Brexit Deal Voted down in "Historic Defeat" according to BBC News site (Brexit still happening but PM May is in trouble)

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Nov 25, 2013
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Today's Telegraph headline: "Cabinet ministers warn Theresa May she will face mass resignations unless she allows MPs to stop no-deal Brexit"

What's a day in the life of Brexit without a bit of derpy counterweight though:

"Corbyn could face string of resignations if he backs 'people's vote' "

The shits are more afraid of losing their job than keeping the country together and functional. I think the party would be better off without them.

Seems I also read, though, that the vast majority of the party wants another vote and believe the party should back it and back staying in the EU. Bet that makes Corbyn think bad thoughts.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...believe-corbyn-should-back-second-brexit-vote
 

mikeymikec

Lifer
May 19, 2011
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To some extent I do feel a smidgen sorry for them, because in the most ideal situation they would go back and explain to their constituency and explain why this is happening, but the people they're having to explain it to are the kind of people I've mentioned before who think "we voted Brexit, why haven't you done it yet" despite the multitude of opportunities they've had for over 2 years to get a clue.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
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Brexit No Deal : British Economy is gonna tank. Its gonna hurt non educated middle class the most. Consequence : Shift in public opinion to the right... we gon need them scape goats and external foes to blame for this shit... Right? I predict Bannon will take up residence in London where he and Farage will cofundle eachothers balls to the tune of an evergrowing neonazi underground waiting to reach critical mass....
 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
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May didn't want to leave, but at least she had the balls to be in charge of a situation that was doomed from the beginning. If she had succeeded, it would have been a enormous success, and where we stand now can only be blamed on the parliament.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
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May didn't want to leave, but at least she had the balls to be in charge of a situation that was doomed from the beginning. If she had succeeded, it would have been a enormous success, and where we stand now can only be blamed on the parliament.

Please. Blame the voters. Brexit is muy stupido.
 

mikeymikec

Lifer
May 19, 2011
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May didn't want to leave, but at least she had the balls to be in charge of a situation that was doomed from the beginning.

That's not how I see it. As many politicians do, she had a lust for power and the opportunity presented itself.

If she had succeeded, it would have been a enormous success, and where we stand now can only be blamed on the parliament.

Uh, what? Sorry dude, have you even remotely been paying attention to the history of Brexit?
 

WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
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On Radio 4 David Blunkett was talking about no-deal could be legislated against so that revoking Article 50 becomes the default or asking the EU for a delay on Article 50.
Good luck on getting Parliament or the EU to agree to that!
 

Stokely

Golden Member
Jun 5, 2017
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Hey, there's plenty of time to work on that! There's an opening next week for debate!

Gee, if you were worried about no-deal brexit, they might have made sure that wasn't the default in the first place. "What's our fallback option" is part of all our projects, and we are just a podunk IT department....
 
Nov 25, 2013
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Good luck on getting Parliament or the EU to agree to that!

Well, from the EU side of things:

"Germany and France have signalled their willingness to delay Brexit as Michel Barnier offered to renegotiate with Theresa May in the event that she is able to build a majority with Labour in favour of a closer relationship with the EU.

EU ambassadors also discussed the issue for the first time at a meeting in Brussels on Tuesday, as the member states attempted to decide on their terms for extending the negotiating time beyond 29 March."

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...and-france-signal-willingness-to-delay-brexit
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,298
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The shits are more afraid of losing their job than keeping the country together and functional. I think the party would be better off without them.

Seems I also read, though, that the vast majority of the party wants another vote and believe the party should back it and back staying in the EU. Bet that makes Corbyn think bad thoughts.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...believe-corbyn-should-back-second-brexit-vote


The majority of party members, certainly. Unfortunately it doesn't seem to be the case for the majority of Labour voters. The reverse may in fact be the case. And even if it's not a majority of Labour voters in total across the country who support leave, because of the way the voting system works and the hugely uneven way those voters are distributed, the effect on Labour of losing leaver votes could be horrifically disproportionate. And the might not go to the Tories, they might end up somewhere worse.

Also last polls I saw said a clear majority of Tory members actively want a no-deal exit.

I think we're screwed.

And I don't think this just happened overnight, I think it represents massive problems that have been silently stewing for a very long time. All the same though, it didn't have to come to a crisis like this, that took a ridiculously unlucky combination of events, in my opinion.
 
Nov 25, 2013
32,083
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The majority of party members, certainly. Unfortunately it doesn't seem to be the case for the majority of Labour voters. The reverse may in fact be the case. And even if it's not a majority of Labour voters in total across the country who support leave, because of the way the voting system works and the hugely uneven way those voters are distributed, the effect on Labour of losing leaver votes could be horrifically disproportionate. And the might not go to the Tories, they might end up somewhere worse.

Also last polls I saw said a clear majority of Tory members actively want a no-deal exit.

I think we're screwed.

And I don't think this just happened overnight, I think it represents massive problems that have been silently stewing for a very long time. All the same though, it didn't have to come to a crisis like this, that took a ridiculously unlucky combination of events, in my opinion.


