Blackjack Experts: CSMs using preferential shuffling?

[QueBert]

Originally posted by: DJFuji
lol pechanga is the only place i've seen the dealer hit a blackjack 4 times in a row. He might have hit it more than that but i left the table in disgust after the 4th time.

I fuckin hate Pechanga, they have sweet Hold 'Em tables, and since that's against other people not the casino I'll play that there. I refuse to play Blackjack there, I have seen things that just boggle the mind, I saw a guy hit 21 3 times there and have the dealer push all 3. I'm not good with odds and numbers but that should be impossible, not even highly unlikely but impossible. And fuck their janky ass Buffet too, the Tri-Tip steak wasn't even good. I almost never play Blackjack but I like to watch it, and what I see just doesn't make any sense to me.
Isn't Pechanga the casino that has "Craps" that they play with 1-6 cards instead of Dice? I like Craps but I found that shit to be just as bad as blackjack, maybe that was at Morongo(sp?)

I'm about go go register fuckpechanga.com

 

[Kev]

Oh and another thing:

"or 2) The CSM was preferentially shuffling so that low cards came out more than face cards. "

Do you really think the CSM has card recognition technology that allows it to read which cards are which and put them in a particular order? Don't you think the gaming commission might have a problem with such equipment?

 

[LikeLinus]

Originally posted by: Kev
Oh and another thing:

"or 2) The CSM was preferentially shuffling so that low cards came out more than face cards. "

Do you really think the CSM has card recognition technology that allows it to read which cards are which and put them in a particular order? Don't you think the gaming commission might have a problem with such equipment?

FYI: Indian casinos are actually regulated by the National Indian Gaming Commission. It's not the same gaming commission that is over gaming facilities on non-Indian land.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I..._Gaming_Regulatory_Act

Not that it matters, but it is different.

Additonally, all a card machine would need to do is identify two different colors on one card. All other cards have a single color on the face. It's not exactly rocket science. Don't act like we live in the 1920s. I don't think they are cheating, but it's not impossible tech wise.

 

[Kntx]

Originally posted by: DJFuji

Originally posted by: akshatp

Originally posted by: DJFuji
Yeah i know...but if a CSM gives a near-random distribution of cards each time, then counting should theoretically come out to 0 or close to it after an hour of play. It's like flipping a coin 100 times. It should come closer and closer to 50/50 over time.

We ended up with +55, meaning that there were WAY more low cards being dealt out than high cards.

You can never get a true count because you never have a "starting" or "ending" point because there is no shuffle. Are you seriosuly not getting this?

I know you can't get a true count. I'm well aware of these facts. In fact, i stated all of these things in the original post.

But statistically, over the long haul, shouldn't the count come close to 0?

I think that over the long haul the average of the count should be 0 if you are using a balanced counting system. If you're using an unbalanced system, I'm not sure how a CSM would affect the count.

In any case, it sounds like a shady casino.

 

[DJFuji]

Originally posted by: LikeLinus

Originally posted by: Kev
Oh and another thing:

"or 2) The CSM was preferentially shuffling so that low cards came out more than face cards. "

Do you really think the CSM has card recognition technology that allows it to read which cards are which and put them in a particular order? Don't you think the gaming commission might have a problem with such equipment?

FYI: Indian casinos are actually regulated by the National Indian Gaming Commission. It's not the same gaming commission that is over gaming facilities on non-Indian land.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I..._Gaming_Regulatory_Act

Not that it matters, but it is different.

Additonally, all a card machine would need to do is identify two different colors on one card. All other cards have a single color on the face. It's not exactly rocket science. Don't act like we live in the 1920s. I don't think they are cheating, but it's not impossible tech wise.

I've actually heard rumors that some of the CSMs didn't shuffle continuously. They only shuffled when a certain number of cards had been played or supposedly when it detected that the count was too high. Probably not true, but it would have explained the +55 count...

 

[gorcorps]

Originally posted by: QueBert

Originally posted by: DJFuji
lol pechanga is the only place i've seen the dealer hit a blackjack 4 times in a row. He might have hit it more than that but i left the table in disgust after the 4th time.

I fuckin hate Pechanga, they have sweet Hold 'Em tables, and since that's against other people not the casino I'll play that there. I refuse to play Blackjack there, I have seen things that just boggle the mind, I saw a guy hit 21 3 times there and have the dealer push all 3. I'm not good with odds and numbers but that should be impossible, not even highly unlikely but impossible. And fuck their janky ass Buffet too, the Tri-Tip steak wasn't even good. I almost never play Blackjack but I like to watch it, and what I see just doesn't make any sense to me.
Isn't Pechanga the casino that has "Craps" that they play with 1-6 cards instead of Dice? I like Craps but I found that shit to be just as bad as blackjack, maybe that was at Morongo(sp?)

I'm about go go register fuckpechanga.com

Pretty obvious you're not good with stats if you think it's downright impossible. If it's possible to do it once and the cards just get pushed back into the deck then it's just as probable it'll happen again.

