Bush receives 11 point bounce...( Newsweek )

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tmservo

Junior Member
Aug 27, 2004
22
0
0
It's OK. These kind of polls are sometimes tricky when you get to the macro-internals. But Newsweek actually did a pretty good job; the NPR poll, which is more detailed, shows the same trend that should get more notice then this "look at the sample" In all polls, 79-83% of Democrats say they are supporting Kerry, but in all three polls, more then 10% say they are supporting Bush. In comparison, less then 5% of republicans in all three polls say they will support Kerry. That's where Kerry's real battle is, to see why he last members of his own party.
 

Steeplerot

Lifer
Mar 29, 2004
13,051
6
81
Originally posted by: Cogman

And now my questions to you. What violence begate the World trade center bombing? What Violence begate the bombing of the USS Cole? What Violence Begate the HUNDREDS killed in a hostile takeover of A SCHOOL?

You seam to think if we just talk to them and smoke a little crack that everything will be fine and we will all be happy. Well your crazy. The terrorists that hate the US hate it because of its Ideals, many of them contridict their own. They call us evil because our main relegion is not their own. They hate us because of who and what we are not What we are doing.



Motives for 9/11 Terrorist Attacks

The motives for 9/11 are no mystery. The motives have been stated by several people clearly and repeatedly for years. The terrorists are not attacking us in order to force us to convert to Islam or because we don't believe in Islam or that they don't like freedom or that they are envious.
Note that Osama bin Laden has said why repeatedly and he says that the attacks will continue UNTIL specific foreign policies (American policy in the Middle East and its support of Israel) are stopped. He doesn't say "until you believe in Alah", none of the terrorists have ever said this or anything about attacking us because of our freedoms. It is dangerous to spread false reasons for why 9/11 happened. Please read the following for the motives for 9/11 attacks:
"Your position against Muslims in Palestine is despicable and disgraceful. America has no shame. ... We believe that the worst thieves in the world today and the worst terrorists are the Americans. Nothing could stop you except perhaps retaliation in kind. We do not have to differentiate between military or civilian. As far as we are concerned, they are all targets, and this is what the fatwah says ... . The fatwah is general (comprehensive) and it includes all those who participate in, or help the Jewish occupiers in killing Muslims. " - Osama bin Laden May 1998
"For over half a century, Muslims in Palestine have been slaughtered and assaulted and robbed of their honor and of their property. Their houses have been blasted, their crops destroyed. And the strange thing is that any act on their part to avenge themselves or to lift the injustice befalling them causes great agitation in the United Nations which hastens to call for an emergency meeting only to convict the victim and to censure the wronged and the tyrannized whose children have been killed and whose crops have been destroyed and whose farms have been pulverized " - Osama bin Laden May 1998
"The International Islamic Front for Jihad against the U.S. and Israel has issued a crystal-clear fatwa calling on the Islamic nation to carry on jihad aimed at liberating holy sites. The nation of Muhammad has responded to this appeal. If the instigation for jihad against the Jews and the Americans in order to liberate Al-Aksa Mosque and the Holy Ka'aba Islamic shrines in the Middle East is considered a crime, then let history be a witness that I am a criminal." - Osama bin Laden May 1999
"We swore that America wouldn't live in security until we live it truly in Palestine . This showed the reality of America, which puts Israel's interest above its own people's interest. America won't get out of this crisis until it gets out of the Arabian Peninsula , and until it stops its support of Israel." -Osama bin Laden, October 2001
A German friend of Mohammed Atta(the hijacker pilot who flew into WTC) is quoted as describing him as "most imbued actually about Israeli politics in the region and about US protection of these Israeli politics in the region. And he was to a degree personally suffering from that."
