of the bad credit default swaps and derivatives that were sold to them by the U.S and the T.A.R.P. was in your opinion sufficient enough to bail everyone out??

Do you realize the only people who knew the true risk of the garbage they where selling was Goldman sachs,Big Bank CEO's and a few other Wall Street insiders? In fact Goldman Sachs was secretly hedging against this crap they were selling to their own customers.

I also have read in many credible sites that it will take YEARS for all the toxic debt in the WORLD'S financial system to clear out and it will take at least 10 more years to come out of this recession.

Wow never read this angle before.
 
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bfdd

Lifer
Feb 3, 2007
13,312
1
0
From what I read our problem is far less one of "entrenchment" and more of a problem that one of our big trading partners (imports US goods) will go into a slump and buy less of our products, leading us into a slump also.

There may be some "entrenchment" with some funds/banks holding Italian bonds etc., but I'm not hearing that's a big problem. (Unless, of course, you invested in Corzine's company - MF Capital. IIRC, recently heard the amount of 'missing' investor money had risen to $1.2 Billion)

Fern

Ship them to Asia and South America, lower the prices. Waah. We'll get by.
 

bradley

Diamond Member
Jan 9, 2000
3,671
2
81
True capitalism hasn't exisited in the US for a long time, nor has true conservatism or liberalism. Today politicans make too much money misrepresenting or distorting these terms. I honestly don't know the difference between a Republican or Democrat anymore, and neither do they.

The bailouts will continue, because we have allowed them to with our partisan politics and what currently passes for journalism.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
"one of our big trading partners (imports US goods) will go into a slump and buy less of our products, leading us into a slump also."
There was some talking head on CNBC a day or two ago who said exports to Europe were 10% (it was 10% or 20%), but that most of that is re-exported elsewhere out of Europe.

That person said the exports originated primarily from three states, New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania (don't know how that jives with what I heard that technology companies had large markets in Europe?)

I think greater concern might be if there is a global recession (RBC strategist who was projecting very low GDP next year (I think he said 1.5 - 2%) because a lot of emerging markets get their financing from Europe.

China seems to have gotten control of it's inflation problem (inflation is stabilized and not going up now), but still concerns about soft landing or hard landing for their economy.





edit #1: I did google for Empire Report European Exports, and this graph seems to contradict what talking head said re European exports - http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/11/14/which-states-would-be-hit-hardest-by-eu-recession/ (LOL, seems I found same link you added below)

edit #2:
"Some analysts concur with the view that the situation may not be that dire. For example, Jonathan Anderson, an economist with UBS in Hong Kong, notes that Asian economies are “essentially self-sufficient in terms of finance for local investment, consumption and working capital”.

The flows from European banks are primarily connected with trade finance, he says. That means that, even if the European banks pull back, as seems to be happening, either global banks, such as HSBC, or local banks can pick up the slack, in part because such finance does not require banks to set aside much precious capital against such lending.

Still, Mr Anderson concedes all this is dependent on banks maintaining lines to each other, since it is in their interest to maintain a stable interbank market. In fact, banks are all wrestling with the dilemma that it can be prudent to cut lines to counterparties whose funding base is fragile, yet if everyone cuts those lines, everyone is worse off."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45409040
 
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Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
So none of Europe's problems are due to any of the bad credit default swaps and derivatives that were sold to them by the U.S and the T.A.R.P. was in your opinion sufficient enough to bail everyone out??

Do you realize the only people who knew the true risk of the garbage they where selling was Goldman sachs,Big Bank CEO's and a few other Wall Street insiders? In fact Goldman Sachs was secretly hedging against this crap they were selling to their own customers.

I also have read in many credible sites that it will take YEARS for all the toxic debt in the WORLD'S financial system to clear out and it will take at least 10 more years to come out of this recession.

Wow never read this angle before.

Correct. What I'm reading is this current Euro situation has little or nothing to do US CDS's/CDO's. A lot of TARP money went to foreign banks, either directly or passed through from US banks involved in the bailouts. I suppose it's possible the US Treas Dept may have acquired foreign held CDO's/CDS's too.

I'm reading that this is on Europe itself. Greece defaulted, I don't care what term the MSM is using; it defaulted. Italy is in very deep trouble. It's 'too big to fail' yet at the same time 'too big to bailout'. The big increase in interest rates Italy must now pay on any bond issuance (or rollover) is gonna blow the shizz out of it's budget. I.e., looks like they're heading for default too. Somebody is gonna 'eat it'. It's either Euro banks, dragging us down too, or the IMF. Which, if the latter, unfortunately (a very mild term given my personal feelings on the matter) looks like we're gonna eat some too.

