[Ars] AMD confirms high-end Polaris GPU will be released in 2016

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raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
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One possibility is that it could have a memory controller designed to work with either GDDR5 or GDDR5X. Parts that are low-end, or ultra-low-power would be designed to use standard GDDR5 at lower core clocks, while the 75W desktop card would use GDDR5X and higher core and memory clocks to allow the chip to stretch its legs.

We've seen dual memory controllers in the past, especially on small chips; Cape Verde works with both DDR3 and GDDR5, for instance. And GDDR5X is supposed to be a relatively simple addition to the GDDR5 standard, this shouldn't cost much extra die space.

Even 1st generation GDDR5X is supposed to have 12 Gbps data rates (eventual target is 16 Gbps, and Micron claims to have hit 13 already). A 128-bit bus with 12 Gbps GDDR5X would provide 192 GB/sec of memory bandwidth, which is more than the current Tonga cards have on tap.

Micron says mass production of GDDR5X starts this summer. If Apple needs Polaris 10 sooner for the MacBook Pro refresh, standard GDDR5 would still let the chip offer unparalleled performance per watt, and slower core clock rates would make a memory bandwidth bottleneck less of an issue.

GDDR5X is not going to be used on low end GPUs where cost is a major factor. The production volumes of GDDR5X will be low this year as its a brand new technology which will start to ramp in Q3 2016. I expect to see GDDR5X in high end GPUs like GP104 where the products are sold at high prices and the increase in production costs can be easily absorbed. AMD also mentioned that Polaris supports GDDR5 and HBM. There was no mention of GDDR5X.
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
You forget some new posters claimed that Fury X will be 40% faster then Titan X and they diapered after Fury X release. Lack of hype control from AMD.

Is that a freudian typo?

I'm not sure myself, but what you posted is absolutely a threadcrap. Stop it.
-- stahlhart
 
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looncraz

Senior member
Sep 12, 2011
722
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According to this:

http://www.pcr-online.biz/news/read...july-with-amd-polaris-gpus-expected-q3/037923

Pascal is only a couple months from launch, and Polaris will be Q3...

I seriously doubt this as Pascal GPUs only *just* started showing up on Zauba, which would suggest they are at least 6 months from launch, whereas Polaris should be able to launch in 3 or 4 months, going by both companies' historic timelines (from first Zauba listing to launch).

This is not the only claim I've seen that Pascal will beat Polaris to market, but the traditional leak sources strongly suggest otherwise...

Thoughts?
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,763
4,667
136
According to this:

http://www.pcr-online.biz/news/read...july-with-amd-polaris-gpus-expected-q3/037923

Pascal is only a couple months from launch, and Polaris will be Q3...

I seriously doubt this as Pascal GPUs only *just* started showing up on Zauba, which would suggest they are at least 6 months from launch, whereas Polaris should be able to launch in 3 or 4 months, going by both companies' historic timelines (from first Zauba listing to launch).

This is not the only claim I've seen that Pascal will beat Polaris to market, but the traditional leak sources strongly suggest otherwise...

Thoughts?
http://semiaccurate.com/forums/showpost.php?p=255514&postcount=428

I think this post sums it up pretty well. It is quite funny to see first "news" on Guru3D, and later this from your post. Pretty hilarious, if you would ask me.
 

myocardia

Diamond Member
Jun 21, 2003
9,291
30
91
There are options between 128 bit and 256 bit for the memory bus. A bit better memory compression with a 192 bit bus allowing 3GB & 6 GB for the slowest new cards.

I honestly can't imagine any other scenario that makes even half as much sense as this one.
 

JDG1980

Golden Member
Jul 18, 2013
1,663
570
136
According to this:

http://www.pcr-online.biz/news/read...july-with-amd-polaris-gpus-expected-q3/037923

Pascal is only a couple months from launch, and Polaris will be Q3...

I seriously doubt this as Pascal GPUs only *just* started showing up on Zauba, which would suggest they are at least 6 months from launch, whereas Polaris should be able to launch in 3 or 4 months, going by both companies' historic timelines (from first Zauba listing to launch).

This is not the only claim I've seen that Pascal will beat Polaris to market, but the traditional leak sources strongly suggest otherwise...

Thoughts?

Yeah, not buying it. AMD has demonstrated working silicon, Nvidia hasn't. AMD has historically beaten Nvidia to new nodes, and they have to know that time to market is going to be a huge factor if they want to win back desperately needed market share.

It's possible that Nvidia will ship a handful of Tesla cards around early Q2 (April) or so, which could theoretically beat AMD's first release - but these have nothing to do with consumers. Unless you're Oak Ridge, you won't be getting one. GP104 will probably be the first consumer release, and that isn't likely to come until October or so.

AMD will almost certainly be pursuing a bottom-up launch strategy, as it's the safest bet with a new process node. This means we should expect to see Polaris 10 first. AMD has specifically said they are targeting a mid-year release. My guess at this point is May-June. Why? Last year, the 15-inch MacBook Pro was released in May. Rumors for this year indicate the refresh might be coming in June, at WWDC. And I firmly believe that the 15-inch rMBP will use Polaris 10 as its dGPU option. They used freaking Cape Verde, an outdated 2012 chip, last year, so Apple is clearly committed to AMD dGPUs. And Polaris 10 will allow them to offer class-leading performance. Working demos of Polaris 10 were held for the tech press back in December, so a 6-month gap between that and the first public release of a product seems completely plausible.
 