 

[imported_gshock]

I hate those never ending shufflers. Might as well play the lottery

 

[Presence]

I love how you bolded your statements in the original posts. And yet still cant comprehend why over a long amount of hands played the count wont go back to zero. Count is used to determine what cards have come out and no longer in the deck. Count means ABSOLUTELY nothing in a CSM as the cards are getting reshuffled back in the deck. If you cant understand that then I wouldnt be gambling.

 

[DJFuji]

If the cards are being reshuffled back in the deck, it means the cards coming out each hand are completely randon. Which means that there should be a generally equal number of high and low cards. Which means the count should be around 0. If you play for any kind of extended period and the count is massively high or low, it means the cards arent coming out randomly.

 

[mugs]

Originally posted by: RichardE

Originally posted by: DJFuji
Yeah i know...but if a CSM gives a near-random distribution of cards each time, then counting should theoretically come out to 0 or close to it after an hour of play. It's like flipping a coin 100 times. It should come closer and closer to 50/50 over time.

We ended up with +55, meaning that there were WAY more low cards being dealt out than high cards.

Except over 100 flips the chances of getting 50/50 are the same as getting 100/0. Akshatp explained it better though.

Erroneous! Erroneous on all counts!

The odds of getting 100/0 are not even CLOSE to the odds of 50/50. With 100 flips there are 1.2676506 × 10^30 possible outcomes, and only two have 100 straight flips of the same side of the coin. I don't recall how to calculate how many outcomes are 50/50, but I could list a lot more than 2 without breaking a sweat.

Order does not matter.

If I had to guess, I'd assume the OP doesn't know how to count cards. Or maybe the OP doesn't understand that there are more low cards than high (10) cards in a deck, so he should expect a lot more low cards.

* I know nothing about card counting.

 

[herm0016]

100!/(50!(100-50)! = 1.00891345 × 10^29 ways to pick 50 out of 100

number of possible outcomes: 2^100 = 1.2676506 × 10^30

100 flips
odds of getting all heads or all tails is 2/1.2676506 × 10^30=1.57772181 × 10-30
odds of getting 50 of one or the other is .0795892378

but the odds of getting a heads or tails each time you flip is still 1/2

 

[DJFuji]

Originally posted by: mugs
* I know nothing about card counting.

QFT.

Using Hi-Lo, there are an equal number of high cards and low cards. That means that if you deal out 1000 random cards from an infinite deck, the "count" should end up right around 0. It'd be like dealing out cards seeing if you get a black or red suit.

 

[Presence]

Originally posted by: DJFuji
If the cards are being reshuffled back in the deck, it means the cards coming out each hand are completely randon. Which means that there should be a generally equal number of high and low cards. Which means the count should be around 0. If you play for any kind of extended period and the count is massively high or low, it means the cards arent coming out randomly.

Man you still dont get it.

Once the dealer puts the little amount of cards in the discard rack back (like every other two hands or so) into the CSM the count goes back to zero. You dont keep a running tally of the count.

 

[Schfifty Five]

It sounds like you are taking your 1 hour of play and assuming that is representative of "the long haul".

Now, I'm not really sure how variance and distribution play when it comes to CSM, but if they did have some meaning, then your 1 hour of play is pretty much worthless in the grand scheme of things. Try taking your 1 hour and multiplying it by 10,000....you might see that the cards are random then.

 

[DJFuji]

Originally posted by: Presence

Originally posted by: DJFuji
If the cards are being reshuffled back in the deck, it means the cards coming out each hand are completely randon. Which means that there should be a generally equal number of high and low cards. Which means the count should be around 0. If you play for any kind of extended period and the count is massively high or low, it means the cards arent coming out randomly.

Man you still dont get it.

Once the dealer puts the little amount of cards in the discard rack back (like every other two hands or so) into the CSM the count goes back to zero. You dont keep a running tally of the count.

You're explaining why making your bets based on the count doesn't make sense. What you're NOT explaining is why the count is so off.

 

[DJFuji]

Originally posted by: Schfifty Five
It sounds like you are taking your 1 hour of play and assuming that is representative of "the long haul".

Now, I'm not really sure how variance and distribution play when it comes to CSM, but if they did have some meaning, then your 1 hour of play is pretty much worthless in the grand scheme of things. Try taking your 1 hour and multiplying it by 10,000....you might see that the cards are random then.

Maybe it would come out even. But it's like flipping a coin 300 times in one hour and getting heads 279 times. Even though over the long haul it should even out, 279/300 on a 50/50 odds is still strange. It indicates that something isn't right.

 

[Schfifty Five]

Originally posted by: DJFuji

Originally posted by: Schfifty Five
It sounds like you are taking your 1 hour of play and assuming that is representative of "the long haul".

Now, I'm not really sure how variance and distribution play when it comes to CSM, but if they did have some meaning, then your 1 hour of play is pretty much worthless in the grand scheme of things. Try taking your 1 hour and multiplying it by 10,000....you might see that the cards are random then.

Maybe it would come out even. But it's like flipping a coin 300 times in one hour and getting heads 279 times. Even though over the long haul it should even out, 279/300 on a 50/50 odds is still strange. It indicates that something isn't right.

Yeah and? Like I said, it's variance.

Sounds like you don't know or understand what variance is.