Brian Krzanich just killed the PC

[Cogman]

No, today's personal computer is still a PC if you do anything more than content consumption. I have hated android from the moment I unboxed a POS android Acer tablet, and have never changed my mind one bit.

Office compatibility is still needed for a lot of on-line functions. For instance, I recently filled out an online job application, about 5 pages worth, plus you had to attach a resume and references in Word format. It was a lengthy and painful process on my fast desktop with a full keyboard, mouse and large monitor. I probably would go live in a box somewhere before trying to do that on a tablet or smartphone. And as for the attachments, yea, maybe some bastardized android app (open office or libra office or whatever) would have worked, but for something important like this, does one really want to take the chance? And I cant even imagine doing things like online banking an bill paying on a smart phone. I am sure you can do it, but it is just so much easier on a PC, even a laptop.

Although PCs with Windows 10 and MS's insistence on making you go to the Windows store and get an "app" just like you have to do on android is becoming almost as bad. Want to read a book on you Win 10 tablet? Dont go to the B and N and download Nook. No please go to the Windows store. Yes the app is free, but maybe you will buy something else while you are there.

I'll be honest, I don't think that the windows store is necessarily a bad idea, it just came too late and wasn't implemented real great.

The concept of forcing all apps to go through a store is a good one because it can prevent and minimize rouge apps and viruses.

The problem is they had silly restrictions on store apps. Things like "must be written in C# or Js" and "has to be a full screen app". Those things just don't fly too well. I get why they did it (They wanted Windows RS to be a thing), but they were just too late to market. Further, they have done a pretty poor job of cultivating the app store in general.

A+ idea, D- execution.

 

[Ajay]

That trend isn't something that's overcome. I bet you if Apple/Google gets caught in the next trend, they'll fail too. In the process of trying so hard to succeed at one category, it basically closes the door to another. That's why companies fail and get bankrupt. Only thing you can do is to survive.

Very innovative companies can survive, even if they go through troughs. With Intel and Apple, we'll just have to wait and see.

I think Intel had great management through Andy Grove - but all these CEOs were there at the start of Intel and were exceptionally bright engineers as well. Intel is being challenged because:

1) There is finally an ISA that better meets the needs of a particular market (basically, embedded device market - which is pretty much what smart phones are - they are just wrapped in a pretty UI that people interact with).

2) Samsung and TSMC are a bigger threat to Intel than they used to be, in part due to item 1 and due to difficulties in shrinking process nodes slowing progress for everyone, but affecting Intel the worst.

3) Stagnation in the PC market reducing the need for Intel's former profit flagships - the desktop CPU (again, due in part the item 1). Intel is making some of this up due to the growth of server sales (driven, in large part, due to data demands from apps running on new client devices - see item 1 again!).

 

[Phynaz]

No, today's personal computer is still a PC if you do anything more than content consumption.

I manage a product development team with an iPad Air. It's about the mobility and the apps. You can run a small business on an iPad.

Form matters to most of the public. Desktops are chained to the ground.

 

[Madpacket]

Blockchains don't provide security. A blockchain computational cluster might (and that is a big might) give you the ability to entrust remote entities with your number crunching and give you a significant boost in computational power.

That does not mean that the algorithm you implement will suddenly be valid, bug free, and secure. Security vulnerabilities are far more often due to logic flaws rather than encryption/trust flaws.

The problem with IoT is that it exposes devices to the general internet public that have never been exposed to the general internet public. Further, these are devices that have traditionally had their software written once and then done. Companies don't generally do firmware updates for your thermostat, fire alarm, smoke detector, or light bulb.

Blockchains don't solve that problem, they only (maybe) provide trusted computational power. Even then, there are simply better optional available today. Why give your computational infrastructure over to a blockchain with undefined response characteristics, availability, and maintenance when today computational power is so incredibly cheap. You would only want to use blockchains for server number crunching, and servers are dirt cheap nowadays. Blockchains are useless for user devices, the responsiveness problem is a real thing and you can have every user interaction taking +100ms to return. You certainly could not write a game using blockchains for computation. Or even something like decrypting streaming video would be impractical with blockchains.

