Question 'Ampere'/Next-gen gaming uarch speculation thread

[Ottonomous]

How much is the Samsung 7nm EUV process expected to provide in terms of gains?
How will the RTX components be scaled/developed?
Any major architectural enhancements expected?
Will VRAM be bumped to 16/12/12 for the top three?
Will there be further fragmentation in the lineup? (Keeping turing at cheaper prices, while offering 'beefed up RTX' options at the top?)
Will the top card be capable of >4K60, at least 90?
Would Nvidia ever consider an HBM implementation in the gaming lineup?
Will Nvidia introduce new proprietary technologies again?

Sorry if imprudent/uncalled for, just interested in the forum member's thoughts.

 

[CakeMonster]

There's been a record 2 years without a new top performing card. I haven't had to wait this long for 10+ years. That's certainly not a rush. I'm sure they would have loved to earn more money selling an upgrade to 2080Ti 6 or 12 months ago.

 

[Konan]

There's been a record 2 years without a new top performing card. I haven't had to wait this long for 10+ years. That's certainly not a rush. I'm sure they would have loved to earn more money selling an upgrade to 2080Ti 6 or 12 months ago.

Exactly, totally agree.

There are way many more reasons that are logical Vs “rushing to launch because scared of AMD”

 

[Karnak]

I don’t think that they are worried about AMD as much as you think they are. You’re making some massive assumptions to fit your conscious narrative.

There's a reason for why you will see SKUs with double the amount of VRAM which was originally planned. And why there will be a 24GiB SKU which is not a Titan like the Titan RTX but rather the new 2080Ti. With 13GiB more of VRAM. Hint: It's not because Nvidia loves their customers so much.

 

[Konan]

There's a reason for why you will see SKUs with double the amount of VRAM which was originally planned. And why there will be a 24GiB SKU which is not a Titan like the Titan RTX but rather the new 2080Ti. With 13GiB more of VRAM. Hint: It's not because Nvidia loves their customers so much.

How do you know what was originally planned? Someone’s opinion? Somebody’s leak? Do you work for Nvidia?

If what you are saying is true.... That is down to competition not timing. The only timing is the ability to be nimble and adapt quickly to market environments.

As far as I’m aware there was a 24 GB card at the high end that was always leaked as planned. That was a 3090.
The only source of a 20 GB card SKU was wccftech with kopitekimi saying possible with a new sku.

Edit: seems the 20G card rumour has legs today via. VideoCardz and Chiphell.

 

[JasonLD]

Are you sure about that?

Then why Nvidia is RUSHING the launch of next gen GPUs? There is ONE reason why we see those GPUs so early.

Ask yourself, why is Nvidia rushing this launch, if AMD has inferior products? Do they have inferior products?

Almost 2 years since first Turing GPUs came out and Turing refresh came out July of last year. I don't see any more than Nvidia sticking to their usual launching schedule.

 

[BenSkywalker]

Hint: It's not because Nvidia loves their customers so much.

"NVidia killer" or bust. 20% faster across the board for AMD, is the only option, all of their credibility is tied up on this point. Every bit of hype, all of the viral efforts, everything comes down to this. The credibility of all their hard-working .... fans.... is all tied up on this point.

Besides, we know nVidia doesn't have any consumer cards coming this year, they don't have any consumer Ampere coming at all, and if they did it would need a six hundred watt power connector.

The time is close, we'll see how well everyone speculated.

 

[DXDiag]

Are you sure about that?

Then why Nvidia is RUSHING the launch of next gen GPUs? There is ONE reason why we see those GPUs so early.

Rushing? NVIDIA ALWAYS launches first, Maxwell launched first, Pascal the same, and Turing the same too .. and in each case they had a far SUPERIOR product, that held the crown by a wide gap. AMD only launched months later. This time looks no different, in fact their marketing seems confident they have an amazing product on their hand this time, as the marketing campaign eclipses that of Turing and RTX.

 

[Bouowmx]

So much edging and denial with the next generation of graphics cards, a very high level of hype for NVIDIA to move past 16/12 nm, and AMD (Big Navi) to properly compete with NVIDIA's best. Hype since 2018.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

At this point it's a god damn nickle to anyone that can get me 1080ti raster performance for something resembling $300.

RTX 3060 should be in that zone....

Edit:
Also glad Glo showed up and didn't disappoint. You're the man Glo!

