Apple’s iPhone Is Closing In on Samsung Smartphone Sales

[dawheat]

No it isn't, but you already knew that. Not in the least. Samsung has better economies of scale, logistics, and marketing budget than SONY. What they do not have are better designers and product developers. They've exploited their advantages but, from an economist's perspective, have expanded too far and too fast. Now costs are catching up with them. Whereas virtually every other OEM has an ODM they can call upon to increase or decrease orders, Samsung relies on itself. That can be great when orders are up but devastating when they're down.

Again, Apple makes only a few products and they do a very good job. They also market them well and keep costs in line. Samsung is the polar opposite.

You want to paint a picture that it's hopeless for Samsung. Unfortunately that's not reality.

Devastating is a matter of perspective - maybe compared to Apple, Samsung's estimated Q4 4.7 billion in quarterly profit is poor, but compared to other OEMs bleeding money and looking to sell off their mobile divisions, it's night and day.

The Note 4 is a much better device than you want to give it credit for. Thankfully very few share your opinion and it's a device that can stand on its own merits against Apple's best.

Samsung is responding intelligently to their slowdown and what were weaknesses a year ago are turning into strengths. If Samsung really goes with mostly the Exynos 7420 for the S6, that'll be a great win for them, especially if it ends up truly being a superior SOC to the S810. Their memory group is killing it. The displays are class leading. Their build quality is massively improving. Their software is finally getting there.

It's been a tough year and again, they're never going to get their mobile division back to 2013, but I predict a reversal of the sales declines of 2014 and actually moderate growth in 2015.

 

[dawheat]

Frankly what should be applauded is Apple just killing it. If projections hold true and they have 40%+ y/o/y sales growth of iPhones, that is just ridiculous.

However the overall landscape doesn't feel like it's going to shift very much. Apple and Android (though an amalgamation of OEMs) will remain the dominant players. Some share globally will move towards Apple (instead of say 80% Android and 14% iOS, it may move to 75% Android and 20% iOS).

Chinese players will continue to pressure the low and mid-end tiers, though I imagine there's going to be multi-year resistance in markets like the US to buy flagship level Chinese phones.

Samsung is going to be ok, though no longer a major individual threat to Apple. LG looks like they'll be ok. Moto as well now that they're part of Lenovo. It's HTC, Sony, etc who want to compete at the high end who IMO are at the greatest risk of being squeezed completely out.

 

[Dari]

You want to paint a picture that it's hopeless for Samsung. Unfortunately that's not reality.

Devastating is a matter of perspective - maybe compared to Apple, Samsung's estimated Q4 4.7 billion in quarterly profit is poor, but compared to other OEMs bleeding money and looking to sell off their mobile divisions, it's night and day.

The Note 4 is a much better device than you want to give it credit for. Thankfully very few share your opinion and it's a device that can stand on its own merits against Apple's best.

Samsung is responding intelligently to their slowdown and what were weaknesses a year ago are turning into strengths. If Samsung really goes with mostly the Exynos 7420 for the S6, that'll be a great win for them, especially if it ends up truly being a superior SOC to the S810. Their memory group is killing it. The displays are class leading. Their build quality is massively improving. Their software is finally getting there.

It's been a tough year and again, they're never going to get their mobile division back to 2013, but I predict a reversal of the sales declines of 2014 and actually moderate growth in 2015.

We shall see. I like your optimism. It's cute. But, financially speaking, the news has not been good for them for the past year or so. You can paint a rosy picture for their product line but I doubt they can right their ship with tweaks of TW and apeing Apple design. Fact is people were buying terrible terrible Samsung phones for years and now they're not. It has nothing to do with TW or how ugly they are. It has everything to do with price. Even their midrange phones are stupidly overpriced. This, we know. The only way they can stop the bleeding is if they start closing factories and/or lower prices. At this point, as mentioned in the comments in that WSJ article, Samsung's competitors are not Apple but other Android competitors. It's really that simple.

 

[Dari]

Well if your attention span only lasts one sentence that explains a lot. :awe:

I prefer to separate the wheat from the chaff. Keep the latter to yourself.

 

[sweenish]

I've seen a lot more HTC phones "in the wild" since the M7 launched. If M9 rumors all hold out to be true, they'll manage to stick around, I think.

