An Ongoing, Nationwide Housing Crisis: A Story of Paper Millionaires, Zoning, and Not Enough Housing

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MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,854
20,181
136
Yes, the idea that development causes displacement is a common idea among people who don’t understand how housing works.

In addition people don’t seem to realize that development often happens in poorer neighborhoods precisely because it’s banned in wealthier ones. In NYC for example the effects of eliminating zoning restrictions would lead to a construction boom in Park Slope where I live, not East New York.

being against even 10% affordable housing with tens and tens of thousands of market rate value properties being built fast is pretty easy when you sit on your thrown on your owned property in Park Slope and say let them continue building the priciest here, the peasants can get some housing in East New York at best.

honestly I am amazed at some people's total lack of awareness.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,366
7,254
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considering I work in real estate and cover some areas over the past decade that have become highly desirable very quickly, with lots and LOTS of development, except ALL at the top end price points, this is a load of horseshit.

I wonder who did those studies? Any link?
Don't have a collection of links; it's really just information I've seen on Twitter and stories on housing over the years. Here's one or two that might help point in the right direction: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/a...n-nimby-homeowners-affordable-housing/661288/ and https://www.planetizen.com/news/202...er-rents-surrounding-neighborhoods-study-says

Those areas became "desirable" because people were just being pushed out by rising rents in the places they were living, so they moved to areas with cheaper rents. Some developers and landlords could capitalize on that shift by building in areas with less political capital to block the developments.

Anyway, you could see more developments targeted at broader segments of the market if there were more clear rules to build by-right instead of needing big developers to navigate and grease the wheels of an arcane system of community boards, zoning appeals boards, subjective design reviews, and lots of other little rules that are explicitly designed to reduce the amount of housing built. But for now, because we take such a piecemeal approach, the only thing that gets built are fewer-unit buildings that end up being targeted towards the higher end, thanks to their higher profit per unit (when there are fewer units to dole out).

(Also, big shock, but new housing is more expensive than used housing; just like new items are more expensive than used items)
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,366
7,254
136
being against even 10% affordable housing with tens and tens of thousands of market rate value properties being built fast is pretty easy when you sit on your thrown on your owned property in Park Slope and say let them continue building the priciest here, the peasants can get some housing in East New York at best.

honestly I am amazed at some people's total lack of awareness.
The amount of housing being built in NYC is not enough. Thousands of units being built sounds like a lot, but when the deficit is in the hundreds of thousands, it's a drop in the bucket.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,691
49,286
136
The amount of housing being built in NYC is not enough. Thousands of units being built sounds like a lot, but when the deficit is in the hundreds of thousands, it's a drop in the bucket.
NYC has some of the lowest per capita builds of any big city.

It’s not a complicated idea. People want to live in park slope but get priced out, so they move to the next neighborhood and price those residents out. If you build in park slope where the genuine demand is, it stops this cycle.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,729
34,609
136
Housing production in NYC per capita has been low for a long time and now it's almost totally imploded compared to other major US cities.

What seems like "a lot" of construction is actually way too little construction and has been for decades.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,854
20,181
136
The amount of housing being built in NYC is not enough. Thousands of units being built sounds like a lot, but when the deficit is in the hundreds of thousands, it's a drop in the bucket.
Right. NYC needs tens and hundreds of thousands of units, so does North NJ. I know this and use it in my arguments to build more all the time.

Considering the amount of money developers stand too make from that many market rate units, they can certainly handle 10% affordable housing.

Where are those studies that show that building tons of high end market rate developments does not displace people and in fact can bring rents down?

Please send them along.

It's pretty sad to see people worried about developers second and third yachts so much.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,366
7,254
136
Right. NYC needs tens and hundreds of thousands of units, so does North NJ. I know this and use it in my arguments to build more all the time.

Considering the amount of money developers stand too make from that many market rate units, they can certainly handle 10% affordable housing.

Where are those studies that show that building tons of high end market rate developments does not displace people and in fact can bring rents down?

Please send them along.

It's pretty sad to see people worried about developers second and third yachts so much.
One thing we should remember is that developers != landlords; there are some that are integrated, but many just build, sell, and move on. Regardless, with the hollowing out of government capacity, I don't think you're going to get any new buildings sans a developer anytime soon. The overall idea is to make the rules for building easier, so that building isn't restricted to your megadeveloper.

Second, the argument was never about "high-end" development only. You're conflating issues. There are two things: 1) many developers today only focus on the higher end, because piecemeal rules and development means that only high-end places pencil out for making any money; they're not going to build at a loss, and 2) major metro areas often have people that can afford market rate in the first place - housing has a filtering effect - people with greater means move into the newer places with more amenities, leaving older, naturally affordable units for others (after all, people can really only live in one home).