Please read up Blockchain technologies. Of course they increase security.

Check out Slock.it's Ethereum DAO's first proposal. It'll take a lot your concerns away. Contracts are written and parameters defined on how Dapps will operate within the confines of the DAO. Consensous based voting will determine which applications end up being accepted. As for your speed concern this will be solved via sharding once proof of stake is implemented but it's already fast enough for unlocking your front door.


Added some links for reference:

https://blog.slock.it/our-proposal-...the-ethereum-computer-493340aa1fe6#.iqgpjoctk

https://daohub.org/index.html

Ethereum's still in beta! This is so much better than what the Bitcoin Blockchain offers. IBM, Microsoft, Philips and other companies are getting behind this tech. If Intel thinks they can continue on with the model they've laid out they're in for a nasty surprise.

 

[Ranulf]

I'll be honest, I don't think that the windows store is necessarily a bad idea, it just came too late and wasn't implemented real great.

The concept of forcing all apps to go through a store is a good one because it can prevent and minimize rouge apps and viruses.

The problem is they had silly restrictions on store apps. Things like "must be written in C# or Js" and "has to be a full screen app". Those things just don't fly too well. I get why they did it (They wanted Windows RS to be a thing), but they were just too late to market. Further, they have done a pretty poor job of cultivating the app store in general.

A+ idea, D- execution.

The problem with windows store is that it ultimately kills the whole point of a windows pc. Namely not being locked into an ecosystem. It will drive many to linux.

 

[frozentundra123456]

The problem with windows store is that it ultimately kills the whole point of a windows pc. Namely not being locked into an ecosystem. It will drive many to linux.

Exactly.

 

[Thala]

Things like "must be written in C# or Js" and "has to be a full screen app". Those things just don't fly too well.

The Windows 8 store never had such language restrictions from the start. You could always use C/C++.
My biggest issue with the store from technical point of view is, that the WinRT sandbox is too restricted. For example you are not allowed to use any cache management functions, which rules out applications needing any form of dynamic translation.
Also keep in mind, that the WinRT subsystem is just an addition to the classical Win32/.Net. It does not take anything away.

 

[beginner99]

I manage a product development team with an iPad Air. It's about the mobility and the apps. You can run a small business on an iPad.

Form matters to most of the public. Desktops are chained to the ground.

Managers aren't exactly known to be the group that requires much computing besides a calendar and presentation software. Tell the developers to work on an iPad. Or (web) designers. lol.

 

[RampantAndroid]

I manage a product development team with an iPad Air. It's about the mobility and the apps. You can run a small business on an iPad.

Form matters to most of the public. Desktops are chained to the ground.

The program/product managers I work with have laptops...they're nice for battery life, but forget doing development work unless you build on a server somewhere.

I have a dev box that's nearly 5 years old and I'm complaining almost daily to my manager begging for a new Xeon box (I have a i7 2600 non-k right now. Good grief it's slow.)

All that said...at home, unless I'm gaming, my macbook pro works just great. If I had a dock and KVM for it, I'd be able to replace my desktop for everything except gaming. When I work from home, I just use terminal services. PCs are dying for the vast majority of people, no matter how loudly people on here scream "NO THEY AREN'T".

 

[frozentundra123456]

I manage a product development team with an iPad Air. It's about the mobility and the apps. You can run a small business on an iPad.

Form matters to most of the public. Desktops are chained to the ground.

In my close circle of relatives, maybe six families that our family interacts with regularly, *all* of them have PCs, and use them regularly. Only one of them has an ipad, and that is because one of the family brings it home from work. Now granted, they are not buying PCs, because the ones they have are good enough for what they do, but they definitely still use PCs. Now, yes, ipad is a very nice device, but for anything that requires a lot of typing or accurate entry of data, even a laptop is much more functional than a tablet.

 

[Boze]

I manage a product development team with an iPad Air. It's about the mobility and the apps. You can run a small business on an iPad.

Form matters to most of the public. Desktops are chained to the ground.

So you basically press check boxes on a big To-Do list.

Yeah, I imagine I could give you a Windows 98 tablet PC and you could still do that.

