Question 'Ampere'/Next-gen gaming uarch speculation thread

[Ottonomous]

How much is the Samsung 7nm EUV process expected to provide in terms of gains?
How will the RTX components be scaled/developed?
Any major architectural enhancements expected?
Will VRAM be bumped to 16/12/12 for the top three?
Will there be further fragmentation in the lineup? (Keeping turing at cheaper prices, while offering 'beefed up RTX' options at the top?)
Will the top card be capable of >4K60, at least 90?
Would Nvidia ever consider an HBM implementation in the gaming lineup?
Will Nvidia introduce new proprietary technologies again?

Sorry if imprudent/uncalled for, just interested in the forum member's thoughts.

 

[CP5670]

I might get a 3080 or 3080ti, but am expecting even higher prices than what we are seeing with the 2080/2080ti right now. All computer parts are in high demand with the virus these days, and they are just competing with their own previous generation unless AMD really brings out a serious high end alternative. To be honest, my existing 1080ti is still good enough 90% of the time for 4K/60hz, but I would like to do VR and 4K/120hz at some point.

 

[FaaR]

Going to be an expensive few months with these launches and then the next iPhones in October.

Tell me about it. Looking at new phone, watch and pad this autumn (my iPad Air 2 only holds charge for a few days of very light use now.) Also, PS5 coming, which I'm definitely buying, but then I "need" a HDR-capable TV and dolby atmos surround sound, so new Sonos Arc playbar... *sigh*

Not buying TV/soundbar until next year though, this year's TVs are meh technically and have sketchy HDMI 2.1 support as well.

Oh, and I want to replace my AMD Vega too. It was a nice GPU back in the day, but man, it's getting long in the tooth now.

Also historically AMD usually had no counter to nVidia's top 1-2 parts

That history only goes back about five-six years or so. Before then, green and red teams were fairly evenly matched, red team even giving green team a bloody nose every now and then, particularly on price/performance. Radeon 4890 versus the GF280 (was it yeah?) was particularly lopsided when the AMD card dropped down to around $200.

Man those were the days eh! High end cards for that low amount of money has been unheard of ever since... Had crossfired 4890s at one point, they ran Crysis 60FPS/1200P downclocked to 800MHz core frequency, when my previous 8800GTXes in SLI could only manage about 30fps at full clock speed. Those hellish blowers were hardly noisy at all then!

 

[raghu78]

I doubt that very much. As of right now AMD has no answer to 2080, 2080S, 2080Ti and Titan RTX, hence nVidia prices them accordingly.

Also historically AMD usually had no counter to nVidia's top 1-2 parts, that's why nVidia created their own $1000+ price-point. You can only do things like that when you're "competing with yourself".

It's the same reason why Intel rehashed 4c/8t for 5+ years but magically added more cores as soon as Ryzen arrived.

Did AMD have a counter to Intel before Zen ? So looking at the past as an indicator of future is not going to work all the time. RDNA2 is a huge leap in efficiency as seen from Xbox Series X specs. Nvidia is having to push GA102 to 350w for a reason. But that still might not be enough. We will see in a couple of months when RDNA2 launches.

 

[Tup3x]

Teaser from NVIDIA:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1292808003897311232

 

[MrTeal]

Full node drop, I don't think nVidia is going to prove as historically greedy as the other team with their full node drop. The idea of a 251mm part costing $400 may fly for the red team, but I don't think the green team would be as forgiving. If you care more about names it may be a bit different of course, I'm used to looking at die size(which gives us an idea of actual cost to manufacture) not marketing names. Price versus performance we should see a *MASSIVE* uplift compared to last generation. I'm expecting the $500 parts will be in the range of the current over $1K parts.

Pretty sure the last time nvidia had a node drop they led with $700 for a 314mm² die, while AMD launched a 232mm² die a month after at $240. I wouldn't get too excited about nvidia's track record in that regard.

 

[moonbogg]

I got a few bucks set aside for this. What are your thoughts on availability at launch? I don't feel optimistic. I expect them to sell out before I even have time to add one to the cart, and then stay sold out for months. Ebay scalping and the whole bit.

 

[badb0y]

I got a few bucks set aside for this. What are your thoughts on availability at launch? I don't feel optimistic. I expect them to sell out before I even have time to add one to the cart, and then stay sold out for months. Ebay scalping and the whole bit.

I am expecting very limited stock. If you want it, make sure you get it as soon as they go up.

 

[tajoh111]

Pretty sure the last time nvidia had a node drop they led with $700 for a 314mm² die, while AMD launched a 232mm² die a month after at $240. I wouldn't get too excited about nvidia's track record in that regard.

What made AMD price the chip as such was the presence of the gtx 1070 which was priced at 379/449.

This card was well priced, particularly at 379 where it was near the top of the price to performance charts.

239 to 250 was the only price that made sense for the rx 480 since the GTX 1070 was 50% faster than it.

Add in the likely pricing of the gtx 1060 considering the price of the gtx 1060, AMD didn't have a choice in terms of pricing.