I can't speak to Sony. I want to love them, but they can't seem to get a grasp in the US market. And they're just slow enough with updates that I don't seriously consider them myself.

 

[Commodus]

Not surprising at all. They are the only maker for iOS phones while the Android market keeps fragmenting. They can be the biggest and still be a fraction of Android's total volume.

Here's the thing: Apple hasn't ever been tops in China. There's no doubt that Android has a larger overall share by a comfy margin, but it's interesting that Apple would go from several notches down to number one in a single quarter. It's probably a combination of the usual iPhone release rush with the company finally satisfying local tastes for larger phones.

 

[Ichinisan]

- I think the community of opinion on the Note 4 is clear, among users and reviewers.
- The metallic A-series are available now.
- Folks on xda have been reporting on 5.0 builds and their improvements

http://www.xda-developers.com/analysis-of-the-galaxy-note-3-android-5-0-leak/

- Geekbench results of the Exynos SOC have popped up and the Note 4 screen is obviously here to experience
- Gear VR is buyable and has gotten positive segment feedback

Outside the S6 which obviously no one knows, everything I included is pretty defensible and not just personal opinion. Your statement on the Note 4 sounds far more personal IMO since of all things TW has actually been lightened in the Note 4 and there are fewer Samsung apps installed. And more than specs, actual usage is better in real life, eg low light photos. It's actually refreshing to have things just work instead of being a meaningless spec on a Samsung device

Are you implying that Gear VR would have a positive impact in Samsung's smartphone market share?

 

[Ichinisan]

I've seen a lot more HTC phones "in the wild" since the M7 launched. If M9 rumors all hold out to be true, they'll manage to stick around, I think.

I can't speak to Sony. I want to love them, but they can't seem to get a grasp in the US market. And they're just slow enough with updates that I don't seriously consider them myself.

Brother bought the Xperia Play after reading Sony's public promise to release ICS for all Xperia phones.

Sony never released it. The phone lived and died with Gingerbread. The risk of having that experience again will forever be a deterrent when the Android platform is considered...

 

[Commodus]

So, Apple sold 74.5 million iPhones in the fourth quarter:

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2015/01/27Apple-Reports-Record-First-Quarter-Results.html

That's well above expectations (analysts were thinking about 65 million). Sounds like there's some merit to claims that it's tops in China, and it's not looking great for Samsung.

 

[WelshBloke]

I prefer to separate the wheat from the chaff. Keep the latter to yourself.

So you're saying not to quote any of your posts but keep them to myself?

OK, but that's not going to work as everyone else will still see the chaff you're posting.

 

[poofyhairguy]

Here's the thing: Apple hasn't ever been tops in China.

Yeah but just because they are doesn't mean it is anything they did during the year. They are on top by default because the Android Chinese market has turned into a bloodbath.

All of a sudden the Chinese Android market has turned into the most dynamic computer market out there. Unlike the rest of the world using Samsung/HTC/etc. the Chinese market is quickly creating these massive Chinese companies out of thin air that are carving up the demand. Without a subsidy to drive the high end they have this amazing middle range that didn't exist in Android in 2012, and that is being created by a relatively new Chinese company not an old electronics company like Sony/Samsung/LG/Moto/etc. As the old guard falls and these new companies rise the stable Apple island looks like a continent in comparison.

The same thing would never happen in North America because A. North Americans are scared of these Chinese OEMs and B. A lot of the companies are in crazy violation of US copyright law.

 

[dawheat]

Are you implying that Gear VR would have a positive impact in Samsung's smartphone market share?

Not immediately, but it is a promising area to invest it and a way to separate further from the herd. The work Oculus and Samsung have done is far more than developing another app - the deep level access Samsung has given was highlighted by Carmack as a key need and something that can't be easily switched on by another OEM. And Samsung has partnered with the VR leader.

So this is the type of seeds that are worthwhile - team up with a legit partner, work closely with them to create a truly unique product (mobile VR), and hopefully stay in it for the long haul. If the tech can continue to evolve, be even more portable, and get an ecosystem going, it can hopefully result in incremental long term sales.

Crap like Samsung payments, their own music hub, etc that just poorly duplicates Google functionality was a waste of time and did nothing to differentiate Samsung products.