Re the bolding

(from the same article)

"There was, he noted, some difference between the views of Labour voters and members. While a parallel poll of 1,675 voters found 73% of the party’s supporters believed the Brexit decision was a mistake, for members that rises to 89%."

So the poll indicates it's a hefty majority with both groups.
 

WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
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Well, from the EU side of things:

"Germany and France have signalled their willingness to delay Brexit as Michel Barnier offered to renegotiate with Theresa May in the event that she is able to build a majority with Labour in favour of a closer relationship with the EU.

EU ambassadors also discussed the issue for the first time at a meeting in Brussels on Tuesday, as the member states attempted to decide on their terms for extending the negotiating time beyond 29 March."

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...and-france-signal-willingness-to-delay-brexit
Yeah but thats different to just delaying it everytime we cant agree!
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
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Re the bolding

(from the same article)

"There was, he noted, some difference between the views of Labour voters and members. While a parallel poll of 1,675 voters found 73% of the party’s supporters believed the Brexit decision was a mistake, for members that rises to 89%."

So the poll indicates it's a hefty majority with both groups.

I guess that's a recent poll - I hope it's accurate. Other polls previously have found that switching to 'remain' would cost Labour a significant number of seats.

Even that poll leaves 27% - the distribution of that proportion might be critically important. Though it doesn't say whether that remainder actively _want_ Brexit. I guess you could not think it was a mistake and still not be strongly pro-leave.

It would make it all a lot easier if that problem was of a manageable size. I personally think a second vote is tricky to justify in terms of fairness, even though I'd like it to happen. The fewer people it has to be justified to the better.
 

WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
30,989
8,701
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I don't have speakers connected. Does it play the music from 'Countdown'?
That would be the best thing ever! We lock the doors to Parliament with them all in there and play the countdown music at them constantly until they all agree on a sensible deal we can take to the EU!
 

Stokely

Golden Member
Jun 5, 2017
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That doesn't jive with an analyst that was on NPR yesterday....he said that a second vote would right now (probably) narrowly pass. Meaning, it's a tossup. He went into the reasons for it, but basically...it's a mess.

Thinking selfishly as a non-Brit, I wonder what a hard Brexit would do the world economy, at least in the short term....
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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I guess that's a recent poll - I hope it's accurate. Other polls previously have found that switching to 'remain' would cost Labour a significant number of seats.

Even that poll leaves 27% - the distribution of that proportion might be critically important. Though it doesn't say whether that remainder actively _want_ Brexit. I guess you could not think it was a mistake and still not be strongly pro-leave.

It would make it all a lot easier if that problem was of a manageable size. I personally think a second vote is tricky to justify in terms of fairness, even though I'd like it to happen. The fewer people it has to be justified to the better.

I don't really get the 'fairness' argument. The UK voted to leave the EU in 2016. In the two years since the populace has gotten new information that shows leaving is a really bad idea. On what sane planet do people ignore that information and undertake an enormously harmful policy in order to abide by a vote they don't even support anymore?
 
Reactions: darkswordsman17

WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
30,989
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I personally think a second vote is tricky to justify in terms of fairness, even though I'd like it to happen. The fewer people it has to be justified to the better.

I don't have a problem with a second vote on reasons of fairness. Its not like you are getting a bunch of different people in to vote! It'll either be people who changed their mind or people who didn't vote the first time both of which are good reasons to listen to them. Its not antidemocratic to ask the same question a few times.
 
Reactions: darkswordsman17

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,298
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I don't really get the 'fairness' argument. The UK voted to leave the EU in 2016. In the two years since the populace has gotten new information that shows leaving is a really bad idea. On what sane planet do people ignore that information and undertake an enormously harmful policy in order to abide by a vote they don't even support anymore?


Well, I doubt either of us is going to change our minds. I'm really a bit divided myself. I mostly just wish one could go back in time and lock Cameron in a box or something and stop him offering such a stupid referendum in the first place. Or better yet, that there was some sort of pan-European leftist movement for European unity but against the way it's currently being run.

But as I see it there are two opposing ways of looking at it. The first supports your point.

One is that the question wasn't properly asked in the first place, people didn't have the information to know what they were voting for. Or, when leavers say they did know what they were voting for ('no deal') and that you are being a patronising middle-class elitist bastard to suggest otherwise, I would say that's fine but they didn't tell the rest of us that at the time. How are we supposed to know how to interpret their vote when the question was badly framed?

But the other argument is that we are asking leavers to win two votes to get their way, while remainers only have to win once. If the new result is a very close vote for remain, leavers could declare they want 'best of three'.

The crucial point is nobody believes if the first vote had been 52-48 for remain that we would now be voting again.
Ultimately if that happens, if it's a very narrow vote for remain, then a very large number of people are going to feel cheated and feel that they are in the EU against their will. I can see that causing _enormous_ problems in the future, especially given that the EU is going to be facing massive problems anyway. There will be even greater reluctance to obey EU rules, and probably an increase in xenophobia and votes for UKIP (which is now a full-on far-right party, in my opinion).

