[Ars] AMD confirms high-end Polaris GPU will be released in 2016

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maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
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Isn't VR more AFR friendly now? Isn't that the way AMD plans on doing it?

VR it seems will have way more uses than gaming. Around here the focus is strictly on the gaming aspect. To me it seem like less gpu power would be needed to render a static image of say the Smithsonian or a persons heart, etc.
One has to take the statement in it's proper context. The minimum Occulus spec [290/970 class] price is named as the limiting factor.

We're focusing on one point at a time when we have to look, as much as possible, at the total picture. Blind men and the elephant effect.

Roy Taylor:
GC: You've mentioned the existence of quality content as one of the drivers of VR adoption. What are the other obstacles limiting widespread adoption of VR?
RT: They are two-fold. First of all, it's expensive for a lot of people. Now the people who really want it, just don't care. Quite frankly Oculus could have sold their headsets for a thousand dollars and I'm pretty convinced they still would have sold all of them. Because this first wave of adopters just aren't going to care. But when you get to the second wave of adopters, to people who are not technically savvy, then the price becomes tentative. And right now it's cost-prohibitive for a lot of people.
If you look at the minimum spec for either the Oculus or the HTC, and then you look at how many units of the minimum spec have been sold since their launch, so I'm talking about the Radeon 290 or GeForce GTX 970, according to Jon Peddie Research, the total install base of those parts or better is 7.5 million units. So we're going to have to make it possible to run good quality VR at a much lower price. And I'm confident with Polaris we're going to have a big impact to help that.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
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28nm Hawaii/Grenada XT
438mm2 - 6200 Million transistors

~14,15 Transistors/mm2

14nm FF has ~2.2 density = ~31,15 Transistor/mm2 (Assuming we keep the same design)

Polaris 11 = 232mm2

So Polaris 11 could have close to ~7200 Million transistors or one Billion transistors more than Hawaii/Grenada

For comparison, Fiji has 8900 Million Transistors

So even at the same clocks, Polaris 11 at 232mm2 could be faster than Hawaii/Grenada XT.

Gate utilization decreases with 14nm contra 28nm. So you may end up with 57% more working transistors and not 120% more.

Also remember parts that dont shrink so well. Like a memory controller.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
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Gate utilization decreases with 14nm contra 28nm. So you may end up with 57% more working transistors and not 120% more.

ehmm what ??

Also remember parts that dont shrink so well. Like a memory controller.

Yea you also have to remember that Hawaii/Grenada has 512bit Memory controller, Polaris 11 will be HBM2 most probable. That will leave more space for more Shaders, TMUs, ROPs, etc.
 

Tuna-Fish

Golden Member
Mar 4, 2011
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Yes they did that every time. But the same uarch is the same uarch.

But, GCN has well known weak points which you could fix to provide 20-30% more utilization while still remaining essentially the same uarch. The big one is VGPR count -- modern graphics and compute kernels need so many registers that they currently limit occupancy on GCN which is heavily register-starved. SRAM also shrinks better on 14nm than logic, so I definitely expect that they have upped the register counts.

They also said the performance/watt is 2x. A direct shrink will pretty much do that.

Increasing utilization doesn't really improve performance/watt, just performance/cu (so power/cu goes up as cus sit idle less often).
 

Tuna-Fish

Golden Member
Mar 4, 2011
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By these numbers, you should expect 2.23x the gates in a similarly sized chip. Parametric yield impact means the proportion of total gates lost because of faulty chips. Without the difference in gate utilization, you'd expect to get a 4.2x increase in gate count, as is proper for a double shrink.

In my mind, the big question about this 232mm^2 chip is HBM. We really just don't know how mature HBM and the interposer bonding process is right now. If it's mature enough to ship midrange products, then a pitcairn-with-hbm could be a very powerful chip. If it isn't, and given that GDDR5x isn't ready yet, the performance would be limited by the memory bus -- either by the chip being bandwidth-starved, or by the chip losing a very substantial portion of it's area to memory interfaces.

Things that don't shrink get pesky when you get a very good sized shrink.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
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That's easy, cost. Someone here said it - efficiency is a new "marketing" term in itself. "Go Green." "Buy Carbon Dollars" or whatever the hell they are called.

