breaking: North Korea just artillery shelled a South Korean island

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PieIsAwesome

Diamond Member
Feb 11, 2007
4,054
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0
Seoul was the capital prior to the War, a major seaport, and was established Two Thousand Years ago as the capital. Nice of you to understand that. Shows your education.

And the city was almost entirely destroyed during the Korean war. They could have chosen to rebuild their capital somewhere else, but they let their romanticization of the city get in the way of logic.
 
Feb 19, 2001
20,158
20
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When you fly into Seoul the international airport is located in Incheon. So most would consider Incheon as being part of Seoul.

It's just like flying into Washington DC, Dulles is freaking far away. SFO serves San Francisco but is in a totally different county and city. Different area code too. Shrug.

Incheon is a key naval port for South Korea, but given how many Asian cities are giant millions of people, you consider it one large area. Just like San Jose and San Francisco may be an hour apart, but it's connected by a continuous strip of population. Hence we call it the Bay Area. If we were in range of Chinese ICBMs, we wouldn't say that only SF is in danger. The whole fucking Bay Area is in danger.

I think there's a definition for this but it's like Metropolitan Statistical Area or something like that when you include everyone. Just like you could say NYC is 8 million people, or you could say that whole NYC region is 30 million people. It's a tough definition.
 

DucatiMonster696

Diamond Member
Aug 13, 2009
4,269
1
71
The Vice Guide to North Korea - A series of videos from a documentary that takes a look into North Korea. This is look into the surreal world of North Korea. God only knows what happens to these people when there aren't any tourists to impress.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6ixGYzbLz0&feature=related

Yeah this is a country that should have nukes.


Edit: If you get to the part where the North Koreans are making adamant statements about re-uniting Korea you see what the end goal is for the leadership. The saddest part though of this video is the kids in the school designed for their "best and brightest".
 
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bfdd

Lifer
Feb 3, 2007
13,312
1
0
still, it's only about an hour away.

Yeah, but it's not Seoul. Just like Redondo Beach isn't Los Angeles, but people from Redondo Beach will occasionally say they're from LA just to make it easy to people who might not know where or what Redondo Beach is.
 

sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,493
3,159
136
If there is war it will probably be a nuke war. NK is just itching to use their nukes.
THen add in China, the US, and there we are. Nothing will ever be the same again.
911 will look like a kiddie fight in a sand box. 30,000 US troops stationed in SK vaporized.
I think it will be called WWIII.
 

DucatiMonster696

Diamond Member
Aug 13, 2009
4,269
1
71
If there is war it will probably be a nuke war. NK is just itching to use their nukes.
THen add in China, the US, and there we are. Nothing will ever be the same again.
911 will look like a kiddie fight in a sand box. 30,000 US troops stationed in SK vaporized.
I think it will be called WWIII.

China isn't going to side with North Korea or attack the US if the North uses nukes or attacks the South. Also this won't be a world war either.
 

ZzZGuy

Golden Member
Nov 15, 2006
1,855
0
0
Every time someone talks about NK using nukes I go "uggggggggg".

They tested two duds along with their inability to fit said duds on anything other then flatbeds.


I'd only worry about NK in two cases at this point.
A- SK does nothing to counter NK aggression while NK keep escalating until they fell they can get away with shelling Seoul (which is not the case).
B- NK feels that no matter what they do they are going to lose their control over the country (going out in a blaze of glory).

NK's one and only deterrent against being wiped out is the damage they could do should they start a war. Once that war is started there is nothing holding back SK/USA from destroying them.

Sure China is backing them up, but with most all of the rest of the world behind SK, should China fight with all it's power to save NK then their economy will collapse with the rest of the world isolating them and China goes into civil war with Taiwan's government likely coming back to take control of China. Then there is "what's in it for China?", if SK does take over NK then SK will be crippled trying to modernize NK and there will be a massive push to get rid of all US military presence.

Barring a total collapse in Command & Control leading NK to think they are actually being invaded, as long as they don't feel they are toast then the actions they take will simply be what they feel they can get away with. I'm also of the mindset that the next leader of NK will change their stance and not be so downright hostile, wanting wanting the benefits trade with SK/China will bring.
 

