I think sooner or later they are going to transition to the Cinnabon timeline. I kind of think that maybe next season that will happen.
They opened the door on that a little. The cold opening they did with Saul telling the shoplifting kid not to say anything to the cops shows that maybe he's not entirely done with the law yet. The Cinnabon timeline is unlikely to stand alone though. If that ever gets traction they'll use it like they're using it now, for 5 minute sequences here or there.
But I think you're way off on your timeline guesstimates. The Breaking Bad series was 5 seasons (or 6 depending how you count) compressed into 2 years of real time. It covered Walt's 50th birthday to his 52nd, that much was made very clear. It supposedly ran September 2008 to September 2010 although there were a couple of parts where they fudged on the months.
The BCS timeline is still fuzzy, but season 1 was definitively set in summer 2002 and only spanned 3 or 4 months of real time. No matter how you do the math, they're not any later than 2004 now which means there are still 4 years of real time before the events of BB start seeping into the BCS story.
It was overall a very weak episode, but one interesting thing happened. The bit with Nacho and Hector at the end changed my view of the Hector storyline. I though that Gus was going to be the one to do something to Hector to turn him into the invalid he is in BB. Now it looks like Nacho will be the one to do it to save his father from getting dragged into the business as a drug mule.