[Austin Statesman] AMD sees a way forward (with new Zen design)

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NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,269
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Yep. Its quite clear someone else was put in front to take the blame. Their own confidence in Zen is very low to put it mildly.

delays and cancellations followed by lackbuster products.

If they needed a scapegoat, they could just point at Keller. I'm with IDC, this is damage control- "we're still fine without Keller, steady as she goes".
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,269
5,134
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What's the point of launching a product in 2016 if any meaningful revenues - if any revenue at all - doesn't come in 2016?

Same reason Intel launched a tiny volume of Core M in 2014, when real volume wouldn't arrive until 2015. Marketing, mindshare, and convincing investors that they are "on track".
 

MongGrel

Lifer
Dec 3, 2013
38,751
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Last edited:

TheELF

Diamond Member
Dec 22, 2012
3,990
744
126
What's the point of launching a product in 2016 if any meaningful revenues - if any revenue at all - doesn't come in 2016?
They could still sell a sizeable amount of the CPUs to OEMs in 2016 and make money in 2016, products would still start to appear in 2017,I am pretty sure he was talking about the final consumer seeing something in a store,not about when it's gonna be available for the industry.
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
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Same reason Intel launched a tiny volume of Core M in 2014, when real volume wouldn't arrive until 2015. Marketing, mindshare, and convincing investors that they are "on track".

Except that it didn't, investors kept asking about the 14nm schedule and it wasn't a non-issue for Intel only because 22nm was healthy enough to churn out competitive products in the first place. In fact, the ashamed tone every time 14nm was mentioned in thel Q&As said everything.

That said, that's not the point I wanted to bring. If Zen launches in Q117 or Q416 that's largely irrelevant, what's relevant is whether they will reach their performance targets and whether the subpar foundry will be able to produce it with healthy yields rates. Those two variables are far more critical than any quarterly variation on the launch date.
 

Dresdenboy

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2003
1,730
554
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citavia.blog.de
BTW, the guy next to Suzanne is Mike Clark, at AMD since 1993 and he was involved in many uarchs before. He should know his stuff.

If you want to know how influential some vision bearing processor architects can be, have a look at Andy Glew, who was at AMD for about 2 years, describing his design ideas from 2002 to 2004 and also defining some development processes and process optimizations.
Maybe you recognize his arch:


http://citavia.blog.de/2010/04/28/andy-glew-s-multi-star-architecture-and-the-alus-again-8474038/
A bit of his story at AMD while he's talking about his M* arch:
http://blog.andy.glew.ca/2009/12/story-behind-multistar.html
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
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Except that it didn't, investors kept asking about the 14nm schedule and it wasn't a non-issue for Intel only because 22nm was healthy enough to churn out competitive products in the first place. In fact, the ashamed tone every time 14nm was mentioned in thel Q&As said everything.

That said, that's not the point I wanted to bring. If Zen launches in Q117 or Q416 that's largely irrelevant, what's relevant is whether they will reach their performance targets and whether the subpar foundry will be able to produce it with healthy yields rates. Those two variables are far more critical than any quarterly variation on the launch date.

Very true.

Also relevant is what it will be competing against at the time it is available for purchase in stores by end-users. Will that be Kaby-lake timing?
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,360
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Kabylake is an APU with up to 4 cores 8 threads,
First ZEN SKUs (with up to 16 threads ??) will be competing against Socket 2011-V3 and Broadwell-E .
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,823
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They could still sell a sizeable amount of the CPUs to OEMs in 2016 and make money in 2016, products would still start to appear in 2017,I am pretty sure he was talking about the final consumer seeing something in a store,not about when it's gonna be available for the industry.

No OEM is going to touch Zen without an IGP.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,823
5,440
136
Due to heterogeneous computing or because gamers want to do hybrid GPU rendering pairing it with Pascal?

More power and cost savings than anything else. Plus miniaturization. See what Intel is doing with 5x5, that's going to be the on the bigger end for OEM desktops by the time of Zen's release.
 
Mar 10, 2006
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Kabylake is an APU with up to 4 cores 8 threads,
First ZEN SKUs (with up to 16 threads ??) will be competing against Socket 2011-V3 and Broadwell-E .

Maybe for, like, a quarter. 8C/16T Zen CPU will have to duke it out with Skylake-E.

Also, 8C/16T Zen CPU will only have 16 PCIe Gen. 3 lanes on the CPU while the Skylake-E parts will have up to 48 PCIe Gen. 3 lanes.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,785
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Because even if they launch on time in late 2016 they will start showing up in products starting in 2017.

