Android, iOS, and Windows RT/8

[pcslookout]

In your personal opinion who do you think will have the most users in 2 years from now? You don't have to be right. Will any of these mobile OSes die you think ?

 

[dguy6789]

Probably Android with the most with iOS and Win8 being #2 and #3. I expect Win8 to eventually surpass iOS though but not within 2 years.

 

[Aikouka]

I think iOS and Android both have a place... not sure about Windows 8 though.

 

[Oyeve]

IMO android then win8. I don't see iOS gaining more than it has now unless it drastically changes.

 

[Dominato3r]

Latest version of the operating system? iOS
All operating system versions combined? Windows

 

[lothar]

Are you talking smartphones or tablets, or both?

 

[TuxDave]

IMO android then win8. I don't see iOS gaining more than it has now unless it drastically changes.

If you think it's Android > Win8 > iOS, that means you think that the largest group of people adopting Win8 will come from current iOS users.

 

[Steelbom]

In two years I think it will be the same as it is now, which is Android > iOS > Windows 8 RT. It would be very difficult for Apple to sell more iPhones, iPod touches, and iPads, than other companies sell Android devices.

 

[Nothinman]

It will be impossible for Apple or MS to surpass Google in pure user numbers with their restrictive licensing. Google will remain #1 because they're doing what MS did with PCs, allowing anyone and everyone to use their software on whatever hardware they want. MS will hopefully make WinPhone more suited towards business users and finish off RIM. And that leaves Apple at the bottom of the marketshare but with their hardware and software restrictions in place and probably with the highest per-device profits.

 

[dagamer34]

My 2 year prediction:

Desktop: Windows >>>>>>>>>>> Mac >>>>>>>>>> Chrome OS.
Smartphone: Android >>> iOS > Windows Phone.
Tablet: Windows 8/RT >>>>>>>>>> iPad >>>>>>>>> Android.

Reasoning:
Desktop: there's nothing major that will happen to shift desktop OS sales. Even if businesses hate Windows 8 with a passion, they will stick with Windows 7 for 10 years (and that's fine for Microsoft because they've already set the sunset date for 2020 and will probably never extend it. 8 years is enough time to get used to the Modern UI in Windows 8 and beyond.

Smartphone: Android will "rule" simply because it's free and will be on all low end phones today. However, I would tell people to avoid the trap of thinking that Android users will buy apps. That hasn't been true for the past year and shows no sign of occurring soon either. I counter that with the fact that despite Windows Phone only having only 2-3% marketshare, there are well over 100,000 apps on the Marketplace, indicating that those users are buying apps to fund 3rd party development. iOS stays around where it is because the unsubsidized price of an iPhone is astronomical compared to everyone else (hidden from American carriers because of subsidies) and the lack of an microSD card means Apple can charge you $200 for 64GB of flash which only cost $50 to buy. Yeah... that kind of thinking will never hit the "mass market".

Tablet: I don't separate Windows 8 from Windows RT simply because from a developer standpoint, it doesn't matter what end device you are using, they all run apps written with the WinRT APIs. If HBO makes a HBO GO app using the WinRT API, everyone with Windows 8/RT can use it, and Microsoft is banking on it (which is why it's shoved in your face all the time whether you like it or not, developers are happy you see it). That kind of reach is larger than what the iPad sells today or even 2 years from now. Android still has the same problem as before, there aren't enough people buying apps compared to iOS.

 

[ITHURTSWHENIP]

My 2 year prediction:


Smartphone: Android will "rule" simply because it's free and will be on all low end phones today. However, I would tell people to avoid the trap of thinking that Android users will buy apps. That hasn't been true for the past year and shows no sign of occurring soon either. I counter that with the fact that despite Windows Phone only having only 2-3% marketshare, there are well over 100,000 apps on the Marketplace, indicating that those users are buying apps to fund 3rd party development.

Number of apps has nothing to do with how much money is being spent on purchasing apps. If there was any real money in the WP marketplace, the big name companies would invest more resources to port their apps.

Apples situation is different than both MS and Google. They had millions of credit cards ready from the iPod days. Google still hasnt made the Play store available for a number of countries and they just recently started working on gift cards wich imo will be a major boost to app purchases.