Say you have two equal products:
GPU R7 470 (equal performance to current R9 390) @ $150-200
GPU R9 480 (R9 390 + 10%) @ 300-350


the 470 uses 220W, the 480 uses 110W. You will have the savvy buyers (and those cutting edge) opting for 480, but those on a budget would probably get the 470.

And now both users can run VR if the 290 is the base-point they are aiming for.

[All numbers above are made up, just used for my point]



At this point, who knows. My aggressive stance that they need to make more money (now) stems from the fact that NV is going to keep doing their little tricks and AMD is going to need resources to fight back. They've had amazing tech for years, often selling it for pennies compared to NV. If this is their chance to make some money, grow their brand (no longer the budget brand!), I say do what you can and go for it.

However, I also have zero confidence in their marketing teams so who knows if it will even matter if they have any advantages when they can't get joe public to acknowledge it.
I'm coming to the conclusion that 14nm finfet might be equal cost or cheaper per transistor that 28nm. An older 28nm GPU of similar performance might be more expensive to fab than a 14nm one, even more so if architectural improvements are effected, meaning less transistors needed for 'X' performance. It would in effect, cost more to make the cheaper selling GPU. Not a situation you want.

My sense is that this round, AMD is going for the gold in all metrics.

Several low cost Polaris 10 GDDR5 GPUs targeting laptop, mainstream at the low end and VR ready at the high end.

Polaris 11 HBM2 GPUs at the performance and high end. The multi-die on interposer thread has the speculations for this. This leads to performance unattainable by Nvidia this round, with its attendant pricing advantage.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136


This is also here Intels structure win in cost.



Assuming it will use HBM2.

Ehm really ??? Gate utilization to counter the performance metrics ??


Not to mention that the cost of 14nm FF in the table above is for Q4 2016 (first 3-6 months of production) when 28nm is at its 3-4th year of production.
 

Kenmitch

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
8,505
2,249
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My sense is that this round, AMD is going for the gold in all metrics.

Checkmate? Well if you go on the theory AMD has been playing chess the last couple of years. I could see how it wouldn't be too hard to come to the conclusion based on the past couple of years.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,835
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Not to mention that the cost of 14nm FF in the table above is for Q4 2016 (first 3-6 months of production) when 28nm is at its 3-4th year of production.

I don't know when Samsung and TSMC started production on the A9 but it had to be like March or April of last year.
 

raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
4,093
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More I think of it:

It don't explicitly say that Polaris would be the means to make the "quality VR run at a much lower price" the second statement implies Polaris will help.

Perhaps by replacing the top tier price point and thus allowing AMD to sell older GPUs that can run "quality VR at a much lower price." Polaris would maintain their margins while last gen spreads VR goodness to the masses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p010lp5uLQA

see video at 16:00 - 18:25

http://wccftech.com/amd-polaris-architecture-vr-minimum-spec/#ixzz40ACbH2BW"

"AMD has just completed the shrink to 14 nanometer [with Polaris Architecture]. What this means is, and this is where it comes home to everyone in this room, is that we can produce GPUs that will run the minimum spec of VR at a lower cost, in larger volume, consuming less power and running faster. "

Roy Taylor's statement was that AMD are going to bring Polaris products which are faster than R9 290X and cheaper and more power efficient and in much higher volume (again indicating the price points they intend to hit). I don't know how such a simple statement can be so misinterpreted.
 
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ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
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http://wccftech.com/amd-polaris-architecture-vr-minimum-spec/#ixzz40ACbH2BW"

"AMD has just completed the shrink to 14 nanometer [with Polaris Architecture]. What this means is, and this is where it comes home to everyone in this room, is that we can produce GPUs that will run the minimum spec of VR at a lower cost, in larger volume, consuming less power and running faster. "

Roy Taylor's statement was that AMD are going to bring Polaris products which are faster than R9 290X and cheaper and more power efficient and in much higher volume (again indicating the price points they intend to hit). I don't know how such a simple statement can be so misinterpreted.

290 is the AMD VR ready. Not the 290X.

I would expect around 390X performance at 125-150W.
 
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raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
4,093
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290 is the AMD VR ready. Not the 290X.

I would expect around 390X performance at 125-150W.

See the video and context in which Roy makes the statement. He states R9 290X and GTX 970 as the minimum VR cards. So even though Oculus or HTC may say R9 290 is enough, Roy's statement was to give an idea that we will have faster than R9 290X, cheaper than $349, higher volume and lower power.