These facts point to a motive for attacking the WTC in 2001 that is consistent with the motive expressed by terrorists in a letter sent to the New York Times after the 1993 bombing attack of the WTC, "We declare our responsibility for the explosion on the mentioned building. This action was done in response for the American political, economical, and military support to Israel the state of terrorism and to the rest of the dictator countries in the region."
It is also the same motive that Mir Aimal Kasi had for killing CIA employees Frank Darling and Lansing Bennett outside CIA headquarters in Langley,Virginia in 1993 . Mir Aimal Kasi said, "What I did was a retaliation against the US government for American policy in the Middle East and its support of Israel ." Mir Aimal Kasi once professed a love for this country, his uncle testified. "He always say that 'I like America, I love America and I want to go there,'" Amanullah Kasi said at a sentencing hearing for his nephew, Mir Aimal Kasi . Kasi's roommate, who had reported him missing after the shootings, told police that Kasi would get incensed watching CNN when he heard how Muslims were being treated. After the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, Kasi said he did not approve of the attack on the World Trade Center because innocent were killed. He understood, however, the attack on the Pentagon, the symbol of government might.
The shoe bomber (Richard Reid) has said:"The reason for me sending you (a document he calls his "will") is so you can see that I didn't do this act out of ignorance nor did I just do it because I want to die, but rather because I see it as a duty upon me to help remove the oppressive American forces from the Muslim land and that this is the only way for us to do so as we do not have other means to fight them."
Abdullah Azzam authored Join the Caravan and he writes, "We then are calling upon the Muslims and urging them to proceed to fight, for many reasons, at the head of which are the following:" Then he lists 16 reasons. NONE of them state that the reason is just for the sake of attacking non-believers.In fact the first reason is: "1. In order that the Disbelievers do not dominate.""Do not dominate" Note that he does not write "just because they are disbelievers" or "in order to make them believe." NONE of the 16 reasons say "fight to make disbelievers into Muslims"In fact Osama bin Laden addressed the lying about motives for 9/11:
"... the Mujahideen saw the black gang of thugs in the White House hiding the Truth, and their stupid and foolish leader, who is elected and supported by his people, denying reality and proclaiming that we (the Mujahideen) were striking them because we were jealous of them (the Americans), whereas the reality is that we are striking them because of their evil and injustice in the whole of the Islamic World, especially in Iraq and Palestine and their occupation of the Land of the Two Holy Sanctuaries." -Osama Bin Laden , February 14 , 2003
in that same statement Osama bin Laden once again listed the motives: " ... in 1995 , the explosion in Riyadh took place, killing four Americans, in a clear message from the people of that region displaying their rejection and opposition to the American policy of bankrolling the Jews and occupying the Land of the Two Holy Sanctuaries. The following year, another explosion in Al-Khobar killed 19 Americans and wounded more than 400 of them, prompting them to move their bases from the cities to the desert . Then in 1998 , the Mujahideen warned America to cease their support to the Jews and to leave the Land of the Two Holy Sanctuaries, but the enemy refused to heed this warning, so the Mujahideen, with the ability from Allah , smashed them with two mighty smashes in East Africa . Then again America was warned, but she refused to pay attention to the warnings, so the Mujahideen destroyed the American Destroyer, the USS Cole, in Aden, in a martyrdom operation, striking a solid blow to the face of the American military and at the same time, exposing the Yemeni Government as American agents, similar to all the countries in the region." -Osama bin Laden February 14, 2003
--------------------------------------------------------------------
I condemn killing another person for beliefs but I want to see Osama caught and dealt with as much as any other American but this is not an issue of beliefs it is a direct attack on a native peoples and their response. if you think America is innocent then look back on our history of genocide. People don't blow themselves up for no reason we need to look in the mirror first or all our talk of a shining beacon of freedom sounds like just another American double-standard while Arab famlies die at OUR hand.