PeshakJang

Platinum Member
Mar 17, 2010
2,276
0
0
PJ, so we appease them the first time now they have a nuke in Cleaveland as well. What then? Keep appeasing them until they have nukes everywhere and it's to late they win? The end game here is a conflict, there is no avoiding it. We could have earlier worked towards solving this problem, but we're to fucking stupid to set aside our differences and actually work with the Chinese. If we could we might actually have made some progress on NK. We didn't so we are where we are and it has been 50+ years of the same shit. N.Korea commits an act of war, S.Korea pussies it up because of Seoul and they appease the dictator who is holding their balls. Now he holds more than just their balls and people still want to appease. Eventually he'll be able to destroy all of S.Korea and then what? We just appease still until he can take out Japan as well?

This will come to a conflict and we can either do it now or wait until they can do more damage. THe longer we wait the worse it is. North Korea is a cancer, the longer it goes untreated the more damage it's going to cause to the region.

Ok, you don't give them the money, Chicago is obliterated. Bombs also go off in several other places, killing a total of 50,000,000 people. (Would be about the same percentage of potential losses compared to South Korea).

You are saying this is the best course of action? Yes or no.
 

irishScott

Lifer
Oct 10, 2006
21,568
3
0
Ok, you don't give them the money, Chicago is obliterated. Bombs also go off in several other places, killing a total of 50,000,000 people. (Would be about the same percentage of potential losses compared to South Korea).

You are saying this is the best course of action? Yes or no.

lol. It would be bad, but none of that would happen should we go to war with NK.
 

PeshakJang

Platinum Member
Mar 17, 2010
2,276
0
0
lol. It would be bad, but none of that would happen should we go to war with NK.

It is an almost absolute certainty that Seoul would be shelled mercilessly within moments of a full-scale conflict breaking out. With over 10 million in the greater Seoul capital area, it would be a slaughter of historic proportions.

This isn't 10 or 20 cannons that would drop an occasional shell on a moderately populated city, it's over 10,000 (on the low end estimate) cannons raining explosives on one of the most densely populated areas on Earth.

My analogy would be pretty accurate if you go on percentage of population. Strictly number wise, it would be more akin to New York City being completely flattened, with all 9 million people in it.

That's just the initial attack... this is all before the actual fighting even starts. 1.2 million man Army the north has. A lot more people would die very quickly.

Does anybody seriously think that is a good trade off just so the threat goes away?
 

DucatiMonster696

Diamond Member
Aug 13, 2009
4,269
1
71
It is an almost absolute certainty that Seoul would be shelled mercilessly within moments of a full-scale conflict breaking out. With over 10 million in the greater Seoul capital area, it would be a slaughter of historic proportions.

This isn't 10 or 20 cannons that would drop an occasional shell on a moderately populated city, it's over 10,000 (on the low end estimate) cannons raining explosives on one of the most densely populated areas on Earth.

My analogy would be pretty accurate if you go on percentage of population. Strictly number wise, it would be more akin to New York City being completely flattened, with all 9 million people in it.

That's just the initial attack... this is all before the actual fighting even starts. 1.2 million man Army the north has. A lot more people would die very quickly.

Does anybody seriously think that is a good trade off just so the threat goes away?

The threat of North Korea isn't going away and is only growing stronger and bolder with each year. The North Koreans themselves have visions of eventually taking over South Korea. That is the goal they've been brainwashed to believe in as nation. Eventually they'll have the means and capability to accomplish that goal and then carnage of that war will pale in comparison to what would happen if we were to topple North Korea in short foreseeable future before they've solidified and mastered their nuclear weapons capabilities.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XsWb_ObOpM&feature=related
 

Nebor

Lifer
Jun 24, 2003
29,582
12
76
It is an almost absolute certainty that Seoul would be shelled mercilessly within moments of a full-scale conflict breaking out. With over 10 million in the greater Seoul capital area, it would be a slaughter of historic proportions.

Every artillery piece in NK has a GMLRS with it's name\coordinates on it. If we struck first, virtually none of the guns would get a single shot off. If they struck first, we could retaliate and destroy their artillery pieces before they were able to fire 2 more rounds. And all of our launchers are remote controlled and moved regularly.

NK does not want to enter into a conventional war with the US. We've spent the last 50 years spending an enormous amount of our GDP preparing for a conventional war that never came. We would decimate NK militarily.
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
42,591
5
0
Every artillery piece in NK has a GMLRS with it's name\coordinates on it. If we struck first, virtually none of the guns would get a single shot off. If they struck first, we could retaliate and destroy their artillery pieces before they were able to fire 2 more rounds. And all of our launchers are remote controlled and moved regularly.

NK does not want to enter into a conventional war with the US. We've spent the last 50 years spending an enormous amount of our GDP preparing for a conventional war that never came. We would decimate NK militarily.

