Bush receives 11 point bounce...( Newsweek )

[AndrewR]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Bush's biggest problem is simple:

Bush

Fixed for you[/quote]

And the President is leading in the polls. Doesn't sound like a problem except for those like yourself.

 

[AndrewR]

Originally posted by: steeplerot
My friends tell me the same thing when they go overseas...
Letting people know you are from the US is a bad thing now...
the world and half this coutnry are sick of W and the sheep still buy into it.....
Maybe Iraq would be a better choice for bushies they could have holy war all day and night...
Oh wait- chickenhawks nevermind...

Sure, because President Bush instigated 9/11. :roll:

There were Americans pretending to be Canadian in Europe way back in 1992-93 when I studied there, and that was long before this administration and the GWOT -- I'll bet you'll try to blame that on the Republicans though. I've been to 21 countries, and I've never hidden that I'm an American. I've never had any problems either. Maybe your friends are just a-holes, and when people see they are American a-holes, they are treated poorly. THAT wouldn't surprise me.

The greatest fallacy of the Left these days is that anti-Americanism is somehow a new attitude. Try reading L'obsession anti-americaine by Jean-Francois Revel (it's in French, should be translated though) for a historical perspective on French anti-Americanism which dates back decades -- though I'm sure you'll again try to blame the current administration.

As for the "holy war" comment, you have some grand plan to negotiate with the Wahabbi followers? Deal peacefully with the Chechens that kill 150 children? It's the sheep like yourself who can't stomach what needs to done that will ultimately doom this country if given control. Plus, if you call anyone a chickenhawk, then I know you served -- where and when?

 

[Painman]

Re: NewsWeak poll:

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
1,008 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
505 Thursday interviews (plus or minus 5)
503 Friday interviews (plus or minus 5)

374 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
303 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
300 Independents (plus or minus 6)

Interesting. Registered Dems outnumber Registered Pubs in this country by about 1.3:1 (72mil vs. 55mil), yet Pubs outnumber Dems in this polling sample by 1.23:1!

Wait 'til we have some data from an organization like Pew Research whose core business is something besides selling as much copy as possible.

I'm going to bed. See the relevant thread at DailyKos for more granular dissection and analysis.

 

[Siddhartha]

The big driver in this election is the votes' disatisfactin with Bush's performance, economy and foreign policies. It appears that the voter has decided that he is okay and it looks like four more years for GWB.

 

[Steeplerot]

It's the sheep like yourself who can't stomach what needs to done that will ultimately doom this country if given control

And it is ignorant violent thought like that that makes people blow things up violence only will perpetuate more violence.
How many families are homeless and killed by us daily?
Ever think people are wacked out and blowing themselves up becasue we have come from across the world to kill them?
Too bad you arent here to meet my friends on the corner they are From Iraq and Palestine.
They say all the time that Arab people dont care if we want to live with them and trade with them,
but dont come and try to take things over or the sh1t hits the fan.


How is this such a hard concept to grasp?
Get out of the mideast stop backing Israel's aggressive polocies that incite hatred, earn respect back from the world.
Muslims as a whole = friend
OR
Bulldoze familys homes march in to lands with tanks wall people out of neighborhoods and bomb innocent familys = Trouble

I would feel the same way as the Iraqis if it was my hood as I am sure you would also if your childs limbs were lying all over your destroyed living room and your family were all dead becasue someone else decided your land was theirs to do with as they please.
How would YOU stomach that situation?

 

[arsbanned]

Of course-- I may have to sneak out of the country for a while and return when things improve if he gets re-elected.

You and me both brother.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Siddhartha
The big driver in this election is the votes' disatisfactin with Bush's performance, economy and foreign policies. It appears that the voter has decided that he is okay and it looks like four more years for GWB.

That has been very very clear by the posts by the P&N Elite in here.

Those doing well and benefitting directly from the Bush administration of Tax cuts for the Rich and money incentives for sending jobs overseas while fattening Execs pockets here post all the time in here of how well they are doing at the expense of the rest of the common lowly citizenry.

 

[nick1985]

Originally posted by: arsbanned

Of course-- I may have to sneak out of the country for a while and return when things improve if he gets re-elected.

You and me both brother.

stay wherever you go.

 

[Red Dawn]

It's almost as if the American People are saying to Bush "You created this mess, you fix it"

 

[Cogman]

Originally posted by: steeplerot

It's the sheep like yourself who can't stomach what needs to done that will ultimately doom this country if given control

And it is ignorant violent thought like that that makes people blow things up violence only will perpetuate more violence.
How many families are homeless and killed by us daily?
Ever think people are wacked out and blowing themselves up becasue we have come from across the world to kill them?
Too bad you arent here to meet my friends on the corner they are From Iraq and Palestine.
They say all the time that Arab people dont care if we want to live with them and trade with them,
but dont come and try to take things over or the sh1t hits the fan.


How is this such a hard concept to grasp?
Get out of the mideast stop backing Israel's aggressive polocies that incite hatred, earn respect back from the world.
Muslims as a whole = friend
OR
Bulldoze familys homes march in to lands with tanks wall people out of neighborhoods and bomb innocent familys = Trouble

I would feel the same way as the Iraqis if it was my hood as I am sure you would also if your childs limbs were lying all over your destroyed living room and your family were all dead becasue someone else decided your land was theirs to do with as they please.
How would YOU stomach that situation?

