Are these pitchers HOFer?

[gistech1978]

Tom Glavine - N
David Cone - N
Pedro Martinez - N
Randy Johnson - Y
Roger Clemens - Definite Y
Greg Maddux - Y
Mike Mussina - N
Andy Pettite - N
Kevin Brown - N

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: Toasthead

Originally posted by: TheBDB
Johnson, Clemens, and Maddux for sure

Those were the three in my mind that were Yes's for sure. All the rest are no's except for Perdo who is a maybe.

You've gotta be joking about Pedro, he has been arguably the most dominant pitcher in baseball during his era.

Career stats Koufax to Petey:
Koufax first
-----------------------
W L G GS IP BB SO ERA ERA+
165 87 397 314 2324.3 817 2396 2.76 131

166 67 355 288 2079.0 554 2426 2.58 174

Accolades
-----------------------
Koufax: 6 Time All Star, 3 Cy Young, 1 MVP, 2 WS MVP, led league in ERA 5 times

Pedro: 6 Time All Star, 3 Cy Young, came in 2nd for MVP 1999(MVP for a pitcher is unheard of these days of the big bat), led league in ERA 5 times, 1st in ACT ERA (Minimum of 1000 IP, 3000 PA and 100 decisions for career and active leaderboards for rate statistics) among active pitchers.

After 2003, Pedro currently has 30 more K's in roughly 250 less IP than Koufax's career... that's DAM good.

 

[mpitts]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: mpitts
Glavine - Yes
Cone - No
Martinez - No
Johnson - Yes
Clemens - Yes
Maddux - Yes
Mussina - No
Pettite - No
Brown - No

Martinez is the only one who I said no to that has a realistic shot at getting in if he stays healthy and pitches for another 3-4 years.

Mussina will retire LONG before he gets close to 300 wins. Glavine, on the other hand, wanted a 4 year deal so he would have a realistic shot at 300.

I bolded your ridiculous statement. Compare Martinez's stats to Koufax (one of the greatest pitchers of all time, hands down), right now, right this instant. Then look at Martinez's ERA+ in his prime years, and think about how he did this in a hitter's era and against the DH. Thanks, come again.

Koufax won three World Series - Martinez has won zero.

Koufax had a 0.95 ERA in the four World Series that he pitched - Martinez hasn't exactly shined in the post season

Koufax won 25 games three times - Martinez has won 20 twice

Nevermind the fact that Koufax had his career shortened by an arm injury in the middle of the best years of his pitching life. Most people consider him to be the most dominant pitcher of any era.

Ron Guidry had comparable statistics to Sandy Koufax. Why isn't he in the Hall of Fame?

I'm not saying that Martinez will never make it. I am just saying that, if he retired today, he would NOT be in the hall of fame.

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: RabidMongoose
Tom Glavine - Borderline
David Cone - No
Pedro Martinez - Definitely, he was probably the most dominating pitcher of all time
Randy Johnson - Yes
Roger Clemens - Of course, one of the best ever
Greg Maddux - Of course
Mike Mussina - Depends, but right now I would say no.
Andy Pettite - Definitely not, no chance in hell, IMO.
Kevin Brown - Depends, but right now I would say no. If he gives 2-3 years like last season, then possibly.

Overall, I agree... Cone doesn't have enough wins, and his ERA is too high. Pedro already has better numbers than Koufax, and is still dominant. Randy Johnson is a shoe in. Rocket, Maddux, shoe in.

I don't think KB will stay healthy enough to get in and amass a large enough stat pool, too early to tell though. Same with Mussina, and also Moose is just too inconsistent. He will come out and throw a gem on some days, and then others just suck (this year comes to mind, he sucked in his first two starts against TB and then pitched well against Chicago). I also don't think 200 wins means sht, wins are not an accurate stat IMO.

Add another guy to the list: CURT SCHILLING! What do you think? yay or nay? He has a career ERA+ of 129, Koufax had 131 (in comparison Pedro kills all of them at 174). Schil is a 5 time All star, NL MVP, and WS MVP. He's never won a Cy Young (finished twice 2nd), nor lead his league in ERA. His career ERA of 3.33 is avg, although has a sparkling ERA+. I think if he wins another World Series with Boston, or a Cy Young this year, he's in hands down.

 

[uLHg182]

You guys should check out www.baseballreference.com and search for players and then on their pages, they have something called HOF (Hall of Fame) Standards Test and the HOF Monitor Test which have the probability of players making it. This site has an explanation of the tests: Explanation of Tests. I'll do it for these guys:
Test Explanations:
Hall of Fame Stats
These are metrics designed by Bill James to measure how likely a player is to get into the HOF, and not necessarily how good they were. Used with similarity scores, you can get a good idea of how good a chance a player has of getting into the Hall of Fame.

Black-Ink Test
All-Time and Active Leaders

Named so because league leading numbers are traditionally represented with Boldface type. The definition for the test that I'm using here was written up in Bill James's The Politics of Glory, p. 65-67. The essential point is to measure how often a player led the league in a variety of "important" stats. This method penalizes more recent players as they have 14-16 teams per league, while the older players had just 8. To get a point you must lead the league in that category.

