Best possible scenario for post-Bulldozer AMD x86 CPUs?

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carop

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Jul 9, 2012
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Intel's 14nm is not the same as Samsung's 14nm for a host of reasons, including the fact they are delivering a full node's worth of a real shrinking over that of their existing 22nm node.

Part of the reason no one else is able to deliver reduced xtor expense per node is because no one but Intel has invested in the tools necessary to enable a full shrink for the BEOL for the 14nm node.

Does Intel has the balls to publish the process/device specs of its 14nm node?
 

SOFTengCOMPelec

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May 9, 2013
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There must be a lot more to it, than process technology ?

Arm have gone from nothing, to becoming an ever bigger player in the cpu market, probably being the biggest one, in the hand-held/embedded/tablet markets.

Yet they make no chips (they don't even sell chips/cpus), ignoring prototypes/development systems.

If AMD had done what Arm has done, maybe they could compete with Intel better.

I'm convinced that Intels process lead could be in jeopardy, sooner or later. A seriously bad transition, to some new size, combined with successes elsewhere (China ?), could see them lose the lead.

Maybe in ten years time we will see Arm and some Chinese (or Asia) manufacturer take the lead, for most cpus.

Or maybe something new (as regards ICs), needs to be invented.
 

carop

Member
Jul 9, 2012
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Process/device specs are usually published at major conferences such as IEDM, ISSCC, or VLSI. 2014 ISSCC was held in February. 2014 VLSI was in June. The 2014 IEDM program will be available in September.

IDF is their spinning ground. They can show all kinds of power point slides at IDF. Like the famous chart that claimed 37% performance advantage coming from FinFETs with no silicon data to back it up. But wait, they actually showed ring oscillator data at VLSI to support that claim, but I am sure they wish they didn't.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
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It isn't a bold statement.

We have Intel 32 and TSMC/Samsung 28.

Intel increases density and adds FinFET and calls it 22.
TSMC/Samsung increases density and then adds FinFETs afterwards, calls it 20 and then 16/14.

See what they did? 20nm should have been called 20LP and the FinFET version should have been called 20HP, just like they did with 28nm.

You can have 20nm LP FinFet and 20nm HP FinFet.

16/14nm is a new Full Node process no matter is they use the same BEOL as 20nm. You cannot directly port you IC design from 20nm to 16/14nm FinFet because of different rules.
 

raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
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You links shows no such thing as 14nm or 16nm for AMD.

You make it sound like Samsungs 14nm is some big secret.


Do you have any specs on Intel's 14nm FINFET or are you just arguing for the sake of it. Intel's 22nm FINFET has comparable density to foundries 28nm. The truth is Intel's products like Baytrail have not shown any significant die size advantage over foundries products like Apple A7 (Samsung 28nm) or AMD Beema( GF 28nm). All these chips are roughly a billion transistors and 100 sq mm in die size.

Samsung 14LPE gate last process brings a 1.9x density increase over their 28nm hkmg gate first process. It also brings a 51% power reduction at same transistor performance. 14LPP which comes later brings close to 20% power reduction over 14LPE and 60% power reduction over 28nm.

https://www.semiwiki.com/forum/content/3688-samsung-foundry-explained.html

TSMC has stated their 16FF+ matches Intel 14nm in transistor performance while being marginally behind on transistor density.

http://electronics360.globalspec.com/article/3974/tsmc-tweaks-16nm-finfet-to-match-intel

Samsung 14LPP and TSMC 16FF+ are comparable on both transistor density and performance. Both are competitive with Intel 14nm.

Intel, Samsung and TSMC are all using dual pattern immersion lithography and FINFET at 14/16 nm. Intel's lead which you talk about is only time to market by roughly 9 - 12 months.
 
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AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
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And just to put it to rest, straight for the horse's mouth.