We have been the agressors time and time again by our MANY MANY vetos in the UN, our regime overthrowing happy goverment and meddling in their affairs this isn't so much of a war on terrorism against the US but a cry out for attention to our terrorist war on a poor people half a world away and their response.
Violence begats violence time and time again we kill their famlies and people arent just going to sit around and take it forever -the only way to stand up to a overwhelming military is partisan actions (IE terrorism)
Simple cause and effect stop killing Muslim people and they will go back to normal life. Noone wants this stuff to happen but it is not surprising at all. (I said this on 9/11/01 and It is double true now with our ageressive actions in Iraq Abu Gharib shelling of the Mosque in Najif (My Iraqi and Palestine friends on the corner were actually for the invasion of Iraq and getting rid of Saddam but after the bit in Najif they are hopping mad and lost Bush's vote from some of Americas newest citizens who love this country -They moved here of their own free will now they are torn and will be voting otherwise. One of them wants to go home now he is so worried about his family in Iraq. You watch a grown man cry seeing bombs dropped from the sky on the land where his family lives while he fears for their lives and tell me who are we betraying?
I for one very p1ssed too see explosions on that TV set and hearing them play a sad song on their insturments (they have a band together and practice often) while they watched for pictures of their famlies safe. how do you think he feels about Abu-Gharib when he has a little brother in Iraq still?
Could YOU feel safe here in a country that invades your former home under dodgy circumstances and shoves broomsticks up the young mens azz?
How can you explain to someone that not all Americans support this and only a few misguided ones are behind this becasue they are fooled into thinking it is for Americas best interests.
WE ALL owe him an apology for the (hopefully he finds out they are somewhere hiding or with realatives) murder of his family and friends cuz those Americans that come in every day and say "We are sorry you have to go through this we are doing our best to make sure we get America back to the values it was founded upon."
He just nods sadly with a defeated look on his face while the talking head of W drones on more half-truths on their old TV set on top of the beer cooler.
He came here to make a new life as a American as we all did. And look how the country turned.
Someone shot at the window to his shop the other day. (only cracked it luckily it would have been robbed in a heartbeat in the city!)
What can we say to him as he watches his former home go up in flames?
He is angry at the administration not the people. And rightly so as a LOT of us are too.

here is :beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer: for Hussein (That is his name it is a common name in Iraq from what he says) and our fellow human beings in Iraq -our brothers and sisters dying at Americas hand right now. May this all work out in the end and may they be able to carry on with peaceful lives not occupied by western forces with their own agenda.
And may this black mark on America's history be forgotten soon and the administration who caused it.
 

chowderhead

Platinum Member
Dec 7, 1999
2,633
263
126
Originally posted by: tmservo
It's OK. These kind of polls are sometimes tricky when you get to the macro-internals. But Newsweek actually did a pretty good job; the NPR poll, which is more detailed, shows the same trend that should get more notice then this "look at the sample" In all polls, 79-83% of Democrats say they are supporting Kerry, but in all three polls, more then 10% say they are supporting Bush. In comparison, less then 5% of republicans in all three polls say they will support Kerry. That's where Kerry's real battle is, to see why he last members of his own party.

I agree that Kerry is hemorrhaging weak Democrats but I will believe that most Democrats "will come home" in November i.e. 88% to 90% as most Republicans will vote for GWB i.e 92-95%. I do have a problem with the polls weighing in many more Republican votes because typically, if you poll on Fridays and Saturdays, you will get more Republicans. The problem is that this large bump is hyped in the media as may influence the election with the winning team effect. Sure, I believe that GWB is ahead but I do not he is ahead by the 11% that is reported.
If for example, they polled about even numbers of Democrats and Republican, you may get results like this

Pew Research PDF

Also, I tried to look for the demographics of the Newsweek poll after the Democratic convention and could not find the same breakdown as the prnewswire link previously. I wonder why they didn't release those?
 

Painman

Diamond Member
Feb 27, 2000
3,728
29
86
Well, the old saying is unfortunately true. Uniting Dems is like herding cats. As opposed as I am to the current crop of 'Pubs, I have to give credit where credit is due. In the face of adversity, 'Pubs rally around their man and prop him up. They stay on message. I am seeing too many Dems portending doom and lashing out at Kerry any time news and events take a turn for the worse, or whenever he doesn't say exactly what they want him to.

NEWS FLASH FOR EVERYONE WHO WANTS TO SEE BUSH GO DOWN IN FLAMES.

