Barcelona Prediction Thread

[bryanW1995]

I think that amd will get up to 3.0 by Q3 08. that will be enough to push intel a little bit with penryn, but they should have no problem running 3.5 + to keep their performance advantage. It will probably be closer than most of us think, but intel will do whatever it takes to keep the crown. When nehalem comes out it will get ugly, however.

 

[Rusin]

Originally posted by: Idontcare

Originally posted by: Rusin
-5 to -10% clock for clock compared with Conroe
-10 to -15% clock for clock compared with Penryn

You anticipate K10 perform worse clock-for-clock than the currently fielded K8?

No, I think that K10 performs better than K8 when it comes to clock for clock. If you compare K8 and Core2, difference is huge: K8 needs like 25% bigger clock frequency to compete with Core2.

Now if u have Core2 1900MHz processor, you'll need K8 2400MHz to beat that. Now with K10 you'll need only like 2050MHz processor to beat that Core2.
---

I also believe that K10 will own the floor when it comes to systems like super computers with huge amount of processors. K8 can easily fight Core2 in this category and K10 will be much better. It has few nice additions making those multiple processor systems more efficient and K10 also has strong FPU.

 

[alexruiz]

Kind of surprising how soon people forget what has happened before... prior to Apr 2003, there were reports of the hammer being stuck at 800 MHz and having lower IPC than the K7 and the fanboys predicting the death of AMD.... you all saw what happened later.

The K8 had all the strengths of the K7, but it also had many of its shortcomings (poor performing L2 cache, poor integer performance, etc) Against the P7 core, it looked wonderful however, but its shortcoming were revealed with the introduction of the Pentium-m that gave the mobile hammer a great fight. The K8 didn't really evolve, the P-M core got tweaked a lot and morphed from competitive to leading (banias -> dothan -> yonah -> merom/conroe) The introduction of yonah was the prelude, as we saw the P-M surpassing the K8 in almost everything except media, and the speculation that if that got fixed it would be the fastest CPU existing... it got fixed, and many of you have the result of "that fix" powering your rigs.

Back into the subject, there is no way the K10 will not be have at least >30% higher IPC than a K8. Most of those shortcoming in the K8 (several carried over from the K7) are being taken care of. AMD is in a better situation than it was 4 years ago. Of the "CPU business", Jerry Sanders always focused more on the "CPU" part, while Hector made AMD really get into the "business" part..... AMD still has who is arguably the brightest mind in the processor world, Dirk Meyer. Hector preferred to give stability to the business and make money, get return of the investment instead of keep pushing faster and faster CPUs very often. They even bought ATI. AMD had 4 years to improve K8, and if many ignorant fanboys saw intel back on top, it is highly unlikely Hector Ruiz or Dirk Meyer didn't They knew intel would counter the K8 eventually, but they probably didn't expect the answer to be that good. Now it is their time to come back to the CPU part and show the work of those 4 years.


My prediction
K10 15% faster clock-for-clock than penryn in single theaded integer apps.
K10 20% faster clock-for-clock than penryn in single theaded floating point apps.
Add 5-20% to that amount in multithreaded apps, and loads with high amounts of data exchange will be higher. AMD still has a more advanced architecture (integrated memory controller and HT)
Barcelona will beat clovertown in <2U servers, and wipe the floor with it in >8u configurations. Phenom will beat penryn in the desktop. How much?

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: bryanW1995
(amd fanboy warning siren going crazy)

As is the Intel fanboy siren...it's always the way when a new architecture is speculated on.

 

[SubtleIntelFreak]

As is the Intel fanboy siren...in.

I saw a flashing Centrino Logo in the sky so ... am I needed?

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner

Originally posted by: Viditor
clock for clock, 25% faster than Conroe and 20% faster than Penryn...

BTW, we should look for the reviews that compare the 2 GHz Barcelona to the E5335 Xeon (1333 FSB, 2 GHz)...I do hope that Intel gets one to Anand for the review!

do you have inside information? Or are you still basing it on the spec releases? I remember I asked you about barcelona a year ago when Intel kicked AMD in the groin and you were rather confident about AMD's future. What have you learned since then if you dont mind sharing?

