Buy RAM now, or wait?

[Valantar]

So I'm planning a couple of PC builds this year: My ancient Core 2 Quad system is (finally!) going the way of the dodo (or, well, I'll try to repurpose it somehow), replaced by whatever gives best price/perf for gaming and office use while still (seemingly) giving the system some longevity between Ryzen and KBL. Also, my girlfriend needs a new desktop. She'll be doing some video editing, but other than that the usage is relatively light. I'm still planning things out, but in general I can't do much until Ryzen is launched.

My question, though: I'll be buying 16GB of RAM for my own system (I'm currently doing fine with 8, so 16 should be plenty), and probably 32 for hers. With RAM prices projected to spike in 2017, and our builds being at least a couple of months out, should I buy the RAM now? From looking at prices, they're already a bit higher than what I was expecting, and I've seen things like 30% price increases thrown around, which would definitely hurt.

Of course, buying RAM blindly means I have no guarantee of it being on the QVL lists for whatever motherboards we end up getting. I've never had trouble with this before (heck, I have plenty of positive experiences using unmatched sets of dumpster-dived RAM in various laptops. Also, my HTPC runs a non-QVL G.skill kit on its ASrock FM2A88X-ITX+ board), but people keep insisting on following the lists and citing all kinds of issues.

 

[CakeMonster]

Buy when you need and when you know what you need. Don't base anything off projections on price, that has burned people before.

 

[DrMrLordX]

If you know what kits you need now, buy them now. Only reason to hold off is if you're worried about compatibility on a board that isn't out yet (or otherwise has an iffy/obscured QVL list, which is not common).

Odds are there won't be any siginificant price decreases or sales on DRAM or NAND in the months to come. But that's just what the press is saying.

 

[BonzaiDuck]

I can't cast a vote on this -- and I'm terribly conflicted. I not only face a decision of buying RAM now versus later.

I can't make up my mind to take the risk of populating all four slots with two kits of the same G.SKILL ddr4-3200 14-14-14 RAM for 4x8=32GB, or buying a new kit of 2x16's of that spec. G.SKILL -- in cordial e-mails -- cannot guarantee the RAM will run as 4x8 because the 4x8's they sell are a match-tested set. That doesn't mean they won't run at the spec though, but only that G.SKILL cannot honestly guarantee it. And of course, they mentioned the greater likelihood of running them at 3000 14-14-14.

If I go one way, it would currently cost me about $144. If I go the other way, it will cost me about $280, with a spare-a-pair with no home -- I'll have to sell them.

It also boils down to this: I could use an extra 8GB of RAM, but an extra 16GB is more than I need. There are 2x4=8GB kits of TridentZ's, but the timings are looser than those of my 2x8=16GB.

I suppose the issue there is whether loosening the 14-14-14's to 16-15-etc. and HOPEFULLY running them under the XMP profile will produce the proper secondary timings for both kits.

Any experience or thoughts about this are appreciated in anticipation.

 

[Valantar]

If you know what kits you need now, buy them now. Only reason to hold off is if you're worried about compatibility on a board that isn't out yet (or otherwise has an iffy/obscured QVL list, which is not common).

Odds are there won't be any siginificant price decreases or sales on DRAM or NAND in the months to come. But that's just what the press is saying.

Did you even read my post? Seriously?
a) I'm considering buying Ryzen. For both builds. As such, there are no motherboards launched, thus no QVL lists. At all.
b) Who's talking about sales or price decreases? I'm talking about the potential for avoiding the predicted price hikes that the entire tech press (and DRAM industry) are projecting due to massive supply shortages/increased demand.

What I'm asking for here are opinions on wether to buy now (and risk going off-QVL), or sticking it out (and risk significant RAM price increases). Your post provides none of that.

I can't cast a vote on this -- and I'm terribly conflicted. I not only face a decision of buying RAM now versus later.

I can't make up my mind to take the risk of populating all four slots with two kits of the same G.SKILL ddr4-3200 14-14-14 RAM for 4x8=32GB, or buying a new kit of 2x16's of that spec. G.SKILL -- in cordial e-mails -- cannot guarantee the RAM will run as 4x8 because the 4x8's they sell are a match-tested set. That doesn't mean they won't run at the spec though, but only that G.SKILL cannot honestly guarantee it. And of course, they mentioned the greater likelihood of running them at 3000 14-14-14.

If I go one way, it would currently cost me about $144. If I go the other way, it will cost me about $280, with a spare-a-pair with no home -- I'll have to sell them.

It also boils down to this: I could use an extra 8GB of RAM, but an extra 16GB is more than I need. There are 2x4=8GB kits of TridentZ's, but the timings are looser than those of my 2x8=16GB.

I suppose the issue there is whether loosening the 14-14-14's to 16-15-etc. and HOPEFULLY running them under the XMP profile will produce the proper secondary timings for both kits.

Any experience or thoughts about this are appreciated in anticipation.