 

[Konan]

At this point it's a god damn nickle to anyone that can get me 1080ti raster performance for something resembling $300.

RTX 3060 should be in that zone....

I hope so. What was a 2060 at launch $350 and the Super variant was $400?? I think an RTX 3060 might be $400.

Got a feeling the pricing is going to be much higher at least on the higher end.... I reckon two of the cards will be priced at $999 and $1599 unsure of which models and I think they might hold something back for AMD's post launch.

 

[Stuka87]

I hope so. What was a 2060 at launch $350 and the Super variant was $400?? I think an RTX 2060 might be $400.

Got a feeling the pricing is going to be much higher at least on the higher end.... I reckon two of the cards will be priced at $999 and $1599 unsure of which models and I think they might hold something back for AMD's post launch.

The 2060 (or super) are not close to the 1080Ti either. The 2070 Super is a tiny bit faster than a 1080Ti. So maybe the 3060 will get there, but not betting on it being $300.

 

[jpiniero]

I think had they been able to keep it on SS7, it would have been released by now. Maybe early June.

 

[Gideon]

"NVidia killer" or bust. 20% faster across the board for AMD, is the only option, all of their credibility is tied up on this point. Every bit of hype, all of the viral efforts, everything comes down to this. The credibility of all their hard-working .... fans.... is all tied up on this point.

Well I agree that AMD has a bunch of rabid fanboys and an insane Hype train. Considering how obnoxious most of them are and I doubt most of this is viral marketing. Visible AMDs marketing has been absolute Zero. It was minimal during NAVI release as well, compared to the stupid hype Raja generated for VEGA.
Pretty much Lisa Su has only mentioned the product a couple of times candidly when directly asked about.

But your 20% faster is a typical red-herring you choose randomly so you can claim you're right. You know fair-well that it won't be faster than the highest end Ampere even if the latter were 8nm, simply because it's 505mm2 and 80CUs. The most I've heard is that due-to the process advantage (if true) it could finally be somewhat competitive. AFAIK nobody worth listening to has claimed that it will actually beat nvidia by a large margin.

My hope is they'll be at least able to equal/narrowly beat the raster performance of a RTX 3080 for a similar price.

And you know what, if they did just that, It would still be a hell of an effort, considering the hole they were in with Vega. Essentially you could compare it to going from Excavator to Zen to Zen 2 vs a hypotetical Intel that actually delivered. And that with only a little over a year between RDNA1 and RDNA2 (RDNA3 whilw still facing rough odds would be in miles better spot than anything before it).

But I also do get your sarcasm considerning the crazy hype Navi generated (it was even supposed to be chiplet based!), then Big Navi and now RDNA3 (also chiplet based supposedly, though in reality it surely isn't). Despite this, trust me you would'n' be any better off with no AMD in graphics.

Rushing? NVIDIA ALWAYS launches first, Maxwell launched first, Pascal the same, and Turing the same too .. and in each case they had a far SUPERIOR product, that held the crown by a wide gap. AMD only launched months later. This time looks no different, in fact their marketing seems confident they have an amazing product on their hand this time, as the marketing campaign eclipses that of Turing and RTX.

Yeah, I also noticed that Nvidia surely is hyping this one up. Considering the comments somebody got out of an nvidia employees months back ("You'll be impressed") I'm pretty sure they have something up their sleeve.

 

[Glo.]

Rushing? NVIDIA ALWAYS launches first, Maxwell launched first, Pascal the same, and Turing the same too .. and in each case they had a far SUPERIOR product, that held the crown by a wide gap. AMD only launched months later. This time looks no different, in fact their marketing seems confident they have an amazing product on their hand this time, as the marketing campaign eclipses that of Turing and RTX.

Then why they have cancelled 103 die, and are releasing RTX 3080 using the 102 die, which has never happened before?

 

[exquisitechar]

Yeah, I also noticed that Nvidia surely is hyping this one up. Considering the comments somebody got out of an nvidia employees months back ("You'll be impressed") I'm pretty sure they have something up their sleeve.

I mean, it's still a big node shrink. It's going to be far better than Turing and people will eat it up. "3070 is 2080ti tier performance with more features and better RT performance? Amazing!" is what the reactions will be like. Ampere will sell like hotcakes. It will just be worse than it would have been on N7 and will come with the caveat of increased power consumption, which most people will overlook.

 

[Tup3x]

Then why they have cancelled 103 die, and are releasing RTX 3080 using the 102 die, which has never happened before?

