Bernanke Leaves Fed with Record Balance Sheet of 4.1 trillion

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Tango

Senior member
May 9, 2002
244
0
0

Yup. Really.

If you are really interested in the subject read:
Jordi Galì, Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Business Cycle

Ohh for fucks sake.

It's not his fault. The generalist media has absolutely no clue and has been construing a totally distorted narrative on these topics for years now. It does not help that it is a very technical topic.

Being an economist concentrating on monetary I can hardly remember a week in the last five years when I did not read at least an article that made me cringe.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,954
49,681
136
Productivity-driven deflation has been a feature of the economy for centuries. Electronics like TVs and computers are a prime example; has commerce in laptops ground to a halt because today's laptop that costs $1,000 will be replaced with faster model next year that only costs $900?

I'll leave to you to defend why the Fed should prop up bubble prices in financial assets rather than letting natural price deflation occur. Feel free to explain why housing should cost $400/square foot rather than $100 or even $1, and why it would the Fed should be taking extraordinary measures to keep it high.

You are confusing declining prices in a specific class of goods with deflation.
 

Texashiker

Lifer
Dec 18, 2010
18,811
197
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And you think this is a horrible thing?

Yes, the fed buying 40 billion a month of mortgage backed securities has kept the market artificially high.

The banks have no reason to make secure loans when you have a buyer for those loans waiting to give you money.

The past 4 years has been the second largest land grab in US history. The fed is printing money out of thin air to buy as much property as they can, with the banks acting as a broker for the deals.
 
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Tango

Senior member
May 9, 2002
244
0
0
The past 4 years has been the second largest land grab in US history. The fed is printing money out of thin air to buy as much property as they can, with the banks acting as a broker for the deals.

The FED has bought property?

P.s. Just curious: what could you print money out of, instead of thin air? I always found this expression fascinating...
 

Texashiker

Lifer
Dec 18, 2010
18,811
197
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The FED has bought property?

What do you think mortgage backed securities are?

P.s. Just curious: what could you print money out of, instead of thin air? I always found this expression fascinating...

You want to know why the fed was only buying $85 billion a month? That is all the printing presses could make in a month.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,954
49,681
136
What do you think mortgage backed securities are?

Mortgage backed securities are not property (at least in the sense that they are not real estate).

You want to know why the fed was only buying $85 billion a month? That is all the printing presses could make in a month.

Is this a joke? You realize we don't actually print money on a printing press when the fed creates it, right?
 

Tango

Senior member
May 9, 2002
244
0
0
Whoever owns the mortgage owns the property.

You might want to read about the securitization process, and what role is played by the special purpose vehicle.

The owners of the final MBSs only own right to the financial fluxes generated by the security.
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,329
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He also led them to record profits


More profitable than Apple and Exxon COMBINED. Impressive

Amusingly a lot of that record comes from owning treasuries. So.... The government pays the Fed and the Fed turns around and gives that "profit" back to the government. It is akin to you taking $5 out of your left pocket, putting it into your right pocket and then saying that you gained $5.

And the money the fed loaned the government in the first place came from who again?
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,329
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So your plan is for everything to get cheaper but for everyone to get paid the same. I hope you can see the obvious flaw in your plan.

The current system of everything getting more expensive while wages stay the same or decline does work a lot better, for a few, I guess....
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,954
49,681
136
The current system of everything getting more expensive while wages stay the same or decline does work a lot better, for a few, I guess....

Except that hasn't been the case. Incomes since the 1960s have risen quite slowly after adjusting for inflation, but have still generally increased. They have not stayed the same or declined. That might have been true over the last few years, but that's normal for recessions.

Regardless, even if that were true that would still be preferable to deflation.
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,329
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No, the FED was created and evolved with the single purpose of maintaining price stability. In time, as we acquired more refined understanding of monetary economics and a lot more computing power, a secondary mandate to keep the economy close to potential output was added, always conditional to the first one. Some central banks still basically only have the primary mandate.

Allowing deflation would not lead to anybody being able to buy anything better than today. It would lead only to horrendous economic destruction. If you want examples of what deflation looks like you have The Great Depression and the Japanese Lost Decades to have a look at.

Again, your questions are legitimate, but you have the wrong interlocutor int he Fed. They are not monetary policy questions, but economic policy questions.

Funny how they are the only ones that think that "price stability" equals "ever increasing prices". Their mandate is not "create a stable increase in prices" but that is what they have done. I can understand erring on the side of caution and thus ending up with very slight inflation but I see absolutely zero reason that they can't, and would posit that their charter actually demands by law, target inflation at 0. No inflation and no deflation, unchanging, the very definition of "stable".
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,329
126
Except that hasn't been the case. Incomes since the 1960s have risen quite slowly after adjusting for inflation, but have still generally increased. They have not stayed the same or declined. That might have been true over the last few years, but that's normal for recessions.

Regardless, even if that were true that would still be preferable to deflation.

Wages have not kept up with inflation. Wages have not kept up with the inflation in home prices either and despite the decline still haven't caught up.

As I said, it is preferable to a few.

And not once have I argued in favor of deflation, I have always and will continue to argue in favor of a zero sum policy. No inflation and no deflation, according to some the fed is incapable of preventing us from entering some sort of death spiral if they were to even attempt such a thing.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,954
49,681
136
Funny how they are the only ones that think that "price stability" equals "ever increasing prices". Their mandate is not "create a stable increase in prices" but that is what they have done. I can understand erring on the side of caution and thus ending up with very slight inflation but I see absolutely zero reason that they can't, and would posit that their charter actually demands by law, target inflation at 0. No inflation and no deflation, unchanging, the very definition of "stable".