I did this exact thing back in ... 2009? 2010? Something like that. Back when I bought the motherboard that's still at the core of my main PC (yeah, I'm still rocking an X48 Core2Quad), I got a 2x2GB kit of DDR2-1066 CL5 or some such (Corsair Dominator, if memory serves me well). After realizing a year or two into using the PC that 4GB was too little, I got a "matching" kit (felt quite lucky too, as DDR2 was leaving the market) of the same capacity, speed and CL. Of course the model # was slightly different (logical as my original kit came with one of those awful 3x40mm fan RAM coolers), but I didn't think that would matter. Much to my surprise (I wasn't exactly well informed at the time), this gave me a whole host of BSODs and trouble. That was, until I actually looked at the labels on the new RAM and saw that the subtimings on the new sticks were a notch or two worse across the board. Manually adjusting the timings to match the slower set, everything has worked flawlessly since (well, the kit is running at something like 1057 MHz thanks to the fun nature of FSB-DRAM clock strapping and FSB overclocking, but other than that, it's all good).

Then again, with stuff like this, you're at the mercy of DRAM controller quality, chip quality, trace quality, motherboard design ... all kinds of variables. My experience with unmatched RAM is good, but YMMV.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Did you even read my post? Seriously?

Yes.

a) I'm considering buying Ryzen. For both builds. As such, there are no motherboards launched, thus no QVL lists. At all.

All you said was that you were waiting for the Ryzen launch . . . you never said what it was you were actually buying. Plenty of would-be Intel buyers are also waiting for that event, and they're all going to want DDR4 for their systems.

b) Who's talking about sales or price decreases? I'm talking about the potential for avoiding the predicted price hikes that the entire tech press (and DRAM industry) are projecting due to massive supply shortages/increased demand.

We're talking about the same thing. Prices won't go down. They may go up instead, but they definitely won't go down. I think the hype is a bit overblown on higher-end sticks . . . it's the DDR4-2133 and other marginal products that may become more expensive. If you actually want some higher-bin DIMMs, I do not expect as much of a price increase for them (if any). They'll probably hold steady for awhile. What is more-likely is that the popular kits will go out-of-stock without any significant change in pricing.

What I'm asking for here are opinions on wether to buy now (and risk going off-QVL), or sticking it out (and risk significant RAM price increases). Your post provides none of that.

Fine.

Buy now.

I did. I went out and got some sticks that I knew to be Samsung B-die so I could get the best ICs on the market. In fact, this is what I bought:

http://pcpartpicker.com/product/2ph...-2-x-8gb-ddr4-3733-memory-cmk16gx4m2b3733c17r

Any Corsair memory showing version 4.31 is Samsung B-die. There's a 2x16GB DDR4-3200 kit from them that also features B-die. It's generally easier to get B-die from G.Skill, but their heatspreaders are so damn big.

You're still running the risk of getting RAM that won't show up on someone's QVL list, but then I've bought plenty of RAM from off QVL lists before. Regardless there's a decent chance of high-end and even midrange kits suffering shortages (and possible spot price increases). For example I saw an interesting Patriot DDR4-3400 kit that might be B-die or E-die for $99, and it's on 1-4 week back order. It seems like the most-desirable kits are just going out-of-stock rather than showing up with higher prices due to supply/demand dynamics, which is . . . curious.

 

[rchunter]

The ddr4 that I bought for one of my servers (paid about $600 last september) same ram is selling for over $1100 now.
Not a good time to buy imo.....

 

[DrMrLordX]

The ddr4 that I bought for one of my servers (paid about $600 last september) same ram is selling for over $1100 now.
Not a good time to buy imo.....

What speed was it? If it's DDR4-2133 or so, I can see that happening. That's where the supplies are still strong and the prices are going up. Higher-end products don't seem to be moving up in price . . . instead they're dropping in availability as DRAM supplies shift elsewhere.

 

[rchunter]

What speed was it? If it's DDR4-2133 or so, I can see that happening. That's where the supplies are still strong and the prices are going up. Higher-end products don't seem to be moving up in price . . . instead they're dropping in availability as DRAM supplies shift elsewhere.

They were Samsung 2400mhz rdimm 16gb. I bought 8 sticks.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Okay, makes sense then. Commodity DDR4 is actually going up in price it seems, and I believe that trend will continue.

 

[whm1974]

I would save your money for a new build instead of spending it on such an old system.

 

[rchunter]

Okay, makes sense then. Commodity DDR4 is actually going up in price it seems, and I believe that trend will continue.

I'm just glad I bought when I did.
For desktop ram, and when you only need 16-32gb, it's probably not quite as important timing when to buy.

 

[SlickR12345]

Thing is if you remember the ram shortage a few years back, it hold out for like 4 months, people who bought before did so at already higher prices and than after 4 months ram prices dropped massively, to the point of almost getting free ram sticks.

