An Ongoing, Nationwide Housing Crisis: A Story of Paper Millionaires, Zoning, and Not Enough Housing

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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,791
34,712
136
The smoke and flames from burning contents will kill you just as fast as the smoke and flames from a burning structure.

I would suggest reading through the IRC if you'd like to know what's involved.

I'm not sure why you think I'm talking about not installing smoke detectors when what I'm talking about is not doing this:

 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,880
20,192
136
One thing we should remember is that developers != landlords; there are some that are integrated, but many just build, sell, and move on. Regardless, with the hollowing out of government capacity, I don't think you're going to get any new buildings sans a developer anytime soon. The overall idea is to make the rules for building easier, so that building isn't restricted to your megadeveloper.

Second, the argument was never about "high-end" development only. You're conflating issues. There are two things: 1) many developers today only focus on the higher end, because piecemeal rules and development means that only high-end places pencil out for making any money; they're not going to build at a loss, and 2) major metro areas often have people that can afford market rate in the first place - housing has a filtering effect - people with greater means move into the newer places with more amenities, leaving older, naturally affordable units for others (after all, people can really only live in one home).

There are some links in this post: http://www.portvapes.co.uk/?id=Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps&exid=thread...-and-not-enough-housing.2615467/post-41092630

(this is a summary of the Blocksandlots PDF: https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/do-new-housing-units-next-door-raise-your-rents)
And here is one on filtering effects: https://www.planetizen.com/news/202...ilters-naturally-occurring-affordable-housing

I actually work in the industry. I know developers that do a few homes at a time, and others that do midrise projects, and I am familiar with the ones that do skyscrapers. Everything newly built is luxury this and luxury that. Because there is such a shortage of housing they can cater towards only the high end and not worry about a lack of demand. You can look at Jersey City - in the last 10 years has built a ton of units per capita. Yet somehow all of it has been at the top end of the market. Whether they knock down a single family and put up two condos, whether they knock down a few houses and put up a mid-rise building, whether they build a six or ten unit building, or whether they build a 500 unit building. That's all it is. All top rate market value units. Rents have soared across the board, so have condo prices. People are getting displaced left and right because that is driving up all the rents, plus a huge chunk of landlords prefer to renovate when the lease is up and cash in on the top rents. Middle and lower class people are all pushed out. I've been part of deals that do that. This is for over ten years now, and you're going to tell me nobody is getting displaced or priced out? I've lived through it.

The fact is I have acknowledge a million times supply and demand is the big issue, and zoning laws are terribly restrictive, and I am all for building tons more housing. That has never changed. I don't need a lecture on supply and demand, it's all I talk about in regards to housing when I speak to NIMBY's.

But mandating 10% affordable housing is totally fair, and if you are strict about it, you think these developers are not going to still want the profits of the 90% units at high market rate. If you want to claim you are a liberal with empathy, you can work within the constraints of supply and demand and a measly 10% affordable housing mandate. You can make rules that help mitigate it for small-time developers. This is not rocket science.

To dismiss any affordable housing mandate is not based in reality of how it affects people, and simply lacks any empathy for people.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,880
20,192
136
I'm not sure why you think I'm talking about not installing smoke detectors when what I'm talking about is not doing this:

View attachment 87536

I saw my first one of those being built on one of my rounds during work, I was like, holy fucking dumb batman. I read about the technology letting them build 4 and 5 over ones for larger buildings and I was like, jesus christ, it's a fucking matchbox with more people in it.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,791
34,712
136
I saw my first one of those being built on one of my rounds during work, I was like, holy fucking dumb batman. I read about the technology letting them build 4 and 5 over ones for larger buildings and I was like, jesus christ, it's a fucking matchbox with more people in it.

I'm in the camp of switching over to concrete for these but letting them have fewer entire building active life safety systems which would not be needed since the whole structure isn't gonna burn without them. This is basically what happens in most of Europe.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,791
34,712
136
But mandating 10% affordable housing is totally fair, and if you are strict about it, you think these developers are not going to still want the profits of the 90% units at high market rate. If you want to claim you are a liberal with empathy, you can work within the constraints of supply and demand and a measly 10% affordable housing mandate. You can make rules that help mitigate it for small-time developers. This is not rocket science.

To dismiss any affordable housing mandate is not based in reality of how it affects people, and simply lacks any empathy for people.

I think I can live with a 10% IZ requirement past a certain unit count if the process to get entitlements and permits to actually build is insanely easy, quick, and straightforward with zero opportunities for NIMBYs to fuck the developer over. Some places use IZ at much higher percentages in bad faith to prevent any development also and they should be stopped.
 
Reactions: Brainonska511
Dec 10, 2005
24,395
7,313
136
I'm in the camp of switching over to concrete for these but letting them have fewer entire building active life safety systems which would not be needed since the whole structure isn't gonna burn without them. This is basically what happens in most of Europe.
You could also do mass timber, which takes advantage of our greater wood resources relative to Europe, and is still pretty flame resistant.
 