You are kind of answering your own question. You don't target a rate of zero because deflation is SO bad that you don't even want to get close to it. Low, sustained inflation is almost universally understood by economists to be the most desirable outcome.
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,329
126
Whoever owns the mortgage owns the property.

Shrug, a fuckton of the MBS didn't even have the actual legal mortgages in them making them a fraudulent product. Funny how no one went to jail over that isn't it? Even better, I wonder how many the Fed owns meet legal standards?
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,954
49,681
136
Wages have not kept up with inflation. Wages have not kept up with the inflation in home prices either and despite the decline still haven't caught up.

As I said, it is preferable to a few.

This just isn't accurate. Median incomes have been relatively stagnant when adjusting for inflation, but that's exactly it; they have kept up with inflation. The exception to that would be the last few years, but again as I said before that's what you get during a recession.

And not once have I argued in favor of deflation, I have always and will continue to argue in favor of a zero sum policy. No inflation and no deflation, according to some the fed is incapable of preventing us from entering some sort of death spiral if they were to even attempt such a thing.

As I said in my other reply this is just bad policy. We don't have pinpoint control over the inflation rate that would allow us to target it so exactly. Therefore, you give deflation a wide berth. No responsible central bank would do what you're saying.
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,329
126
You are kind of answering your own question. You don't target a rate of zero because deflation is SO bad that you don't even want to get close to it. Low, sustained inflation is almost universally understood by economists to be the most desirable outcome.

I am sorry but a few 10ths of a percent of deflation for a single quarter or even a year before things can be tweaked to take said deflation out of the system isn't nearly as bad as you seem to believe it is. We aren't talking about massive swings in either direction nor are we talking about something that can't be tracked nor are we talking about something that can't be tweaked as needed in order to stave off even absurdly minimal deflation. In this day and age the Fed could quite easily set a target inflation rate of 0 and give or take a few 10ths of a percent to either side hit that mark.

The reason they won't (because they can) is because of the .govs debt. Period, full stop, end of story. If you wish to argue for or against that policy please feel free but lets at lest be honest about the reasons they do things.

At the same time, inflation combined with absurdly low interest rates make things that used to be necessary for our economy, like actually saving money, a bad financial move. I'm not sure what kind of economy you wish us to have but one in which saving money is a bad financial decision isn't what I would call ideal.

So we now live in a society in which its better to borrow money and downright foolish to save any significant sum and the banking sector is taking an ever increasing chunk of the GDP pie (making a select few even wealthier and the rest poorer). I honestly wouldn't think that the left would be so supportive of such a thing but as I always say, different names but owned by the same group of elite assholes.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,954
49,681
136
I am sorry but a few 10ths of a percent of deflation for a single quarter or even a year before things can be tweaked to take said deflation out of the system isn't nearly as bad as you seem to believe it is. We aren't talking about massive swings in either direction nor are we talking about something that can't be tracked nor are we talking about something that can't be tweaked as needed in order to stave off even absurdly minimal deflation. In this day and age the Fed could quite easily set a target inflation rate of 0 and give or take a few 10ths of a percent to either side hit that mark.

Can you point me to what credible economic research you are basing this opinion on? I'm unaware of any credible source that believes central banks have such fine tuned control over inflation rates or thinks the fed has such an ability.

The reason they won't (because they can) is because of the .govs debt. Period, full stop, end of story. If you wish to argue for or against that policy please feel free but lets at lest be honest about the reasons they do things.

Sure, we can be honest about it. That's not why it is done. Period. Punkt. Full Stop. End of Story. This is not only not adopted by every industrialized country on earth regardless of debt levels, it is also recommended by organizations such as the World Bank and the IMF. Not only do banks lose their ability to respond to economic shocks with an inflation target of zero, but as previously mentioned there are extreme risks with hitting the zero lower bound. That is why central banks do this, and this is what the economics literature supports.

At the same time, inflation combined with absurdly low interest rates make things that used to be necessary for our economy, like actually saving money, a bad financial move. I'm not sure what kind of economy you wish us to have but one in which saving money is a bad financial decision isn't what I would call ideal.

So we now live in a society in which its better to borrow money and downright foolish to save any significant sum and the banking sector is taking an ever increasing chunk of the GDP pie (making a select few even wealthier and the rest poorer). I honestly wouldn't think that the left would be so supportive of such a thing but as I always say, different names but owned by the same group of elite assholes.

Saving money is not a bad financial idea.

I'm really not sure where you got these ideas but you seem to have gotten some really bad economics information somewhere.
 

Texashiker

Lifer
Dec 18, 2010
18,811
197
106
they have kept up with inflation.

That is not true.

In the past ten years home prices have doubled. Did you salary double in the past 10 years?

In the past 10 years the amount of food $100 will buy has almost halved. Has your salary doubled?
 

Tango

Senior member
May 9, 2002
244
0
0
Funny how they are the only ones that think that "price stability" equals "ever increasing prices". Their mandate is not "create a stable increase in prices" but that is what they have done. I can understand erring on the side of caution and thus ending up with very slight inflation but I see absolutely zero reason that they can't, and would posit that their charter actually demands by law, target inflation at 0. No inflation and no deflation, unchanging, the very definition of "stable".

Targeting zero would be simply reckless.

In fact quite a few economists think we are already taking too much risk with such a low target.
 
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