Anyway its 4-5 months away before we see Polaris. So we will know soon.
 

iiiankiii

Senior member
Apr 4, 2008
759
47
91
290 is the AMD VR ready. Not the 290X.

I would expect around 390X performance at 125-150W.

If AMD is only able to pull off 390x performance at 125w TDP, they're going to get smoked by Nvidia's 14nm considering the GTX 980 is already at around 165w TDP.

Honestly, if AMD is unable to deliver Fury performance @ 125W TDP, it's going to be a huge failure (pending pricing, of course).
 

USER8000

Golden Member
Jun 23, 2012
1,542
780
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If AMD is only able to pull off 390x performance at 125w TDP, they're going to get smoked by Nvidia's 14nm considering the GTX 980 is already at around 165w TDP.

Honestly, if AMD is unable to deliver Fury performance @ 125W TDP, it's going to be a huge failure (pending pricing, of course).

Most of Nvidia's range is close to 20% less efficient when it comes to performance/watt outside the GTX750TI and GTX980. Also,the headline efficiency figures are only for the reference models sampled for review. The non-reference ones are between 5% to 10% less efficient:

https://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/ASUS/GTX_980_Matrix/29.html
https://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/MSI/GTX_980_Gaming/26.html

Most if all of the GTX980 and GTX750TI cards tend to be non-reference.

Personally I think the Polaris 11 is going to closer to a GTX960 in power consumption while offering R9 290 to R9 390 level performance. So around 100W to 120W,while making it 65% to 85% faster:

https://tpucdn.com/reviews/Sapphire/R9_390_Nitro/images/perfrel_1920_1080.png
 
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raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
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If AMD is only able to pull off 390x performance at 125w TDP, they're going to get smoked by Nvidia's 14nm considering the GTX 980 is already at around 165w TDP.

Honestly, if AMD is unable to deliver Fury performance @ 125W TDP, it's going to be a huge failure (pending pricing, of course).

exactly. Nvidia will have a GP106 card faster than GTX 980 at 100w tdp. I think GP104 with 4096 cc and GDDR5X will be >2x faster than gtx 980 at 180w.
 
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ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
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If AMD is only able to pull off 390x performance at 125w TDP, they're going to get smoked by Nvidia's 14nm considering the GTX 980 is already at around 165w TDP.

Honestly, if AMD is unable to deliver Fury performance @ 125W TDP, it's going to be a huge failure (pending pricing, of course).

As everything else but the GPU itself take a bigger and bigger pie of the power budget, it may not be as bad. But R&D pays off.

So while NVidia may be able to create a 980TI performance GP104 at 125W and GTX980 at 100W. It will close the gap compared to today. A 25W delta is a lot better than a 100W delta. But its also needed in a world where performance/watt becomes ever more important.
 

USER8000

Golden Member
Jun 23, 2012
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exactly. Nvidia will have a card faster than GTX 980 at 100w tdp. I think GP104 with 4096 cc and GDDR5X will be >2x faster than gtx 980 at 180w.

It depends what happens with them focussing more on compute with Pascal. There is no such thing as a free lunch,and if Nvidia is using GDDR5X then its going to be ages until they release a card,since GDDR5X is only entering volume production this summer.

I suspect the reality is that both will GDDR5 and HBM2 for the highest end cards,and that both Polaris 10 and 11 will use GDDR5 but with some of the compression technology which was debuted this generation. After all the GTX980 does reasonably well with a 256 bit memory controller.
 
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maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
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exactly. Nvidia will have a GP106 card faster than GTX 980 at 100w tdp. I think GP104 with 4096 cc and GDDR5X will be >2x faster than gtx 980 at 180w.
When AMD R9 series is undervolted and downclocked a bit, we get massive efficiency gains. It seems we are forgetting how they clocked past the "sweet spot" to compete in absolute terms with Nvidia. New designs allowing dynamic voltages will extract efficiency lost in the present series. As a reminder Nano running with 980 for all those missing the forest.

http://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/msi-afterburner-undervolt-radeon-r9-fury,4425.html

AMD's GPU can be almost as efficient as Nvidia's when the company isn't flogging it. Fiji even edges out GM204 in a couple of games, namely The Witcher 3 and Thief. This result is more than acceptable.