 

[Arachnotronic]

So you basically press check boxes on a big To-Do list.

Yeah, I imagine I could give you a Windows 98 tablet PC and you could still do that.

A modern iPad can do so, so much more than that.

 

[Magic Carpet]

PCs are dying for the vast majority of people

I agree, all content consumption can easily be done on something more lightweight and transportable. Why they would need a desktop chained to the ground. Maybe they could use both, I would personally do that. But some people just opt for one single device instead, e.g. smartphone / tablet / laptop or a combination of these.

Albeit, I'd argue that PC itself is dying. At best, it is the dying form-factor known to most people as PC, not the very idea about personal computing device, and that can be anything; desktop/laptop/phone/tablet. Still personal, still computing. Whatever you name it.

EDIT: On the back of my VAIO laptop it says. "Personal Computer DC 19.5V". There you go. So yeah, it is Desktop PC that is getting increasingly unpopular, but far from dying; just moving to a niche market. The idea of DIY computer will remain for 'time will tell' how long. Not sure, how Google is going to be successful with its DIY phone idea. I will still consider it a PC, though.

 

[Arachnotronic]

EDIT: On the back of my VAIO laptop it says. "Personal Computer DC 19.5V". There you go. So yeah, it is Desktop PC that is getting increasingly unpopular, but far from dying; just moving to a niche market. The idea of DIY computer will remain for 'time will tell' how long. Not sure, how Google is going to be successful with its DIY phone idea. I will still consider it a PC, though.

Both notebook and desktop PC units are declining. Desktop units are coming down a bit faster than notebook units, but unlike in notebooks, desktop chip ASPs are going up. This means that some of the volume decline can be attributed to people just buying more expensive/powerful chips/systems and hanging on to them longer, rather than people fundamentally not using desktops.

Can't say the same for notebooks, though...

 

[Magic Carpet]

Arachnotronic,

Thanks for your post. I guess, your right. The funny thing is, if you add the kickstand, keyboard... it just becomes a laptop. Why not buy a laptop in the first place. Kinda bogs me down. Now, I do like smartphones, they are more compact, with the same functionality as tablets but a much better camera (which is essential these days, I agree). So why bother again. I thought Galaxy Note was great with that pencil. Anyway, I read a report somewhere that showed a significant decrease in sales for virtually every segment, including smartphones. Must be something to do with the economy.

 

[IntelUser2000]

Must be something to do with the economy.

Is the economy being brought down because companies are lacking ways to sell or are the companies suffering because economy is down?

It's really the same thing.

PC is not dead. People buying new PCs are decreasing. There's 7.4 billion people in the world. Let's say 5 billion are those that have purchasing power. Companies call that "TAM".

Real TAM IMO:
-Those that want to buy them
-Those that need to buy them
-Those that have enough money to buy them
-Those that can buy them(availability)

Cross off #4 for the more prosperous countries. Cross off #2 for those who already have a PC.

#1 is being replaced by Tablets/Smartphones. #3 is becoming less and less because of people having less discretionary income(which ironically is brought on by people spending too much to buff up the "economy").

 

[ShintaiDK]

I read a report somewhere that showed a significant decrease in sales for virtually every segment, including smartphones. Must be something to do with the economy.

US companies have lost profit the 3 last quarters and they lost revenue the 5 last quarters. This covers everything, not just single segments. And its by no mean just US companies that suffers this way.

Shipping companies are threatened on their existence, more shops close than open all over the world and you could keep on going.

 

[cytg111]

US companies have lost profit the 3 last quarters and they lost revenue the 5 last quarters. This covers everything, not just single segments. And its by no mean just US companies that suffers this way.

Shipping companies are threatened on their existence, more shops close than open all over the world and you could keep on going.

I am hearing it but not feeling it, localized here in europe we are on the verge of claiming the end of the finansial crisis, everything back to normal. Are you talking about the dreaded double dip or where we at?

 

[ShintaiDK]

I am hearing it but not feeling it, localized here in europe we are on the verge of claiming the end of the finansial crisis, everything back to normal. Are you talking about the dreaded double dip or where we at?

