America's coming demographic disaster

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obidamnkenobi

Golden Member
Sep 16, 2010
1,407
423
136
Countries like Japan and Singapore have provided all sorts of incentives, to no avail. Europe has more social benefits than America - yet people are reproducing less and less. It also becomes a philosophical question. People these days have different mindsets compared to ancestors.

So you're just saying that countries that have incentives are experiencing lower rates? How do you know the rate wouldn't have been even lower had those programs not been in place? You have show a study were they control for other factors and compare with and without such incentives, or before/after.

Japan has a famously hostile and demanding work culture, I'm surprised anyone have kids there at all..
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,812
49,498
136
So you're just saying that countries that have incentives are experiencing lower rates? How do you know the rate wouldn't have been even lower had those programs not been in place? You have show a study were they control for other factors and compare with and without such incentives, or before/after.

Japan has a famously hostile and demanding work culture, I'm surprised anyone have kids there at all..

Yes, countries with those incentives have them precisely because of their low fertility rates. It’s like saying band aids cause bleeding because everyone wearing one has a cut.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
72,699
6,196
126
And who is going to pay for these all wonderful robots? The robots themselves?
Solar cells consume fossil fuel energy to make. When enough are made they can break even and then go on to surplus. Robots can do the same. They pay for themselves in the long run. They can become a self replicating force like a virus as long as the universe is warm. Maybe someday they will know the how of where all the heat came from in the first place.
 

UglyCasanova

Lifer
Mar 25, 2001
19,275
1,361
126
You need to explain this one.


As a society we can’t afford to spend $500k to keep granny alive for another week or two. There is no mechanism to keep costs in control. Also longevity shouldnt be the sole focus but rather quality of life. We need to co e to grips with the fact that it’s ok to die.
 
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JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,399
3,947
126
As a society we can’t afford to spend $500k to keep granny alive for another week or two. There is no mechanism to keep costs in control. Also longevity shouldnt be the sole focus but rather quality of life. We need to co e to grips with the fact that it’s ok to die.

ok so now death panels are ok?
 
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Noah Abrams

Golden Member
Feb 15, 2018
1,041
109
76
As a society we can’t afford to spend $500k to keep granny alive for another week or two. There is no mechanism to keep costs in control. Also longevity shouldnt be the sole focus but rather quality of life. We need to co e to grips with the fact that it’s ok to die.

We are terrified of death. Even avoid talking about it like a plague. It is not the cause but the effect of several deep internal issues in the American psyche
 

Noah Abrams

Golden Member
Feb 15, 2018
1,041
109
76
Why do we need more people? Is there some goal to reach to win? Better to maintain a number that doesnt put a strain on resources then to breed like rabbits just cause?

I think to reproduce is human being’s primordial instinct. There is no because to it
 

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,399
3,947
126
capitalism requires constant growth and consumption. basically we evolved wrong and this is what we are. Im sure some other sentient being out there will get it right before the heat death of the universe.
 

Noah Abrams

Golden Member
Feb 15, 2018
1,041
109
76
capitalism requires constant growth and consumption. basically we evolved wrong and this is what we are. Im sure some other sentient being out there will get it right before the heat death of the universe.

Every society needs more people. Stalin had some awards going on for women with more children. So I think you are wrong about this having anything to do with capitalism.
 

Noah Abrams

Golden Member
Feb 15, 2018
1,041
109
76
If money was the main criterion for reproduction, then conservative people wouldn't have so many children as they do. Because I am told conservatives are greedy and selfish. Sorry I got drawn into this again...was hoping for a politics free conversation
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,945
20,215
136
I'm 43 and you always think that wow, I'd like to be 20 years old again knowing what I know now. And of course I do, but I want to stipulate that I be 20 years old again back when I was 20, not now. I think this youngest generation is fucked, through no fault of their own.
 

Noah Abrams

Golden Member
Feb 15, 2018
1,041
109
76
I'm 43 and you always think that wow, I'd like to be 20 years old again knowing what I know now. And of course I do, but I want to stipulate that I be 20 years old again back when I was 20, not now. I think this youngest generation is fucked, through no fault of their own.

Do you think a 43 year old at that time would have said the same thing?
 

Noah Abrams

Golden Member
Feb 15, 2018
1,041
109
76
I thought this was interesting, from the article. The last term made me smile

There is no doubt that Mexicans work a lot harder than native born people. How many white or black people can do construction work in brutal heat

---Opponents advance a host of other, sometimes contradictory arguments to make their case. Immigrants, they say, are lazy and soak up massive amounts of welfare even while they are willing to work harder and for less money than natives (a paradox known as "Schrodinger's Immigrant").
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
35,597
29,300
136
If money was the main criterion for reproduction, then conservative people wouldn't have so many children as they do. Because I am told conservatives are greedy and selfish. Sorry I got drawn into this again...was hoping for a politics free conversation
Money is a contributing criterion to reproduction, which is distinctly different from being "the main critereon." Further, it is a contributing criterion to responsible reproduction, but not so much to irresponsible reproduction. I'd argue that if there were a "main criterion" it would be ignorance, something conservatives have in spades.