We can't control events. We certainly can't control the corporate media mouthpiece. We can control the Dem candidate to some extent, but only through constructive criticism. Negative criticism of Kerry among Dems, along with (and enhanced by) the recent polls, only reinforces the now popular meme that the Kerry campaign is unravelling. That is Karl Rove's wet dream - defeat the Dems by way of their own defeatism. Saves him a lot of work, and ultimately makes defeatist Dems traitors to their own cause. Look, polls go up and down, convention "bounces" are called exactly that, because what goes up must come down at some point. Chill out. Keep your eye on the goal. People get out and vote for candidates who look like winners, not ones who look like losers. Which one are you making your guy out to be?

YOU'RE EITHER WITH US, OR AGAINST US.

Since Dems can't hope to win the fight within the 'Pub-controlled (and effectively, state-controlled) print or broadcast media, the fight has to be taken to the internet, the telephone, the mailbox, the sidewalk, the letters to the editor, the front lawns and car bumpers of America. People do lurk here and gauge the health of the Kerry campaign based on the reactions of anti-Bush/pro-Kerry posters here. In other words, hand-wringing in here can equate to lost votes out there, so stop it. In the immortal words of JFK, "Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country."

DEMOCRACY IS NOT A SPECTATOR SPORT.

So get off of the bleachers already. Get involved. You'll feel better.
 

GoPackGo

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 2003
6,457
526
126
Another bad sign for Kerry is that he is not the leading Democrat in the news right now....

Any wind he may have gotten doing his Midnight Rally got immediately taken away by the news of President Clintons heart problems.

They continue to dominate the press, which keeps Kerry on the second page if not further.

The hurricane is also not good for Kerry because the news channels just love having their reporters standing out in the storm.

There are less than two months to the election and Kerry has done a really poor job getting out a message.

I live in a "swing" state and havent seen a pro-kerry ad yet...lots of anti-bush ads, lots of anti-kerry ads and lots of pro-bush ads.

There has been some talk about Kerry re-inventing himself...or getting out his message...its a little late for that and should have been done at the convention.

Perhaps he was a little too busy "reporting for duty"
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: tmservo
Clinton sends word from the Hospital: if you want to save your campaign, stop talking Vietnam!

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09...ed=print&position=

The $75 million in Ad spending has begun. Have seen a flurry of new Kerry Ads here this morning in Louisiana. All focusing on the Economy except for one where somone from the Military appearing in a Photo with Colin Powell said he voted for Bush 4 years ago but now voting for Kerry.

Saw one Bush Ad. It was 100% attacks on Kerry, nothing about Bush's record.

It looked like a typical Neocon post in here.
 

bjc112

Lifer
Dec 23, 2000
11,460
0
76
Originally posted by: GoPackGo
Another bad sign for Kerry is that he is not the leading Democrat in the news right now....

Any wind he may have gotten doing his Midnight Rally got immediately taken away by the news of President Clintons heart problems.

They continue to dominate the press, which keeps Kerry on the second page if not further.

The hurricane is also not good for Kerry because the news channels just love having their reporters standing out in the storm.

There are less than two months to the election and Kerry has done a really poor job getting out a message.

I live in a "swing" state and havent seen a pro-kerry ad yet...lots of anti-bush ads, lots of anti-kerry ads and lots of pro-bush ads.

There has been some talk about Kerry re-inventing himself...or getting out his message...its a little late for that and should have been done at the convention.

Perhaps he was a little too busy "reporting for duty"

HAHA, and i agree..



 

jjzelinski

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2004
3,750
0
0
Originally posted by: Painman
Well, the old saying is unfortunately true. Uniting Dems is like herding cats. As opposed as I am to the current crop of 'Pubs, I have to give credit where credit is due. In the face of adversity, 'Pubs rally around their man and prop him up. They stay on message. I am seeing too many Dems portending doom and lashing out at Kerry any time news and events take a turn for the worse, or whenever he doesn't say exactly what they want him to.

