The bottom line: bitcoin is genuine enough currency to have created instant millionaires with an insignificant amount of capital. The end.
Wish I wouldn't miss the next bubble though! Fuck it's like, how the hell do we let people make money by doing absolutely nothing other then having spare $ to gamble with? :awe:
This one is interesting though...it got so much hype and exploded out of nowhere.
I remember seeing these threads years ago and thinking "Naw fuck, this has to be some type of scam. No way you can make X times your money by doing nothing but fold@home....doesn't make sense"
Yet here we are...it's the next big collector's item and for some odd reason everyone (well not everyone) wants a piece of it.
Your charts are no more accurate than staring at tea leaves. The $660 for example. Why not get in at $500? Or $550? BTC has continued to go up regardless. Technical analysis is a way for people to try and make sense out of what makes no sense.I'll ride the wave (buying after breakouts from proper bases), economics be damned, and get out when the chart tells me to. CROX was a great stock to buy and hold for a while, and had sell signals before it tanked. Smart money got out before it was too late, and it showed in the charts. There were also several gas/oil stocks that were the same. Hell, even AMD was a great buy at one point.
I recommended to people here who sold BTC @ $400 to get back in after $448, but only after it broke out over $448, and hold until $400 (minimize losses) or $660+. That was a damn good strategy, and I hope some people took my advice.
The advice today was to buy LTC after $48.5, and was not saying to get in at the prices today. In fact just yesterday said I didn't like the action and was out. Today's action broke the base (I even said it wasn't a great base, didn't I?), and nullifies the prediction. We'll see if it can recover over the next few days or weeks, and if it does break $48.5 it may still be a buy.
Being right with one stock, for one specific period of time is nothing more than luck.You said don't buy @ $3, or any other price. I said buy @ $448. I hope you don't manage anyone's money but your own.
What if it's worth $10?What if BTC is worth $100K a pop this time next year?
Your charts are no more accurate than staring at tea leaves. The $660 for example. Why not get in at $500? Or $550? BTC has continued to go up regardless. Technical analysis is a way for people to try and make sense out of what makes no sense.Being right with one stock, for one specific period of time is nothing more than luck.
The run up has confirmed beyond any shadow of a doubt that Bitcoin is utterly worthless as a currency. It is too unstable to ever be one, and it never will be stable despite the impassioned pleas of bitcoin supporters that it eventually will be.
I love how people on the reddit bitcoin forum actually waste time by emailing real companies like amazon telling them to accept bitcoin. So silly.What if it's worth $10?
This is a digital tulip mania.
As much as I hate to believe it, it pretty much is Tulip mania 2.0 at this point. You CANNOT feasibly argue the currency is working the way it was intended to when it was designed. I can't imagine running a store with bitcoins with how much they fluctuate currently. One transaction either way could net both parties significant losses/earnings. This is more akin of bitcoins becoming the new fad; I knew this once it hit cnn and I had clients in their 40's asking me if it was smart to buy in at 800.
And I don't care if it is Tulip mania 2.0 or not. I intend to make my money, cash out when the charts show weakness, and not buy back in until the charts say it's safe to do so. Maximize gain and minimize loss is all it is, and I'll take the risky 1000% gains over boring 10% gains any day of the week.
Serious question: where should one start reading to learn the charting/technical analysis methodology?
I see posts saying "buy/sell because of characteristic X on the chart", but where can one go to learn how to do that for themselves?
This is a digital tulip mania.
You said don't buy @ $3, or any other price. I said buy @ $448. I hope you don't manage anyone's money but your own.
I think you're confused what investment management actually entails. Plowing everything into NQ in 1999 and waiting for "charts to tell you" when to get out isn't it. If you can't defend why your predictions aren't purely incidental/luck* and have any economical basis, you're almost certainly doing it wrong.
*you see coffee mug, I see a camel etc.
Looks a lot like Tesla. Went to 195, dropped to 120, and now has the "dead cat bounce" to 142 while the company still has no earnings.Edit: I've always liked this chart showing how a speculative bubble works. If you look at charts for things like .com stocks in the 90's or housing prices in the 00's, they often look like this:
Also, "don't fight the fed." They pump up then crash the stock market by changing interest rates. Lowering interest rates encourages people to borrow up to their eyeballs with margin debt. Raising interest rates causes marginal investors to start de-leveraging, and this triggers widespread margin calls which crash the stock market. As economists have pointed out numerous times, they can't drop interest rates lower than 0, so they take the next step by doing QE on top of 0% interest. The next crash will not be triggered by interest rates, but by the lack of QE. The market starts to decline every time the idea of tapering QE is on the tab, as it is right now. If you are you in the stock market, now is the time to get out.If you're talking about the tech bubble and subesquent crash, then yes, the charts told you to get out long before it crashed. In fact, the charts told me to get out of stocks in 2008, and I was out in April while the DJI was still above 12,000.
A lot of technical analysis is just the chart form of psychology. Seeing something go parabolic is a classic "technical" indicator that something is a bubble. You don't even need to know what is going parabolic. It could be Tesla, it could be bitcoins, it could be tulips. The dead cat bounce is another interesting technical thing to see. Things tend to crash, then rally, then crash again. I wouldn't be surprised if there really was something similar to a "sitting camel" pattern, but it would be difficult to spot and most people would get it wrong. Very few people can make money through technical analysis. Fundamental analysis is much easier.Your charts are no more accurate than staring at tea leaves. The $660 for example. Why not get in at $500? Or $550? BTC has continued to go up regardless. Technical analysis is a way for people to try and make sense out of what makes no sense.
Also, "don't fight the fed." They pump up then crash the stock market by changing interest rates.
I'm expecting BTC to rally back to ~$1135, LTC to rally back to ~$39, and I'm going to cash for possibly a couple of months while they sell back down.
waiting for "charts to tell you" when to get out isn't it.
The idiosyncratic risk on this this is through the roof:
http://www.businessinsider.com/bitco...ow-900-2013-12
The charts told me when to get out, and it paid off big time.
Its hard for a currency to survive when it changes 25% in a day. Every shop accepting bitcoin becomes a speculator whther they like it or not. I bet that Tesla dealer who sold a car for bitcoin is regretting his descision.
One thing that suprises me about bitcoin is how quick people have been to trust it. We know hackable the web is. Couldn't somebody find an exploit in bitcoin and take advantage of it to take control of all bitcoin? Maybe somebody already has and is being sneaky about it.
Tulip mania, man. Everyone is blinded. I was too and thought bitcoin was possible, but this level of fluctuation is exactly what makes it a bad idea for a currency.