[Bloomberg] Apple starting process to dump Intel in Macs

[chrisjames61]

The days of getting a Mac and expecting it to be supported for 6+ years are coming to an end, boys and girls.

What evidence do you have to back up that claim?

 

[PeterScott]

This is still a rumor. Bloomberg posted a similar report in 2012:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...exploring-switch-from-intel-chips-for-the-mac

It's one of those rumors that if you repeat it long enough, it will probably eventually come true... It does seem likely that 20 years from now Apple will be running on ARM chips, so might we all. So it is one of those things you can keep going to the well on. Getting page hits, and someday you may be right.

The transition would be messy.

Unless Apple has a damn good story for the high end, I think it would be the final nail in the coffin for Pros to just abandon Apple for Windows. Really with the way Apple treats the high customers (Mac Pro), I am surprised the have any left.

 

[Eug]

Here is the inevitable "useless" cross platform Geekbench 4 comparison:

Core m3-7Y32 MacBook: 7070
iPhone X - A11 Bionic: 10700 (+51%)

Now, that +51% stat is likely misleading but nonetheless I've been saying for a couple of years now that ARM performance is no longer a big issue for the mainstream. For example, using Microsoft Office sucks on the iPad, but it's not the performance that's the issue. It's the interface. I have no problems performance-wise using Excel on my 2 GB iPad, but I hate using the touch screen to enter data, even with a Bluetooth keyboard add-on.

Similarly, way back when, I actually tried using a Motorola RAZR HD phone for a while as a 720p light surfing desktop and again the speed was OK. The main problem is that trying to use Android with a keyboard and mouse at that time was problematic. (One big reason the surfing speed was fine was because there was no Adobe Flash support.)

BTW, tangential comment: vlc 3 can decode high bit rate 60 fps 10-bit HDR HEVC video on my iPhone 7 Plus (A10 Fusion) just fine through hardware. This should also work fine on the iPhone 6s (A9). vlc 3 can't do it on my iMac Core i5-7600 because it seems they haven't gotten that working properly yet in hardware on the Mac. However, even if they can get it working, it still won't work on a Core i7-6700K because it doesn't have the hardware to support it. Apple A9 and the Core i7-6700K came out at around the same time.

 

[SPBHM]

this looked fairly obvious since 2013

 

[Eug]

this looked fairly obvious since 2013

It's not a matter of if, but when. 2020 seems too early to me but what do I know? I mean I could see a few models relatively soon, but not an across the board migration by 2020.

Also, what I had been thinking all along was that the iPad Pro was Apple's gauge of the market, and if it was relatively successful, they could pursue this more intensely. I foresee the iPad Pro getting much more laptop-like functionality sooner rather than later. Again, it's not the performance that is the issue, but the interface.

I'd see Apple introducing a MacBook and maybe MacBook Pro on ARM to start. That would attack this on two fronts. The project to bring unified apps to iOS and macOS is significant.

 

[PeterScott]

It's not a matter of if, but when. 2020 seems too early to me but what do I know? I mean I could see a few models relatively soon, but not an across the board migration by 2020.

Also, what I had been thinking all along was that the iPad Pro was Apple's gauge of the market, and if it was relatively successful, they could pursue this more intensely. I foresee the iPad Pro getting much more laptop-like functionality sooner rather than later. Again, it's not the performance that is the issue, but the interface.

I'd see Apple introducing a MacBook and maybe MacBook Pro on ARM to start. That would attack this on two fronts. The project to bring unified apps to iOS and macOS is significant.

The more years of unified apps, the more painless the transition would be.

 

[ondma]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...to-move-from-intel-to-own-mac-chips-from-2020

Light on details, but rumor states Apple is gearing up to begin the transition away from Intel in Macs to their own processors with products as early as 2020. This has been rumored for some time that Apple would do this, but this is the first time I've seen any actual confirmation this is in the works.

You could also read this as Apple doesn't think Intel will deliver anything to keep them interested in staying.

Or AMD either, if you look at it that way, since they are going to arm.

 

[FIVR]

The timeframe involved is 2020 so by that time we can expect A14 to be in development and it will probably score at least 100% higher in MT and at least 50% higher in ST than A11. That will put it way out of range of any intel chip of similar TDP.

By that time, Apple can ask AMD to design a 7nm x86 co-processor that will process all the x86 code without emulation. The new Macs will be ARM + x86 co-processor for legacy software.


By 2020 intel will be just barely into the start of delivering 10nm products in notebooks and we can expect at best 10% increase in ST or MT, and that is being generous. We can also expect that intel would never be willing to design such a "co-processor" because they would not want to suddenly take a tiny fraction of their prior revenue for the same products (MacBooks).