AMD Q2 2014 Seaking Alpha Page - 5

Lisa Su - SVP and COOHello John, so let me take a step at that. I think when you look at what's important to us, I mean clearly process technology is an important element but we have invested quite a bit in architecture, design techniques, new IP software. So, I wouldn’t say that process technology is the first and primary determinants for us. It is important that we are on competitive technology, so we have said before and I will say again that 20 nanometer is an important note for us. We will be shipping products in 20 nanometer next year and as we move forward obviously a FinFET is also important. So, if you look at our business, it is quite a bit more balanced between the semi-custom, embedded sort of commercial PRO Graphics growth portions as well as the more traditional sort of client and graphics pieces of our business. So technology plays in all of those businesses.
 
Mar 10, 2006
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Do you have any specs on Intel's 14nm FINFET or are you just arguing for the sake of it. Intel's 22nm FINFET has comparable density to foundries 28nm. The truth is Intel's products like Baytrail have not shown any significant die size advantage over foundries products like Apple A7 (Samsung 28nm) or AMD Beema( GF 28nm). All these chips are roughly a billion transistors and 100 sq mm in die size.

Samsung 14LPE gate last process brings a 1.9x density increase over their 28nm hkmg gate first process. It also brings a 51% power reduction at same transistor performance. 14LPP which comes later brings close to 20% power reduction over 14LPE and 60% power reduction over 28nm.

https://www.semiwiki.com/forum/content/3688-samsung-foundry-explained.html

TSMC has stated their 16FF+ matches Intel 14nm in transistor performance while being marginally behind on transistor density.

http://electronics360.globalspec.com/article/3974/tsmc-tweaks-16nm-finfet-to-match-intel

Samsung 14LPP and TSMC 16FF+ are comparable on both transistor density and performance. Both are competitive with Intel 14nm.

Intel, Samsung and TSMC are all using dual pattern immersion lithography and FINFET at 14/16 nm. Intel's lead which you talk about is only time to market by roughly 9 - 12 months.

Interesting how you take TSMC's word on their transistor performances/densities being "comparable" when Intel hasn't published a thing about them. However, there was a post from liahos1 on this very forum that you may want to read on this topic. He got ahold of what seems to have been a very interesting research note from a sell-side shop that did an investor tour with Intel's Bill Holt.

FWIW i'm posting research summary from a wall st firm that took Bill Holt and Jason Waxman around for two weeks to meet with investors....

1) Intel cost lead likely extends at 10nm – due to Intel’s “Inverse Optical Lithography” capability

a. Intel’s 14nm MPUs are 6 months behind schedule, making smaller transistors is a real challenge due to the delay in EUV lithography tools

b. To make the smaller transistor using DUV, they had to develop an “Inverse Optical Lithography” capability
i. This means they now have to use “diffracted” light to print transistors on wafers, instead of direct light
ii. The need to use diffracted light created an optical engineering challenge that “exploded” at Intel at 14nm
c. Intel has now developed this this “Inverse Optical Lithography” capability in house, it is a huge competitive advantage
d. TSMC and Samsung will run into this problem at 10nm, because their “10nm” features will be the same size as Intel’s “14nm” features
Bottom line: Intel will gain a transistor cost lead for the first time ever at 14nm, and will extend that at 10nm as TSMC and Samsung struggle to solve this Inverse Optical Lithography challenge

2) Low Power ARM Threat in Servers Appears Overstated
a. One consensus bear thesis on Intel is that ARM will disrupt Intel in Servers like it did to PCs
b. The argument goes like this: “Power costs for servers are high, so low power ARM is the solution…and Cloud players are moving to commodity servers, so that puts downward pressure on ASPs and margins for Intel”
c. Intel showed that Cloud plays (Google, Amazon, Facebook) were actually migrating up the MPU stack to higher end server MPUs
d. Intel server MPU ASPs have increased in 7 of the last 8 quarters, and from $450 to $600 over the past several years, even as Cloud plays have grown in size
e. The premise of the bear argument is misplaced. The issue is TCO (Total Cost of Ownership), or Performance/Watt/Dollar, not pure power, and Intel’s transistor cost leadership keeps them way ahead on this metric
Bottom Line: the data throws a harpoon into the side of the “Low Power ARM disrupts Intel in Servers” bear case