I still think it remain to be seen how this mess will play out. Germany & France don't seem too eager to help unless they get assurances this won't happen again, and understandably so. I fear the IMF may be stepping in because the affected countries won't agree to such assurance which are essentially giving up some sovereignty. If so, I predict we'll (with the IMF) be doing this again in the not-too-distant future.

Considering the upcoming election. I don't see how Obama can afford to play hardball here. He simply cannot have a hit to the economy next year. Yet, in the absence of a Euro bailout that is exactly what is expected to happen.

Fern
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
There was some talking head on CNBC a day or two ago who said exports to Europe were 10% (it was 10% or 20%), but that most of that is re-exported elsewhere out of Europe.

That person said the exports originated primarily from three states, New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania (don't know how that jives with what I heard that technology companies had large markets in Europe?)

I think greater concern might be if there is a global recession (RBC strategist who was projecting very low GDP next year (I think he said 1.5 - 2%) because a lot of emerging markets get their financing from Europe.

China seems to have gotten control of it's inflation problem (inflation is stabilized and not going up now), but still concerns about soft landing or hard landing for their economy.

It's 20%.

In addition to exports, also factor in foreign (European) operations of US companies in those countries. Not good for the stock market either.

For graph, try this link:

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-QO430_statee_G_20111114155117.jpg

Fern
 

bradley

Diamond Member
Jan 9, 2000
3,671
2
81
The bubble has been engineered to eventually pop in favor of those who created and understand these derivatives and rules. Those with little to no understaning will continue blaming the victim, for what almost appears to be a trillion-dollar victimless crime.

Just as the average Goldman Sachs derivative broker cannot accurately and comprenensibly describe the same exotic product they sell, neither can the average: OWSer, Teapartier, politician or derivative purchaser.
 

bfdd

Lifer
Feb 3, 2007
13,312
1
0
Fern, I work for a French company. I really don't care if the Eurozone crashed and I ended up losing my job. That's just life, people suffer for failures. You work to lift yourself out of them and try not to make them again. It seems though that we want to perpetuate this cycle and that's wrong. If American tax payers end up on the rope for the European bailout, how the fuck does Obama win an election then? I don't see it happening.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
-snip-
If American tax payers end up on the rope for the European bailout, how the fuck does Obama win an election then? I don't see it happening.

A double-dip recession is expected if Europe can't resolve it. And I think a double-dip is a stone cold killer for his reelection. So, that's not an option IMO.

Unless Germany & France step up to handle it, which looks a little doubtful atm, Obama may have to get the US involved in a collective effort (IMF) and sell it as best he can. I really don't see how he has much choice. And I am sure he'll never utter the word "bailout" in describing the effort. They'll spin it, as usual.

It seems though that we want to perpetuate this cycle and that's wrong.

I hear ya. But I just don't think politicians are willing to see any bubble burst on their watch for fear it'll kill their reelection chances. IMO, from what we've seen they'll try to slow the drop using any tool (usually OPM - other peoples' money) they can get their hands on.

Fern
 
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bfdd

Lifer
Feb 3, 2007
13,312
1
0
They have no re-election chances if they keep egging on the American people. The majority have been ok with getting shit on so far, but the bail outs over all aren't popular and bailing out Europe isn't going to go over well and the "dooms day" scenarios they're going to spew are going to be the same ones the public has heard for years now. If Obama can't get elected without it and I don't see how he can be elected with it, it's a lose-lose. So he's going to lose on this, Republicans are going to sneak in Romney and more status quo.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
Heh. If the Germans & the ECB don't come to their senses, move away from their hard money policy, Europe will fall down, along with our own financial sector, again.

Just as European financial firms took a beating when the housing bubble collapsed, American firms will do the same if the situation in Europe worsens to the point of default by Italy or Spain.

International self regulated banking in a free trade environment, remember? Neither current US or European regulations are capable of containing the greed of Banking execs- they're thick as thieves on both sides of the Atlantic, all of them angling to get over on the others. What the completely unregulated CDS/ derivative market has done is to make risk systemic, with all of the big players chained together. It's the greatest privatization of profit/ socialization of risk ever created, because bailout of some sort is a necessity for the rest of us.

We should have figured that out circa 2009, enacted regulations to prevent further occurrences and to limit contagion of failure. We've done no such thing, and neither have our European cousins.

Looks like bankers will continue to rule until they manage to create another great Depression, and they're working at it. They can't help themselves. It's the kind of business where the most competent risk taking psychopaths rise to the top, and they have.

Crash the world economy? I got mine! So long, suckers!
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
35,606
29,323
136
... the governments have enabled them through loose credit policies that eventually have to be tightened.
...
Can you please explain to me why you are proposing stronger government policies with the bolded statement above?
I'm not. government-created bubbles have to pop.
So when you said that 'government's loose credit policies have to be tightened' you weren't proposing that 'government's loose credit policies have to be tightened'?
 
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