First off, I would have to say you are the blind one here. The US is not taking over Iraq, they are making it so the Iraqies can have a stable government of their own.

Second, NOBODY said muslims where our enemy, We have said terrorists where, but not muslims.

And now my questions to you. What violence begate the World trade center bombing? What Violence begate the bombing of the USS Cole? What Violence Begate the HUNDREDS killed in a hostile takeover of A SCHOOL?

You seam to think if we just talk to them and smoke a little crack that everything will be fine and we will all be happy. Well your crazy. The terrorists that hate the US hate it because of its Ideals, many of them contridict their own. They call us evil because our main relegion is not their own. They hate us because of who and what we are not What we are doing.

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: Coghead
First off, I would have to say you are the blind one here. The US is not taking over Iraq, they are making it so the Iraqies can have a stable government of their own.

Yeah by the point of a gun. I wonder why the Iraqi's have the misconception that we are trying to impose out will on them?

Second, NOBODY said muslims where our enemy, We have said terrorists where, but not muslims.

Too bad those innocent muslims get in the way when we try to kill the terrorist. Oh well, that's collateral damage for you[/quote]

And now my questions to you. What violence begate the World trade center bombing? What Violence begate the bombing of the USS Cole? What Violence Begate the HUNDREDS killed in a hostile takeover of A SCHOOL?

It sure wasn't Iraq genuis!

You seam to think if we just talk to them and smoke a little crack that everything will be fine and we will all be happy. Well your crazy. The terrorists that hate the US hate it because of its Ideals, many of them contridict their own. They call us evil because our main relegion is not their own. They hate us because of who and what we are not What we are doing.

And in Iraq those who weren't originally terrorists have become insurgents because we are trying to impose our will on them. If someone tried to do the in the US many of us would become insurgents too...even some Republicans.

 

[conjur]

Interesting...

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-.../0002244238&EDATE=

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:

374 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
303 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
300 Independents (plus or minus 6)


SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR SUBGROUPS OF REGISTERED VOTERS
INTERVIEWED FRIDAY

187 Republicans (plus or minus 8)
139 Democrats (plus or minus 9)
165 Independents (plus or minus 8)

 

[umbrella39]

Originally posted by: conjur
Interesting...

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-.../0002244238&EDATE=

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:

374 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
303 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
300 Independents (plus or minus 6)


SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR SUBGROUPS OF REGISTERED VOTERS
INTERVIEWED FRIDAY

187 Republicans (plus or minus 8)
139 Democrats (plus or minus 9)
165 Independents (plus or minus 8)

WOW. If you read all the demog's of the sample it is not surprising who would come out on top calling THESE people. Nice cherry picking Newsweek. Damn liberal media.

:roll:

 

[tmservo]

*laugh* you can criticize the sample for newsweek, but you'd have to contend that Time Magazine and NPR also called the same sample to get their result. The sample, (with +/-) is within the margin of error of registered voters who voted within the last election. Ie, why either party may have "more registered" etc. you have to only poll based on the number in comparitive elections who actually voted, where the numbers are largely tied. The polling was done primarily within swing states and represented a larger margin. To assume their poll is absolutely invalid, you'd have to assume that the great majority of independents broke republican, something that is to most democratic pollsters heresy.

The DNC's own internal poll puts that state party chairs gets puts him down 9. I can find no valid reason to believe that the DNC would send out a message today telling state party chairs that it's "very important" to kick into high gear, etc. that the "stakes are high" etc. and then create their own poll that shows their guy down? I mean, unless you've got a conspiracy theory you want to share

 

[conjur]

Originally posted by: tmservo
*laugh* you can criticize the sample for newsweek, but you'd have to contend that Time Magazine and NPR also called the same sample to get their result. The sample, (with +/-) is within the margin of error of registered voters who voted within the last election. Ie, why either party may have "more registered" etc. you have to only poll based on the number in comparitive elections who actually voted, where the numbers are largely tied. The polling was done primarily within swing states and represented a larger margin. To assume their poll is absolutely invalid, you'd have to assume that the great majority of independents broke republican, something that is to most democratic pollsters heresy.

Actually, no.

Republicans outnumbered Democrats by a 10.4% margin. Is Bush's lead greater or less than 10.4%? It's pretty much right on that so that says the Independents are split rather evenly. The net difference being due to the larger # of Republicans having been questioned.

 

[Darkhawk28]

There's a lot of time left before the election. Kerry has been known as a Mr. October campaigner, so he's not done yet. Kerry needs to come out swinging in the next 60 days though. He has nothing to lose at this point.

 

[umbrella39]

The DNC's own internal poll puts that state party chairs gets puts him down 9

Link please? I would like to read that. Thanks.

 

[Moonbeam]

I don't know who will win or who got how much bounce. I don't buy into the notion that I can magically affect the future by spinning events today.

 

[LordMagnusKain]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
I don't know who will win or who got how much bounce. I don't buy into the notion that I can magically affect the future by spinning events today.