The US are not going to strike first.
And there is still the pieces that are on rails and on tracks in caves. Anything that is partially mobile is not guarenteed be taken out by artillery fire.

2 rounds from 10K pieces will destroy a lot of Seoul. And there still will be a good 2-3K that would not be taken out by counter battery fies initially. So that 20% is stil able to throw more ordnance at night when it is harder to detect and destroy. Those items will be in the caves and moving around to different openings to fire from.

No one argues that we would win against NK itself. It is the cost to SK that must be considered and SK would have to be the one to authorize the first strike attack.

Most also feel that NK is not crazy enough to launch a first strike to become all out war. They want to keep pushing to move the tolerance line back and ensure that they get what the current prize of the day is.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,864
49,562
136
Every artillery piece in NK has a GMLRS with it's name\coordinates on it. If we struck first, virtually none of the guns would get a single shot off. If they struck first, we could retaliate and destroy their artillery pieces before they were able to fire 2 more rounds. And all of our launchers are remote controlled and moved regularly.

NK does not want to enter into a conventional war with the US. We've spent the last 50 years spending an enormous amount of our GDP preparing for a conventional war that never came. We would decimate NK militarily.

What information are you basing this on? I am unaware of any credible source that believes anything close to that. The sheer numbers of MLRS launchers needed to accomplish what you're talking about without even taking into account our MLRS' inability to penetrate the heavy rock a lot of those pieces are under makes your idea extremely unlikely.
 

PeshakJang

Platinum Member
Mar 17, 2010
2,276
0
0
What information are you basing this on? I am unaware of any credible source that believes anything close to that. The sheer numbers of MLRS launchers needed to accomplish what you're talking about without even taking into account our MLRS' inability to penetrate the heavy rock a lot of those pieces are under makes your idea extremely unlikely.

This will probably never happen again, so mark your calenders, but I agree with eskimospy. I haven't been stationed in Korea, so I have no first hand knowledge, but the sheer numbers involved make it mathematically impossible for that scenario to be true. And as pointed out, most pieces are believed to be fortified in mountain redoubts, on tracks, mobile, etc., making them very difficult to accurately strike.

Plus, that doesn't even get into airspace deconfliction for 10,000+ separate projectiles... and the time it would take from the first report of incoming to get retaliation cleared through the White House... get the systems manned, activated, and fired, you are talking many minutes... bottom line it is simply impossible to avoid massive destruction of Seoul.
 

PeshakJang

Platinum Member
Mar 17, 2010
2,276
0
0
The threat of North Korea isn't going away and is only growing stronger and bolder with each year. The North Koreans themselves have visions of eventually taking over South Korea. That is the goal they've been brainwashed to believe in as nation. Eventually they'll have the means and capability to accomplish that goal and then carnage of that war will pale in comparison to what would happen if we were to topple North Korea in short foreseeable future before they've solidified and mastered their nuclear weapons capabilities.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XsWb_ObOpM&feature=related

You're just saying what we all know and acknowledge, but you are ignoring the fact that we'd be sacrificing possibly millions and millions of people, to make the problem go away.

North Korea is a threat because they could kill millions of South Koreans... so in order to end this threat, we kill millions of South Koreans... right?

South Korea is in basically a lose-lose situation, and the only hope is that some part of the equation changes, giving us more options than we have now.
 

DrPizza

Administrator Elite Member Goat Whisperer
Mar 5, 2001
49,606
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Every artillery piece in NK has a GMLRS with it's name\coordinates on it. If we struck first, virtually none of the guns would get a single shot off. If they struck first, we could retaliate and destroy their artillery pieces before they were able to fire 2 more rounds. And all of our launchers are remote controlled and moved regularly.

NK does not want to enter into a conventional war with the US. We've spent the last 50 years spending an enormous amount of our GDP preparing for a conventional war that never came. We would decimate NK militarily.

What's funny is that I think you're actually serious about believing this. You're saying that we have far far better intelligence on NK's capabilities than we had on Iraq's?? We "thought" Iraq had all sorts of weapons that it turned out they didn't. Yet, you think we know what every weapon is and exactly where it's located in NK? :roll:
 

Nebor

Lifer
Jun 24, 2003
29,582
12
76
What information are you basing this on? I am unaware of any credible source that believes anything close to that. The sheer numbers of MLRS launchers needed to accomplish what you're talking about without even taking into account our MLRS' inability to penetrate the heavy rock a lot of those pieces are under makes your idea extremely unlikely.

