I don't really trust the numbers these sales tracking companies are reporting.
The format that will "win" will depend on which market you're in, or what industry you're in. For example, in Japan the BetaMax flourished while VHS barely made a dent. If you go to almost any newsroom in the US, or places like the filmroom at the Seahawks Kirkland facility, you'll have a hard time finding a VHS machine...they're all using BetaMax.
Yes, it comes down to price and content. I remember back when you couldn't buy a DVD disc for less than $20, with most prices hovering around $25-30....and that's where we are right now with HD discs. A player couldn't be bought for less than $300, and then seven months ago I bought a very nice JVC unit for less than $40 shipped. If the discs start coming down in price, as well as the hardware, you'll have a dominant format. But it may not be the "winning" format, both may continue to exist..
Dropping the hardware price has been far more difficult for Blu-Ray than it has been for HD-DVD.
Two months ago some idiot said,
"Within three years it will just be Blu-ray". He was actually speaking on behalf of the Blu-ray Association, and he wasn't just talking about HD-DVD...he was also talking about DVD.
Well, as we all know, DVD has had more than THREE TIMES that amount of time to wipe out tape. It didn't happen. You can still buy the players, the movies and the blanks.
Oh yeah...the idiot also said Blu-ray's dominance would be achieved with a game console. And I think we all know now just how pleased Sony is with PS3 sales...there are now rampant rumors that they will either cut prices, or cut production.
Neither format will displace DVD for some time to come.