Apple smartphone shipment share hits bottom, lowest in 2 years

[Commodus]

I... don't get it. Regulators would certainly investigate the sale of these companies, but neither Apple nor Samsung is the legal property of its respective country.

If anything, Samsung controls government. It's known to have repeatedly bribed South Korean politicians, and it's so influential in its home country that officials are afraid of holding it to account. Chairman Lee Kun-Hee was pardoned on his financial wrongdoing and tax evasion crimes so that he could stay on the International Olympics Committee and help secure the 2018 Winter Olympics, for example.

At any rate: Samsung Electronics being sold off is highly unlikely, but it's still far likelier than Apple going bankrupt. Cupertino has over $200 billion in cash -- it could completely halt sales and last several quarters. For Apple to go bankrupt, its sales would have to crash so quickly that BlackBerry's fall from grace would seem slow by comparison. I know you fantasize about that scenario every day, Achtung, but it's not going to happen.

 

[StrangerGuy]

I... don't get it. Regulators would certainly investigate the sale of these companies, but neither Apple nor Samsung is the legal property of its respective country.

If anything, Samsung controls government. It's known to have repeatedly bribed South Korean politicians, and it's so influential in its home country that officials are afraid of holding it to account. Chairman Lee Kun-Hee was pardoned on his financial wrongdoing and tax evasion crimes so that he could stay on the International Olympics Committee and help secure the 2018 Winter Olympics, for example.

At any rate: Samsung Electronics being sold off is highly unlikely, but it's still far likelier than Apple going bankrupt. Cupertino has over $200 billion in cash -- it could completely halt sales and last several quarters. For Apple to go bankrupt, its sales would have to crash so quickly that BlackBerry's fall from grace would seem slow by comparison. I know you fantasize about that scenario every day, Achtung, but it's not going to happen.

Apple is practically Jesus when put beside Samsung in the Last Supper table of corruption.

 

[ThisIsChrisKim]

In the aftermath of the Korean war, the government worked hand in hand with industry to prop up the economy and bolster technology sector.

Also remember that many of the conglomerates in Samsung also employ and contribute a very substantial amount to the Korean economy. Korea is a small country of approximately 50m people. If these types of articles are to be believed (http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/engl...ion-samsung-hyundai-motor-more-33-korea’s-gdp), Samsung is almost 1/4 of Korea's entire GDP.

So if Samsung were to have a catastrophic failure in Korea, that could mean a lot of bad things for all the people they employ and the Korean economy.

On the other hand, Apple's collapse would be a much smaller portion of the American economy and employees and would overall hurt far less.

 

[Achtung!]

I... don't get it. Regulators would certainly investigate the sale of these companies, but neither Apple nor Samsung is the legal property of its respective country.

If anything, Samsung controls government. It's known to have repeatedly bribed South Korean politicians, and it's so influential in its home country that officials are afraid of holding it to account. Chairman Lee Kun-Hee was pardoned on his financial wrongdoing and tax evasion crimes so that he could stay on the International Olympics Committee and help secure the 2018 Winter Olympics, for example.

At any rate: Samsung Electronics being sold off is highly unlikely, but it's still far likelier than Apple going bankrupt. Cupertino has over $200 billion in cash -- it could completely halt sales and last several quarters. For Apple to go bankrupt, its sales would have to crash so quickly that BlackBerry's fall from grace would seem slow by comparison. I know you fantasize about that scenario every day, Achtung, but it's not going to happen.

Except having $200 billion in cash means nothing in terms of future finances.

 

[Commodus]

Except having $200 billion in cash means nothing in terms of future finances.

Except it does. Even if there were a catastrophic decline in sales (which is unlikely), Apple would have the cash to ride it out and reorganize. Bankruptcy means that you don't have enough money to pay creditors, and that's simply not going to be a problem here.

If you seriously believe that Apple faces a risk of going bankrupt in two years, you're ignorant of both basic finances and history. Even in Apple's darkest days, it took several years of trouble before the company appeared on the cusp of bankruptcy. That's going to be much harder now that it's the world's most valuable company.

 

[Artdeco]

In the investing community, there's a saying, "When the US catches a cold, the rest of the world develops pneumonia."

I would suggest that the phone manufacturers, with the exception of the more nimble Chinese manufacturers, have the same problem, and it'll continue. I'm not saying they're doomed, just like Apple isn't even close to doomed with 50 billion in sales and 10 billion in profits last quarter, but the days of exponential growth are pretty well done. As has been mentioned many times elsewhere and here, the market has matured, and we'll see much less volatile numbers going forward.

