There is a NY Times article that puts this in perspective:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09...ed=print&position=
Right now, Newsweek has him up by 11. with a 13 point bounce.
Time magazine's seperate poll has him up by 9 with an 11 point bounce.
Gallup's new poll, out for subscribers, has him up by 10, a 12 point bounce.
The newest poll internal in Missouri has him up by 8 points in Missouri, his first significant lead in the state.
Kerry's biggest problem is simple: he is trying to run his own campaign. Part of being a good leader is picking other people to do the jobs you don't do so well. Clinton picked Carville. Bush picked Rove. Right now, as insiders say, Kerry is calling all his shots. He has $75M in funds to spend for the general campaign since his election. He spent $21M of it in August. Did you notice? Probably not because a gigantic chunk of it was wasted like throwing it in the fire trying to squash the swift boat guys. Bush was queried about his service in the national guard and said "Oh, absolutely, John Kerry served more honorably then I did in Vietnam, and we thank him for it" (AP, August 30) and he otherwise hasn't said anything. It kind of put a damper on the story, because no matter what gets said, he's basically said "yep, I agree.. and your point to the election is?" Whereas John Kerry keeps throwing out commercials and ads and spending money to combat someone who's only spent $1.7M. So, he's blown a big chunk of his budget and hasn't gotten anywhere, as some democrats say, he hasn't talked about any issue but Vietnam.
Meanwhile, he goes out right after the convention and holds a midnight rally, which cost him more then a hundred thousand to be seen on only one cable network in full (MSNBC) because most other networks weren't setup for it at all (CNN didn't get notice until the darn day before!) so more money blown for a speech.. in which he could have came out and said "it's time we talk about domestic issues" instead he went back to "let me tell you about vietnam" well, darnit, you aren't helping yourself, you look like you are chasing your own tail.
If Kerry doesn't hire a campaign manager and take a backseat instead of micromanaging his campaign, then he deserves to lose. Because if you can't surround yourself with those people, and you micromanage like this... If come Sept. 20, he hasn't hired in a real campaign manager and shook up his campaign, then he's in trouble; because after that point, any major shakeup will look desperate; if he does it soon, it will be a minor story for the media circle.. if he does it in October, he'll look doomed.