NEWS FLASH FOR EVERYONE WHO WANTS TO SEE BUSH GO DOWN IN FLAMES.

We can't control events. We certainly can't control the corporate media mouthpiece. We can control the Dem candidate to some extent, but only through constructive criticism. Negative criticism of Kerry among Dems, along with (and enhanced by) the recent polls, only reinforces the now popular meme that the Kerry campaign is unravelling. That is Karl Rove's wet dream - defeat the Dems by way of their own defeatism. Saves him a lot of work, and ultimately makes defeatist Dems traitors to their own cause. Look, polls go up and down, convention "bounces" are called exactly that, because what goes up must come down at some point. Chill out. Keep your eye on the goal. People get out and vote for candidates who look like winners, not ones who look like losers. Which one are you making your guy out to be?

YOU'RE EITHER WITH US, OR AGAINST US.

Since Dems can't hope to win the fight within the 'Pub-controlled (and effectively, state-controlled) print or broadcast media, the fight has to be taken to the internet, the telephone, the mailbox, the sidewalk, the letters to the editor, the front lawns and car bumpers of America. People do lurk here and gauge the health of the Kerry campaign based on the reactions of anti-Bush/pro-Kerry posters here. In other words, hand-wringing in here can equate to lost votes out there, so stop it. In the immortal words of JFK, "Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country."

DEMOCRACY IS NOT A SPECTATOR SPORT.

So get off of the bleachers already. Get involved. You'll feel better.


Excellent points, kuods :beer:
 

Gaard

Diamond Member
Feb 17, 2002
8,911
1
0
Electoral Vote Predictor 2004

Despite this being a holiday weekend, we actually have a real poll, and an important one at that. Bush has take a 3% lead in New Mexico, a major switch since the previous poll, where Kerry was 6% ahead. However, it should be pointed out that this poll was taken during the RNC and just after Bush campaigned there.

Rasmussen has started publishing a 3-day rolling average every day. For Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, (all post-speech), Bush's lead nationally has shrunk to 1.2%. Rasmussen looked at the Time and Newsweek polls we had yesterday and said the samples had too many Republicans in them. When he corrected for this effect, he concluded that the Time and Newsweek data might support the conclusion of a 3% Bush lead, not more. This observation is noteworthy because it is relatively rare when one pollster says that his colleagues blew it.


 

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
58,686
3
0
Bush Bounce Fading Fast!
Not so fast, says Newsweek. ""With 2 percent of the vote going to Ralph Nader, removing the independent candidate from the ticket has little effect on the spread, with 50 percent of the vote for Bush and 45 percent Kerry. (The sudden shift in the NEWSWEEK poll from last week's results is dramatic but not unprecedented-in 1988 Michael Dukakis's 17-point lead dropped to 10 points within two weeks.)"
 

Sketcher

Platinum Member
Aug 15, 2001
2,237
0
0
Originally posted by: Painman
Since Dems can't hope to win the fight within the 'Pub-controlled (and effectively, state-controlled) print or broadcast media, the fight has to be taken to the internet, the telephone, the mailbox, the sidewalk, the letters to the editor, the front lawns and car bumpers of America.
I needed a good laugh today! :laugh: Thanks for that.

Correct though, everyone needs to get out and vote!

Sigh... \reaches for tissue... chuckles...
 

digitalsm

Diamond Member
Jul 11, 2003
5,253
0
0
Originally posted by: conjur
Bush Bounce Fading Fast!
Not so fast, says Newsweek. ""With 2 percent of the vote going to Ralph Nader, removing the independent candidate from the ticket has little effect on the spread, with 50 percent of the vote for Bush and 45 percent Kerry. (The sudden shift in the NEWSWEEK poll from last week's results is dramatic but not unprecedented-in 1988 Michael Dukakis's 17-point lead dropped to 10 points within two weeks.)"

Any idea if they corrected their polling sample after many pointed out their last poll wasnt reflective of the electorate?
 