So maybe the posts suggesting everyone is doomed are a bit of a waste of time and effort...

Except maybe poor HTC. http://venturebeat.com/2016/05/09/holy-earnings-catastrophe-batman-htc-revenue-falls-64-in-q1/

 

[luv2liv]

HTC will probably get out of the mobile phone biz. no way can companies sell $600 phones as before when $200 are good enough for most normal people.
im sure HTC will survive in the VR biz.

 

[Commodus]

HTC will probably get out of the mobile phone biz. no way can companies sell $600 phones as before when $200 are good enough for most normal people.
im sure HTC will survive in the VR biz.

I hope it sticks around. I've had a soft spot for HTC (at least, from the One X era onward) in part because it's one of the few Android phone makers that seems to understand that design and the holistic experience matter. It definitely screwed up a few too many times, but the HTC 10 is everything that's good about the company's design: high quality, tastefulness, and proof that Android is often better-served by restraint than all-out customization (even Samsung is learning this, gradually).

It's a good thing that HTC is reported to be making the new Nexus roster, since I'm due for an upgrade to my N5 this year. Otherwise, I'd probably be buying an HTC 10 right now out of support.

 

[desura]

iirc the S models have been big sellers historically.


the biggest issue facing phone makers going forward is that phones from several years ago are still 'good enough' for most people (and current midrange phones, even stretching into the upper low range phones).

What I really want is good battery life. Like, an iPhone which can last for 3 days unplugged.

 

[pcslookout]

What I really want is good battery life. Like, an iPhone which can last for 3 days unplugged.

I want a week.

 

[WelshBloke]

im sure HTC will survive in the VR biz.

That's a pretty niche market to keep a company the size of HTC going.

I'm not sure why they are doing so badly in the phone market. They have the history and plenty of people say they prefer their hardware and software to their competitors.

 

[ChronoReverse]

I like the Htc phones I've owned (One X and Nexus One) but I think Htc made two separate missteps that still haunt them.

The first is the period between the Desire and the One X. Where phones like the Thunderbolt accrued a reputation for bad battery life and mediocre cameras for Htc.

They did a good job with the M7 but the 4MP Ultrapixel camera ultimately didn't deliver. Still wasn't bad but the M8 with the same camera started the slide and then the notoriously hot M9 with a poor camera sunk Htc's reputation again.


So far they seem to have gotten rid of the crazies responsible for all that when they made the Htc 10. Mine's on the way so hopefully I don't get burnt for being optimistic and forgiving of Htc.

 

[WelshBloke]

So far they seem to have gotten rid of the crazies responsible for all that when they made the Htc 10. Mine's on the way so hopefully I don't get burnt for being optimistic and forgiving of Htc.

The 10 looks like a great phone. I've not heard many negatives about it at all.

 

[Artdeco]

An example of what Apple has to do to grow: Have Foxconn build a 10 billion dollar plant in India in order to sell phones in India without the massive markup from import taxes.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...o-set-up-plant-in-maha/videoshow/52194281.cms

 

[Artdeco]

As long as the thread is about Apple, thought I'd throw this in...

http://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/5/11/apple-rd-reveals-a-pivot-is-coming

 

[Artdeco]

So the answer to "How does Apple Pay the obligatory bribes to Chinese officials?" Answer seems to be to use a China based 3rd party.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianso...-billion-in-ubers-chinese-rival/#105185ba4872

 

[Commodus]

I'm curious about Apple's investment in Didi Chuxing. It could be to placate officials ("we'll let you run iTunes Movies/etc. if you pour money into our tech industry"), but I also see this as possible groundwork for Apple's car efforts.

Think about it. Apple now has a huge stake in one of the world's largest ridesharing companies, and the dominant one in China. What kind of cars do you think Didi will encourage drivers to own in 2020? Hint: not Teslas.

 

[StrangerGuy]

An example of what Apple has to do to grow: Have Foxconn build a 10 billion dollar plant in India in order to sell phones in India without the massive markup from import taxes.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...o-set-up-plant-in-maha/videoshow/52194281.cms

"Nah, it can't be our third world country has shitty policies, it's that evil pro-profit luxury electronic company making phones we poor people obviously want so much and can't afford, so we spin a appeal-to-humanity story to disguise the good old entitlement syndrome whenever we can."

So the answer to "How does Apple Pay the obligatory bribes to Chinese officials?" Answer seems to be to use a China based 3rd party.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianso...-billion-in-ubers-chinese-rival/#105185ba4872

Quick, bring in the pitchforks people, Apple surely are the only ones doing it!