Batting Statistics
Four Points for home runs, runs batted in or batting average
Three Points for runs scored, hits or slugging percentage
Two Points for doubles, walks or stolen bases
One Point for games, at bats or triples
Pitching Statistics
Four Points for wins, earned run average or strikeouts
Three Points for innings pitched, win-loss percentage or saves
Two Points for complete games, lowest walks per 9 innings or lowest hits per 9 innings
One Point for appearances, starts or shutouts
Note that Hall of Famers have a wide variety of values for the Black Ink Test, and the method is unforgiving of positional differences, but it is a neat little metric.

Gray-Ink Test
All-Time and Active Leaders

Essentially the same as the Black-Ink above, but it counts appearances in the top ten of the league. For each appearance the values are below. As with the Black Ink, this method penalizes more recent players as they have 14-16 teams per league, while the older players had just 8. To get a point you must be in the top 10 in the league in that category.

Batting Statistics
Four Points for home runs, runs batted in or batting average
Three Points for runs scored, hits or slugging percentage
Two Points for doubles, walks or stolen bases
One Point for games, at bats or triples
Pitching Statistics
Four Points for wins, earned run average or strikeouts
Three Points for innings pitched, win-loss percentage or saves
Two Points for complete games, lowest walks per 9 innings or lowest hits per 9 innings
One Point for appearances, starts or shutouts
Hall of Fame Career Standards Test
All-Time and Active Leaders

This test gives a score of 50 for an average Hall of Famer, with 100 as the max (note Babe Ruth is over 100 due to my simplistic addition of his pitching and batting values), though mine are lower due to some difference in positional adjustments that I'll explain below. It is used to measure the overall quality of a player's career as opposed to singular brilliance (peak value).

Also, I require a minimum of 20 points in this metric before the value is displayed for a player. Anything below that is meaningless.

This can be found in James's book on p. 174-176. All values are for career marks, and I've required 1000 at bats or 500 IP for the rate stats to kick in.

Batting Statistics
One point for each 150 hits above 1500, limit 10.
One point for each .005 of batting average above .275, limit 9
One point for batting over .300
One point for each 100 runs over 900, limit 8.
One point for scoring more than .500 runs per game.
One point for scoring more than .644 runs per game.
One point for each 100 rbi's over 800, limit 8.
One point for driving in more than .500 runs per game.
One point for driving in more than .600 runs per game.
One point for each .025 of slugging percentage above .300, limit 10
One point for each .010 of on-base percentage above .300, limit 10
One point for each 200 home runs.
One point if home runs are more than 10% of hits.
One point if home runs are more than 20% of hits.
One point for each 200 extra base hits over 300, limit 5.
One point for each 200 walks hits over 300, limit 5.
One point for each 100 stolen bases, limit 5.
James's version: Defensive value: 20 points for catcher, 16 - shortstop, 14 - second base, 13 - third base, 12 - center fielder, 6 - right fielder, 3 - left fielder, 1 - first baseman, 0 - designated hitter
My version: Defensive value: same as that computed for similarity scores. On a 0-20 range.
Pitching Statistics
One point for each 10 wins over 100, limit 25.
One point for each .013 of winning percentage above .500, limit 15.
One point for each 20 games over .500, limit 10.
One point for each .20 of ERA below 4.00, limit 10.
One point for each 200 strikeouts over 1000, limit 10.
One point for each .30 of BB/9IP below 4.00, limit 10.
One point for each .30 of H/9IP below 10.00, limit 10.
One point for each 1000 innings above 1000, limit 5.
One point for each 100 complete games above 200, limit 5. Changed from James's slightly
One point for each 30 shutouts, limit 5. Changed from James's slightly
Note that this system excludes relievers as there are no set standards for them.

Hall of Fame Monitor
All-Time and Active Leaders

This is another Jamesian creation. It attempts to assess how likely (not how deserving) an active player is to make the Hall of Fame. It's rough scale is 100 means a good possibility and 130 is a virtual cinch. It isn't hard and fast, but it does a pretty good job. Here are the batting rules.

Also, I require a minimum of 30 points in this metric before the value is displayed for a player.