 

raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
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When AMD R9 series is undervolted and downclocked a bit, we get massive efficiency gains. It seems we are forgetting how they clocked past the "sweet spot" to compete in absolute terms with Nvidia. New designs allowing dynamic voltages will extract efficiency lost in the present series. As a reminder Nano running with 980 for all those missing the forest.

Comparing Fiji with GM204 is stupid. Underclocking and undervolting a 50% larger GPU to match the power efficiency of a smaller GPU is nothing great. Fiji must be compared to GM200 at its released clocks. If AMD want to compete they need to match Nvidia in terms of perf/sp vs perf/cc, perf/watt, perf/transistor and perf/sq mm. Thats when they can really compete otherwise Nvidia will be always calling the shots.
 

JDG1980

Golden Member
Jul 18, 2013
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This is also here Intels structure win in cost.

Please stop posting this outdated chart. It's misleading. Note the date: 2013. As of mid-2014, there were already numerous refinements to the 20nm process and its 16nm FinFET variant, and Qualcomm was reporting that it was "more cost effective compared to 28nm HKMG processes". Again, that was a year and a half ago, so there's been another 18 months since then to refine the foundry processes, increase yields, and reduce costs. Yet you continue to post some consultant's estimate - an educated guess at best - from way back in 2013.

And I see no evidence that Intel is substantially ahead at 14nm. They have yet to produce any mass-market chip that is even as large as TSMC's A9X. Broadwell-E may not have been officially delayed, but I don't believe for a moment that a mid-2016 release is what Intel originally wanted.

Assuming it will use HBM2.

AMD has already officially confirmed that some Polaris SKUs will be using HBM.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
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Comparing Fiji with GM204 is stupid. Underclocking and undervolting a 50% larger GPU to match the power efficiency of a smaller GPU is nothing great. Fiji must be compared to GM200 at its released clocks. If AMD want to compete they need to match Nvidia in terms of perf/sp vs perf/cc, perf/watt, perf/transistor and perf/sq mm. Thats when they can really compete otherwise Nvidia will be always calling the shots.
Totally irrelevant except to the 1% interested in such things.

The average consumer cares about, in no set order, performance, cost, noise, temperature, memory size and card size. To assume otherwise is to project one's own views on the wider world.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,787
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Please stop posting this outdated chart. It's misleading. Note the date: 2013. As of mid-2014, there were already numerous refinements to the 20nm process and its 16nm FinFET variant, and Qualcomm was reporting that it was "more cost effective compared to 28nm HKMG processes". Again, that was a year and a half ago, so there's been another 18 months since then to refine the foundry processes, increase yields, and reduce costs. Yet you continue to post some consultant's estimate - an educated guess at best - from way back in 2013.

And I see no evidence that Intel is substantially ahead at 14nm. They have yet to produce any mass-market chip that is even as large as TSMC's A9X. Broadwell-E may not have been officially delayed, but I don't believe for a moment that a mid-2016 release is what Intel originally wanted.



AMD has already officially confirmed that some Polaris SKUs will be using HBM.
This confirms what I posted earlier.

It will cost more to produce a GPU of any given performance on 28nm than on 14nm.

This should stop any further suggestions that AMD will reuse present designs. They will have to sell at a discount to the new gen because of power consumed and will also cost more to produce. No one is that incompetent.

Folks, the 2 GPU belief needs to be revisited.
 

raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
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This confirms what I posted earlier.

It will cost more to produce a GPU of any given performance on 28nm than on 14nm.

This should stop any further suggestions that AMD will reuse present designs. They will have to sell at a discount to the new gen because of power consumed and will also cost more to produce. No one is that incompetent.

Folks, the 2 GPU belief needs to be revisited.

http://venturebeat.com/2016/01/15/a...-to-full-graphics-immersion-with-16k-screens/

" Yes. We have two versions of these FinFET GPUs. Both are extremely power efficient. This is Polaris 10 and that’s Polaris 11. In terms of what we’ve done at the high level, it’s our most revolutionary jump in performance so far. "

yeah. Raja's statement on Polaris 10 and Polaris 11 being two versions of FINFET GPUs makes a lot of sense if Polaris 10 is GDDR5 based manufactured at GF 14LPP and Polaris 11 is HBM2 based and manufactured at TSMC 16FF+. Anyway we will know by Q3 how many new GPUs AMD has for 2016.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
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2 Polaris GPUs, plus one Vega GPU with HBM.

It is simple as it can be, guys .

Baffin, Ellesmere, Greenland.
 
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