Originally posted by: gobucks
I'm guessing HD-DVD will win for 3 reasons:
1) Price - it looks like HD-DVD is really pulling ahead on pricing, and this looks to continue - i read somewhere that Walmart just agreed to buy a crapload of HD-DVD players from either Toshiba or LG for under $150, and given Walmart's low profit margins, I'd think they would retail for $160-170. Blu-ray, on the other hand, still has trouble releasing a player that costs less than the PS3, and the PS3 isn't selling that well even though it is basically giving blu-ray fans a top of the line game console for free!
2) Production - HD-DVD media and players are very similar to regular DVDs, so it should be simpler for existing producers of DVD media to convert over to mass production of HD-DVD media, which should bring down the cost of media rather quickly. This is especially important for those of us looking forward to HD-DVD burners. Blu-ray is expensive because it is complicated, but the complicated nature doesn't really give it any advantages - since a full 1080p movie fits on an HD-DVD just fine, the capacity advantage is usually wasted.
3) Availability of rental titles - as far as I know, blockbuster and netflix both offer HD-DVD titles through their subscription service, but not Blu-Ray. This is really important to people like me. I have a pretty extensive DVD collection, but I'm sure as hell not going to re-buy all my favorite movies in a new format, especially if I don't know if the format will still be around in a few years. As long as there is a format war going on, rental/subscription availability is going to be key to a format's success, especially when the cost of the players gets within mass market range (~$100).
Dont know about blockbuster online, but netflix does offer some movies in blu-ray.