There are some links in this post: http://www.portvapes.co.uk/?id=Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps&exid=thread...-and-not-enough-housing.2615467/post-41092630

(this is a summary of the Blocksandlots PDF: https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/do-new-housing-units-next-door-raise-your-rents)
And here is one on filtering effects: https://www.planetizen.com/news/202...ilters-naturally-occurring-affordable-housing
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,691
49,286
136
One thing we should remember is that developers != landlords; there are some that are integrated, but many just build, sell, and move on. Regardless, with the hollowing out of government capacity, I don't think you're going to get any new buildings sans a developer anytime soon. The overall idea is to make the rules for building easier, so that building isn't restricted to your megadeveloper.

Second, the argument was never about "high-end" development only. You're conflating issues. There are two things: 1) many developers today only focus on the higher end, because piecemeal rules and development means that only high-end places pencil out for making any money; they're not going to build at a loss, and 2) major metro areas often have people that can afford market rate in the first place - housing has a filtering effect - people with greater means move into the newer places with more amenities, leaving older, naturally affordable units for others (after all, people can really only live in one home).

There are some links in this post: http://www.portvapes.co.uk/?id=Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps&exid=thread...-and-not-enough-housing.2615467/post-41092630

(this is a summary of the Blocksandlots PDF: https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/do-new-housing-units-next-door-raise-your-rents)
And here is one on filtering effects: https://www.planetizen.com/news/202...ilters-naturally-occurring-affordable-housing
I love how housing is the one area where people think supply and demand doesn’t work, or in some cases even insanely believe increasing supply RAISES prices. It’s a facially silly idea.

As far as ‘high end’ development goes this is also a fundamental misunderstanding of how housing works. New houses are generally for rich people, yes, the same way new cars are generally for rich people. You never hear that Ford has to stop building new trucks in order to bring car prices down because we all know how dumb that is. (And the pandemic car production slowdown showed)

Rich people move into the new houses. They don’t set demolition charges on their old place on their way out though, so someone of lesser means moves in to their old place and so on and so forth. People don’t realize that if you don’t build fancy condos for rich people they are still going to live somewhere - maybe in the place you want to live in because they can outbid you.
 
Reactions: Brainonska511

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
20,615
5,310
136
I love how housing is the one area where people think supply and demand doesn’t work, or in some cases even insanely believe increasing supply RAISES prices. It’s a facially silly idea.

As far as ‘high end’ development goes this is also a fundamental misunderstanding of how housing works. New houses are generally for rich people, yes, the same way new cars are generally for rich people. You never hear that Ford has to stop building new trucks in order to bring car prices down because we all know how dumb that is. (And the pandemic car production slowdown showed)

Rich people move into the new houses. They don’t set demolition charges on their old place on their way out though, so someone of lesser means moves in to their old place and so on and so forth. People don’t realize that if you don’t build fancy condos for rich people they are still going to live somewhere - maybe in the place you want to live in because they can outbid you.
The selling price of a new single family home is determined primarily by the improved lot cost. That should be about 30% of the selling price. As a given area becomes more popular, the lot price increases so the developers have to build more elaborate homes. Clearly there are other factors involved, but that's the basic formula.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,366
7,254
136
The selling price of a new single family home is determined primarily by the improved lot cost. That should be about 30% of the selling price. As a given area becomes more popular, the lot price increases so the developers have to build more elaborate homes. Clearly there are other factors involved, but that's the basic formula.
In many areas, lots can't be split and you can't build any sort of multi-unit building; so that also factors into what builders build. Even if the lot could support 2 modest-sized detached homes (or a townhouse or duplex or whatever), which would be cheaper to buy compared to new mini-mansion, it just doesn't get built because it is simply not allowed. They're not going to build cheaper and more affordable-sized homes on a large lot when they're restricted to 1 unit per lot.
 
Reactions: fskimospy

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
31,793
10,319
136
The selling price of a new single family home is determined primarily by the improved lot cost. That should be about 30% of the selling price. As a given area becomes more popular, the lot price increases so the developers have to build more elaborate homes. Clearly there are other factors involved, but that's the basic formula.
And if you build up instead of out, you can put more houses on the same patch of land, reducing the price via increased density.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,691
49,286
136
The selling price of a new single family home is determined primarily by the improved lot cost. That should be about 30% of the selling price. As a given area becomes more popular, the lot price increases so the developers have to build more elaborate homes. Clearly there are other factors involved, but that's the basic formula.
As others have mentioned you don't have to build a more elaborate home, you can just stack residences on top of each other.