We can only hope that Nvidia prices their rtx xx70 well like most years. The xx70 series like the 670, 970 and 1070 have typically caused AMD to scramble and reprice their cards.

 

[jpiniero]

I got a few bucks set aside for this. What are your thoughts on availability at launch? I don't feel optimistic. I expect them to sell out before I even have time to add one to the cart, and then stay sold out for months. Ebay scalping and the whole bit.

Should be good actually. Prices are going to be high and Big Navi should be enough of an incentive to ensure availability is good right away so people don't wait.

 

[sontin]

Dont forget guys: This is only the low end. The bigger chips are coming next year.

 

[jpiniero]

Dont forget guys: This is only the low end. The bigger chips are coming next year.

I definitely wouldn't call $1200+ GPUs low end!

 

[moonbogg]

Too bad there's nothing worth playing, lol. Honestly don't know why I care this time around. If the Ti is over $1000 I'll probably just giggle and let this generation pass on by like the last. Also, rumors suggest a TSMC 7nm refresh will be here just next year. Probably looking at a 3090Ti that smokes everything.

 

[Saylick]

Too bad there's nothing worth playing, lol. Honestly don't know why I care this time around. If the Ti is over $1000 I'll probably just giggle and let this generation pass on by like the last. Also, rumors suggest a TSMC 7nm refresh will be here just next year. Probably looking at a 3090Ti that smokes everything.

I was just thinking about that. I haven't been following PC games as much recently, but what games on the PC market today are worth playing at 4K resolution with the settings cranked up to the highest that justifies buying the most badass GPU on the market? I know Cyberpunk 2077 is coming out but that's just one game and I don't think it makes much sense to blow $700+ on one $60 game.

I get the impression that console games are the ones driving the video game industry forward these days, particularly in ways that don't make having a monster GPU a requirement. As much as we still joke about it, the days of Crysis are over; in my opinion, the video games that had the most impact on the industry in the last few years are either console-exclusive AAA titles or widely-accessible multiplats that cater to the lowest denominator and were not built to require needing a $700+ GPU. If you look at what MS and Sony are doing for the next generation, they are essentially pushing games that fit within one of those two categories, with Sony betting big on AAA exclusives that leverage the PS5's unique hardware and controller, and MS betting big on Gamepass and making games that can be played across a wide variety of systems.

 

[beginner99]

I am expecting very limited stock. If you want it, make sure you get it as soon as they go up.

Who else uses Samsung 8nm? I would expect NV should actually have a ton of capacity in contrast to AMD. In fact if NV so whishes they could probably "cripple" AMD by setting low prices and actually being able to have the needed supply for that.

 

[moonbogg]

^yeah. I honestly can't think of a single game worth upgrading for right now. Also, that's cute you think they will cost anywhere close to $700. Adorable.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Too bad there's nothing worth playing, lol. Honestly don't know why I care this time around. If the Ti is over $1000 I'll probably just giggle and let this generation pass on by like the last. Also, rumors suggest a TSMC 7nm refresh will be here just next year. Probably looking at a 3090Ti that smokes everything.

- It's curiously frustrating since my 980 TI is handling business like a champ at the moment, but I'm in a somewhat similar situation where I am interested in the new release from an academic standpoint and am interested in upgrading purely as a hobbyist and less from a practical need perspective.

I thought moving up to 1440p 144hz would bring my card to a screeching halt but it's still playing newish games at ultra settings remarkably well.

I'm heavily invested in price performance of this new generation if only to put a strong downward pressure on cards like the 2080s and the 2080TI.

 

[jpiniero]

^yeah. I honestly can't think of a single game worth upgrading for right now. Also, that's cute you think they will cost anywhere close to $700. Adorable.

Hey, the official MSRP on the 2080 was $699. It's possible that the 3080's MSRP will be the same... will there be a model at that price though.

I'm heavily invested in price performance of this new generation if only to put a strong downward pressure on cards like the 2080s and the 2080TI.

nVIdia ended production of the high end Turing a long time ago. There might not be that much supply left. By the time you see reviews the 2080/Ti supply will be gone.

 

[Saylick]

^yeah. I honestly can't think of a single game worth upgrading for right now. Also, that's cute you think they will cost anywhere close to $700. Adorable.

I said "$700+" didn't I?

And who knows, if Nvidia can't offer affordable 4K gaming at $700, maybe AMD will.

Regardless, my point was that there isn't any game on PC that requires a high-end GPU like Crysis did. Ultra high-end GPUs were always a luxury item but it seems even more so these days, and if the quantity of this class of GPUs being sold decrease each year, the only way to financially justify their existence is to raise the price each generation.

 

[Bouowmx]

Also, rumors suggest a TSMC 7nm refresh will be here just next year.