JDG1980

Golden Member
Jul 18, 2013
1,663
570
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GDDR5X is not going to be used on low end GPUs where cost is a major factor. The production volumes of GDDR5X will be low this year as its a brand new technology which will start to ramp in Q3 2016. I expect to see GDDR5X in high end GPUs like GP104 where the products are sold at high prices and the increase in production costs can be easily absorbed. AMD also mentioned that Polaris supports GDDR5 and HBM. There was no mention of GDDR5X.

You've got to look at the total bill of materials. If GDDR5X allows halving the bus width compared to GDDR5, it might be worth it even if the chips cost 50% more (I'm just throwing that number out there randomly, I have no idea what the real figures are). A wider memory bus means more power consumption, more PCB traces, more die space, and more physical chips. All that costs money. A few extra bucks on the RAM ICs themselves could easily be offset by this.
 

raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
4,093
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You've got to look at the total bill of materials. If GDDR5X allows halving the bus width compared to GDDR5, it might be worth it even if the chips cost 50% more (I'm just throwing that number out there randomly, I have no idea what the real figures are). A wider memory bus means more power consumption, more PCB traces, more die space, and more physical chips. All that costs money. A few extra bucks on the RAM ICs themselves could easily be offset by this.

The key here is new memory technologies take time to ramp production volume and get yields to a point where it make sense at lower price points. GDDR5 was launched in June 2008 with HD 4870. After 15 months we saw the next product with GDDR5 (HD 5870). I expect something similar with GP104 launching in Q4 2016. Maybe we will see GDDR5X at lower price points (USD 200 - USD 300) in late 2017 or early 2018.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,787
4,771
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The key here is new memory technologies take time to ramp production volume and get yields to a point where it make sense at lower price points. GDDR5 was launched in June 2008 with HD 4870. After 15 months we saw the next product with GDDR5 (HD 5870). I expect something similar with GP104 launching in Q4 2016. Maybe we will see GDDR5X at lower price points (USD 200 - USD 300) in late 2017 or early 2018.
This is a bad comparison. GDDR5X is an extension of GDDR5, not a totally new memory technology and thus should be applied much faster than traditional transitions indicate.
 

raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
4,093
1,475
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This is a bad comparison. GDDR5X is an extension of GDDR5, not a totally new memory technology and thus should be applied much faster than traditional transitions indicate.

GDDR5X might be an extension of GDDR5. But that does not mean GDDR5X will be able to replace all GDDR5 cards from the price points of USD 100 - 1000. No new technology ramps like that. You will see GDDR5X launch at the high end and then gradually move down the stack in a year or so time. By your logic we should see all Pascal and Polaris cards use GDDR5X. But thats not going to happen.
 

SPBHM

Diamond Member
Sep 12, 2012
5,058
410
126
The key here is new memory technologies take time to ramp production volume and get yields to a point where it make sense at lower price points. GDDR5 was launched in June 2008 with HD 4870. After 15 months we saw the next product with GDDR5 (HD 5870). I expect something similar with GP104 launching in Q4 2016. Maybe we will see GDDR5X at lower price points (USD 200 - USD 300) in late 2017 or early 2018.

4870 was $299 at launch, later they also released the HD 4770 using GDDR5 for much cheaper,
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,787
4,771
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GDDR5X might be an extension of GDDR5. But that does not mean GDDR5X will be able to replace all GDDR5 cards from the price points of USD 100 - 1000. No new technology ramps like that. You will see GDDR5X launch at the high end and then gradually move down the stack in a year or so time. By your logic we should see all Pascal and Polaris cards use GDDR5X. But thats not going to happen.
Is that the only two options you can see. 1 1/2 - 2 yrs as you proposed or all at once.

My argument was that it will happen faster than you think. Faster not instantly.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,763
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Shintai, on that screenshot I do not see anywhere GDDR5 mention on Baffin XT. So why count it as GDDR5 chip?

Weston X3
Banks S3.
Baffin G5.

Where is GDDR5 coming from?
 
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MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
3,586
1,746
136
2GB. Ugh. Those are probably very entry level cards.

Sadly it's likely Oland or Cape Verde. 4500Gbps is only 1125MHz. The only GCN cards that AMD has ever put out with GDDR5 clocked that slow are Cape Verde and Oland.

Shitai, on that screenshot I do not see anywhere GDDR5 mention on Baffin XT. So why count it as GDDR5 chip?

Weston X3
Banks S3.
Baffin G5.

Where is GDDR5 coming from?


The speculation was G5 is a shortening of GDDR5.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
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Shitai, on that screenshot I do not see anywhere GDDR5 mention on Baffin XT. So why count it as GDDR5 chip?

Weston X3
Banks S3.
Baffin G5.

Where is GDDR5 coming from?

Its from the article. And you should correct your typo.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,763
4,667
136
Its from the article. And you should correct your typo.

Whoops! Sorry

Anyway. So I have to ask the guy, who wrote the article. Where did he got G5 as being GDDR5.

It is the same number and letter that is with other two GPUs. It does not specify that it is GDDR5. It can be, but there is absolutely no clue from that info that it is. Whats more: If it would be GDDR5 I suppose that it would be specified. Why? Because other "new" GPUs have it specified.
 

MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
3,586
1,746
136
Then what's X3 and S3?

It's just a description in a shipping manifest, so it could very well be the typo that they article author suggests. Who knows, other than the random guy in the shipping department trying to fill the forms out and get these shipped out to India before he gets stuck in traffic on the way home and misses the first period of the Leaf's game.

Though I'm sure Maddie will have his ears perk up and suggest that it's three small dies on an interposer.
 
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