There is an enormous amount of armor & ordnance emplaced in South Korea. You're assuming that NK would purposely target Seoul of spite or to cause economic damage, rather than attempt to disable actual military targets.
 

PeshakJang

Platinum Member
Mar 17, 2010
2,276
0
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There is an enormous amount of armor & ordnance emplaced in South Korea. You're assuming that NK would purposely target Seoul of spite or to cause economic damage, rather than attempt to disable actual military targets.

What would be the rational thing to do? Then, what would be the NK thing to do?
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
What's funny is that I think you're actually serious about believing this. You're saying that we have far far better intelligence on NK's capabilities than we had on Iraq's?? We "thought" Iraq had all sorts of weapons that it turned out they didn't. Yet, you think we know what every weapon is and exactly where it's located in NK? :roll:

Not to agree with Nebor, at all, but we had good intelligence wrt Iraq- the Bushistas simply chose to embellish it, fill in the gaps for their own purposes. They exploited fear and bloodlust, represented suspicion as fact to justify war.

The area in question is disputed territory, occupied by the S Koreans, and their northern cousins are quick to take offense, justifiable or not. They viewed S Korean artillery test firing in the area as provocation enough to escalate, if only a little. I don't agree with them, at all.

There is little doubt that the ROK would persevere in an all out attack from the north, but not without horrendous loss of life.
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,329
126
Sucks man, but you can't let assholes continually be assholes. Would you let your neighbor kill your dog every year and demand you pay him to not shoot you or would do something about it even if he had the bigger gun? Sometimes bad shit has to happen for good shit to happen. Getting rid of North Korea is a good thing and the longer we wait the harder it will be.


again when I say WE, I mean the world as a whole.

As long as its not "WE" that are in the cross-hairs eh?
 

PieIsAwesome

Diamond Member
Feb 11, 2007
4,054
1
0
Every time someone talks about NK using nukes I go "uggggggggg".

They tested two duds along with their inability to fit said duds on anything other then flatbeds.


I'd only worry about NK in two cases at this point.
A- SK does nothing to counter NK aggression while NK keep escalating until they fell they can get away with shelling Seoul (which is not the case).
B- NK feels that no matter what they do they are going to lose their control over the country (going out in a blaze of glory).

NK's one and only deterrent against being wiped out is the damage they could do should they start a war. Once that war is started there is nothing holding back SK/USA from destroying them.

Sure China is backing them up, but with most all of the rest of the world behind SK, should China fight with all it's power to save NK then their economy will collapse with the rest of the world isolating them and China goes into civil war with Taiwan's government likely coming back to take control of China. Then there is "what's in it for China?", if SK does take over NK then SK will be crippled trying to modernize NK and there will be a massive push to get rid of all US military presence.

Barring a total collapse in Command & Control leading NK to think they are actually being invaded, as long as they don't feel they are toast then the actions they take will simply be what they feel they can get away with. I'm also of the mindset that the next leader of NK will change their stance and not be so downright hostile, wanting wanting the benefits trade with SK/China will bring.

Yeah, those duds were probably the size of a room. They still have quite a way to go before they can threaten SK with nukes, but they will get there eventually and then SK will be screwed.
 

PieIsAwesome

Diamond Member
Feb 11, 2007
4,054
1
0
It is an almost absolute certainty that Seoul would be shelled mercilessly within moments of a full-scale conflict breaking out. With over 10 million in the greater Seoul capital area, it would be a slaughter of historic proportions.

This isn't 10 or 20 cannons that would drop an occasional shell on a moderately populated city, it's over 10,000 (on the low end estimate) cannons raining explosives on one of the most densely populated areas on Earth.

My analogy would be pretty accurate if you go on percentage of population. Strictly number wise, it would be more akin to New York City being completely flattened, with all 9 million people in it.

That's just the initial attack... this is all before the actual fighting even starts. 1.2 million man Army the north has. A lot more people would die very quickly.

Does anybody seriously think that is a good trade off just so the threat goes away?

Seoul is only in range of a few of NK's artillery, and there are only about a dozen hardened shelters close enough to the border for these batteries to fire from in order to hit Seoul. There is a link to a thread on a another forum where this was thoroughly researched that has been posted a million times.

There are, however, several cities closer to the border than Seoul, which are in range of the artillery. There is also the threat of NK using medium range missiles with chemical or biological warheads that could definitely reach Seoul. The effectiveness of these weapons isn't guaranteed, though.
 
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