Other Tidbits:
1) Intel is making semi-custom server chips for high-volume customers, creating another barrier to ARM in servers
2) Intel views the Grantley server upgrade cycle as a 7-to-8 out of 10, with Nehalem being a 9/10 and Romley being a 5/10
3) Rockchip is an example of how Intel is getting more creative/aggressive in prosecuting the low-power tablet/mobile market
4) Don’t be surprised to see an announcement from Intel on a III-V compound materials advancement this year, that would put them another leg up on its competitors
5) The Public Cloud players (Google, Amazon, Facebook) are not cannibalizing Enterprise. At least 75% of their workloads are consumer based
a. Search
b. Social Media
c. Shopping
d. Games

http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=36515598&postcount=10

Interesting also that Sammy is claiming 64nm minimum metal pitch and 78nm gate pitch. Intel's 22nm gate pitch was 90nm according to Chipworks:

http://www.chipworks.com/en/technic...tel-details-22nm-trigate-soc-process-at-iedm/

Metal pitch for 22nm SoC was 90nm for M1 and 80 for M2-M6 if I am remembering correctly (it was an IDF 2012 or 2013 presentation).

Ah...here we go: http://www.intel.com/content/dam/ww...ilicon-technology-leadership-presentation.pdf

Anyway, WAG here, but Intel typically scales gate pitch by 0.7 each generation, so assuming 14nm was a "normal" generation, 0.7*90 = 63nm. Intel is claiming >2x (let's call it 2.25x), so that would suggest 0.66*90 = ~60nm. Gate pitch for Intel 14nm should be quite a bit better than Sammy/TSMC (IIRC, TSMC's gate pitch at 16nm is 80nm). The big question that remains unanswered is metal pitch and transistor performance.

Intel will publish the specifications for all to see in open forum in 1 month and 7 days, though, so it's not terribly long now.
 
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SOFTengCOMPelec

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May 9, 2013
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Why has a thread about AMD, and its possible future new FX etc cpus, suddenly apparently turned into an Intel process tech vs Other IC manufacturers discussion ?
 

raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
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Interesting how you take TSMC's word on their transistor performances/densities being "comparable" when Intel hasn't published a thing about them. However, there was a post from liahos1 on this very forum that you may want to read on this topic. He got ahold of what seems to have been a very interesting research note from a sell-side shop that did an investor tour with Intel's Bill Holt.

http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=36515598&postcount=10

Intel will publish the specifications for all to see in open forum in 1 month and 7 days, though.

I don't take any company's statements as the final truth. As usual the products will be the proof of the pudding.

Intel 14nm - Cherrytrail and Broadwell , Broxton and Skywell
TSMC 20nm- Apple A8 / Snapdragon S810
GF 20LPM or TSMC 20nm - AMD 2015 Skybridge Puma+ and low power ARM A57 based HSA APUs.
Samsung 14LPE/14LPP - Apple A9 / Next gen custom ARMV8 core based Snapdragon, AMD 2016 new high performance x86 core based APUs (manufactured at GF )
 

raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
4,093
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Why has a thread about AMD, and its possible future new FX etc cpus, suddenly apparently turned into an Intel process tech vs Other IC manufacturers discussion ?

good question. the same people always end up in an AMD thread to take the thread off topic and turn it into an Intel worshipping exercise.
 
Mar 10, 2006
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good question. the same people always end up in an AMD thread to take the thread off topic and turn it into an Intel worshipping exercise.

Worshipping a company is silliness. However, AMD's future is pretty directly impacted by the existence of Intel, so any discussion of AMD's future/competitiveness without understanding where its principal competition will be is pretty worthless.

For example, if the thread were "Best Possible Scenario for Post-22nm Intel Mobile Processors", any discussion that did not include Qualcomm, as well as the various in-house efforts at the relevant OEMs, would be just as worthless. Of course, I am sure in that case, the tables would turn and such a thread would seem a Qualcomm-worshipping exercise because Qualcomm is so far ahead of every other competitor
 
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SOFTengCOMPelec

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May 9, 2013
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I've spent quite a lot of time, looking into the Socket AM1 + AMD Athlon 5350 (Kabini), and I've been very pleased with what I've found out.