I see this as great news for both Apple and AMD. Really, Apple should've thought of switching to ARM a long time ago. They've been superior to intel for a good 2-3 years already.

 

[Arachnotronic]

The timeframe involved is 2020 so by that time we can expect A14 to be in development and it will probably score at least 100% higher in MT and at least 50% higher in ST than A11. That will put it way out of range of any intel chip of similar TDP.

By that time, Apple can ask AMD to design a 7nm x86 co-processor that will process all the x86 code without emulation. The new Macs will be ARM + x86 co-processor for legacy software.


By 2020 intel will be just barely into the start of delivering 10nm products in notebooks and we can expect at best 10% increase in ST or MT, and that is being generous. We can also expect that intel would never be willing to design such a "co-processor" because they would not want to suddenly take a tiny fraction of their prior revenue for the same products (MacBooks).


I see this as great news for both Apple and AMD. Really, Apple should've thought of switching to ARM a long time ago. They've been superior to intel for a good 2-3 years already.

Uhh, AMD isn't going to be involved here. Also, you don't think they would take a tiny fraction of their prior revenue over, say, a goose egg?

 

[FIVR]

Uhh, AMD isn't going to be involved here. Also, you don't think they would take a tiny fraction of their prior revenue over, say, a goose egg?

You hope they aren't involved?


I'll tell you who definitely won't be involved - Intel

Intel isn't going to accept a small fraction of the revenue they receive for the same products. On top of the obvious loss in prestige from no longer supplying the CPU, I don't even think their margins would allow such a product. 7nm should be much higher density and AMD already has better density on 14nm. AMD will also be willing to accept much stricter control terms and production requirements along with lower compensation than intel.

Sometimes having a 60% margin for everything comes back to bite you

 

[ondma]

Uhh, AMD isn't going to be involved here. Also, you don't think they would take a tiny fraction of their prior revenue over, say, a goose egg?

Well, at least that poster can be said to see the the AMD glass "half full" instead of half empty. Or more accurately, he sees a tiny drop on the bottom of the glass as being "full".

 

[PeterScott]

Well, at least that poster can be said to see the the AMD glass "half full" instead of half empty. Or more accurately, he sees a tiny drop on the bottom of the glass as being "full".

That's more wishful thinking than anything. AMD is currently completely shut out of x86 Apple business.

If they are going ARM by 2020, that isn't going to increase the odds of AMD getting any x86 business, it's going to decrease the odds drastically.

If this story is true, AMD has essentially ZERO chance of ever getting Apple x86 business.

 

[FIVR]

The other thing people might want to consider is that with the taint of Spectre and Meltdown Apple may simply want to get as far away from x86's total lack of security as possible. Intel chips are a huge liability in that regard, AMD chips are also a liability (although less so than intel) so that may be even further argument for a fully redesigned, dedicated x86 co-processor that would have supervision of design from Apple. Maybe they even buy AMD.

Or they just do emulation. One thing is for sure - Apple is saying Intel is out of a job by 2020. Modems and all.

 

[FIVR]

AMD is completely shut out of x86 Apple business. Thinking they are going ARM isn't going to increase the odds of AMD getting any x86 business, it's going to decrease them drastically.

Why can I not configure an x86 iMac or Mac pro without AMD if they are "completely shut out of x86"?. Have you ever even owned and Apple product? You keep saying these things authoritatively about Apple.... they are not accurate....


https://www.apple.com/mac/

 

[PeterScott]

Why can I not configure an x86 iMac or Mac pro without AMD if they are "completely shut out of x86"?. Have you ever even owned and Apple product? You keep saying these things authoritatively about Apple.... they are not accurate....

Are you being purposefully obtuse?

It should be pretty obvious that when I said "shut out of x86 Apple business", that I am referring to x86 processors, that Apple sources exclusively from Intel.

 

[FIVR]

Are you being purposefully obtuse?

It should be pretty obvious that when I said "shut out of x86 Apple business", that I am referring to x86 processors, that Apple sources exclusively from Intel.

I think most people would agree that x86 motherboards, graphics cards, NICs and other such components used to make Apple x86 computers (macs) would be part of “Apple x86 business” (that is a direct quote from your post). Your use of the exclusive adjective “completely” and the phrase “shut out” leaves you with little room for being correct here. You should simply admit you were wrong and clearly know little about Apple products. At this point it is obvious.

 

[scannall]

This rumor has been flown for clicks quite a few times already. While Intel has been a disappointment to Apple more than a few times, it isn't time yet to leave the x86 nest. Will they at some point? Probably. x86 is pretty crufty, and has been flogged about as far as it will go. And Apple has done some great stuff with ARM v8. That pesky compatability bugaboo keeps popping up though. Could they introduce some kind of ARM powered 'Air' in 2020? Sure. Then migrate up the stack over the next 5 years? That might work. In this day and age of digital distribution you don't even need fat binaries any more. It just downloads the version it needs.