Fancy homes are a choice, and that choice is often dictated because it is illegal to build multiple, more modest homes on the same plot.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,691
49,286
136
In many areas, lots can't be split and you can't build any sort of multi-unit building; so that also factors into what builders build. Even if the lot could support 2 modest-sized detached homes (or a townhouse or duplex or whatever), which would be cheaper to buy compared to new mini-mansion, it just doesn't get built because it is simply not allowed. They're not going to build cheaper and more affordable-sized homes on a large lot when they're restricted to 1 unit per lot.
I probably should have read this first as you beat me to it, haha.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
20,615
5,310
136
And if you build up instead of out, you can put more houses on the same patch of land, reducing the price via increased density.
Only to a certain extant. Yes, land price is spread over more units, but after 3 floors building requirements get expensive. Mechanicals get far more complex, fire safety becomes an issue with alarms and sprinkler systems, wider halls and fire doors, fire rated walls, things of that nature. Also, the basic structure becomes much more expensive because of the loads involved. Wind loads also become an issue requiring more bracing. All of those things add considerable construction cost.
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
31,793
10,319
136
Only to a certain extant. Yes, land price is spread over more units, but after 3 floors building requirements get expensive. Mechanicals get far more complex, fire safety becomes an issue with alarms and sprinkler systems, wider halls and fire doors, fire rated walls, things of that nature. Also, the basic structure becomes much more expensive because of the loads involved. Wind loads also become an issue requiring more bracing. All of those things add considerable construction cost.
Sure they add cost. And that can get factored into the price of the homes.

Let's say you capped it at 3 floors. To avoid all those cost drivers. That's still 3 houses per plot instead of 1 house per plot. You've reduced your land use by 66%
 
Reactions: Brainonska511

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
20,615
5,310
136
As others have mentioned you don't have to build a more elaborate home, you can just stack residences on top of each other.

Fancy homes are a choice, and that choice is often dictated because it is illegal to build multiple, more modest homes on the same plot.
See my post above. Yes, density helps, but you always reach the break even point somewhere along the way.
 

pauldun170

Diamond Member
Sep 26, 2011
9,133
5,072
136
They've built a lot of housing by me.
Week doesn't go by where wooded areas aren't bulldozed and new construction popping up.
Apartments galore.
700sq ft for an affordable 3k to 5k a month
Starter homes for 400k to 600k with super low taxes of 8k to 17k a year.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,729
34,609
136
Only to a certain extant. Yes, land price is spread over more units, but after 3 floors building requirements get expensive. Mechanicals get far more complex, fire safety becomes an issue with alarms and sprinkler systems, wider halls and fire doors, fire rated walls, things of that nature. Also, the basic structure becomes much more expensive because of the loads involved. Wind loads also become an issue requiring more bracing. All of those things add considerable construction cost.

We could eliminate some of the fire code expenses/limitations if we stopped building low/mid rise structures almost entirely out of flammable materials.
 
Reactions: Brainonska511

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
20,615
5,310
136
Sure they add cost. And that can get factored into the price of the homes.

Let's say you capped it at 3 floors. To avoid all those cost drivers. That's still 3 houses per plot instead of 1 house per plot. You've reduced your land use by 66%
Indeed you have. The question then becomes, which option nets the builder the most money? That breakdown will b different for every location.

I'm not against high density housing, if that's what you want it should be available to you. I prefer low density living so that's what I bought. There are rules in place to make sure that a slaughter house or junk yard aren't built next door. I like that.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,691
49,286
136
See my post above. Yes, density helps, but you always reach the break even point somewhere along the way.
Of course, and my point is and always has always been we should let the market figure out what that point is.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
20,615
5,310
136
We could eliminate some of the fire code expenses/limitations if we stopped building low/mid rise structures almost entirely out of flammable materials.
I'm pretty sure I don't want an iron couch or asbestos carpet.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,691
49,286
136
Indeed you have. The question then becomes, which option nets the builder the most money? That breakdown will b different for every location.

I'm not against high density housing, if that's what you want it should be available to you. I prefer low density living so that's what I bought. There are rules in place to make sure that a slaughter house or junk yard aren't built next door. I like that.
You're mixing up zoning restrictions. Nobody is arguing against industrial vs. residential zoning for exactly that reason - well that and safety as industrial zones are often toxic. What literally all the YIMBYS are arguing is that we should eliminate RESIDENTIAL zoning restrictions.

And yes, I completely agree with you - if you want to live somewhere low density that's your choice and if someone else feels differently that's their choice. What we don't want is the government FORCING people to make one choice or the other by banning construction of the alternative.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
20,615
5,310
136
Those are contents not the structure.
The smoke and flames from burning contents will kill you just as fast as the smoke and flames from a burning structure.

I would suggest reading through the IRC if you'd like to know what's involved.
 
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