The most amazing thing about them is the very low price points.

I wonder if there would be some way that a new type of FX processor could be created, where the cpus, are actually multi-die 5350 (and later Beema/Mullins) processors ?
If I remember correctly, that is how things use to be done, a long time ago. (To make dual processors, etc).
Maybe if the I/O buses/ports were made two mode.

Mode one is single chip AMD 5350 mode, where it simple connects to the motherboard stuff, to make Satas/USBs etc.

Mode two, is multi chip, and these same I/O connections become a very high speed, inter-cpu bus/port, and any spare I/O will increase the number of Sata/USBs etc the FX series will have.

One of the multi-dies could have a bust or missing graphics (gpu), the other could have a working one, or a faulty one.
It might even be able to combine multi-IGPs, to make an even better on-chip Igpu.

Because it's multi-die, the possible yield issues of high core count cpus, should be reduced/eliminated.
The upcoming Beema/Mullins are apparently very low power (TDP), making it even more viable to make them multi-die packages.

Obviously the existing designs would probably NOT work, until the inter-cpu communications was sorted out.
 
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witeken

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Dec 25, 2013
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Do you have any specs on Intel's 14nm FINFET

TSMC has stated their 16FF+ matches Intel 14nm in transistor performance while being marginally behind on transistor density.
No, and TSMC doesn't have any specs either, so TSMC's statement's trustworthiness is zero.


Intel's lead which you talk about is only time to market by roughly 9 - 12 months.
We don't know any launch dates of 20FF, even less about FF+ or LPP, nor do we know how the transistor characteristics compare to Intel (but I suppose it's comparable to 22nm), but we know density will be much less and still quite a bit (1.3x) less (14nm compared to FinFET+). But note that density is mainly important for cost/transistor, which we already know will be extremely bad for the foundries' FinFETs, while Intel's 14nm excels.
 

raghu78

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Aug 23, 2012
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Worshipping a company is silliness. However, AMD's future is pretty directly impacted by the existence of Intel, so any discussion of AMD's future/competitiveness without understanding where its principal competition will be is pretty worthless.

For example, if the thread were "Best Possible Scenario for Post-22nm Intel Mobile Processors", any discussion that did not include Qualcomm, as well as the various in-house efforts at the relevant OEMs, would be just as worthless. Of course, I am sure in that case, the tables would turn and such a thread would seem a Qualcomm-worshipping exercise because Qualcomm is so far ahead of every other competitor

AMD's future depends on 2 things -
1.) the design and architecture of their products which directly affects perf and efficiency (perf/watt).
2.) Their foundry process tech which in this case is Samsung tech licensed by GF (since GF is the major foundry for AMD apu/cpu ).

AMD did well when they had a good design like K8 Athlon 64 and failed badly when they had a bad design (Bulldozer). AMD also had a lesser process gap (6 - 12 months) back in the old days upto 90nm. From 65nm onwards Intel raced ahead and AMD fell behind by roughly a full node (24 months). At Samsung/GF 14nm FINFET AMD will be able to close the process gap slightly.
 

witeken

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Dec 25, 2013
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No they are not, 20nm is planar when 16/14nm is FinFet. You cannot directly port 20nm planar IC design to 16/14nm FinFet.

I know I read this "same design rules" statement somewhere, but indeed, it wasn't 20nm/16nm but 16nm and 16nm Plus.
 
Mar 10, 2006
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No, and TSMC doesn't have any specs either, so TSMC's statement's trustworthiness is zero.

That's actually not true. TSMC published a paper at IEDM 2013 detailing its 16 FinFET process. From a transistor performance perspective, TSMC's 16 FinFET process was extremely impressive. Where the process wasn't so impressive was SRAM density, which came in at 0.07um^2 for its high density cell.

Samsung claims 0.064um^2 for its 14nm high density SRAM cell (which would make sense given that Samsung's process sports tighter gate pitches than the TSMC process).