For Batting Average, 2.5 points for each season over .300, 5.0 for over .350, 15 for over .400. Seasons are not double-counted. I require 100 games in a season to qualify for this bonus.
For hits, 5 points for each season of 200 or more hits.
3 points for each season of 100 RBI's and 3 points for each season of 100 runs.
10 points for 50 home runs, 4 points for 40 HR, and 2 points for 30 HR.
2 points for 45 doubles and 1 point for 35 doubles.
8 points for each MVP award and 3 for each AllStar Game, and 1 point for a Rookie of the Year award.
2 points for a gold glove at C, SS, or 2B, and 1 point for any other gold glove.
6 points if they were the regular SS or C on a WS team, 5 points for 2B or CF, 3 for 3B, 2 for LF or RF, and 1 for 1B. I don't have the OF distribution, so I give 3 points for OF.
5 points if they were the regular SS or C on a League Championship (but not WS) team, 3 points for 2B or CF, 1 for 3B. I don't have the OF distribution, so I give 1 points for OF.
2 points if they were the regular SS or C on a Division Championship team (but not WS or LCS), 1 points for 2B, CF, or 3B. I don't have the OF distribution, so I give 1 points for OF.
6 points for leading the league in BA, 4 for HR or RBI, 3 for runs scored, 2 for hits or SB, and 1 for doubles and triples.
50 points for 3,500 career hits, 40 for 3,000, 15 for 2,500, and 4 for 2,000.
30 points for 600 career home runs, 20 for 500, 10 for 400, and 3 for 300.
24 points for a lifetime BA over .330, 16 if over .315, and 8 if over .300.
For tough defensive positions, 60 for 1800 games as a catcher, 45 for 1,600 games, 30 for 1,400, and 15 for 1,200 games caught.
30 points for 2100 games at 2B or SS, or 15 for 1,800 games.
15 points for 2,000 games at 3B.
An additional 15 points in the player has more than 2,500 games played at 2B, SS, or 3B.
Award 15 points if the player's batting average is over .275 and they have 1,500 or more games as a 2B, SS or C.
Pitching Rules

15 points for each season of 30 or more wins, 10 for 25 wins, 8 for 23 wins, 6 for 20 wins, 4 for 18 wins, and 2 for 15 wins.
6 points for 300 strikeouts, 3 points for 250 SO, or 2 points for 200 or more strikeouts.
2 points for each season with 14 or more wins and a .700 winning percentage.
4 points for a sub-2.00 ERA, 1 point if under 3.00.
7 points for 40 or more saves, 4 points for 30 or more, and 1 point for 20 or more.
8 points for each MVP award, 5 for a Cy Young award, 3 for each AllStar Game, and 1 point for a Rookie of the Year award.
1 point for a gold glove.
1 point for each no-hitter. This is not currently included.
2 points for leading the league in ERA, 1 for leading in games, wins, innings, W-L%, SO, SV or SHO. Half point for leading in CG.
35 points for 300 or more wins, 25 for 275, 20 for 250, 15 for 225, 10 for 200, 8 for 174 and 5 for 150 wins.
8 points for a career W-L% over .625, 5 points for over .600, 3 points for over .575, and 1 point for over .525, min. 190 decisions.
10 points for a career ERA under 3.00, min 190 decisions.
20 points for 300 career saves and 10 points for 200 career saves.
30 points for 1000 career games, 20 for 850 games and 10 for 700 games.
20 points for more than 4,000 strikeouts, and 10 for 3,000 SO.
2 points for each WS start, 1 point for each relief appearance, and 2 for a win.
1 point for each league playoff win.


Tom Glavine:
Black Ink: Pitching - 29 (50) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 182 (50) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 43.0 (55) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 151.5 (39) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

David Cone:
Black Ink: Pitching - 19 (97) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 165 (73) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 39.0 (70) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 103.0 (86) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Pedro Martinez:
Black Ink: Pitching - 55 (22) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 168 (67) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 55.0 (26) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 168.5 (32) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Randy Johnson:
Black Ink: Pitching - 89 (9) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 218 (28) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 57.0 (20) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 284.0 (5) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses

Roger Clemens:
Black Ink: Pitching - 91 (8) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 287 (11) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 68.0 (8) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 293.0 (4) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses

Greg Maddux:
Black Ink: Pitching - 80 (11) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 297 (8) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 61.0 (13) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 227.5 (15) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Mike Mussina:
Black Ink: Pitching - 11 (194) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 210 (31) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 43.0 (55) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 97.0 (93) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Andy Pettite:
Black Ink: Pitching - 5 (396) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 77 (294) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 24.0 (195) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 84.0 (128) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Kevin Brown:
Black Ink: Pitching - 19 (97) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 160 (79) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 41.0 (64) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 92.0 (105) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

 

[SP33Demon]

Add Schilling to the list.

 

[PoPPeR]

I dont think Schilling is a HOF candidate at all. When I think of him, I think of a pretty good pitcher on the Phillies who got a lot of strikeouts, then went to the diamondbacks and had some great years with more strikeouts. Not HOF material to me.

As for the rest, I think Glavine will get in, but not on his first try. Maddux and Clemens are locks. Kevin Brown, Pettite, and Mussina are doubtful imo. And Pedro is in Glavine's situation.

