I remember as a kid my mom always wanted to buy non-perishable goods in small, cheap (but more expensive per unit) volumes because it feels less expensive or something to her. Like one time at some "Value City" type store they had a big 24 pack of toilet paper or paper towels or something that was a really good deal and I bring it to check out and her eyes get all wide like "oh my god I can't believe I'm spending $20 just on toilet paper!" as though she would never spend that much on it buying the small packs. The value just completely escapes her.
Roundabouts.
Do such theaters still exist?
I hear that even the adult videodisc industry is hurting due to all the free porn available on the 'net. I can't imagine how theaters showing skin flicks could possibly still make a profit.
round abouts on state highways has got to be second on my list, they are bad enough in town ,but on a 50 mph highway a round-about at each exit is just dumb.
Kettle v1.0 Basic concept to YOU is not a basic concept to EVERYONE.
Everyone is different and EVERYONE is stupid in some way shape or form about things they have very little knowledge or experience of.
Pot:I think it's pretty ignorant and stupid for OP to not understand that.
Something I learned in the IT world.
Kettle v2.0 Just because someone doesn't know how to hook up a mouse, doesn't mean they are stupid. To me it's easy cause I've done it before and do it on regular basis. But some people never even touch a computer.
Heck I remember there was a guy at a company that simply refused to use a computer all together. He was rich, had islands and no, he didn't know how to hook up a mouse.
Was he stupid? Not at all, I'm pretty sure he was smarter than MOST people.
Hope you understand.
Roundabouts in towns are the greatest thing ever.
A vocal group of people complain to no end about the one near my apartment. They're the idiots that don't know how to use it - treating it like a 4-way stop every time they come up to it. They already forgot how badly congested the intersection always was before the roundabout was put in. It's simply never congested any more. It rarely backs up more than a few cars. Used to back-up for a half mile on every side.
We need to convert all 4-way stops into roundabouts. Seriously. Roundabouts kick ass.
Yeah, I guess I deserved that.Haha, right. After the plane treadmill, you're not getting me again. Everyone knows the roundabout is the greatest traffic invention since the car itself.
If an airplane was on a runway that was a conveyor belt going to opposite direction of which the plane was trying to take off, would the plane actually be able to lift off the ground and take off?
Simple example: I walked into the kitchen at my parents' house the other day and the oven door was open, even though the oven was off. My mom leaves the oven door open so as not to waste the residual heat after the baking is finished (during the winter).
Few years back I was talking to my dad about insurance and how the premiums go up every year even if you never make a claim. He said "Well, the insurance company knows that if you go for a while without an accident, you're due." I argued no, that's not the case, and pointed out that if you flip a quarter and it comes up tails 9 times, it's still 50/50 odds on the tenth flip. He told me 'no', heads is more likely on the 10th flip.
I'm always amused by these seemingly straightforward scientific and mathematic concepts that seem to elude people for whatever reason.
Another one that I've heard of but never personally run into is people that don't understand how graduated income tax rates work. i.e. they believe there are certain breakpoints where earning another dollar of income will result in reduced earnings because the taxes on their entire gross income will increase.
Anyone else have examples?
Basic fact: John McCain is pure, 100%, unadulterated, completely fuckin evil. I'm pretty sure when I die and go to hell he'll be standing there with a pitchfork.
Also, your dad is partially right.
if you flip a quarter and it comes up tails 9 times, it's still 50/50 odds on the tenth flip
'no', heads is more likely on the 10th flip.
While the odds of any given flip is 50/50 the odds that you flip heads successive times repeatedly becomes more and more remote.
The concept of how parents give their kids clothes they hate for Christmas instead of toys when they themselves will tell you for a fact that they hated getting clothes for Christmas. (talking baby boomer generation here, not best generation) Why the disconnect? Did they "forget"?
Someone please tell her that turning up the thermostat past the temp you want the house at doesn't heat up the house any faster.
Let's be real clear here.Also, your dad is partially right. While the odds of any given flip is 50/50 the odds that you flip heads successive times repeatedly becomes more and more remote.
is 100% correct
is 0% correct
however,
is also correct
Most people seem unable to grasp the fact that they are total morons.