Additionally, it looks like you just argued that if conservatives were greedy and selfish they wouldn't have enough money to reproduce. That can't be right since I doubt you are stupid enough to think that greed or selfishness would not aid in the accumulation of wealth. Therefore you must be arguing that if conservatives are greedy and/or selfish, those attitudes must extend to their potential children to the point that they wouldn't want to ever have to spend money on them. Brilliant. Donald Trump has kids, therefore he is not greedy or selfish. Way to go Socrates.
 

zerocool84

Lifer
Nov 11, 2004
36,041
472
126
I thought this was interesting, from the article. The last term made me smile

There is no doubt that Mexicans work a lot harder than native born people. How many white or black people can do construction work in brutal heat

---Opponents advance a host of other, sometimes contradictory arguments to make their case. Immigrants, they say, are lazy and soak up massive amounts of welfare even while they are willing to work harder and for less money than natives (a paradox known as "Schrodinger's Immigrant").
Everyone knows this but Republicans choose to deny it. Without immigrants, our farming would be insanely expensive because those immigrants work for dirt cheap pay and work long hours.
 

alcoholbob

Diamond Member
May 24, 2005
6,271
323
126
In the next three decades, there will be more people over 65 than under 18. That is a scary prospect any way you look at it. The fertility rate is at its lowest since tracking of it began a century ago.As examples of various Asian countries show, there are no amount of incentives that the govt can give for people to reproduce more. Just doesn't work that way.

More immigrants are needed. The libertarian position of course is open borders, though I personally don't quite agree with that. I do think a lot more legal immigrants are needed.

But its ironic that the more immigrants are needed, the more the sentiment is against that. Those who oppose non-European immigrants used to be a minor slice of the Republican party but now pretty much seem to control it. Instead of increase, they want to drastically reduce legal immigration, which is quite astonishing. Not to mention myopic. Does anyone actually want a dark Japan like future for America, where people are dressing dogs in baby clothes and putting them in strollers.

America Needs Immigrants Now More Than Ever
From falling birthrates to labor shortages, if you want to make America great again, the economic case for opening borders has never been stronger.

Economists in the 50s were saying by 1970 we'd have a fully mechanized agricultural industry due to the trends back then...then we took in tens of millions of immigrants and the cratering wages in agriculture has postponed large amounts of mechanization for nearly 50 years. Truth is there is no such thing as a dark future, everything is about tradeoffs. Japan is a much nicer country to live in the than the U.S., they've dealt with demographic change with technology which has made it a highly technologically advanced society. They've automated a lot of things of which we dont do here because low wages stalls automation--which additionally increases our carbon footprint.

Immigration is not a absolute good.
 

paperfist

Diamond Member
Nov 30, 2000
6,517
280
126
www.the-teh.com
In the next three decades, there will be more people over 65 than under 18. That is a scary prospect any way you look at it. The fertility rate is at its lowest since tracking of it began a century ago.As examples of various Asian countries show, there are no amount of incentives that the govt can give for people to reproduce more. Just doesn't work that way.

More immigrants are needed. The libertarian position of course is open borders, though I personally don't quite agree with that. I do think a lot more legal immigrants are needed.

But its ironic that the more immigrants are needed, the more the sentiment is against that. Those who oppose non-European immigrants used to be a minor slice of the Republican party but now pretty much seem to control it. Instead of increase, they want to drastically reduce legal immigration, which is quite astonishing. Not to mention myopic. Does anyone actually want a dark Japan like future for America, where people are dressing dogs in baby clothes and putting them in strollers.

America Needs Immigrants Now More Than Ever
From falling birthrates to labor shortages, if you want to make America great again, the economic case for opening borders has never been stronger.


It's because of those swipe left/right dating apps. Until they are outlawed breeding is doomed in America.
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,277
8,201
136
Ok, so who will buy the products these machines create if people don't have money themselves? Some say, govt will give basic income. But where will the govt get money from? It can't work that way

Well obviously, we'll build other machines to buy the products created by the first lot of machines. Then another lot of machines to complain about consumerism and lecture the previous two lots of machines about spiritual values and living the simple life.
 
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OWR88

Senior member
Oct 27, 2013
231
73
101
Economists in the 50s were saying by 1970 we'd have a fully mechanized agricultural industry due to the trends back then...then we took in tens of millions of immigrants and the cratering wages in agriculture has postponed large amounts of mechanization for nearly 50 years. Truth is there is no such thing as a dark future, everything is about tradeoffs. Japan is a much nicer country to live in the than the U.S., they've dealt with demographic change with technology which has made it a highly technologically advanced society. They've automated a lot of things of which we dont do here because low wages stalls automation--which additionally increases our carbon footprint.

Immigration is not a absolute good.
False. Immigration is the number 1 indication of a leading country. Case in point, why don't you move to Japan? Or any other nation where immogranys don't want to go....exactly.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,945
20,215
136
False. Immigration is the number 1 indication of a leading country. Case in point, why don't you move to Japan? Or any other nation where immogranys don't want to go....exactly.

I'd move to Europe if I had more money saved up and my fiance was done with school. As it is we are on a 5 year plan. Is that another case in point?
 
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