 

[SP33Demon]

Tom Glavine:
Black Ink: Pitching - 29 (50) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 182 (50) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 43.0 (55) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 151.5 (39) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

David Cone:
Black Ink: Pitching - 19 (97) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 165 (73) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 39.0 (70) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 103.0 (86) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Pedro Martinez:
Black Ink: Pitching - 55 (22) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 168 (67) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 55.0 (26) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 168.5 (32) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Randy Johnson:
Black Ink: Pitching - 89 (9) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 218 (28) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 57.0 (20) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 284.0 (5) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses

Roger Clemens:
Black Ink: Pitching - 91 (8) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 287 (11) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 68.0 (8) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 293.0 (4) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses

Greg Maddux:
Black Ink: Pitching - 80 (11) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 297 (8) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 61.0 (13) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 227.5 (15) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Mike Mussina:
Black Ink: Pitching - 11 (194) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 210 (31) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 43.0 (55) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 97.0 (93) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Andy Pettite:
Black Ink: Pitching - 5 (396) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 77 (294) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 24.0 (195) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 84.0 (128) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Kevin Brown:
Black Ink: Pitching - 19 (97) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 160 (79) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 41.0 (64) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 92.0 (105) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.[/quote]
Not a big fan of Bill James, but the tests are interesting.... Pedro wins 3 of 4 tests, except for the Gray which is flawed anyway:

Pitching Statistics
Four Points for wins, earned run average or strikeouts
Three Points for innings pitched, win-loss percentage or saves
Two Points for complete games, lowest walks per 9 innings or lowest hits per 9 innings
One Point for appearances, starts or shutouts

Only players who have amassed many innings pitched will score well in this category, it doesn't take into account if a player pitches well enough to win the Cy Young in a half season or 3/4 season, the players who pitch more will always amass higher points for this test (hence it's flawed).

 

[NumbaJuan]

Rumor has it that Pedro will be going into the Boxing HOF! :Q

 

[cliftonite]

David Cone ---- No
Pedro Martinez ---- Definately
Randy Johnson---- Definately
Roger Clemens ---- Definately
Greg Maddux ---- Definately
Mike Mussina---- Only if he gets 300
Andy Pettite ---- Only if he gets 300
Kevin Brown ---- Probably not

 

[Coquito]

Everyone minus cone, brown & pettite.

 

[SP33Demon]

Koufax won three World Series - Martinez has won zero.

World Series are a function of your TEAM. Koufax had HOFer Drysdale for every World Series win, their team was a dynasty. Care naming the WS pitcher that complements Pedro? Didn't think so.

Koufax had a 0.95 ERA in the four World Series that he pitched - Martinez hasn't exactly shined in the post season

If you want to compare 57 innings to 52.3, then go ahead. Pedro had a 3.61 ERA, and fanned 48 in 52 innings. Koufax had a 0.95 ERA, and fanned 61 in 57 innings. I will give u this if it makes you feel better, but hardly much of a comparison.

Koufax won 25 games three times - Martinez has won 20 twice

Again, Koufax had Drysdale to pitch for him and pitched for a dynasty, Pedro does not have either so wins don't mean much (they are a function of your team, for instance, how many times did Pedro lead last year and then the bullpen blew it? FOUR times).

Nevermind the fact that Koufax had his career shortened by an arm injury in the middle of the best years of his pitching life. Most people consider him to be the most dominant pitcher of any era.

Yes, I agree, and Pedro absolutely destroys him in career ERA+ and ERA. He even destroys him in his peak years in ERA+, although Koufax did have a good peak for regular ERA.

Ron Guidry had comparable statistics to Sandy Koufax. Why isn't he in the Hall of Fame?

You're joking right? Look at career ERA for Guidry (3.29) vs Koufax (2.76). Or ERA+, Guidry (120) to Koufax (131). That's like saying Curt Schilling was better than Roger Clemens (3.33 vs 3.19, 129 vs 140). Why wouldn't Schilling be in the Hall right now, and Roger would be?

I'm not saying that Martinez will never make it. I am just saying that, if he retired today, he would NOT be in the hall of fame.

Yet you jest! Pedro destroys Koufax and Drysdale in career ERA and ERA+. Pedro career ERA+ is 174, Koufax 131, and Drysdale 121. Pedro career ERA is 2.58, Koufax 2.76, and Drysdale 2.95.

Let's even look at their peak years (best 3) in ERA and ERA+ (I also added the "shoe ins" from the list just for broader scope). I'm not going to bring wins into the equation b/c wins are not indicative of individual performance (things the pitcher can control) but more a function of team:

ERA - Pedro, Koufax, Drysdale, Rocket, Maddux, Johnson, & Schilling (just for kicks)
-----------------------------
P - 1.74, 1.90, 2.22
K - 1.73, 1.74, 2.04
D - 2.15, 2.18, 2.63
R - 1.93, 2.05, 2.48
M - 1.56, 1. 63, 2.18
J - 2.28, 2.32, 2.48
S - 2.35, 2.95, 2.97

ERA+
----------------------------
P - 285, 245, 221
K - 190, 187, 161
D - 154, 149, 140
R - 226, 211, 177
M - 273, 259, 191
J - 198, 190, 184
S - 159, 154, 149

Out of these groups for peak years, Pedro owns everyone in ERA+, and beats all but Koufax and Maddux in peak ERA years. Keep in mind that Pedro rocks Koufax and Maddux in career ERA (not to mention EVERYONE in this group). Pedro would most certainly be in the Hall today just on stats alone, considering his dominant ERA+/ERA numbers compared to the rest of the group. Scary to think that he will have another good 2-3 years!