No DIRECT inside info, but info from engineers who I trust. Since the last time you asked about Barcelona, AMD has discovered and fixed some major design flaws with the memory controller and other internal problems (the 1.6 GHz chip that was shown at Computex was a very crippled chip indeed!)...hence the 6 month delay.
Keep in mind that these were design problems and not manufacturing problems, which in this case is a good thing for AMD (because it was a design problem, yields are excellent on the new stepping). The B2 stepping should be fully functional and should be slightly faster than Penryn, but the B3 stepping (due in Nov I have come to find out) will be MUCH better, especially for clockspeed. I am told that we should see shipping clocks up to 2.6 GHz by year's end on quad, and probably 3 GHz+ on dual core in Q1.

Some caveats...
1. I am getting this second-hand and I have NOT seen it myself yet, so keep that salt shaker handy!
2. While AMD's 45nm is still scheduled to release 6-8 months after Penryn, we haven't seen a tape-out yet...
3. Even though AMD is receiving an additional $7-800 Million aside from sales (plus whatever they get for the 90nm equipment they are selling from Fab30 as it goes through changeover to Fab38), we don't know the exact payment schedule on that money.

 

[bryanW1995]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: bryanW1995
(amd fanboy warning siren going crazy)

As is the Intel fanboy siren...it's always the way when a new architecture is speculated on.

true. I think that it's not necessary to sound the intel fanboy siren currently since they have all crawled out from under the rocks they've been hiding under for 4 years. I'm not a fanboy for either company, but I hope that intel has SOMEBODY competing with them in 18 mos or we'll all suffer.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: bryanW1995

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: bryanW1995
(amd fanboy warning siren going crazy)

As is the Intel fanboy siren...it's always the way when a new architecture is speculated on.

true. I think that it's not necessary to sound the intel fanboy siren currently since they have all crawled out from under the rocks they've been hiding under for 4 years. I'm not a fanboy for either company, but I hope that intel has SOMEBODY competing with them in 18 mos or we'll all suffer.

Remember those 3 years when AMD was not only better than Intel but they kept increasing the lead? It's amazing the number of people who were predicting Intel's demise at the time...
As I said then I say now...neither of these companies is going away for a very long time.

 

[manowar821]

Clock for clock? 10% faster than Conroe. Perhaps 15% in various tasks, such as specific games or programs. As low as 5%> faster in bad circumstances.

Just a guess...

 

[Amaroque]

I don't have a prediction.

If I were to speculate, I think Barcelona will be slower to start, but may end up being faster.

IPC may be higher, but AMD has a hard time with Mfg. Clock speeds will be much slower. Once AMD gets the speeds up, then Barc will probably be faster.

 

[Amaroque]

GAMING
GENERAL SYSTEM PERFORMANCE
ENCODING/MEDIA
ENCRYPTION
RENDERING

Based on this...

Gaming: Crap shoot
GSP: Crap shoot
Enc/Media: Intel
Encrypt: AMD
Rendering: Intel

 

[Regs]

GAMING - We will have to wait until Phenom for the desk top arrives. (NDA lifts). The Opteron was not targeted for the consumer.
GENERAL SYSTEM PERFORMANCE - Tied with Intel.
ENCODING/MEDIA - Intel's large "super-charged" Cache and SEE3-SEE4 optimizations will likely hold the lead in most benchmarks but not all.
ENCRYPTION - Intel.
RENDERING - Depends on how well ATi and AMD are forming together. If AMD and ATi can make both a core and a video component to work optimally with each other AMD will easily take the lead. If not, Intel will likely win most of the major benchmarks until AMD releases a 2.4-2.6 GHz Barc Opteron.

In all do honesty I think this release is going to be a mistake. They obviously want to release something new to sell to their customers (mostly large organizations and corporations) before they allocate and figure out their budgets early next year.

 

[superbooga]

Barcelona will further increase AMD's strengths, but chances are it won't gain significant ground in other areas.

Michael Dell has already mentioned that Barcelona will be 30% faster than Clovertown in fp, but Clovertown is 30% faster with int.

For most users, fp performance has become virtually irrelevant. Even for games it's not as important as integer performance. However, Barcelona will find a home in a lot of servers and research labs.

 

[gOJDO]

Phenom X4 vs Kentsfield, clock for clock:
GAMING -10%
GENERAL SYSTEM PERFORMANCE -5%
ENCODING/MEDIA -10%
ENCRYPTION +5%
RENDERING -5%

 

[bryanW1995]

Originally posted by: Amaroque
I don't have a prediction.

If I were to speculate, I think Barcelona will be slower to start, but may end up being faster.