Reactions: K1052
Dec 10, 2005
24,395
7,313
136
I actually work in the industry. I know developers that do a few homes at a time, and others that do midrise projects, and I am familiar with the ones that do skyscrapers. Everything newly built is luxury this and luxury that. Because there is such a shortage of housing they can cater towards only the high end and not worry about a lack of demand. You can look at Jersey City - in the last 10 years has built a ton of units per capita. Yet somehow all of it has been at the top end of the market. Whether they knock down a single family and put up two condos, whether they knock down a few houses and put up a mid-rise building, whether they build a six or ten unit building, or whether they build a 500 unit building. That's all it is. All top rate market value units. Rents have soared across the board, so have condo prices. People are getting displaced left and right because that is driving up all the rents, plus a huge chunk of landlords prefer to renovate when the lease is up and cash in on the top rents. Middle and lower class people are all pushed out. I've been part of deals that do that. This is for over ten years now, and you're going to tell me nobody is getting displaced or priced out? I've lived through it.

The fact is I have acknowledge a million times supply and demand is the big issue, and zoning laws are terribly restrictive, and I am all for building tons more housing. That has never changed. I don't need a lecture on supply and demand, it's all I talk about in regards to housing when I speak to NIMBY's.

But mandating 10% affordable housing is totally fair, and if you are strict about it, you think these developers are not going to still want the profits of the 90% units at high market rate. If you want to claim you are a liberal with empathy, you can work within the constraints of supply and demand and a measly 10% affordable housing mandate. You can make rules that help mitigate it for small-time developers. This is not rocket science.

To dismiss any affordable housing mandate is not based in reality of how it affects people, and simply lacks any empathy for people.
I'm fine with 10%, if the project is over a certain size to support that subsidy by the other buyers or tenants, but we need to be careful, because those cutoffs can lead to people only building up to the cutoff limit instead.

As for luxury this and that - if you work on the industry, you should know that it is a completely BS term that simply means "new".
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,395
7,313
136
The smoke and flames from burning contents will kill you just as fast as the smoke and flames from a burning structure.

I would suggest reading through the IRC if you'd like to know what's involved.
Seems like a problem that detached housing would also face, and not something strictly applicable to multifamily dwellings.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,880
20,192
136
I'm fine with 10%, if the project is over a certain size to support that subsidy by the other buyers or tenants, but we need to be careful, because those cutoffs can lead to people only building up to the cutoff limit instead.

As for luxury this and that - if you work on the industry, you should know that it is a completely BS term that simply means "new".

Oh we make fun of the luxury term all the time, luxury traffic, luxury Farmers markets, luxury everything. But for large buildings they do add a lot of amenities and just charge out the ass. And they are not using builder grade finishes, but well more than a notch above.

And there are some that use the word luxury and it's actually pretty high end.

My point is in an area that has grown more units per capita than probably most of the country in over 10 years, rents have only gone up dramatically, prices have only gone up dramatically, diversity has gone down, and lots of people get displaced.

If around 10% of the 15,000 units built in the last decade were affordable housing that's a good amount of people that are not displaced and keeps the area diverse.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,791
34,712
136
My point is in an area that has grown more units per capita than probably most of the country in over 10 years, rents have only gone up dramatically, prices have only gone up dramatically, diversity has gone down, and lots of people get displaced.

Ehh the the NYC metro really has not done great at this metric.


 
Reactions: Brainonska511

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,754
49,398
136
Ehh the the NYC metro really has not done great at this metric.


View attachment 87538
Yeah, what he's saying is the opposite of reality. NYC has had very low housing build rates and they look to be getting even worse.

And again, the idea that housing construction causes prices to increase on net is insane. If it were actually true then that is essentially an unlimited money cheat code from a video game. If every house I build makes that house and all the others more valuable the answer would be to build unlimited houses.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,791
34,712
136
Yeah, what he's saying is the opposite of reality. NYC has had very low housing build rates and they look to be getting even worse.

And again, the idea that housing construction causes prices to increase on net is insane. If it were actually true then that is essentially an unlimited money cheat code from a video game. If every house I build makes that house and all the others more valuable the answer would be to build unlimited houses.

I think the issue is perceptual. If you go to certain parts of the city and metro there is a lot of construction happening in relatively small areas that are zoned for it or where you can get a variance. If you are standing in say Jersey City or LIC and looking at all the towers going up there is some inclination to think that there must be a lot of supply.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,596
12,726
146
And if you build up instead of out, you can put more houses on the same patch of land, reducing the price via increased density.
I wonder if NYC could just not tax sqft over the 50th floor or whatever is reasonable. Bet that'd get some apartments built.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,754
49,398
136
I think the issue is perceptual. If you go to certain parts of the city and metro there is a lot of construction happening in relatively small areas that are zoned for it or where you can get a variance. If you are standing in say Jersey City or LIC and looking at all the towers going up there is some inclination to think that there must be a lot of supply.
I think that's a big part of it. There are several construction projects going on 4th ave of big apartment buildings and people in my neighborhood say exactly that - that there's tons of construction going on. They really don't get the scale of NYC and how much construction we ACTUALLY need, and how low our per capita housing builds really are.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,791
34,712
136
I never said NYC, I said Jersey City.