Also funny how Schilling (and everyone else in this group) has better peak year ERA+ numbers than Drysdale (who's in the HOF) and a better career ERA+ as well (129 vs 121). Was Drysdale only voted in b/c he played with Koufax? If Drysdale is in, Pedro will without a doubt be in if he dropped dead today.

 

[RabidMongoose]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: mpitts
Glavine - Yes
Cone - No
Martinez - No
Johnson - Yes
Clemens - Yes
Maddux - Yes
Mussina - No
Pettite - No
Brown - No

Martinez is the only one who I said no to that has a realistic shot at getting in if he stays healthy and pitches for another 3-4 years.

Mussina will retire LONG before he gets close to 300 wins. Glavine, on the other hand, wanted a 4 year deal so he would have a realistic shot at 300.

I bolded your ridiculous statement. Compare Martinez's stats to Koufax (one of the greatest pitchers of all time, hands down), right now, right this instant. Then look at Martinez's ERA+ in his prime years, and think about how he did this in a hitter's era and against the DH. Thanks, come again.

Interesting that you're looking at ERA+ now..

Also interesting to see you talk about function as a team and saying that small sample sizes don't mean much

 

[PlatinumGold]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Tom Glavine:
Black Ink: Pitching - 29 (50) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 182 (50) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 43.0 (55) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 151.5 (39) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

David Cone:
Black Ink: Pitching - 19 (97) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 165 (73) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 39.0 (70) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 103.0 (86) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Pedro Martinez:
Black Ink: Pitching - 55 (22) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 168 (67) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 55.0 (26) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 168.5 (32) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Randy Johnson:
Black Ink: Pitching - 89 (9) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 218 (28) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 57.0 (20) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 284.0 (5) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses

Roger Clemens:
Black Ink: Pitching - 91 (8) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 287 (11) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 68.0 (8) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 293.0 (4) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses

Greg Maddux:
Black Ink: Pitching - 80 (11) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 297 (8) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 61.0 (13) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 227.5 (15) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Mike Mussina:
Black Ink: Pitching - 11 (194) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 210 (31) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 43.0 (55) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 97.0 (93) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Andy Pettite:
Black Ink: Pitching - 5 (396) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 77 (294) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 24.0 (195) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 84.0 (128) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Kevin Brown:
Black Ink: Pitching - 19 (97) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 160 (79) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 41.0 (64) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 92.0 (105) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Not a big fan of Bill James, but the tests are interesting.... Pedro wins 3 of 4 tests, except for the Gray which is flawed anyway:

Pitching Statistics
Four Points for wins, earned run average or strikeouts
Three Points for innings pitched, win-loss percentage or saves
Two Points for complete games, lowest walks per 9 innings or lowest hits per 9 innings
One Point for appearances, starts or shutouts

Only players who have amassed many innings pitched will score well in this category, it doesn't take into account if a player pitches well enough to win the Cy Young in a half season or 3/4 season, the players who pitch more will always amass higher points for this test (hence it's flawed).[/quote]

but that's pretty much what everyone has been saying.

well except a few.

Clemens, Maddux and Johnson are Shoe In's, Pedro and Glavine are pretty sure but not Absolute Shoe ins.

If Clemens Maddux or Johnson don't get in their first time, there would be an uproar and the HOF committee would lose all credibility. if Pedro and Glavine (given pedro retired today) didn't get in their first ballot, people might be surprised but it wouldn't be a big deal as most people would assume both of these guys would eventually get in.

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: RabidMongoose

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: mpitts
Glavine - Yes
Cone - No
Martinez - No
Johnson - Yes
Clemens - Yes
Maddux - Yes
Mussina - No
Pettite - No
Brown - No

Martinez is the only one who I said no to that has a realistic shot at getting in if he stays healthy and pitches for another 3-4 years.

Mussina will retire LONG before he gets close to 300 wins. Glavine, on the other hand, wanted a 4 year deal so he would have a realistic shot at 300.

I bolded your ridiculous statement. Compare Martinez's stats to Koufax (one of the greatest pitchers of all time, hands down), right now, right this instant. Then look at Martinez's ERA+ in his prime years, and think about how he did this in a hitter's era and against the DH. Thanks, come again.

Interesting that you're looking at ERA+ now..

Also interesting to see you talk about function as a team and saying that small sample sizes don't mean much

Well, ERA+ is an "official" stat now for MLB (recently). I don't agree with the park adjustment side of the equation, but on the other hand ERA+ is relevant b/c it's comparing the pitcher to the rest of the league.

Well, to tout that one player has more WS wins than another is ludicrous (I never based Bench/Piazza on WS winner/loser, I just said that WS MVP has to count for something), of course your team decides that... especially with pitching (another good pitcher on your rotation gives you time to rest and extra day if needed while that pitcher can sub in and the team doesn't miss a beat). I will add that Koufax's 2 WS MVP's are an incredible feat, and you could argue that he did peak better than Pedro b/c of his sparkling WS record, better ERA posted in his best 3 years, but gets killed in ERA+... But then again you could argue that Pedro pitches in a hitter's park, in a hitter's era. It's too close to tell for their 3 best years, but Pedro's stats are probably going to be ranked in the best ever if they already aren't. See
Pedro 2nd all time for highest ERA+ posted in a single season, 1st in career ERA+ of all time.