 

[Dari]

So you're saying not to quote any of your posts but keep them to myself?

OK, but that's not going to work as everyone else will still see the chaff you're posting.

No, I'm saying if you have something to say just say it in front of the mirror.

 

[Phynaz]

So, Apple sold 74.5 million iPhones in the fourth quarter:

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2015/01/27Apple-Reports-Record-First-Quarter-Results.html

That's well above expectations (analysts were thinking about 65 million). Sounds like there's some merit to claims that it's tops in China, and it's not looking great for Samsung.

Apple is doomed.

 

[Dari]

Not immediately, but it is a promising area to invest it and a way to separate further from the herd. The work Oculus and Samsung have done is far more than developing another app - the deep level access Samsung has given was highlighted by Carmack as a key need and something that can't be easily switched on by another OEM. And Samsung has partnered with the VR leader.

So this is the type of seeds that are worthwhile - team up with a legit partner, work closely with them to create a truly unique product (mobile VR), and hopefully stay in it for the long haul. If the tech can continue to evolve, be even more portable, and get an ecosystem going, it can hopefully result in incremental long term sales.

Crap like Samsung payments, their own music hub, etc that just poorly duplicates Google functionality was a waste of time and did nothing to differentiate Samsung products.

Yeah, good luck with that. Let's see I can either spend $300 on a specially-made Oculus Rift that's reportedly better or $1000 on a phone and adapterD:

 

[Zaap]

So wait... does this mean Samsung might fall to *GAAAAAASP* number.... two??!!!!!! The "first loser" spot that *ahem* Apple occupies now?

Oh my goodness the dire consequences. Everyone on the Samsung Team will have to wear those "1st Loser" caps that the Apple Team is wearing now, while the Apple Team get to put a feather in their "WINNING!" caps.

The horrors.

 

[Dari]

So, Apple sold 74.5 million iPhones in the fourth quarter:

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2015/01/27Apple-Reports-Record-First-Quarter-Results.html

That's well above expectations (analysts were thinking about 65 million). Sounds like there's some merit to claims that it's tops in China, and it's not looking great for Samsung.

Those are crazy, stupid numbers. They're also the new normal for Apple.

 

[Commodus]

So wait... does this mean Samsung might fall to *GAAAAAASP* number.... two??!!!!!! The "first loser" spot that *ahem* Apple occupies now?

Oh my goodness the dire consequences. Everyone on the Samsung Team will have to wear those "1st Loser" caps that the Apple Team is wearing now, while the Apple Team get to put a feather in their "WINNING!" caps.

The horrors.

Heh, it's definitely not the end. I think people are pointing it out because of both Samsung's hubris and a lot of presumptions among diehard Android fans. Samsung tended to act as if its dominance was inevitable (see: extravagant events, including a GS3 launch billed the biggest event of any kind in 2012) and that it could coast almost as soon as it had a bonafide hit. As for the fans... well, there's a subset which convinced itself that Apple could never become the top smartphone manufacturer, and Samsung's lead was the "proof."

Also, it's important to note that the concern for Samsung doesn't revolve around short-term results, but long-term trends. It's doing some things to respond to both Apple and Chinese OEMs, but we don't yet know if those are effective. Sure, it's still making profits now, but what if the A-series and the GS6 don't help? Remember, BlackBerry was still profitable for quite a while before it became clear just how much the iPhone (and eventually Android) wrecked its business.

 

[Zaap]

For me, the absolute WORST thing that could happen to Samsung in the mobile space is them achieving Apple-like success and dominance. I personally don't want them at #1 if that was ever the result.

Great, so rather than a bunch of interesting and diverse models with features no one else has, I could instead look forward to Sammy resting on their laurels and letting rabid lines of camped out fans for a single model release every other blue moon be the driving force. Sounds fun, waiting years for a full model number refresh, but that #1 cheerleader T-shirt and the warm glow of having only the same choice as everyone else will more than make up for it, right?

Meh. Let Samsung fall to the bottom before that ever happens. Let them actually have to work at success the old fashioned way-out putting out a nice range of products, with plenty of good choices. If they can't be number one driven mostly by hype and laurel-resting vs that... then bring it.