Darkhawk28

Diamond Member
Dec 22, 2000
6,759
0
0
Time Magazine's "polls" have been dubious as of late.

Remember the 20th century Man of the Year online poll? Didn't Ric Flair, a famous professional wrestler for those who don't know, win that poll? Time claimed it was a glitch of some sort. LOL.
 

chowderhead

Platinum Member
Dec 7, 1999
2,633
263
126
Originally posted by: digitalsm
Originally posted by: conjur
Bush Bounce Fading Fast!
Not so fast, says Newsweek. ""With 2 percent of the vote going to Ralph Nader, removing the independent candidate from the ticket has little effect on the spread, with 50 percent of the vote for Bush and 45 percent Kerry. (The sudden shift in the NEWSWEEK poll from last week's results is dramatic but not unprecedented-in 1988 Michael Dukakis's 17-point lead dropped to 10 points within two weeks.)"

Any idea if they corrected their polling sample after many pointed out their last poll wasnt reflective of the electorate?

NewsWeek 9/09-10/04 poll
Newsweek Poll
Post-Labor Day
Princeton Survey Research Associates International

Final Topline Results
(9/11/04)

N = 1,003 Registered Voters
Margin of error: plus or minus 4
Interviewing dates: September 9-10, 2004

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS:
1,166 Total adults (plus or minus 3)

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
1,003 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)

391 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
300 Democrats (plus or minus 7)
270 Independents (plus or minus 7)

273 Southern White (plus or minus 7)
565 Non-Southern White (plus or minus 5)
131 Non-White (plus or minus 8)

514 Bush/Cheney supporters (plus or minus 5)
420 Kerry/Edward supporters (plus or minus 6)

NOTE: Data are weighted so that sample demographics match Census Current
Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race and
region.

NOTE: Reported sample sizes for subgroups listed above are unweighted and
should NOT be used to compute percentages.

They did claim to weigh the survey based on demos. Again, they polled many more Republicans and many less minorities (minorities made up 20% of electorate in 2000 vs the 14% they polled here) which tends to be more pro-Democrats (i.e. blacks 85% and Hispanics 60%).
But if you look at the raw numbers of 514 GWB supporters and 420 Kerry, out of 1003, GWB only went down a few points and Kerry up 1 point when they weighed the results to get 49% vs. 43%. WTF.

In all honesty, please correct me if I am totally off here ... but this doesn't make sense.
 

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
58,686
3
0
Bush Approval Rating Back Below 50%
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5971162/site/newsweek/
The poll also found that as convention buzz subsides, Bush?s approval ratings have again dropped below the 50 percent mark (48 percent approve, 44 percent disapprove). Bush?s favorability ratings have also slipped slightly, to 52 percent favorable (and 44 percent unfavorable) from 55 percent favorable (40 percent unfavorable). Kerry?s favorability ratings, which had dropped to 45 percent (and 46 percent unfavorable) during the Republican convention have climbed slightly to 48 percent and 44 percent, but still remain lower than they were before the GOP gathering.
 

raildogg

Lifer
Aug 24, 2004
12,892
572
126
Originally posted by: Sudheer Anne
Don't expect it to last. The RNC was superbly done, absolutely masterful. People will begin to see through it though, and it appears as if John Kerry is fully on the offensive and hitting the President hard on jobs and the economy.

This election will still be decided in a handful of states, almost all of which view the economy as a bigger issue than national security. I read some excerpts from Kerry's speeches today and they show a voracity and viciousness from Kerry I've not seen before. I think its fair to say this race has just gotten started. Should be an interesting two months. May the best man win.

Totally misleading on your part. Bush is ahead in most of these battleground states. Whether they view terrorist or the economy as a bigger issue, its definately clear that Bush is ahead and Kerry better be worrying.
 

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
58,686
3
0
Bush Bounce due to women?
President Bush's post-convention "bounce" shows that he has managed to invigorate many of his supporters. According to Gallup surveys, among likely voters, Mr. Bush increased his slight lead over Mr. Kerry (50 percent to 47 percent) in the days following the Democratic convention to a more comfortable margin (52 percent to 45 percent) just after the Republican convention. Other surveys also show that Mr. Bush's lead has widened.