As far as postseason sample size is concerned, it's not very relevant b/c a) Pedro has never pitched in a WS and Koufax has never pitched in a "playoff", only WS due to format and smaller leagues back then b) 7 games for each/50 innnings is ridiculously small (20 games would have sufficed); this is the equivalent of maybe 35 AB's for a hitter (assuming 5AB/game). Piazza had 3X this amount so that was more relevant, and Bench/Piazza had both also played in a "WS" so to speak so the 22 AB's were more relevant and the 110 postseason AB's were enough to analyze IMO.

 

[RabidMongoose]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: RabidMongoose

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: mpitts
Glavine - Yes
Cone - No
Martinez - No
Johnson - Yes
Clemens - Yes
Maddux - Yes
Mussina - No
Pettite - No
Brown - No

Martinez is the only one who I said no to that has a realistic shot at getting in if he stays healthy and pitches for another 3-4 years.

Mussina will retire LONG before he gets close to 300 wins. Glavine, on the other hand, wanted a 4 year deal so he would have a realistic shot at 300.

I bolded your ridiculous statement. Compare Martinez's stats to Koufax (one of the greatest pitchers of all time, hands down), right now, right this instant. Then look at Martinez's ERA+ in his prime years, and think about how he did this in a hitter's era and against the DH. Thanks, come again.

Interesting that you're looking at ERA+ now..

Also interesting to see you talk about function as a team and saying that small sample sizes don't mean much

Well, ERA+ is an "official" stat now for MLB (recently). I don't agree with the park adjustment side of the equation, but on the other hand ERA+ is relevant b/c it's comparing the pitcher to the rest of the league.

Well, to tout that one player has more WS wins than another is ludicrous (I never based Bench/Piazza on WS winner/loser, I just said that WS MVP has to count for something), of course your team decides that... especially with pitching (another good pitcher on your rotation gives you time to rest and extra day if needed while that pitcher can sub in and the team doesn't miss a beat). I will add that Koufax's 2 WS MVP's are an incredible feat, and you could argue that he did peak better than Pedro b/c of his sparkling WS record, better ERA posted in his best 3 years, but gets killed in ERA+... But then again you could argue that Pedro pitches in a hitter's park, in a hitter's era. It's too close to tell for their 3 best years, but Pedro's stats are probably going to be ranked in the best ever if they already aren't. See
Pedro 2nd all time for highest ERA+ posted in a single season, 1st in career ERA+ of all time.

As far as postseason sample size is concerned, it's not very relevant b/c a) Pedro has never pitched in a WS and Koufax has never pitched in a "playoff", only WS due to format and smaller leagues back then b) 7 games for each/50 innnings is ridiculously small (20 games would have sufficed); this is the equivalent of maybe 35 AB's for a hitter (assuming 5AB/game). Piazza had 3X this amount so that was more relevant, and Bench/Piazza had both also played in a "WS" so to speak so the 22 AB's were more relevant and the 110 postseason AB's were enough to analyze IMO.

I just thought it was interesting since ERA+ is much more flawed than OPS+, IMO. Where'd you learn that ERA+ is now an official stat? It would be pretty good if it is

I mentioned 'function as a team' for Wins (which they are - and so are RBIs) and now you dismiss the playoff statistics when 50 IP is probably a little more significant than 110 at bats.

But I'm not arguing against your stance here. Another thing that you should remember about Koufax is that he also pitched in one of the best pitcher's parks of all time. Pedro probably won't be acknowledged by the common fan to have had a better career and peak than Koufax for a while.

 

[RabidMongoose]

As far as postseason sample size is concerned, it's not very relevant b/c a) Pedro has never pitched in a WS and Koufax has never pitched in a "playoff", only WS due to format and smaller leagues back then b) 7 games for each/50 innnings is ridiculously small (20 games would have sufficed); this is the equivalent of maybe 35 AB's for a hitter (assuming 5AB/game). Piazza had 3X this amount so that was more relevant, and Bench/Piazza had both also played in a "WS" so to speak so the 22 AB's were more relevant and the 110 postseason AB's were enough to analyze IMO.

50 innings is probably more significant than 110 at bats. 50 innings is about 25% of Pedro's regular season number of innings pitched. 110 at bats isn't even 25% of Piazza's regular season at bats.

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: RabidMongoose

As far as postseason sample size is concerned, it's not very relevant b/c a) Pedro has never pitched in a WS and Koufax has never pitched in a "playoff", only WS due to format and smaller leagues back then b) 7 games for each/50 innnings is ridiculously small (20 games would have sufficed); this is the equivalent of maybe 35 AB's for a hitter (assuming 5AB/game). Piazza had 3X this amount so that was more relevant, and Bench/Piazza had both also played in a "WS" so to speak so the 22 AB's were more relevant and the 110 postseason AB's were enough to analyze IMO.

