Question 'Ampere'/Next-gen gaming uarch speculation thread

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Ottonomous

Senior member
May 15, 2014
559
292
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How much is the Samsung 7nm EUV process expected to provide in terms of gains?
How will the RTX components be scaled/developed?
Any major architectural enhancements expected?
Will VRAM be bumped to 16/12/12 for the top three?
Will there be further fragmentation in the lineup? (Keeping turing at cheaper prices, while offering 'beefed up RTX' options at the top?)
Will the top card be capable of >4K60, at least 90?
Would Nvidia ever consider an HBM implementation in the gaming lineup?
Will Nvidia introduce new proprietary technologies again?

Sorry if imprudent/uncalled for, just interested in the forum member's thoughts.
 

beginner99

Diamond Member
Jun 2, 2009
5,223
1,598
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RDNA2 better be balls amazing.
doubt that will help. AMD will just slot in at prices NV set simply due to supply. I doubt AMD has the wafer supply to do a price war to gain market share. (zen3, consoles, high APU demand,...)

EDIT:

Due to samsung 8nm I actually expected NV to have plenty of supply. How else uses that process? Or maybe yields are that bad? Or NV simply rushed release date so that the lower pricing appear to be their generosity and not AMD forcing their hand?
 
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A///

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2017
4,352
3,155
136
doubt that will help. AMD will just slot in at prices NV set simply due to supply. I doubt AMD has the wafer supply to do a price war to gain market share. (zen3, consoles, high APU demand,...)

EDIT:

Due to samsung 8nm I actually expected NV to have plenty of supply. How else uses that process? Or maybe yields are that bad? Or NV simply rushed release date so that the lower pricing appear to be their generosity and not AMD forcing their hand?
Is it wafer supply or is it demand outstripping supply? I caught some claim earlier about the 3900X selling over 100K units in July 2019 alone. Think it was on overclockers. That kind of demand for a resurgent AMD plus a global pandemic with no end in sight as more and more people are buying computers is going to be tough on any company. Even during Intel's heydays before their troubles, they could not keep up with demand. Intel not meeting demand became a regular thing only in the last few years, whereas product launches hampered them then. We don't know when the the PS5 and XBOX S/X were taped out. Even if AMD can get 600-640 good chiplets off of a 300mm wafer at 20-30K units a month, they're still going to be hampered by demand. It's a great product. There is a pandemic. Intel still can't catch up with demand after several years now. I'm not worried about AMD in the least. If AMD can't improve their products, then I'll begin worrying.

Samsung 8nm has had issues forever. J from love and respected was correct about data being leaked before last summer of how terrible Samsung's process was. They're practically giving the wafers away. There's been reports of NVidia growing frustrated with Samsung back in December, six months after the initial leaks. So when it was reported NVIdia had booked 7nm at TSMC, everyone assumed the cards would be on them. I'm sure NVidia did book 7nm space, but it's for their far more expensive products that need to be efficient yet powerful. If NVidia switch to TSMC halfway into the lifecycle, it should be easier then to establish how bad Samsung 8nm was and or if Ampere's a poorly designed uarch, too.

NVidia's marketing video from a few weeks ago was wild. Out of this world. I hadn't seen a video like that in a long time whereby a company justified power increases and a top end card that weighs around 4.5 lb.
 
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DiogoDX

Senior member
Oct 11, 2012
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A///

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2017
4,352
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The Gaming X Trio is probably the nicest none FE card available unless you're into RGB, sparkles and other weird design choices.
 

Grooveriding

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2008
9,108
1,260
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doubt that will help. AMD will just slot in at prices NV set simply due to supply. I doubt AMD has the wafer supply to do a price war to gain market share. (zen3, consoles, high APU demand,...)

EDIT:

Due to samsung 8nm I actually expected NV to have plenty of supply. How else uses that process? Or maybe yields are that bad? Or NV simply rushed release date so that the lower pricing appear to be their generosity and not AMD forcing their hand?

Prior situation similar to this, AMD put out the 5870/5850, probably their last really successful cards. Nvidia answered with Fermi and the 480/470, which are similar to 3090/3070 in eating lots of power. Nvidia got it right though with the cooling on these new cards though.

They have an opportunity to do it again, but not if they release slow GPUs. If AMD really had something competitive, why not show something right now to steal nvidia's thunder with Ampere? With how bad the stock is on 3080/3090, customers might actually wait if they had some idea it was worth it.

I'll buy a 3080 as soon as I can reasonably find one in stock without gluing myself to my keyboard. If I knew AMD was about to kneecap with something good I'd wait, everyone has low expectations of AMD though. Show us something now if it's good, it would be a great time to drop some information. Not some vague marketing comment on social media, some actual fps and power usage numbers in a relevant game if the GPU is decent.
 