The rumor I am aware of is Hopper (Ampere successor) on TSMC 5 nm for 2021. (My thoughts: could be A100 successor in 2021, and GeForce in 2022)
From DigiTimes (in May, before the A100 was revealed): https://www.tomshardware.com/news/nvidia-ampere-hopper-release-graphics-cards

 

[Saylick]

The rumor I am aware of is Hopper (Ampere successor) on TSMC 5 nm for 2021. (My thoughts: could be A100 successor in 2021, and GeForce in 2022)
From DigiTimes (in May, before the A100 was revealed): https://www.tomshardware.com/news/nvidia-ampere-hopper-release-graphics-cards

I wouldn't rule out a TSMC N7P refresh of Ampere, but it would necessitate TSMC having enough 7nm capacity to fit in those wafer orders, i.e. current 7nm customers would have to start transitioning away from 7nm onto a newer node (e.g. AMD). Recall that TSMC N7P is more expensive than SS 8nm by like 50% (or said the other way around, SS 8nm is 1/3rd cheaper than TSMC N7/N7P) but the cost difference might be reduced by this time next year given how TSMC will want to transition their customers onto the higher profiting TSMC N5 node, which makes it easier for Nvidia to justify the move.

 

[MrTeal]

What made AMD price the chip as such was the presence of the gtx 1070 which was priced at 379/449.

This card was well priced, particularly at 379 where it was near the top of the price to performance charts.

239 to 250 was the only price that made sense for the rx 480 since the GTX 1070 was 50% faster than it.

Add in the likely pricing of the gtx 1060 considering the price of the gtx 1060, AMD didn't have a choice in terms of pricing.

We can only hope that Nvidia prices their rtx xx70 well like most years. The xx70 series like the 670, 970 and 1070 have typically caused AMD to scramble and reprice their cards.

Could you buy a 1070 at $349? My memory of that time is a bit hazy, but I remember the 1070 being almost impossible to find even at FE pricing. Availability on the 480 wasn't much better to be fair. I sure hope you're right about x70 pricing and that we don't have another round of $600 FE though, that was a tough pill for the 2070 when it was basically what I'd paid for my 1080Ti a year earlier.

 

[KentState]

Could you buy a 1070 at $349? My memory of that time is a bit hazy, but I remember the 1070 being almost impossible to find even at FE pricing. Availability on the 480 wasn't much better to be fair. I sure hope you're right about x70 pricing and that we don't have another round of $600 FE though, that was a tough pill for the 2070 when it was basically what I'd paid for my 1080Ti a year earlier.

I don't recall exaclty when the AIB launched, but this is what I paid for a 1070 back in the day.

 

[AtenRa]

Who else uses Samsung 8nm? I would expect NV should actually have a ton of capacity in contrast to AMD. In fact if NV so whishes they could probably "cripple" AMD by setting low prices and actually being able to have the needed supply for that.

AMD will be TSMCs 7nm biggest customer with 30000 WPM in H2 2020 (out of 140K total 7nm WPM), I dont see them having problems with capacity.

 

[CakeMonster]

I am expecting very limited stock. If you want it, make sure you get it as soon as they go up.

This is extremely annoying. IIRC the 2080Ti lanuched and went for sale within minutes of the same launch and there were no benchmarks. Even if I knew I needed and wanted something faster, asking me to buy without knowing the performance was offensive to put it mildly. And I would still be punishing myself, since it sold out fast, and waiting would make me get it even later.........

If the Ti is over $1000 I'll probably just giggle and let this generation pass on by like the last. Also, rumors suggest a TSMC 7nm refresh will be here just next year. Probably looking at a 3090Ti that smokes everything.

It's not that easy either. Turns out the 2080Ti wasn't that bad a deal, considering it lasted two years as the best performaning card. That hadn't happened for 10+ previous years, there was always something faster the next year. Would you risk having to wait 2 years all of a sudden?

Seems like we're screwed regardless TBH.

 

[CP5670]

I was just thinking about that. I haven't been following PC games as much recently, but what games on the PC market today are worth playing at 4K resolution with the settings cranked up to the highest that justifies buying the most badass GPU on the market? I know Cyberpunk 2077 is coming out but that's just one game and I don't think it makes much sense to blow $700+ on one $60 game.

I get the impression that console games are the ones driving the video game industry forward these days, particularly in ways that don't make having a monster GPU a requirement. As much as we still joke about it, the days of Crysis are over; in my opinion, the video games that had the most impact on the industry in the last few years are either console-exclusive AAA titles or widely-accessible multiplats that cater to the lowest denominator and were not built to require needing a $700+ GPU. If you look at what MS and Sony are doing for the next generation, they are essentially pushing games that fit within one of those two categories, with Sony betting big on AAA exclusives that leverage the PS5's unique hardware and controller, and MS betting big on Gamepass and making games that can be played across a wide variety of systems.

Yes, that's the only game I can think of that might justify a new video card. I'm also interested in high end VR and 4K at 120hz, but those are fairly niche uses. The business model of games today (especially singleplayer ones) makes it very hard to push the graphics any further without costing so much to develop that the game has to be primarily driven by the console market. PC gaming is bigger now than it has ever been, but the technology is increasingly mature and doesn't have much room to grow at this point.