50 innings is probably more significant than 110 at bats. 50 innings is about 25% of Pedro's regular season number of innings pitched. 110 at bats isn't even 25% of Piazza's regular season at bats.

Even IF I did grant 50 IP as a sample size, Pedro still a)pitched at hitter friendly Fenway Pahk, b)against the DH in a hitting era in the postseason, c)pitched against hitters in his own league who have faced him before. If Pedro had actually pitched in a World Series, and against an NL team then the comparison to Koufax's WS starts would be relevant.

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: RabidMongoose

As far as postseason sample size is concerned, it's not very relevant b/c a) Pedro has never pitched in a WS and Koufax has never pitched in a "playoff", only WS due to format and smaller leagues back then b) 7 games for each/50 innnings is ridiculously small (20 games would have sufficed); this is the equivalent of maybe 35 AB's for a hitter (assuming 5AB/game). Piazza had 3X this amount so that was more relevant, and Bench/Piazza had both also played in a "WS" so to speak so the 22 AB's were more relevant and the 110 postseason AB's were enough to analyze IMO.

50 innings is probably more significant than 110 at bats. 50 innings is about 25% of Pedro's regular season number of innings pitched. 110 at bats isn't even 25% of Piazza's regular season at bats.

Even IF I did grant 50 IP as a sample size, Pedro still a)pitched at hitter friendly Fenway Pahk, b)against the DH in a hitting era in the postseason, c)pitched against hitters in his own league who have faced him before. If Pedro had actually pitched in a World Series, and against an NL team then the comparison to Koufax's WS starts would be relevant.

LOL... if given the choice of either Koufax of "Petey" in their prime I'd take Koufax any day of the week. I've seen them both pitch and Koufax was definately more dominant!

 

[blakeatwork]

Tom Glavine - Shouldn't, but probably will
David Cone - Iffy
Pedro Martinez - Too soon in career to say yes. If he retires today, I would vote No
Randy Johnson - Will get in on the 'strength' of his 300-strikeout seasons - He was really only very good for 4 or 5 seasons
Roger Clemens - yes, shoo-in
Greg Maddux - yes, Major-League record 16 seasons of 15+ wins
Mike Mussina - No
Andy Pettite - No, good pitcher, but not HoF material
Kevin Brown - no... plagued by injuries,

 

[TheAudit]

Originally posted by: PlatinumGold
Tom Glavine
David Cone
Pedro Martinez
Randy Johnson
Roger Clemens
Greg Maddux
Mike Mussina
Andy Pettite
Kevin Brown


WOW, what a list.

Tom, Pedro, Randy, Roger and Greg, yes.

 

[RabidMongoose]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: RabidMongoose

As far as postseason sample size is concerned, it's not very relevant b/c a) Pedro has never pitched in a WS and Koufax has never pitched in a "playoff", only WS due to format and smaller leagues back then b) 7 games for each/50 innnings is ridiculously small (20 games would have sufficed); this is the equivalent of maybe 35 AB's for a hitter (assuming 5AB/game). Piazza had 3X this amount so that was more relevant, and Bench/Piazza had both also played in a "WS" so to speak so the 22 AB's were more relevant and the 110 postseason AB's were enough to analyze IMO.

50 innings is probably more significant than 110 at bats. 50 innings is about 25% of Pedro's regular season number of innings pitched. 110 at bats isn't even 25% of Piazza's regular season at bats.

Even IF I did grant 50 IP as a sample size, Pedro still a)pitched at hitter friendly Fenway Pahk, b)against the DH in a hitting era in the postseason, c)pitched against hitters in his own league who have faced him before. If Pedro had actually pitched in a World Series, and against an NL team then the comparison to Koufax's WS starts would be relevant.

Or we could say that Koufax faced the best of the best of competition in the WS and pitched better! I like how you are trying to justify your previous horrible comparison and trying to ignore this current horrible comparison. Maybe they were both just plain ridiculous. However, I guess some people have trouble applying the same set of rules to every player. Your excuse that 50 IP is equal to 35 at bats was ridiculous and you know it. Saying that Pedro pitches in a hitter's park is the same as a certain catcher hitting in a pitcher's park. Saying that you can't compare the two because of the WS and non-WS is funny because the same is of the previous comparison.

You're using some statistical analysis now to show that Pedro was better than Koufax, but only because it helps a Red Sox player out. I and anyone else could make a very easy 'common' fan case to say that Koufax was easily better - similar to the way that you argued previously. It would be stupid, but possible.

I think it's time that you claim your homer crown

BTW, where did you learn that ERA+ is an 'official' MLB statistic?

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Koufax won three World Series - Martinez has won zero.

World Series are a function of your TEAM. Koufax had HOFer Drysdale for every World Series win, their team was a dynasty. Care naming the WS pitcher that complements Pedro? Didn't think so.

Koufax had a 0.95 ERA in the four World Series that he pitched - Martinez hasn't exactly shined in the post season

If you want to compare 57 innings to 52.3, then go ahead. Pedro had a 3.61 ERA, and fanned 48 in 52 innings. Koufax had a 0.95 ERA, and fanned 61 in 57 innings. I will give u this if it makes you feel better, but hardly much of a comparison.