 

[Artdeco]

Quick, bring in the pitchforks people, Apple surely are the only ones doing it!

I'm not slamming Apple, it's how China works. I was curious how Apple would deal with it.

 

[senseamp]

As long as the thread is about Apple, thought I'd throw this in...

http://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/5/11/apple-rd-reveals-a-pivot-is-coming

Money, even billions of dollars, can't buy a successful pivot. Just ask Intel about its pivot to mobile. I think Apple's probability of success in the self-driving electric car space are non-zero, but not as high as the market assumes either. It's not a situation where the car buyer is sitting around waiting for an Apple car. People are putting deposits on the Tesla model 3. If anything Tesla has occupied the niche that Apple will need to win back from a very devoted Tesla customer base. Not to mention other well established premium brands with their own electric and self driving efforts. It's not a field where the competition is asleep at the switch just waiting to be disrupted.

 

[Artdeco]

Money, even billions of dollars, can't buy a successful pivot. Just ask Intel about its pivot to mobile. I think Apple's probability of success in the self-driving electric car space are non-zero, but not as high as the market assumes either. It's not a situation where the car buyer is sitting around waiting for an Apple car. People are putting deposits on the Tesla model 3. If anything Tesla has occupied the niche that Apple will need to win back from a very devoted Tesla customer base. Not to mention other well established premium brands with their own electric and self driving efforts. It's not a field where the competition is asleep at the switch just waiting to be disrupted.

Yeah, an Apple car has me scratching my head, They're envisioning a very different future than I do. Of course, I kind of always anticipated a post apocalyptic future where I get to shoot zombies

I was assuming with the robotic and AI hires they were going to make robots, but I guess self driving electric cars make more sense. If they crack the Chinese market with automated ride sharing cars, it'll be a slick play, and honestly, with a government like China has, they're looking at a simpler market than the US with each state making its own rules, and a team of lawyers looking to sue Apple every time someone loses a fingernail slamming the car door on their hand, much less traffic deaths in autonomous cars.

 

[senseamp]

China will never let a foreign company compete fairly in their market. Even as a partner, eventually, they will take Apple's IP and phase it out.

 

[blankslate]

the next iphone will start at 32 gb. That's going to be enough for a lot of consumers. It's a disgrace they stayed with 16 gb as the base for this long but once it hits 32 gb this fall most people will stop pointing out how apple has been short changing customers who don't opt for the 64 gb option for almost 2 years.
they will never okay jailbreaking.

ftfy


______________________

 

[Commodus]

Money, even billions of dollars, can't buy a successful pivot. Just ask Intel about its pivot to mobile. I think Apple's probability of success in the self-driving electric car space are non-zero, but not as high as the market assumes either. It's not a situation where the car buyer is sitting around waiting for an Apple car. People are putting deposits on the Tesla model 3. If anything Tesla has occupied the niche that Apple will need to win back from a very devoted Tesla customer base. Not to mention other well established premium brands with their own electric and self driving efforts. It's not a field where the competition is asleep at the switch just waiting to be disrupted.

I'm not completely sure Tesla is taking Apple's market... not to the point where Apple can't do something about it, anyway.

Remember, the EV market is still very young. Most people are buying gas-powered cars and tend to put up with crappy infotainment systems rather than enjoy them. Tesla may not be a complacent incumbent like BlackBerry/Microsoft/Nokia/Palm, but it also doesn't have the market sewn up yet. My guess: both Apple and Tesla become heavyweights in EVs (Tesla is already, to a degree), and they don't have to worry about their bottom lines for a long while.

 

[senseamp]

I'm not completely sure Tesla is taking Apple's market... not to the point where Apple can't do something about it, anyway.

Remember, the EV market is still very young. Most people are buying gas-powered cars and tend to put up with crappy infotainment systems rather than enjoy them. Tesla may not be a complacent incumbent like BlackBerry/Microsoft/Nokia/Palm, but it also doesn't have the market sewn up yet. My guess: both Apple and Tesla become heavyweights in EVs (Tesla is already, to a degree), and they don't have to worry about their bottom lines for a long while.

Tesla is the company in auto space that many affluent young people stay in line to buy cars from, like they would stand in line for an iPhone back in the day. Tesla occupies the niche in the car space that Apple occupies in the phone space. Yes, the market is young, but so was media player market when iPod came out, so was smartphone market when iPhone came out, and it's proven a very durable position once captured. Apple has a shot, but people assume just because they decided to show up they will capture enough share to offset maturing of the phone market. And that is a long shot.