 

[Dominato3r]

If you think it's Android > Win8 > iOS, that means you think that the largest group of people adopting Win8 will come from current iOS users.

It could also just be people buying Windows computer in general. Windows ships around ~350M units in volume a year, and starting this fall those could be considered part of the Windows 8 ecosystem.

 

[BenSkywalker]

If you think it's Android > Win8 > iOS, that means you think that the largest group of people adopting Win8 will come from current iOS users.

There are over 7 billion people on Earth, not all of them have an iOS or Android device yet. Actually, as of right now Android and iOS could both double the amout of users they have and still be behind Win8 RTM in a theoretical sense(not that that will happen mind you, but it is within the realm of possibility).

 

[Rottie]

Blackberry 10 will blow Windows 8 RT out of the water. Trust me cuz I know.

 

[OBLAMA2009]

a lot depends on how willing google and microsoft are to subsidize tablet sales. if surface really is $199 that will hook a lot of people

 

[akugami]

I don't think Apple is after market share. Don't get me wrong, they'd love to have Android's share numbers but they are really marketing themselves as a premium brand with premium pricing. The problem with that is that when your premium phone sales stagnate, it is a very quick drop to the bottom. Just ask RIM and Nokia.

 

[Skel]

Blackberry 10 will blow Windows 8 RT out of the water. Trust me cuz I know.

This idea come from that trendsetter roommate of yours that isn't impressed with the Surface?

 

[TuxDave]

There are over 7 billion people on Earth, not all of them have an iOS or Android device yet. Actually, as of right now Android and iOS could both double the amout of users they have and still be behind Win8 RTM in a theoretical sense(not that that will happen mind you, but it is within the realm of possibility).

I could be wrong but I can't really imagine a 2 year time frame to overtake iOS. I don't know how long Android took but I'm pretty sure it was more than 2 years.

 

[Dominato3r]

I could be wrong but I can't really imagine a 2 year time frame to overtake iOS. I don't know how long Android took but I'm pretty sure it was more than 2 years.

Hey, anything can happen. Windows 7 sold 630million licences in under 3 years. I'm cautiously optimistic about the platform.

 

[TuxDave]

Hey, anything can happen. Windows 7 sold 630million licences in under 3 years. I'm cautiously optimistic about the platform.

Hmm... I didn't think that Win8 count we were talking about included PC platforms. I thought it was specifically tablet and smartphone platforms.

But as with you, I'm hoping the Surface is really good. I want to buy a tablet already (still not sold on any tablet out there right now)

 

[vshah]

If you think it's Android > Win8 > iOS, that means you think that the largest group of people adopting Win8 will come from current iOS users.

the total number of smartphone users is also increasing rapidly. win8 users could be first time smartphone users as well.

 

[TuxDave]

the total number of smartphone users is also increasing rapidly. win8 users could be first time smartphone users as well.

As far as I can tell, the large boom of smartphone users was primarily lead by Android. You would really need MS to pull off the same thing to get it ranked in that order in 2 years. So would you say that MS has everything that enabled Android to succeed in that manner? Pricing? # of Partners?

So I'm still skeptical that the boom of new users will push Win8 smartphones to #2. You'll still need a mass migration of platforms. (iOS --> Android would help that as well)

 

[Oyeve]

I believe Win8 has a great chance. The way I see it, IOS, if it doesnt change drastically, will lose out to Win8 because IOS defectors will not go to android as it sees android as the enemy and may flock to Win8 as it is a neutral OS in their eyes.

 

[arod]

There are way too many ways you can "count".... you almost have to break it down by category or pool everything together.

I think overall will be relatively even between all 3.

By category:
I see win8 winning the pc/tablet category with ipad/mac in a somewhat close second and android way behind. On the phone side Android wins big with apple a close second and wp way behind.

I don't see wp8 doing anything in the market (and I've owned the samsung focus since day 1). I still think if ms was smart they would have put the full version of winRT on their phones. That would be at least something the others were not doing in the phone space.

 

[joutlaw]

Windows 8 RT isn't what I was hoping for. An enhanced version of ActiveSync isn't enough for Microsoft to catch up. We need something that can join a domain and be managed without a 3rd party tool.