I've even heard some EU people quoted as wondering whether such a divided and unhappy UK might be a liability in trying to deal with the other issues the EU now faces.


Edit - if the poll results show a decent majority for remain in a new vote, that really reduces the scale of the problem. If the die-hards are all Tories anyway, then I could live with that.
 
Last edited:

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,827
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Well, I doubt either of us is going to change our minds. I'm really a bit divided myself. I mostly just wish one could go back in time and lock Cameron in a box or something and stop him offering such a stupid referendum in the first place. Or better yet, that there was some sort of pan-European leftist movement for European unity but against the way it's currently being run.

But as I see it there are two opposing ways of looking at it. The first supports your point.

One is that the question wasn't properly asked in the first place, people didn't have the information to know what they were voting for. Or, when leavers say they did know what they were voting for ('no deal') and that you are being a patronising middle-class elitist bastard to suggest otherwise, I would say that's fine but they didn't tell the rest of us that at the time. How are we supposed to know how to interpret their vote when the question was badly framed?

But the other argument is that we are asking leavers to win two votes to get their way, while remainers only have to win once. If the new result is a very close vote for remain, leavers could declare they want 'best of three'.

The crucial point is nobody believes if the first vote had been 52-48 for remain that we would now be voting again.
Ultimately if that happens, if it's a very narrow vote for remain, then a very large number of people are going to feel cheated and feel that they are in the EU against their will. I can see that causing _enormous_ problems in the future, especially given that the EU is going to be facing massive problems anyway. There will be even greater reluctance to obey EU rules, and probably an increase in xenophobia and votes for UKIP (which is now a full-on far-right party, in my opinion).

I've even heard some EU people quoted as wondering whether such a divided and unhappy UK might be a liability in trying to deal with the other issues the EU now faces.

I don’t know about that. I think Scotland is an instructive counterexample. Scotland narrowly voted to remain in the UK but now circumstances have changed. They may very well vote again on the question and that seems perfectly reasonable to me.

Related to the UK and the EU I agree you probably wouldn’t be voting again had you chosen to remain but let’s be honest as to why - it’s because leaving will be objectively massively harmful to the UK. Imagine a different timeline where after voting to remain the EU enacted a whole bunch of policies that were awful for the UK. Why wouldn’t you reconsider and vote again?

I think if the UK decides to shoot itself in the dick based on fear of a future far right you are doing yourselves and your children a grave disservice. The people who wanted to leave were mostly old anyway if I remember, meaning they were voting your futures away, not theirs.
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,298
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I don’t know about that. I think Scotland is an instructive counterexample. Scotland narrowly voted to remain in the UK but now circumstances have changed. They may very well vote again on the question and that seems perfectly reasonable to me.

Related to the UK and the EU I agree you probably wouldn’t be voting again had you chosen to remain but let’s be honest as to why - it’s because leaving will be objectively massively harmful to the UK. Imagine a different timeline where after voting to remain the EU enacted a whole bunch of policies that were awful for the UK. Why wouldn’t you reconsider and vote again?

I think if the UK decides to shoot itself in the dick based on fear of a future far right you are doing yourselves and your children a grave disservice. The people who wanted to leave were mostly old anyway if I remember, meaning they were voting your futures away, not theirs.


Well I do think a second-vote is the least-awful option. Especially compared with no-deal Brexit - which must surely cause huge economic damage. But that doesn't stop me feeling deeply pessimistic about what is going to happen even if we manage to get a re-vote (wouldn't surprise me if there were attempts to prevent people voting). And insisting that leaving will be objectively harmful doesn't address head-on the 'democracy and fairness' objection.

It definitely seems to be a generational thing. I can tell which way someone is going to lean, mostly, when I hear them on radio phone-ins, just by judging their age as soon as they start speaking. And maybe my own less-than-wholehearted support for the EU is because I'm GenX. Millennials are pro-, baby-boomers anti-, I'm a bit ambivalent because I'm in between the two. Corbyn, however, is older than me.

I was listening to a discussion about the origins of neo-liberalism the other day, and it was very clear that the leading figures of that movement were very divided about the EU - some saw it as a dangerous space for planning and redistribution and attempts to regulate the market, others saw it as a great chance to remove power from national governments and to move the levers of power further away from the general populace, so as to make a world safer for capitalism and free markets. I think it has retained that double-facing character for its whole existence. Be better to stay in and try and change it, though, I think.
 
Reactions: fskimospy
Nov 25, 2013
32,083
11,718
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I don't really get the 'fairness' argument. The UK voted to leave the EU in 2016. In the two years since the populace has gotten new information that shows leaving is a really bad idea. On what sane planet do people ignore that information and undertake an enormously harmful policy in order to abide by a vote they don't even support anymore?

It's the same planet where Donald Trump manages to maintain a pretty steady 40% support and a Saudi prince has a journalist murdered in the most horrid way and the world has pretty much simply moved on. The same world that Putin is doing his damnedest to disrupt. The same world where a Nobel peace prize winner seems to be ok with the genocidal practices of her govt. against an ethnic/religious minority.

In other words, sanity really has nothing to do with it.
 
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