 

[TreVader]

Heh, it's definitely not the end. I think people are pointing it out because of both Samsung's hubris and a lot of presumptions among diehard Android fans. Samsung tended to act as if its dominance was inevitable (see: extravagant events, including a GS3 launch billed the biggest event of any kind in 2012) and that it could coast almost as soon as it had a bonafide hit. As for the fans... well, there's a subset which convinced itself that Apple could never become the top smartphone manufacturer, and Samsung's lead was the "proof."

Also, it's important to note that the concern for Samsung doesn't revolve around short-term results, but long-term trends. It's doing some things to respond to both Apple and Chinese OEMs, but we don't yet know if those are effective. Sure, it's still making profits now, but what if the A-series and the GS6 don't help? Remember, BlackBerry was still profitable for quite a while before it became clear just how much the iPhone (and eventually Android) wrecked its business.

I think it's hard to argue samsung didn't "coast" design-wise between the GS4 and GS5. The GS3 was a huge upset with 4G LTE and that big HD screen. GS4 not so much, and GS5... well, you know the story.


The new Exynos 7420 is pretty awesome, I'm really impressed with the numbers it's putting up. If they can get somebody to do a decent job on the material design it could be another GS3 moment. Apple tends not to "wow" people as much with the S versions of their iphones (despite them being the superior devices).

I definitely think samsung will be #1 in the android space in 2015, I'm not sure if they lost the spot but LG and HTC definetly have stolen some of the limelight with their devices.

If samsung produces a great device and doesn't charge too much they have a good chance of coming back.

 

[Dari]

So, with yesterday's numbers from Apple and Samsung collapsing in China, I think it's safe to say that Apple is now #1. For some reason, Samsung has been ashamed to show their numbers for a couple of years now but the trend is clearly in the non-Samsung camp now. So glad I held on to them from 1997.

 

[Karl Agathon]

Also as someone who really hated touchwiz I think it's gotten a lot better on the note 4. Granted the last samsung phone I used was the S3 but it seems a lot better to me now.

+1

I recently took the leap from an S3 to the note 4. TW seems a lot lighter than it was with on the S3.

 

[dawheat]

So, with yesterday's numbers from Apple and Samsung collapsing in China, I think it's safe to say that Apple is now #1. For some reason, Samsung has been ashamed to show their numbers for a couple of years now but the trend is clearly in the non-Samsung camp now. So glad I held on to them from 1997.

Rolls eyes. Seriously, you're better off sticking with your threads about how your "coworker needs to break into her daughters phone".

It's ridiculous what you try to read into how a company reports earnings, especially in the last couple years of record sales and profit. Shame would honestly be more of a Japanese trait considering their combined mobile performance the last couple years.

Apple kicking ass is clearly is giving you ammo on your sad Samsung hate, but the trend has been obvious for 9 months due to their missteps. I'm fine with harsh criticism of any company, but your emotional hatred of them is always irritating to read.

 

[Dari]

Rolls eyes. Seriously, you're better off sticking with your threads about how your "coworker needs to break into her daughters phone".

It's ridiculous what you try to read into how a company reports earnings, especially in the last couple years of record sales and profit. Shame would honestly be more of a Japanese trait considering their combined mobile performance the last couple years.

Apple kicking ass is clearly is giving you ammo on your sad Samsung hate, but the trend has been obvious for 9 months due to their missteps. I'm fine with harsh criticism of any company, but your emotional hatred of them is always irritating to read.

You really should stick to the topic, child, instead of veering elsewhere. I am not an Apple customer but investor and this clearly puts a smile on my face. I don't "hate" any firm. I just have zero respect for predatory firms that ape innovators. And the numbers speak for themselves. Samsung? Their numbers are nebulous. It takes an army of analysts to even guess what their sales are.

 

[Midwayman]

Yeah this was obvious. With a large iPhone on the market I expect Apple to be a solid 50% of US phone sales for a few years. I also expect a cost difference between iOS and Android to become apparent.

Absolutely. A ton of pent up demand for a larger iphone is mostly going to hurt android as that's where the users will be coming from.

It'll be interesting when the cell companies finally kill subsidies for phones. Its obvious they're trying. The extra 'apple tax' will really become more apparent then. I wonder how many people will continue to pay it?