Koufax won 25 games three times - Martinez has won 20 twice

Again, Koufax had Drysdale to pitch for him and pitched for a dynasty, Pedro does not have either so wins don't mean much (they are a function of your team, for instance, how many times did Pedro lead last year and then the bullpen blew it? FOUR times).

Nevermind the fact that Koufax had his career shortened by an arm injury in the middle of the best years of his pitching life. Most people consider him to be the most dominant pitcher of any era.

Yes, I agree, and Pedro absolutely destroys him in career ERA+ and ERA. He even destroys him in his peak years in ERA+, although Koufax did have a good peak for regular ERA.

Ron Guidry had comparable statistics to Sandy Koufax. Why isn't he in the Hall of Fame?

You're joking right? Look at career ERA for Guidry (3.29) vs Koufax (2.76). Or ERA+, Guidry (120) to Koufax (131). That's like saying Curt Schilling was better than Roger Clemens (3.33 vs 3.19, 129 vs 140). Why wouldn't Schilling be in the Hall right now, and Roger would be?

I'm not saying that Martinez will never make it. I am just saying that, if he retired today, he would NOT be in the hall of fame.

Yet you jest! Pedro destroys Koufax and Drysdale in career ERA and ERA+. Pedro career ERA+ is 174, Koufax 131, and Drysdale 121. Pedro career ERA is 2.58, Koufax 2.76, and Drysdale 2.95.

Let's even look at their peak years (best 3) in ERA and ERA+ (I also added the "shoe ins" from the list just for broader scope). I'm not going to bring wins into the equation b/c wins are not indicative of individual performance (things the pitcher can control) but more a function of team:

ERA - Pedro, Koufax, Drysdale, Rocket, Maddux, Johnson, & Schilling (just for kicks)
-----------------------------
P - 1.74, 1.90, 2.22
K - 1.73, 1.74, 2.04
D - 2.15, 2.18, 2.63
R - 1.93, 2.05, 2.48
M - 1.56, 1. 63, 2.18
J - 2.28, 2.32, 2.48
S - 2.35, 2.95, 2.97

ERA+
----------------------------
P - 285, 245, 221
K - 190, 187, 161
D - 154, 149, 140
R - 226, 211, 177
M - 273, 259, 191
J - 198, 190, 184
S - 159, 154, 149

Out of these groups for peak years, Pedro owns everyone in ERA+, and beats all but Koufax and Maddux in peak ERA years. Keep in mind that Pedro rocks Koufax and Maddux in career ERA (not to mention EVERYONE in this group). Pedro would most certainly be in the Hall today just on stats alone, considering his dominant ERA+/ERA numbers compared to the rest of the group. Scary to think that he will have another good 2-3 years!

Also funny how Schilling (and everyone else in this group) has better peak year ERA+ numbers than Drysdale (who's in the HOF) and a better career ERA+ as well (129 vs 121). Was Drysdale only voted in b/c he played with Koufax? If Drysdale is in, Pedro will without a doubt be in if he dropped dead today.

Petey has stats but no heart. Drysdale had twice the heart and talent as the little headcase!

 

[RabidMongoose]

I think that I would have to say that Pedro isn't even one of the top 100 pitchers of all time.

1. He's a clubhouse cancer. He adds -10 wins to any club just by being on the roster. He whines and cries most of the time and doesn't care about the team.
2. He has no heart. Another -10 wins.
3. He can't pitch in the big games. He hasn't been exceptional in the postseason, therefore he is worse than any other pitcher that has been better in about 50 postseason innings.
4. He's so weak that he can't even pitch 200 innings. I think that anyone could do awesome in just 180-190 innings or whatever. But it takes a real pitcher to go 200-230 innings. Therefore Pedro isn't a real pitcher. I think this might be because he has no heart, too.
5. He doesn't win a lot of games. He's only won more than 20 games once in his entire career. That's pathetic.
6. He hasn't had a shutout in 3 years. That is again pathetic.
Bottom line is that Pedro is just a big baby.

 

[PlatinumGold]

Originally posted by: RabidMongoose
I think that I would have to say that Pedro isn't even one of the top 100 pitchers of all time.

1. He's a clubhouse cancer. He adds -10 wins to any club just by being on the roster. He whines and cries most of the time and doesn't care about the team.
2. He has no heart. Another -10 wins.
3. He can't pitch in the big games. He hasn't been exceptional in the postseason, therefore he is worse than any other pitcher that has been better in about 50 postseason innings.
4. He's so weak that he can't even pitch 200 innings. I think that anyone could do awesome in just 180-190 innings or whatever. But it takes a real pitcher to go 200-230 innings. Therefore Pedro isn't a real pitcher. I think this might be because he has no heart, too.
5. He doesn't win a lot of games. He's only won more than 20 games once in his entire career. That's pathetic.

Bottom line is that Pedro is just a big baby.

knowing what you do about their respective careers, if you could choose one of the two pitchers at the beginning of their careers, who would you pick Pedro or Pettite?