You can thank ECB and BOJ for that. Well, its like the pee in the pants but that's another case. And people moving down the wage ladder.

The ECB QE program alone is the size of the dutch GDP.

And when I borrow money I do it at an interest rate of -0.44%.

 

[Charmonium]

Internet of Things = Consensus of Parts

http://andromeda.wikia.com/wiki/Consensus_of_Parts

 

[cytg111]

You can thank ECB and BOJ for that. Well, its like the pee in the pants but that's another case. And people moving down the wage ladder.

The ECB QE program alone is the size of the dutch GDP.

And when I borrow money I do it at an interest rate of -0.44%.

Taking a stab here, you're working at a uni, denmark, a red one, say.. Roskilde? .
I hear what you are saying, and I agree for the most part, the very structure, foundation of this finansial governed so called democracy is not what it is cracked up to be. Yet, no better alternative present itself. I'd like to fire(with headshots) the whole CEO line of the banking sector and annex "Danskebank" as "Danske Statsbank", the very idea of having a finansial institution being "too big to fail" is just .. madness.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Taking a stab here, you're working at a uni, denmark, a red one, say.. Roskilde? .
I hear what you are saying, and I agree for the most part, the very structure, foundation of this finansial governed so called democracy is not what it is cracked up to be. Yet, no better alternative present itself. I'd like to fire(with headshots) the whole CEO line of the banking sector and annex "Danskebank" as "Danske Statsbank", the very idea of having a finansial institution being "too big to fail" is just .. madness.

Nope, I work in Copenhagen, not at a uni. And I dont vote "red block"

Europe is already stuck in "Japan 2.0". And the rest of the world is on their wrong paths.

Completely agree, DB is one of those that should have been gone after 2008.

Look at Maersk today, they are in a survival game now and struggles to see their future. Sure oil is one reason, but Maersk line is the other.

The problem is really very simple. Wealth generation have gone from production to finance capitalism. We can see it in the US as well, median household income the last 10 years have dropped 7000$. Wealth moves upwards at the expense of everyone else.

Its the same as Denmark, more people get jobs (Currently), but they earn less and their productivity is less.

And finance capitalism is unsustainable, since you cant (nation/globally) live of it. Only production capitalism can supply this.

 

[cytg111]

..
The problem is really very simple. Wealth generation have gone from production to finance capitalism. We can see it in the US as well, median household income the last 10 years have dropped 7000$. Wealth moves upwards at the expense of everyone else.

Its the same as Denmark, more people get jobs (Currently), but they earn less and their productivity is less.

And finance capitalism is [un]sustainable, since you cant (nation/globally) live of it. Only production capitalism can supply this.

I think we found common ground here, wholeheartedly agree. Yet the thing about production is that it is getting automated more and more .. aand this is not the place for such discussion. But hey, nice to meet you.

 

[Sheep221]

Nope, I work in Copenhagen, not at a uni. And I dont vote "red block"

Europe is already stuck in "Japan 2.0". And the rest of the world is on their wrong paths.

Completely agree, DB is one of those that should have been gone after 2008.

Look at Maersk today, they are in a survival game now and struggles to see their future. Sure oil is one reason, but Maersk line is the other.

The problem is really very simple. Wealth generation have gone from production to finance capitalism. We can see it in the US as well, median household income the last 10 years have dropped 7000$. Wealth moves upwards at the expense of everyone else.

Its the same as Denmark, more people get jobs (Currently), but they earn less and their productivity is less.

And finance capitalism is sustainable, since you cant (nation/globally) live of it. Only production capitalism can supply this.

As long as US and EU companies won't move production back from Asia, we won't get over crisis. It's all about corporate greed which choose to abandon domestic workforce and move to cheaper manufacturing in Asia.
There is not much made here anymore beside vehicles and weapons.

 

[ShintaiDK]

As long as US and EU companies won't move production back from Asia, we won't get over crisis. It's all about corporate greed which choose to abandon domestic workforce and move to cheaper manufacturing in Asia.
There is not much made here anymore beside vehicles and weapons.

Production is declining in Asia too.