JC has built way more housing per capita than NYC but they are part of the same market. NYC underbuilding has in no small part triggered the boom across the river. Though local politicians are starting to make some noise that JC is overdeveloped and entitlements might become harder to come by in the future. The market is still short many thousands of units.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,880
20,192
136
Yeah, what he's saying is the opposite of reality. NYC has had very low housing build rates and they look to be getting even worse.

And again, the idea that housing construction causes prices to increase on net is insane. If it were actually true then that is essentially an unlimited money cheat code from a video game. If every house I build makes that house and all the others more valuable the answer would be to build unlimited houses.
except I specifically said Jersey City.

again, I specifically use the argument that NYC builds less per capita than most other major cities in my discussions with NIMBY's and in past arguments here.

Jersey City is not NYC.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,880
20,192
136
as you can see, JC has been putting up tons of units per capita compared to other cities, but almost all geared to the wealthier.


and again, people are being displaced, priced out, and it's become more vanilla. JC is a very diverse city, but where things are being built, diversity is going down for the most part.

if 1500 of those 15000 units were affordable, that would be amazing, developers would still be super rich, and it would be better for everybody.


"Jersey City is the downtown multifamily construction champion of the East Coast based on the data, coming in with the 8th-most impressive transformation of the decade."
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,791
34,712
136
NYC market rents are probably much more to blame for displacement in JC than new development which in many cases has gone on vacant or former commercial/industrial land. JC is not NYC but it is part of it's housing market for sure.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,880
20,192
136
NYC market rents are probably much more to blame for displacement in JC than new development which in many cases has gone on vacant or former commercial/industrial land. JC is not NYC but it is part of it's housing market for sure.
of course it's based on the metro area market.

but since we can't count on every surrounding city and locality doing their share, JC should protect its residents a little bit. Again, with nothing unreasonable because we need to build a ton, but 10% IZ makes sense within that model. I fail to see how developers won't still get filthy rich, but you keep a more diverse community and don't kick everyone out. LIke I said, one yacht instead of two. To me, if you are saying any IZ is bad, then well, you are for that second yacht at the expense of a better society.

It's not just where there are lots and rezoning from commercial to residential, this is also happening in parts of the city that rely on knockdowns and new builds, not usually skyscrapers, but definitely mid-rise buildings are in there.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,791
34,712
136
of course it's based on the metro area market.

but since we can't count on every surrounding city and locality doing their share, JC should protect its residents a little bit. Again, with nothing unreasonable because we need to build a ton, but 10% IZ makes sense within that model. I fail to see how developers won't still get filthy rich, but you keep a more diverse community and don't kick everyone out. LIke I said, one yacht instead of two. To me, if you are saying any IZ is bad, then well, you are for that second yacht at the expense of a better society.

It's not just where there are lots and rezoning from commercial to residential, this is also happening in parts of the city that rely on knockdowns and new builds, not usually skyscrapers, but definitely mid-rise buildings are in there.

I don't think a certain level of IZ is inherently bad but it is a trade off. I'd much prefer for there to be so much supply that it is not needed.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,880
20,192
136
I don't think a certain level of IZ is inherently bad but it is a trade off. I'd much prefer for there to be so much supply that it is not needed.
Sure if you can get everybody onboard with taking away lots of zoning barriers, But that's not happening. Hochul just tried but it failed spectacularly by the I got mine fuck you NIMBY crowd. So it's happening in pockets, like in JC and a few other cities. You just let market rate housing go up fast it's still going to take a long time to get to a supply and demand equilibrium. And by then you will have created such wealth disparate neighborhoods and cities it would be bad for anybody who isn't more well off.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
20,623
5,314
136
Seems like a problem that detached housing would also face, and not something strictly applicable to multifamily dwellings.
Detached housing has egress from every bedroom, plus the front and often a back door. Even jumping out of a second story window is easily survivable, that becomes iffy on the third floor, and will almost certainly cause massive trauma from the forth.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
72,680
6,195
126
Perhaps the problem is that the only logical solution to the housing problem, the lack of affordable and available housing, is based on the fact that the logic of the solution is based on the system that exists within which it appears but unfortunately has as a side effect that it violates human nature. This would be like building better helmets and altering the rules of American football to prevent brain damage from the game instead of putting an end to the sport. Too many people have their ego pleasures and financial lives attached to the sport.

As long as real estate equals money the poor will never have a decent place to live.
 
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