So its really flip a coin kind of deal, no one can know what prices will be and how long they will stay that way. I mean buying ram now though wouldn't hurt you if you are worried about prices spiking even more.

 

[DrMrLordX]

The present DRAM and NAND shortage is due to demand from the mobile sector overwhelming existing supply. It will end when that demand tapers off or when DRAM/NAND supplies increase. I do not see demand slackening much, especially considering how many phones Samsung had to take off the market recently that will soon be replaced by the next generation.

 

[Valantar]

I would save your money for a new build instead of spending it on such an old system.

Uhm ... the GPU and PSU are 1 year old (Fury X and EVGA G2 750W). As for storage, I have a 840 Pro 256GB and a 850 Evo 500Gb. Except for the parts I'm replacing (motherboard, CPU, RAM), which parts are old? And what exactly would I stand to gain from throwing out ~$800 worth of parts from last year?

 

[Valantar]

Thing is if you remember the ram shortage a few years back, it hold out for like 4 months, people who bought before did so at already higher prices and than after 4 months ram prices dropped massively, to the point of almost getting free ram sticks.

So its really flip a coin kind of deal, no one can know what prices will be and how long they will stay that way. I mean buying ram now though wouldn't hurt you if you are worried about prices spiking even more.

While that's true about what happened back then, the shortage this time is reported to be dramatically worse. Some DRAM makers are retooling fabs to make more profitable NAND instead. Some are in the middle of ramping new production processes, causing output slumps. All the while, smartphones with 4-8GB of RAM are taking off. And while the smartphone market has slowed its growth lately, it's still huge. A 2x increase in DRAM demand from the mobile market is more than enough to eat up pretty much any chips on the market. To add to that, SSDs have become a major consumer of DRAM chips (at least compared to what happened a few years back), and ever-increasing capacities increase DRAM needs for SSDs too.

The only one of these things that can go away quickly is the process ramping one. The others are more or less fixed. And while new fabs are being built, that's a fix several years down the line. What seems most likely is that we'll see a "crash" towards the middle of this year, with things slowly getting better after that. To rectify this situation, we need a combination of new, more dense production processes and new fabs coming online.


My problem: I can't wait with these builds. My own is pretty much being built ASAP (just waiting on Ryzen, really), while my girlfriend's one is being built by summer at the latest. Waiting it out is really not an option. Hence my question: buy now (before prices increase more), or wait until I'm ready to build.

 

[whm1974]

Uhm ... the GPU and PSU are 1 year old (Fury X and EVGA G2 750W). As for storage, I have a 840 Pro 256GB and a 850 Evo 500Gb. Except for the parts I'm replacing (motherboard, CPU, RAM), which parts are old? And what exactly would I stand to gain from throwing out ~$800 worth of parts from last year?

I thought you system was a Core 2 Quad?

 

[Valantar]

I thought you system was a Core 2 Quad?

Yes, and? Is it impossible that I've kept the core of the computer while upgrading everything else? Do you seriously think I would have kept a C2Q desktop as my main PC for close to 9 years while not upgrading a single component? SSDs run just fine on SATA2. The GPU is of course bottlenecked by the CPU, but was bought with a future CPU upgrade in mind (and PCIe 2.0 is no bottleneck at all). There's a reason why I'm asking this specific question, and not creating a "what should I do to upgrade/replace my PC" thread. I try to focus on longevity and future value when upgrading, not shortsighted "what's cool today" thinking (which is why i went C2Q in the first place, rather than the "better for gaming" C2D E8400 back in the day. How many E8400 systems are viable today?). While even Sandy Bridge provided a significant IPC and clock increase compared to my chip, it's not until now that I've actually been able to justify replacing the CPU+mobo+RAM combo when taking performance, cost and waste into consideration. Oh, and I hope that my upgraded platform will last me at least as long. It's not like we've seen many radical developments in CPU performance over the last 4-5-6 years, after all.

 

[whm1974]

Yes, and? Is it impossible that I've kept the core of the computer while upgrading everything else? Do you seriously think I would have kept a C2Q desktop as my main PC for close to 9 years while not upgrading a single component? SSDs run just fine on SATA2. The GPU is of course bottlenecked by the CPU, but was bought with a future CPU upgrade in mind (and PCIe 2.0 is no bottleneck at all). There's a reason why I'm asking this specific question, and not creating a "what should I do to upgrade/replace my PC" thread. I try to focus on longevity and future value when upgrading, not shortsighted "what's cool today" thinking (which is why i went C2Q in the first place, rather than the "better for gaming" C2D E8400 back in the day. How many E8400 systems are viable today?). While even Sandy Bridge provided a significant IPC and clock increase compared to my chip, it's not until now that I've actually been able to justify replacing the CPU+mobo+RAM combo when taking performance, cost and waste into consideration. Oh, and I hope that my upgraded platform will last me at least as long. It's not like we've seen many radical developments in CPU performance over the last 4-5-6 years, after all.

OK you have a good point.