No point to speculate about that at this point - once we know the facts it gets more interesting. If they want to push RT hard that might be one reason. Also who knows, maybe they got sweet deal from Samsung that the size isn't as important. (Are there even other relevant Samsung 8nm customers? Assuming that Samsung it is.)

 

[moonbogg]

I don't think the Nvidia hype train has that much momentum this time around, to be honest. There is hype, but it's been reduced by the price increases and low performance of last gen. If people thought they could get a real high-end card for under $700 as they've always been able to in the past, I bet the hype train would be flying off the track right now. $700 puts you in the mid-range these days. That's just not exciting.

 

[Mopetar]

NVidia should just release a video of one of their new cards rendering a fully real-time ray traced train barreling down the tracks.

I think that would get people excited and get the point across.

 

[exquisitechar]

I don't think the Nvidia hype train has that much momentum this time around, to be honest. There is hype, but it's been reduced by the price increases and low performance of last gen. If people thought they could get a real high-end card for under $700 as they've always been able to in the past, I bet the hype train would be flying off the track right now. $700 puts you in the mid-range these days. That's just not exciting.

That no one has high expectations for the performance/dollar of the new cards is something that works in their favor. They can have high margins and still wow people with how much better Ampere is in that department than Turing. Samsung wafers are cheap and die sizes are down across the board compared to Turing...considering that and, IMO, the threat that next gen consoles pose to NV's low/mid range, I am not anticipating another price hike like Turing's.

Pascal owners need an upgrade and Turing really wasn't it for most people. Those people will be looking for a new card. The hype train will happen.

 

[Stuka87]

That no one has high expectations for the performance/dollar of the new cards is something that works in their favor. They can have high margins and still wow people with how much better Ampere is in that department than Turing. Samsung wafers are cheap and die sizes are down across the board compared to Turing...considering that and, IMO, the threat that next gen consoles pose to NV's low/mid range, I am not anticipating another price hike like Turing's.

Pascal owners need an upgrade and Turing really wasn't it for most people. Those people will be looking for a new card. The hype train will happen.

We don't actually know die sizes. I would expect them to be of similar size. The smaller node just lets them get more onto that size die.

 

[Ajay]

We don't actually know die sizes. I would expect them to be of similar size. The smaller node just lets them get more onto that size die.

I think we'll still be seeing large dice for the high end cards. How large depends on how deep NV goes on RT and DLSS.

 

[Elfear]

Rushing? NVIDIA ALWAYS launches first, Maxwell launched first, Pascal the same, and Turing the same too .. and in each case they had a far SUPERIOR product, that held the crown by a wide gap. AMD only launched months later. This time looks no different, in fact their marketing seems confident they have an amazing product on their hand this time, as the marketing campaign eclipses that of Turing and RTX.

I agree with you that Nvidia releasing Ampere in the near future is not due to them scrambling because of RDNA2. Nvidia typically has excellent business sense and execution. However, they do not ALWAYS launch first as you've stated. Fermi vs Evergreen? Kepler vs Southern Islands?

 

[exquisitechar]

I think we'll still be seeing large dice for the high end cards. How large depends on how deep NV goes on RT and DLSS.

GA102 is big, but significantly smaller than TU102 still.

 

[DooKey]

GA102 is big, but significantly smaller than TU102 still.

Not surprising. New node.

 

[KompuKare]

It is reported that NVIDIA’s board partners are ready to launch its new graphics cards at the same time as NVIDIA unveils its reference models.

Now, that is a surprise. The AIB will love it, but what made Nvidia change their minds? AIB backlash? But after 4 years of F's Editions why show AIB some love now?

Maybe they know something about RDNA2, or want to pre-empty the new consoles? Or has Zen given AMD better a relationship with Taiwanese OEMs as most AIBs also make motherboards, and Nvidia fear this?

Anyway, good news for buyers.

90% efficiency of PSU and assuming a load of 90% (worst case) gives 206w.
8C/16T at 3.66 Ghz draws 54w from Renoir measurements.

Sorry, but I keep seeing this mistake being made in far too many places. PSU efficiency does not work that way:
1000W PSU can output 1000W. If it is 80% efficient it would draw 1250W (1000 / 0.8) leaving it to get rid of 250W of waste heat somehow (noisy).
A more realistic 90% efficient PSU would draw 1111W leaving it get rid of 111W of waste heat.