Question are video card prices headed down yet?

[Aapje]

Chip giant TSMC warns of 'excessive inventory' at clients

Company's profit soared over 76% to record in April-to-June quarter

asia.nikkei.com

Another sign that there is no longer a shortage for the smaller nodes. However, production capacity for bigger nodes still seems to be lacking.

 

[MoragaBlue]

Anyone telling gamers to buy overpriced new cards right now to help Nvidia beat the used GPU flood can pound sand. Shameful. Gamers got stomped on for the past two years but now the fun's over for Nvidia and the AIBs with their stupidly high crypto prices. The people who did the stomping have a few cards left that they can't sell, and now industry shills are commanding gamers to bail out Nvidia and the AIBs by bending over so they have a profitable place to shove those last remaining cards. Don't do it. CLENCH and HOLD!

LOL...In general, I'd agree with your assessment here.

For whatever reason, when prices increase there's a FOMO phenomenon triggering some to buy driving prices even higher which we've all seen first-hand the past couple of years. Now, I suspect we'll see the opposite happen (stagflation for GPUs) where falling prices will have the opposite effect causing the fear of paying too much causing many to delay purchases for long periods of time. Generally, deflation is much more onerous than inflation--the latter we can tolerate while the former may potentially decimate entire industries. This, in my view, is what's probably keeping Nvidia up at night.

We've seen some relatively good deals recently, in particular Newegg's promo for an RTX 3080 12GB for $729.99 & some games. Arguably, if one's building a system now, why not buy it, right? While it's anyone's guess, I think gpu pricing is going to get absolutely destroyed over the next couple quarters, unless there's a sudden reversal of NFT values. Given the amount of supply that will invariably flood the market, it's absolutely prudent to wait--assuming one can--until 3080s pricing will hover around $500'ish. Well, that's just my guess, anyway.

 

[jpiniero]

Maybe not mooning but Ethereum is back up to $1370. A 3080 12 GB would be fairly profitable. There's a case to be made if you had cheap electricity that buying it now and mining when not gaming would end up being a better deal versus waiting. Especially if you would be willing to gamble that the money printer gets turned back on at some point and Ethereum really does moon post-PoS.

 

[mastertech01]

They made so much money for the past 2 years, I dont see how they could be decimated by a temporary downturn.

 

[MoragaBlue]

Maybe not mooning but Ethereum is back up to $1370. A 3080 12 GB would be fairly profitable. There's a case to be made if you had cheap electricity that buying it now and mining when not gaming would end up being a better deal versus waiting. Especially if you would be willing to gamble that the money printer gets turned back on at some point and Ethereum really does moon post-PoS.

While only speaking for myself, I haven't foggiest--not even good guesses--on where the price of NFTs, Ethereum or otherwise, are headed or trending, aside from their apparent correlation with the supply of money created by central banks--it wouldn't surprise me if NFTs fully recover reaching new highs, or if they were to plummet back to where they started, at near zero value. I really have no clue.

You do make a salient point that if Ethereum were to recover, then the non-LHR 3080 12GB at $729.99 would be an excellent deal, if only because one would again be in position to sell it potentially higher in the future and/or recoup some value added via mining. For what its worth, as I'd imagine with many of us during the past couple of years, prices were at a level where I virtually had zero interest on building a new rig or buying any of these, in my estimation, grossly inflated prices.

Having said that, I picked up one of those 3080s promo from Newegg being fully aware that prices will likely fall further; but, given the normalization of prices across the board, from cpus to ddr5s, I just thought it wasn't a horrible time build a new rig, and started doing so.

 

[Aapje]

We may need to wait for proof of stake before a truly significant sell-off by miners occurs. Unfortunately, it's a bit unclear to me how fast the Bomb will push profitability down. I do think that quite a few people have a nearly religious belief in the profitability of mining and will keep their cards, perhaps even in a closet, until the facts can no longer be denied.

 

[mastertech01]

I can wait till the UHD750 blows up in my processor. It only plays Ghost Recon Gold Edition at full screen @ 1440 resolution on my LG. Thats all I need for now.