IPC may be higher, but AMD has a hard time with Mfg. Clock speeds will be much slower. Once AMD gets the speeds up, then Barc will probably be faster.

do you mean slower clock/clock or slower overall? I don't think that even the most rabid amd fanboy thinks that barcelona at intro will beat a Q6850, much less a Q6950.

 

[Keysplayr]

Originally posted by: bryanW1995

Originally posted by: Amaroque
I don't have a prediction.

If I were to speculate, I think Barcelona will be slower to start, but may end up being faster.

IPC may be higher, but AMD has a hard time with Mfg. Clock speeds will be much slower. Once AMD gets the speeds up, then Barc will probably be faster.

do you mean slower clock/clock or slower overall? I don't think that even the most rabid amd fanboy thinks that barcelona at intro will beat a Q6850, much less a Q6950.

You've never met OCHungry!! hehe.

 

[Amaroque]

Originally posted by: bryanW1995

Originally posted by: Amaroque
I don't have a prediction.

If I were to speculate, I think Barcelona will be slower to start, but may end up being faster.

IPC may be higher, but AMD has a hard time with Mfg. Clock speeds will be much slower. Once AMD gets the speeds up, then Barc will probably be faster.

do you mean slower clock/clock or slower overall? I don't think that even the most rabid amd fanboy thinks that barcelona at intro will beat a Q6850, much less a Q6950.

Like I said, this is all pure speculation anyway...

Look at how crappy the K8 started out. Wasn't it something like 800 MHz? Everyone predicted the K8 being a complete flop because of Mfg problems, and low clock speeds. It's just too early to really tell.

Anything anyone says at this point is just a guestimate.

 

[Arkaign]

Originally posted by: Amaroque

Originally posted by: bryanW1995

Originally posted by: Amaroque
I don't have a prediction.

If I were to speculate, I think Barcelona will be slower to start, but may end up being faster.

IPC may be higher, but AMD has a hard time with Mfg. Clock speeds will be much slower. Once AMD gets the speeds up, then Barc will probably be faster.

do you mean slower clock/clock or slower overall? I don't think that even the most rabid amd fanboy thinks that barcelona at intro will beat a Q6850, much less a Q6950.

Like I said, this is all pure speculation anyway...

Look at how crappy the K8 started out. Wasn't it something like 800 MHz? Everyone predicted the K8 being a complete flop because of Mfg problems, and low clock speeds. It's just too early to really tell.

Anything anyone says at this point is just a guestimate.

There's some truth to that, but you have to remember :

(1)- The K8 premiered at very low clock speeds (1.4Ghz-1.6Ghz IIRC, Opteron x40, x42?) So they took their time ramping up.

(2)- The K8 premiered against comparably weak Netburst processors. Netburst continued to win in encoding and certain gaming benchies, but overall the K8 began to overrun the P4/PD as the clock speeds increased.

(3)- This time around, AMD is in a much tougher fight. We've already seen air-cooled .65nm 3.6Ghz C2D, 3.4Ghz C2Q, proving the capability for Intel to push higher-clocked procs out the door with ease should the need arise (let's hope so). With .45nm, what will be possible? 4ghz? 4.5ghz? Premiering @ ~2Ghz is a daunting problem, one that needs to be addressed very very very quickly. AMD is also holding the albatross known as ATI this time around, and just got done sucking down nearly 2 billion dollars in losses in less than a year.

For AMD to survive, they need a win, and they need it yesterday. Pushing out a 8800GTS beater for $200 would also gain them significant windfalls.

 

[Amaroque]

I remember gameing on a P200MMX @ 250, and a K6-2 350 @ 400. The PMMX whooped the K6's a$$.

The entire Pentium line at the time crushed any K5, K6, K6-2, K6-3, untill the Athlon came out.

AMD didn't die then, so I don't think they will now either. They may just become a "value" CPU maker, like in the old days. I don't wish to see this happen however. I remember paying $700 for a PII 350.

Remember, we probably wouldn't have Core2 if it weren't for AMD pushing Intel.

 

[myocardia]

Originally posted by: Amaroque
I remember gameing on a P200MMX @ 250, and a K6-2 350 @ 400. The PMMX whooped the K6's a$$.

The entire Pentium line at the time crushed any K5, K6, K6-2, K6-3, untill the Athlon came out.

I find this statement extremely hard to fathom, since I personally owned a P-MMX 233 @ 266, and replaced it with a K6-III 450 @ 550. The K6-III walked all over the P-MMX, even before the K6-III was overclocked. Now, it didn't hold a candle to the PII's and PIII's, especially in gaming, but if it hadn't been faster than a Pentium MMX, AMD would never have released it.