CastleBravo

Member
Dec 6, 2019
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271
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I'll buy a 3080 as soon as I can reasonably find one in stock without gluing myself to my keyboard. If I knew AMD was about to kneecap with something good I'd wait, everyone has low expectations of AMD though. Show us something now if it's good, it would be a great time to drop some information. Not some vague marketing comment on social media, some actual fps and power usage numbers in a relevant game if the GPU is decent.

I'm in the same boat, but I'm not too concerned about power numbers. IMO, people are only scared of >300W GPUs because both NV and AMD have a history of putting terrible blower style coolers on them. I don't think most people would ever notice the extra ~30W of a 3080 with how good the coolers are this generation. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if RDNA2 ends up louder than Ampere even if it does have greater efficiency.

I still think AMD might put out a GPU that will slightly exceed the performance/price of the 3080, but I doubt they are going to completely blow it out of the water, especially when you consider DLSS and RTX performance. I do hope AMD can prove me wrong though.
 
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TESKATLIPOKA

Platinum Member
May 1, 2020
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I'm in the same boat, but I'm not too concerned about power numbers. IMO, people are only scared of >300W GPUs because both NV and AMD have a history of putting terrible blower style coolers on them. I don't think most people would ever notice the extra ~30W of a 3080 with how good the coolers are this generation. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if RDNA2 ends up louder than Ampere even if it does have greater efficiency.

I still think AMD might put out a GPU that will slightly exceed the performance/price of the 3080, but I doubt they are going to completely blow it out of the water, especially when you consider DLSS and RTX performance. I do hope AMD can prove me wrong though.
I never said(wrote) what you quote supposedly from me, please remove It or change It to Grooveriding, who actually wrote It. Thank you.

.
 
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CP5670

Diamond Member
Jun 24, 2004
5,527
604
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The Gaming X Trio is probably the nicest none FE card available unless you're into RGB, sparkles and other weird design choices.

That one and the Asus TUF card seem like the best choices, in terms of temps and noise. Many of the others are either too expensive or have low power limits with probably bottom binned chips.
 
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A///

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2017
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That one and the Asus TUF card seem like the best choices, in terms of temps and noise. Many of the others are either too expensive or have low power limits with probably bottom binned chips.
Oh shoot, I'd forgotten about that one. It's the first one that got reviewed, IIRC. For 50-80 bucks you may give up 1-2 FPS due to restrictions, but you're looking at possibly 10-20*C cooler because of the axial design, not to mention more quiet.
 
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CastleBravo

Member
Dec 6, 2019
119
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I saw that. Looks easily fixed for existing cards with a BIOS that reduces clocks, new cards should have the power delivery beefed up.

For now looks like you should stick to buying a FE, Asus or EVGA card.

I wonder if most people with affected cards would be able to keep the same clocks with a minor undervolt and a flattened voltage/frequency curve.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,005
6,451
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What's the reasonable argument for significantly more AMD users, than NVidia users, choosing not to participate?

Plus it isn't like Steam Contradicts other sources:

I don't think it's an unreasonable argument to make, but there's two problems with using an unreliable source as sole support for such an argument.

The first is that the onus to provide support for a claim falls solely on the person making it. No one even need offer a counter argument and your own isn't any stronger for lack of them.

The second is that a single argument need compete against yours. Your argument isn't playing one on one against any others. Rather it's competing against the field of all other arguments.

If we were to posit that there are more AMD cards being sold than we suspect it's likely a result of dozens of very small reasons that each contribute a tiny amount as opposed to one single reason that's been overlooked. One anecdotal example is that I have a Mac which has an AMD GPU in it. I just don't use that computer to play games and it doesn't have Steam installed. It will never show up in the hardware survey even though I have Steam installed on other machines.

I wouldn't doubt that NVidia has sold more cards than AMD in the PC market for a good while now, but I don't necessarily believe that AMD's sales are as low as purported by some either. If I really wanted to substantiate that claim though I'd need a lot more than Steam hardware survey results.

If you think this standard of evidence is too burdensome, it's only the same that's used in the medical field or anywhere else where lazy reasoning based on bad assumptions or unreliable data could get someone killed. Speculation on forums probably won't lead to untimely death so it isn't necessary, but it doesn't change that unreliable evidence is still unreliable and can easily lead to bad conclusions and incorrect beliefs.

Ryan lives in Oregon near the giant fires. But since nobody can buy the cards anyway, them being late should not matter too much.

I wonder if there's a connection here. Cards that draw a lot of power and run really hot and wildfires in a place where someone is reviewing those cards... Hmm....

/s

There are two different things here,

What you are saying is that the RX5700XT can compete in Raster performance with the RTX2070 Super at $100 less in the latest games. Thats fine I havent disputed this one.