I belive in you moonie.

You can do it, if only you try.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: umbrella39

Originally posted by: conjur
Interesting...

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-.../0002244238&EDATE=

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:

374 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
303 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
300 Independents (plus or minus 6)


SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR SUBGROUPS OF REGISTERED VOTERS
INTERVIEWED FRIDAY

187 Republicans (plus or minus 8)
139 Democrats (plus or minus 9)
165 Independents (plus or minus 8)

WOW. If you read all the demog's of the sample it is not surprising who would come out on top calling THESE people. Nice cherry picking Newsweek. Damn liberal media.

:roll:

I blame whitey :roll:

283 Southern White (plus or minus 7)
559 Non-Southern White (plus or minus 5)
144 Non-White (plus or minus 8)

CsG

 

[tmservo]

Actually, no.

Republicans outnumbered Democrats by a 10.4% margin. Is Bush's lead greater or less than 10.4%? It's pretty much right on that so that says the Independents are split rather evenly. The net difference being due to the larger # of Republicans having been questioned.

Ever take statistical math? (R)s may outnumber (D) by 10%, but that number doesn't make up 10% of the entire statistical model.

Of the friday sample:

18.7% were republicans
13.9% were democrats
16.5% were independent

Of the Total sample:

37.4% were Republicans ( + /- 6)
30.3% were democrats (+ / - 6)
30% were independent ( + / - 6)

Which means at the gap could have been as small as none to as large as 15 (though for that to occur, something really messed would have to translate into both the Time and NPR polls). So, the (R)s have a rolling distance of 6% of the sample. This would give the total poll a +/- 6 as accuracy.

More then that, scroll down. 5% of those republicans polled said that they would not vote for Bush, that they were supporting KERRY. Whereas 14% of those who identified themselves as Democrats preffered Bush.

It was the DEMOCRATIC sample that killed you in the poll.

BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

Yes No DK
Current Total 53 43 4 =100

Republican 93 5 2 =100
Democrat 14 82 4 =100
Independent 48 46 6 =100

 

[umbrella39]

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: umbrella39

Originally posted by: conjur
Interesting...

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-.../0002244238&EDATE=

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:

374 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
303 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
300 Independents (plus or minus 6)


SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR SUBGROUPS OF REGISTERED VOTERS
INTERVIEWED FRIDAY

187 Republicans (plus or minus 8)
139 Democrats (plus or minus 9)
165 Independents (plus or minus 8)

WOW. If you read all the demog's of the sample it is not surprising who would come out on top calling THESE people. Nice cherry picking Newsweek. Damn liberal media.

:roll:

I blame whitey :roll:

283 Southern White (plus or minus 7)
559 Non-Southern White (plus or minus 5)
144 Non-White (plus or minus 8)

CsG

Dang CAD I wasn't blaming whitey. That stat is actually about right IMO. This one struck me as odd:

541 Bush/Cheney supporters (plus or minus 5)
403 Kerry/Edward supporters (plus or minus 6)

These affiliation was not discovered during the polling INM, they knew this information BEFORE they called these people.

Hmmm. Again, not terribly surprising if you call more Bush supporters than you do Kerry supporters, you will see this kind of lead. I would be just as vocal if the poll suggested Kerry had an 11% lead and flip the 541 - 403 in favor of the Dems.

Sheesh.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: umbrella39

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: umbrella39

Originally posted by: conjur
Interesting...

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-.../0002244238&EDATE=

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:

374 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
303 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
300 Independents (plus or minus 6)


SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR SUBGROUPS OF REGISTERED VOTERS
INTERVIEWED FRIDAY

187 Republicans (plus or minus 8)
139 Democrats (plus or minus 9)
165 Independents (plus or minus 8)

WOW. If you read all the demog's of the sample it is not surprising who would come out on top calling THESE people. Nice cherry picking Newsweek. Damn liberal media.

:roll:

I blame whitey :roll:

283 Southern White (plus or minus 7)
559 Non-Southern White (plus or minus 5)
144 Non-White (plus or minus 8)

CsG

Dang CAD I wasn't blaming whitey. That stat is actually about right IMO. This one struck me as odd:

541 Bush/Cheney supporters (plus or minus 5)
403 Kerry/Edward supporters (plus or minus 6)

These were not discoved after the polling, they knew this information BEFORE they called these people.

Hmmm. Again, not terribly surprising if you call more Bush supporters than you do Kerry supporters, you will see this kind of lead. I would be just as vocal if the poll suggested Kerry had an 11% lead and flip the 541 - 403 in favor of the Dems.

Sheesh.

Again, the same argument could be made about "whitey".

CsG

 

[tmservo]

These were not discoved after the polling, they knew this information BEFORE they called these people.

The poll was done at random. A question was specifically asked if they identified themselves as supporters of either ticket. The results of statistics at the top are compiled out of questions 1a-1c and are used by the research firm. Software is present on their end which takes in the information as they get it and establishes the rolling value of variance, and those questions create the margins in the top

 

[umbrella39]

If that be the case, my bad. I already edited my posted to include INM (if not mistaken).