What accounts for this change in Mr. Bush's fortunes? According to our research, the answer is simple: women.

The same series of Gallup polls among likely voters showed women favoring Mr. Kerry by five points (51 percent to 46 percent) immediately following the Democratic convention. After the Republican convention, however, the Bush-Cheney ticket closed to a virtual tie among women (49 percent for Mr. Kerry to 48 percent for Mr. Bush). At the same time, according to the Gallup numbers, Mr. Bush's huge lead among men (57 percent to 42 percent) remained stable.


Mr. Bush's growing strength among women is the result not just of his emphasis on issues they care about. Instead, his boost stems from his skill at articulating the issues in a way that appeals to women - especially in his acceptance speech 10 days ago.

Some commentators criticized parts of Mr. Bush's speech for resembling a State of the Union address, complete with a laundry list of domestic agenda items. His references to schools, children's health care and mothers who work outside the home were seen as a transparent effort to win favor with women. Other critics portrayed the convention mostly as a testosterone-fueled rally at which Republicans stressed Mr. Bush's toughness and strength in the war on terrorism.

Our analysis of the speech differs. For the first time, the president was able to broaden his appeal to women not just by discussing social issues. He also found a way to talk about terrorism and the war in Iraq in a way that resonates with women.

The president's speech was interesting to us because it overlapped with some of the work we did this year analyzing the women's vote for a conservative women's group. Our work culminated last month with focus groups among undecided Republican and independent women voters. It soon became apparent that Mr. Bush's popularity among women would hinge on three critical elements: his building an emotional connection, humanizing himself and portraying himself as the candidate who can keep America safe.

Mr. Bush managed to hit all these points in his speech. He wasted no time building an emotional connection. "In the heart of this great city, we saw tragedy arrive on a quiet morning," he said in the first moments of his speech. "We saw the bravery of rescuers grow with danger. We learned of passengers on a doomed plane who died with a courage that frightened their killers."

Then, near the end of his speech, he humanized himself, telling his listeners that, in the presidency, "whatever shortcomings you have, people are going to notice them - and whatever strengths you have, you're going to need them." He told a story to give Americans - women in particular - a glimpse into his persona: "I've held the children of the fallen, who are told their dad or mom is a hero, but would rather just have their dad or mom."

Far from being a reckless, gun-toting cowboy, George W. Bush presented himself as a compassionate, thoughtful leader who made tough, lonely choices to keep Americans safe. The almost unspoken contrast was with Mr. Kerry - whose name Mr. Bush mentioned only once - as an indecisive, unknown commodity who could make us all vulnerable.

Doubtless many women - and men - would rather focus on "safer" domestic issues, like jobs or health care, that may be controversial but are rarely life-threatening. But events like 9/11 or the recent terrorist attack on a Russian elementary school have left many Americans wondering what could be next. Mr. Bush appealed not just to their fears but to their hopes as well.

To be sure, the president did not erase Mr. Kerry's lead among women with one speech. Yet Mr. Bush's speech was the culmination of a studied, nuanced effort to alter the Republican message to women, and - perhaps more significant - to overhaul the approach of the party in reaching out to the majority of voters.

It's a revision of strategy, and a reversal of fortune, that deserves greater attention. In this presidential election, it is becoming more and more clear that the female voter is the true swing voter.

No wonder the Bush bounce is already fading. Women change their minds very easily.
 

ntdz

Diamond Member
Aug 5, 2004
6,989
0
0
so the real men vote republican

lol, again, just joking, no need to flame :~
 

thegimp03

Diamond Member
Jul 5, 2004
7,420
2
81
Haha. There's no reason this election should be close. Bush should win by a mile if the media (ie: CBS) stops forging documents to hurt him. Kerry is such a flip-flop that any rational Democrat should see right through him and his intentions and make the right choice in voting for Bush.
 
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