They could still sell a sizeable amount of the CPUs to OEMs in 2016 and make money in 2016, products would still start to appear in 2017,I am pretty sure he was talking about the final consumer seeing something in a store,not about when it's gonna be available for the industry.

. . . well, maybe. At this point, I'd rather not parse the words of some journalist to death. That may just be their personal take on what AMD has officially stated elsewhere (wrt first full year's revenue being in 2017).

No OEM is going to touch Zen without an IGP.

Really? Even if it's competitive with some Xeon offerings without iGPU?
 

Dresdenboy

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2003
1,730
554
136
citavia.blog.de
More power and cost savings than anything else. Plus miniaturization. See what Intel is doing with 5x5, that's going to be the on the bigger end for OEM desktops by the time of Zen's release.
OK, but how do you think the mix of user demand will look like? AMD surely can't deliver something which fits the requirements above. But even for office users not the power efficiency during load is important but during idle. That's where they are today.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,360
136
Maybe for, like, a quarter. 8C/16T Zen CPU will have to duke it out with Skylake-E.

Also, 8C/16T Zen CPU will only have 16 PCIe Gen. 3 lanes on the CPU while the Skylake-E parts will have up to 48 PCIe Gen. 3 lanes.

You expecting Skylake-E to replace Broadwell-E within 12 months ??

Where did you see that ZEN will only have 16 PCIe Gen 3.0 lanes ??
 

redzo

Senior member
Nov 21, 2007
547
5
81
Kabylake is an APU with up to 4 cores 8 threads,
First ZEN SKUs (with up to 16 threads ??) will be competing against Socket 2011-V3 and Broadwell-E .
Are you sure that it is competing against Socket 2011-V3?
I was under the impression that it will feature just dual channel and borrow/sit on the same socket as APU's. It looks more like a competitor to intel's midrange 115X which is not a necessarily a bad thing.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,360
136
Are you sure that it is competing against Socket 2011-V3?
I was under the impression that it will feature just dual channel and borrow/sit on the same socket as APU's. It looks more like a competitor to intel's midrange 115X which is not a necessarily a bad thing.

Why everyone is compering the dual channel and not double the amount of cores vs Kabylake ???

Intels top end socket 1151 Kabylake will be a 4 Core 8 Threads with gen 9.0 iGPU.
ZEN will be up to 8 cores 16 threads no iGPU. Why and how does anyone believe it will compete against Kabylake is beyond me.
I dont expect it to even be in the same price category, ZEN should be more expensive than Socket 1151 Intel CPUs.
 

redzo

Senior member
Nov 21, 2007
547
5
81
From my perspective, "dual channel" says everything about how high they are aiming the total platform cost wise. 2011 is expensive, quad channel high TDP mainboards are expensive.
But what possible gain could AMD get from competing against a niche enthusiast platform product?

If ZEN turn's out highly efficient and fast, Intel will just unleash the kraken: drop more cores on a die, sell them for almost 0 profit and obliterate AMD without braking a sweat.
The other way around, 115x teritory, probably where most pc sales come from anyways,
AMD should challenge this market as I do not think that it stands a chance competing against the enthusiast platform no mater how good ZEN may turn out. Right there is: "drop more cores on a die, sell them CPUs for almost 0 profit and obliterate AMD".

Integrate as much as you can on chips, bring total cost of the mainboards down by deploying an efficient uarch that could challenge a cpu like the 6700, ...
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,360
136
From my perspective, "dual channel" says everything about how high they are aiming the total platform cost wise. 2011 is expensive, quad channel high TDP mainboards are expensive.
But what possible gain could AMD get from competing against a niche enthusiast platform product?

If ZEN turn's out highly efficient and fast, Intel will just unleash the kraken: drop more cores on a die, sell them for almost 0 profit and obliterate AMD without braking a sweat.
The other way around, 115x teritory, probably where most pc sales come from anyways,
AMD should challenge this market as I do not think that it stands a chance competing against the enthusiast platform no mater how good ZEN may turn out. Right there is: "drop more cores on a die, sell them CPUs for almost 0 profit and obliterate AMD".

Integrate as much as you can on chips, bring total cost of the mainboards down by deploying an efficient uarch that could challenge a cpu like the 6700, ...

First ZEN to be release will be for the High-End Desktop/Workstation and Servers. Those SKUs will compete against Intel Socket 2011-V3.

Later ZEN will also power the next AMD APUs that will compete against Intel Socket 1151 or whatever socket Intel will have at that time.
 
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