But note that density is mainly important for cost/transistor, which we already know will be extremely bad for the foundries' FinFETs, while Intel's 14nm excels.

I would say another big part of cost/transistor is yield. Intel does not go into high volume production until its yields are at very high levels (to protect margins).
 

raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
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No, and TSMC doesn't have any specs either, so TSMC's statement's trustworthiness is zero.


http://electroiq.com/blog/2013/10/tsmc-to-unveil-16nm-finfet-platform-at-iedm/

TSMC has revealed their 16FF process details at IEDM 2013. TSMC 16FF+ adds 15% density and transistor performance increase over 16FF.

We don't know any launch dates of 20FF, even less about FF+ or LPP, nor do we know how the transistor characteristics compare to Intel (but I suppose it's comparable to 22nm), but we know density will be much less and still quite a bit (1.3x) less (14nm compared to FinFET+). But note that density is mainly important for cost/transistor, which we already know will be extremely bad for the foundries' FinFETs, while Intel's 14nm excels.
Samsung and TSMC have provided quite a bit of information about their process while Intel seems to be waiting for IDF 2014 to reveal details about their process. As for the claims I believe final products will settle the discussion once and for all.
 
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witeken

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Dec 25, 2013
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Why has a thread about AMD, and its possible future new FX etc cpus, suddenly apparently turned into an Intel process tech vs Other IC manufacturers discussion ?

Because that's how discussions work: they digress to other, related, subjects when necessary. I hope that answered your question.
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
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AMD's future depends on 2 things -
1.) the design and architecture of their products which directly affects perf and efficiency (perf/watt).
2.) Their foundry process tech which in this case is Samsung tech licensed by GF (since GF is the major foundry for AMD apu/cpu ).

AMD did well when they had a good design like K8 Athlon 64 and failed badly when they had a bad design (Bulldozer). AMD also had a lesser process gap (6 - 12 months) back in the old days upto 90nm. From 65nm onwards Intel raced ahead and AMD fell behind by roughly a full node (24 months). At Samsung/GF 14nm FINFET AMD will be able to close the process gap slightly.

Maybe. I remember the K8 days and AMD was a very impressive, vibrant company. Were it not for a poor experience that I had with the VIA KT-300 chipset with my Athlon XP 2200+ (remember those PR ratings? ), I probably would have moved to K8 based systems -- but I was too cautious (and too broke) to afford another system that had issues.

Now, to your point, I would say that AMD's challenge is more difficult today because its R&D budget is smaller relative to Intel's than it ever has been, it's reliant on the foundries for manufacturing (and they will be charging more for their latest nodes), and the costs to design chips on these latest nodes are higher than ever.

It's just not as simple as "oh, we know the architectures we've put out over the last 7 years haven't been competitive, but we know what we need to do now -- honest". At least in my humble opinion.

It's the same reason that Intel can't just "catch up" to Qualcomm in cellular modems with just a generation or two of investment, and why Intel can't just "catch up" with AMD and NVIDIA on graphics IP quality in just a generation -- and Intel is a company that's spending money on this stuff like mad!
 

witeken

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Dec 25, 2013
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That's actually not true. TSMC published a paper at IEDM 2013 detailing its 16 FinFET process. From a transistor performance perspective, TSMC's 16 FinFET process was extremely impressive. Where the process wasn't so impressive was SRAM density, which came in at 0.07um^2 for its high density cell.

I see that I didn't make this sentence clear enough. I mean that TSMC knows just as much about Intel's 14nm process as we do, which isn't too much.

So if they say their performance will be equal to Intel's 14nm, that isn't based on any facts.
 

SOFTengCOMPelec

Platinum Member
May 9, 2013
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Because that's how discussions work: they digress to other, related, subjects when necessary. I hope that answered your question.

There are a huge number of previous threads, in this forum (if I remember correctly), which have been badly derailed, for similar reasons.
Usually, until one of the mods (often Virge), who kindly had to go through and sort out many of the posts.
Therefore going on past experience, it would be better if we stick to the topic/AMD here, saving possible volunteer mods spare time!
 
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