As far as using AMD? Maybe, but the crystal ball is pretty hazy on that one. A Threadripper Mac Pro would be pretty sweet though.

 

[North01]

Don't forget that Apple also gets the benefit of no longer giving the PC market a leg up. Apple invented the MacBook Air, Intel repackages it as the Ultrabook and sells it to their competitors.

May 2007 Intel showed off the Metro Notebook concept, it had a metal body, no CD drive and a USB port.

So did Intel repackage the MacBook Air into this concept almost a year before it came out?

And if you want to go even further back, there was the 2004 VAIO X505.

Apple requested that Intel get the TDP and size down low enough to make the fanless MacBook possible, and Intel turns around and sells it to their competitors.

Intel had Y series chips prior to the launch of Core M.

For example, here's the 2013 HP Spectre 13 x2:

It was a fanless 2-in-1 (detachable screen) that used a Y-series Haswell Core i3 or i5.

 

[senseamp]

Could be time for price negotiation with Intel. Or could be the real deal.

 

[coercitiv]

The other thing people might want to consider is that with the taint of Spectre and Meltdown Apple may simply want to get as far away from x86's total lack of security as possible. Intel chips are a huge liability in that regard, AMD chips are also a liability (although less so than intel) so that may be even further argument for a fully redesigned, dedicated x86 co-processor that would have supervision of design from Apple.

Apple's CPUs are vulnerable to both Spectre and Meltdown.

Please insert another coin.

 

[PingSpike]

Uhh, AMD isn't going to be involved here. Also, you don't think they would take a tiny fraction of their prior revenue over, say, a goose egg?

Well, the stories I've heard about the Intel iPhone miss is that when Steve Jobs approached Intel, Intel chose the goose egg that time.

 

[ultimatebob]

What evidence do you have to back up that claim?

History. When they switched from 68000 series CPU's to Power PC, they stopped supporting the 68000's just a few years later. Then, when they switched from Power PC to Intel, they stopped supporting the Power PC processors in just a few Mac OS X point releases.

 

[whm1974]

History. When they switched from 68000 series CPU's to Power PC, they stopped supporting the 68000's just a few years later. Then, when they switched from Power PC to Intel, they stopped supporting the Power PC processors in just a few Mac OS X point releases.

It might take longer to switch over to ARM from X86-64 as the x86 ISA is one of the hardest ones to emulate.

 

[FIVR]

Apple's CPUs are vulnerable to both Spectre and Meltdown.

Please insert another coin.

Apple has already stated that they are immediately re-designing their chips to be immune to these attacks.


When is intel going to have chips that are also immune? Apple is slated to release a fixed A12 in November 2018.


Most likely, Apple simply does not trust intel to build chips for it any more. Intel's abject lack of any real concern for security is on display every time they point fingers instead of addressing their own problems in hardware (which they seem to be loath to do). Intel isn't going to fix Spectre or Meltdown in hardware anytime soon.

 

[Glo.]

The timeframe involved is 2020 so by that time we can expect A14 to be in development and it will probably score at least 100% higher in MT and at least 50% higher in ST than A11. That will put it way out of range of any intel chip of similar TDP.

By that time, Apple can ask AMD to design a 7nm x86 co-processor that will process all the x86 code without emulation. The new Macs will be ARM + x86 co-processor for legacy software.


By 2020 intel will be just barely into the start of delivering 10nm products in notebooks and we can expect at best 10% increase in ST or MT, and that is being generous. We can also expect that intel would never be willing to design such a "co-processor" because they would not want to suddenly take a tiny fraction of their prior revenue for the same products (MacBooks).


I see this as great news for both Apple and AMD. Really, Apple should've thought of switching to ARM a long time ago. They've been superior to intel for a good 2-3 years already.

So what you are saying Apple will completely forget about ginormous performance difference of dGPUs and will use their SOC's across the board?

If Apple is going for desktop computers, not only basic Macbook, with fanless operation, they will not design SOC, and they will not use A14 in their computers, but something like D1. Completely custom CPU designed from the ground up for desktop computers, with high current capabilities, and high clocks, alongside wider core count.
If Apple really is planning on doing this: we should see SMT/HT in their CPUs soon enough.

Uhh, AMD isn't going to be involved here. Also, you don't think they would take a tiny fraction of their prior revenue over, say, a goose egg?

Why would they not want design Semi-Custom GPU from AMD for their desktop computers?