 

[MoragaBlue]

We may need to wait for proof of stake before a truly significant sell-off by miners occurs. Unfortunately, it's a bit unclear to me how fast the Bomb will push profitability down. I do think that quite a few people have a nearly religious belief in the profitability of mining and will keep their cards, perhaps even in a closet, until the facts can no longer be denied.

Not that what I'm about to say is earth shattering but we're at an impasse, with ETH anyway, if prices hover at around where they are now. From my understanding, the breakeven point for mining ETH is at or around $1,000 - $1,300 range? So, if prices fall below $1,000 for any significant period of time, I think we'll see a triggering of some GPU liquidations en masse. On the other hand, if prices were to recover, then we'll see a repeat of speculators buying up all the excess supply. I mean, why not? It's akin to finding, say, a game in a Vegas casino with a 100%+ payout where it makes perfect sense to 1) wager as much as possible, and 2) for as long as possible.

Currently and during the short term, I don't think anyone has any idea where NFTs are headed pricewise, either up or down. Over the longer term, I think most would probably be on the side where the value eventually goes to zero?

 

[Aapje]

Currently and during the short term, I don't think anyone has any idea where NFTs are headed pricewise, either up or down. Over the longer term, I think most would probably be on the side where the value eventually goes to zero?

For anything to have value in the long term, there needs to be a reason for people to own it, where that reason is not just speculation.

Modern art is often a pile of poo (sometimes even literally), but rich people can put it in their houses, to show off how bad their taste is, how much money they have, as a conversation piece, etc. I can see people wanting to have an exclusive digital art work. However, the legal situation surrounding NFTs is problematic. You tend to only own a link to a server somewhere, without any guarantees that the server will stay up, that the art is exclusive to you, that you may even display it somewhere, etc. This is very different from a physical painting.

Even if it turns out that some NFTs will have great value in the long term, it is simply not going to be a money printer for regular people, nor a way for a ton of mediocre artists to make a living. Art is always going to be a winner take all endeavor, where a few artists get all the moneys and most artists get to whine about their art having low value, but blaming it on everything but their art having low value. And if you want to earn money with trading it or investing in it, you have to either be extremely good at predicting what the rich people will want, or be in a small clique in that community.

The current crazy where truckers buy NFTs to get rich is just never going to be a thing.

 

[jpiniero]

Not that what I'm about to say is earth shattering but we're at an impasse, with ETH anyway, if prices hover at around where they are now. From my understanding, the breakeven point for mining ETH is at or around $1,000 - $1,300 range?

Depends on the GPU, how much power it draws and how much the electricity is. Breakeven for moderately cheap electricity places is probably closer to $800.

 

[maddie]

Depends on the GPU, how much power it draws and how much the electricity is. Breakeven for moderately cheap electricity places is probably closer to $800.

I don't understand the use of the word breakeven. Do you mean recoup card price in 1 yr? Is there some standard for "breakeven" or equipment depreciation?

 

[mastertech01]

I don't understand the use of the word breakeven. Do you mean recoup card price in 1 yr? Is there some standard for "breakeven" or equipment depreciation?

I think the IRS sets those standards

 

[Leeea]

Nvidia MSRP price cut!

Spoiler: link to hardware unboxed video discussing this

Just rtx3080 and above though.

Low end units not so much.

Cards are still to expensive though.

 

[mastertech01]

End of the model year clearance on way over priced models, just like the car industry (if they had cars to sell)

 

[cmdrdredd]

OMH. eVGA 3090 ti is selling at $1247 + tax in my local MC.
My case is a bit small for this badass so I have to take a rain check on it. LOL

That's what I paid a few months back for a 3080ti lol

 

[BoomerD]

Even though RETAIL prices are on the downturn, you'd never know it by looking at the used video card market. Maybe just miners trying to recoup some of their investment, or people trying to cash in before the market drops much more, but I've been browsing the local Facebook market place as well as the Seattle craigslist sites...prices for used card are very close to retail in many cases. I'm more than a little hesitant to buy one that was used in a mining rig...seems like they might have "been run hard and put away wet." (run hot, maybe not cooled properly, possibly damaged from the heat) Unfortunately, there's not really any way to know. (or is there?)