But looking at it from an insurers perspective, the notion that you do not get into an accident for 10 years in a row, when your probability of having one is 50% each year, means that, while the probability of not having one in the 11th year is still 50/50, not having one for 11 years in a row becomes less likely, thus, they may adjust the premium up to account for mean reversion.
However, their model already accounts for the fact that your discrete probability is pooled with other discrete probabilities and they need to invest the premium to give a return that will not only take in enough to pay out, but also do so with a profit over time. Thus, they really shouldn't care because the risk is pooled. In all likelihood, the reason why the premium goes up is because they think you are a captured good and can, and will, charge more until you get fed up and move.
Also, your dad is partially right. While the odds of any given flip is 50/50 the odds that you flip heads successive times repeatedly becomes more and more remote.
I do believe my gas stove has an exhaust fan built into the stove which does remove heat to a certain extent.
no arguments from me there! It seems pretty silly to compare coin flips to accidents, cuz yeah I would say if you haven't had an accident in 10 years you're fucking due. To live an entire life without a car accident is tremendously unlikely.
Who's more "due", the guy who had 6 accidents in the last 10 years, or the guy who had none? Don't listen to idiots.
Bingo.Let's be real clear here.
The odds of heads on the coin I'm going to flip are 1/2.
The odds of all heads on the next 4 flips is 1/16
If I just flipped 3 heads in a row, the odds that I'm about to complete a series of 4 head-flips in a row is still only 1/2.
But looking at it from an insurers perspective, the notion that you do not get into an accident for 10 years in a row, when your probability of having one is 50% each year, means that, while the probability of not having one in the 11th year is still 50/50, not having one for 11 years in a row becomes less likely, thus, they may adjust the premium up to account for mean reversion.
However, their model already accounts for the fact that your discrete probability is pooled with other discrete probabilities and they need to invest the premium to give a return that will not only take in enough to pay out, but also do so with a profit over time. Thus, they really shouldn't care because the risk is pooled. In all likelihood, the reason why the premium goes up is because they think you are a captured good and can, and will, charge more until you get fed up and move.
The odds of any given flip is 50/50 and every possible sequence of 10 flips is equally unlikely.
In that case, I guess you better keep the oven door closed if it's cold outside.
First, applying a coin flip model to automotive insurance is invalid - coin flips are such that each one is independent of all others, whether a car accident occurs to a driver in a given year is highly dependent on the driver, and thus future years will have a strong dependence on past years.
Second, if we are talking about independent events like coin flips, then changing the wager (or insurance premium) based on the past history of coin flips is irrational. The coin will have the same probability of heads or tails on the current flip, as it did for anyone of the previous flips, hence the rational response is to hold the same wager. A concrete example:
You throw a fair coin (p(Heads) = p(Tails) = 1/2) 10 times - the first 9 flips turn up heads, the probability of that p(HHHHHHHH)=1/512. From there, p(HHHHHHHHHH) = 1/1024, but at the same time p(HHHHHHHHHT)=1/1024 - you still have an equally likely set of outcomes. Further any specific string of 10 heads and tails with have the same probability so p(HTHHHTTHHT) = 1/1024 as well.
As for the question of seeing 10 heads (or 10 tails) in a row and that being rare, it's because
1) Humans assign more interest in things that occur repeatedly, sensible given that we developed in an environment where most events have a dependence on the past.
2) This leads to humans not paying close attention to patterns that are not repetitive, so HTHHHTTHHT is not really any more interesting that THTTHHTHHT or HHTHHTHTT, so to our minds those outcomes can be lumped together in a set of boring things, while a small number of patterns such as all heads, all tails, every other heads, or 5 tails then 5 heads end up in a set of interesting things. Then it turns out that p(boring things) > p(interesting things), and likely even >>.
On the question of insurance: maybe.
Overall the expectation would be that drivers without accidents in past years are more likely not to suffer an accident in future years - this is the idea of good driver discounts.
However, as people age they slow down, and may tend to have more accidents. Also, a very long period of no incidents while driving may lead to complacency and lack of alertness.
Insurance companies base their premiums on empirically driven probability models that take a number of variables about the driver, the car, the area being driven, etc. into account to determine risk of claims. It's possible a driver with an 11 year long clean record moved into an older age bracket where risk of accidents is considered to be higher, or similar.