 

[Amaroque]

The game was Decent 2, and yes, the PMMX had faster visable framerates.

The PMMX was also almost twice as fast at Prime95. I was crunching it as a DC project at the time.

Edit: I had the same Riva cards in both systems.

 

[swtethan]

hmm

 

[imported_UncivilizedAMD]

Originally posted by: Amaroque
I remember gameing on a P200MMX @ 250, and a K6-2 350 @ 400. The PMMX whooped the K6's a$$.

The entire Pentium line at the time crushed any K5, K6, K6-2, K6-3, untill the Athlon came out.

AMD didn't die then, so I don't think they will now either. They may just become a "value" CPU maker, like in the old days. I don't wish to see this happen however. I remember paying $700 for a PII 350.

Remember, we probably wouldn't have Core2 if it weren't for AMD pushing Intel.

I highly doubt that the entire pentium line crushed any k5, k6, k6-2, k6-3. The amd k6 1, 2, 3 was competitive with Intel performance wise. There wasn't a big gap in performance as your post suggests. The AMD processors were priced way less too.

http://arstechnica.com/cpu/2q99/simd-shootout-8.html

http://www.tomshardware.com/19...4/06/intel/page10.html

http://www.anandtech.com/showdoc.aspx?i=262&p=1

 

[Regs]

Originally posted by: UncivilizedAMD

Originally posted by: Amaroque
I remember gameing on a P200MMX @ 250, and a K6-2 350 @ 400. The PMMX whooped the K6's a$$.

The entire Pentium line at the time crushed any K5, K6, K6-2, K6-3, untill the Athlon came out.

AMD didn't die then, so I don't think they will now either. They may just become a "value" CPU maker, like in the old days. I don't wish to see this happen however. I remember paying $700 for a PII 350.

Remember, we probably wouldn't have Core2 if it weren't for AMD pushing Intel.

I highly doubt that the entire pentium line crushed any k5, k6, k6-2, k6-3. The amd k6 1, 2, 3 was competitive with Intel performance wise. There wasn't a big gap in performance as your post suggests. The AMD processors were priced way less too.

http://arstechnica.com/cpu/2q99/simd-shootout-8.html

http://www.tomshardware.com/19...4/06/intel/page10.html

http://www.anandtech.com/showdoc.aspx?i=262&p=1

I would agree that K6 and K7 were decent performers. The K7 actually did one heck of a job against until but then again not many people knew AMD back then.

AMD can no longer play the value chip maker. They invested far too much capital now and they are in debt up to their knees.

 

[Arkaign]

Originally posted by: UncivilizedAMD

Originally posted by: Amaroque
I remember gameing on a P200MMX @ 250, and a K6-2 350 @ 400. The PMMX whooped the K6's a$$.

The entire Pentium line at the time crushed any K5, K6, K6-2, K6-3, untill the Athlon came out.

AMD didn't die then, so I don't think they will now either. They may just become a "value" CPU maker, like in the old days. I don't wish to see this happen however. I remember paying $700 for a PII 350.

Remember, we probably wouldn't have Core2 if it weren't for AMD pushing Intel.

I highly doubt that the entire pentium line crushed any k5, k6, k6-2, k6-3. The amd k6 1, 2, 3 was competitive with Intel performance wise. There wasn't a big gap in performance as your post suggests. The AMD processors were priced way less too.

http://arstechnica.com/cpu/2q99/simd-shootout-8.html

http://www.tomshardware.com/19...4/06/intel/page10.html

http://www.anandtech.com/showdoc.aspx?i=262&p=1

You're undeniably right on the K6-2 and 3 being better than PMMX overall. There are a couple of things to consider though :

(1)- That overclocked PMMX he had was probably running on an 83mhz FSB instead of 66, with synchronous memory access (nice).

(2)- Most of the early 100FSB Super7 boards were TERRIBLE VIA/ALI chipset garbage. I had an Epox w/K6-3 450Mhz, and it indeed couldn't outpace my P2-233MMX @ 297Mhz (Abit !) at anything other than Quake2 w/3dnow patch.

So .. it's possible that he had a crappy system, but not the K6's fault, more of the awful mobos that were out at the time. Of course, I went to a Celeron Mendocino 300a, and it crushed the K6-450 like it was a 286.

ah, the memories