 

[Aapje]

Keep in mind that the listings that remain open tend to be the ones with bad prices. The ones that actually sell have lower prices than that.

And there is a good chance that 2nd hand prices will crash hard later. All those bad listings where people are hoping for a clueless buyer will feed the crash when sellers start realizing that prices will just go down more and more.

 

[RnR_au]

I'm more than a little hesitant to buy one that was used in a mining rig...seems like they might have "been run hard and put away wet." (run hot, maybe not cooled properly, possibly damaged from the heat) Unfortunately, there's not really any way to know. (or is there?)

From my understanding the only cards you should possible avoid are older GDDR6X models. Apparently the vram modules on the backside of the card can run hot.

Fans probably need to be replaced, so go the noctua fan mod if you can fit such a mod into your case.

I've been tracking the 6700XT second hand market for a while, and there has been a nice change in the sold prices over the last 2 months. But YMMV according to your region and the models you are tracking

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Been tracking the 6700XT on Ebay (gave up on Nvidia, their prices across the board are a joke New and Used) but holy crap basically every AMD card has 20+ bidders and ends up selling for ~$400 (with shipping) which is really not a great discount for a two year old card with a $479 MSRP.

I was really hoping for, at minimum, $350 with shipping, ideally somewhere closer to $250 with shipping, but with the number of bidders on these things I still don't see that happening for a while.

Also plenty of cards on my watchlist go for close to $350, only to be relisted a short while later (guess the seller expected more for the card, or the buyer didn't expect it to go for as much as it did).

While prices have come down from a year or even 6 months ago, I think the prices of old are looking like they're long gone.

 

[maddie]

Been tracking the 6700XT on Ebay (gave up on Nvidia, their prices across the board are a joke New and Used) but holy crap basically every AMD card has 20+ bidders and ends up selling for ~$400 (with shipping) which is really not a great discount for a two year old card with a $479 MSRP.

I was really hoping for, at minimum, $350 with shipping, ideally somewhere closer to $250 with shipping, but with the number of bidders on these things I still don't see that happening for a while.

Also plenty of cards on my watchlist go for close to $350, only to be relisted a short while later (guess the seller expected more for the card, or the buyer didn't expect it to go for as much as it did).

While prices have come down from a year or even 6 months ago, I think the prices of old are looking like they're long gone.

It depends on how long it takes for the psychology of the past 2 yrs to change. I suppose an indicator is how long did it take when prices started rising for the majority to accept to new reality. Many did not buy as expectations were that prices would fall back in a few months. The reverse is happening now. Buyers grabbing what they think are bargains. I think this will change.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Been tracking the 6700XT on Ebay (gave up on Nvidia, their prices across the board are a joke New and Used) but holy crap basically every AMD card has 20+ bidders and ends up selling for ~$400 (with shipping) which is really not a great discount for a two year old card with a $479 MSRP.

I was really hoping for, at minimum, $350 with shipping, ideally somewhere closer to $250 with shipping, but with the number of bidders on these things I still don't see that happening for a while.

Also plenty of cards on my watchlist go for close to $350, only to be relisted a short while later (guess the seller expected more for the card, or the buyer didn't expect it to go for as much as it did).

While prices have come down from a year or even 6 months ago, I think the prices of old are looking like they're long gone.

there’s still a lot of market anxiety this will rationalize over time.

 

[jpiniero]

Ethereum is almost to $1600. That should temper The Flood a bit for the time being.

 

[VirtualLarry]

Ethereum is almost to $1600. That should temper The Flood a bit for the time being.

Now, we just need a fundamental exploit for proof-of-stake, such they they indefinitely delay their plans again. Will card prices rise again?

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Yeah "The Flood" is looking like it will be more like "The Trickle" as small batches of mining cards are put on the market from small fish getting out of the pond thanks to rising energy prices and and the impending release of a new generation.

Just not seeing the wholesale collapse of the coin market, and I suspect POS will get pushed again to allow anyone that took a bath on this latest plunge to recoup some or all of their earnings.

 

[mastertech01]

Plenty of shill bidding going on at Ebay to keep prices up. Then there are the people coming to forums like this to tell you Ethereum is on the rebound again and you better jump on those high prices before its too late. Its all a game.