The other thing that im talking about is the Product market slot , where the RX5700XT was originally put in the Graphics Card market when released.
AMD wanted to compete in the $300-$400 TAM against the TU106 (RTX2060 and RTX2070 at the time). NAVI 10 was designed at 250mm2 just so to be able to slot in that segment.
That is why they attacked the RTX2070 that had a MSRP of $499 and made NVIDIA to release the RTX 2060 Super at $399 so they could compete against the RX5700XT at the same price.

Now if you say that RX5700XT is RTX2070 Super competitor, then you take a very small die Card and put it against a must better product both in Performance and Features. The result is that the majority of people will spend $100 more for more features (RTX) and same Raster performance when one product has NVIDIA in the name.

This is not what AMD originally wanted from RX5700XT, they wanted to compete against the RTX2070/2060 Super , because the RX5700XT have much better Raster performance at the same price. Not same performance at lower price.

So to sum up, you are talking about performance competition and Im talking about Product segment competitor.

Product segments aren't something that consumers care about and that companies can't predict with any accuracy. AMD doesn't have exact information on NVidia's plans any more than NVidia has exact information on AMD's plans. You can try to design a product for a segment of the market that exists as more of a mental conception than anything concrete, but it's just a guess to guide development or to serve as a planning exercise for business reasons. When the product comes to market that segment may not actually exist for a variety of reasons.

AMD need not even have to consider competing products to develop their own. They could merely approach those choices from the perspective of wanting to build cards that they can sell for $200, $300, $400, $500, $700, and $900 and develop solely on what they believe they would need to offer to get consumers to pay those prices and what's feasible to build to recoup any investment into the production of that product.

We've seen too many examples of AMD trying to build a product that didn't have a lot of things pan out. Drivers never materialized to utilize new hardware features, the clock speeds couldn't be pushed as high as necessary, a part of the architecture caused an unanticipated bottleneck, or any other number of issues that have plagued AMD cards for a while now. In the end any intentions that the might have had were dashed on the rocks, but since they have cards to sell the only thing most consumers care about is value per dollar and AMD can't escape the actual results along with the perception of their brand's value.

Also RT performance for everything below the 2080 Ti was garbage unless you were interested in the novelty of using RT. Anyone who bought a 2070 SUPER for anything other than raster performance was deluding themselves a bit in my mind. Hopefully NVidia keeps seeing the same kind of generational improvements to their RT tech as the jump from Turing to Ampere, otherwise it's going to be a long time before it filters into the mainstream in a way that's beneficial to consumers. I'm skeptical about how much the new consoles will be able to do with it and have a feeling it will end up being another gimmick used to push new hardware, but that's hardly NVidia's fault.
 
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Heartbreaker

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2006
4,262
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I don't think it's an unreasonable argument to make, but there's two problems with using an unreliable source as sole support for such an argument.

You haven't demonstrated that Steam Data is unreliable. Throwing FUD at it, doesn't make it unreliable, and as I pointed out in the post you quoted, Overall Steam results concur with the other sources.

Steam is handy because we get to see more granular results, but they still line up with other less granular sources.
 
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CP5670

Diamond Member
Jun 24, 2004
5,527
604
126
Oh shoot, I'd forgotten about that one. It's the first one that got reviewed, IIRC. For 50-80 bucks you may give up 1-2 FPS due to restrictions, but you're looking at possibly 10-20*C cooler because of the axial design, not to mention more quiet.

I think the $750-ish OC versions actually have the same power limits as the FE, but much better cooling and noise, so probably slightly higher boost in practice as well.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,761
4,666
136
If RDNA2 bombs, then the TUF is what I'll get. Chances are high AMD will mess it all up.
There are chances high based on what exactly?

The reality is, the chances are high that AMD actually has really good architecture, which is in certain aspects better than Ampere.
 
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GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
7,063
7,487
136
There are chances high based on what exactly?

The reality is, the chances are high that AMD actually has really good architecture, which is in certain aspects better than Ampere.

-Allow people to be unpsyched Glo.

Also, basically their last (Let's see... Navi, Vega, Polaris, Fiji, Hawaii...) 5 products had major issues or were seriously disappointing in some capacity or another.
 

Thala

Golden Member
Nov 12, 2014
1,355
653
136
The reality is, the chances are high that AMD actually has really good architecture, which is in certain aspects better than Ampere.

If this were the case we would heard more from AMD at Ampere launch. The Silence is telling, that they do not have a winner at their hands. I mean not even a single "Poor Ampere" add - not that this would mean much given AMDs track record...
 
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Midwayman

Diamond Member
Jan 28, 2000
5,723
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If this were the case we would heard more from AMD at Ampere launch. The Silence is telling, that they do not have a winner at their hands. I mean not even a single "Poor Ampere" add - not that this would mean much given AMDs track record...

Maybe they have actually learned?
 
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