California bullet train cost surges by $2.8 billion: 'Worst-case scenario has happened'

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Nov 8, 2012
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It sounds like something I'd write but I don't recall. It's true enough and a prime reason why the lowest bid should NEVER be accepted. Unrealistically low bids are cancer for any major project and should be tossed if they don't reflect reality. Unless the consequences of a major underbid are the contractor literally going out of business you can rest assured they are making it up.

From the client side scope creep and change orders also wreak havoc with budgets and there is so little concern about cost containment. We probably shouldn't be doing anything that isn't design-build with super rigid cost controls.

Yup, very true. Which is why our government is incompetent. I honestly question if our government has shit for project management experienced folks.

They ALWAYS seem to go with the lowest bid - as if it's just a simple recipe you can plug in and know what the end result is going to be.
 
Nov 8, 2012
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Globally, developed countries are having big population shortages, and immigration is the only thing that is driving growth for almost all the developed countries. Korea, Germany, US. Hell, even China is facing a massive population decline soon.

Perhaps we should try some logical budgetting instead of making things like social security that are (essentially) a pyramid scheme - that is, dependent upon an increasing population boom in order to fund for the top.
 

realibrad

Lifer
Oct 18, 2013
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Perhaps we should try some logical budgetting instead of making things like social security that are (essentially) a pyramid scheme - that is, dependent upon an increasing population boom in order to fund for the top.

I think that puts it too negative. Investment is built upon the same idea, so if we cast out social security for that reason, we will be throwing out other things that we know are useful. But, we will have to confront the problem that the way it is set up now is not going to provide enough funding in the future as population rates decline.

More than Social Security, we have other things in society private and public that are built upon the idea of future population growth. Immigration helps, but, typically new immigrants pay less in taxes and would not be enough to fund a system like Social Security even if they are a net benefit to the overall economy.
 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
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He's just letting you know that he is unable to answer your question at the present time.

How could I answer a question about what ticket prices would be for a train that is not yet built and probably never will be? If the experience of the Acela “high-speed” train in the Northeast Corridor is any indication the train tickets will likely be more expensive than plane flights. And that’s before taking into account that they have huge federal government subsidies to the train. The one area where train sometimes comes out ahead is in transit time because New Yorkers have to travel so far to get to JFK airport whereas the train station is downtown. Thinking the train will be cheaper is hugely motivated thinking.
 
Dec 10, 2005
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How could I answer a question about what ticket prices would be for a train that is not yet built and probably never will be? If the experience of the Acela “high-speed” train in the Northeast Corridor is any indication the train tickets will likely be more expensive than plane flights. And that’s before taking into account that they have huge federal government subsidies to the train. The one area where train sometimes comes out ahead is in transit time because New Yorkers have to travel so far to get to JFK airport whereas the train station is downtown. Thinking the train will be cheaper is hugely motivated thinking.
And airlines aren't heavily subsidized?
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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How could I answer a question about what ticket prices would be for a train that is not yet built and probably never will be? If the experience of the Acela “high-speed” train in the Northeast Corridor is any indication the train tickets will likely be more expensive than plane flights. And that’s before taking into account that they have huge federal government subsidies to the train. The one area where train sometimes comes out ahead is in transit time because New Yorkers have to travel so far to get to JFK airport whereas the train station is downtown. Thinking the train will be cheaper is hugely motivated thinking.

Firstly the NEC is profitable, very much so. What really loses money are the long distance routes across the country. Conservatives love to bash these but will never cut them because even if it sounds good lots of GOP reps realize that the services run through their districts and doing so would be immensely unpopular.

The government most certainly subsidizes air travel in a range of ways. Billions in grants to airpots for construction. Immense defense industry contracts prop up aircraft makers like Boeing. Hundreds of millions of dollars in annual direct subsidies to provide service to places that can't support it (Essential Air Service). Etc.
 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
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Firstly the NEC is profitable, very much so. What really loses money are the long distance routes across the country. Conservatives love to bash these but will never cut them because even if it sounds good lots of GOP reps realize that the services run through their districts and doing so would be immensely unpopular.

The government most certainly subsidizes air travel in a range of ways. Billions in grants to airpots for construction. Immense defense industry contracts prop up aircraft makers like Boeing. Hundreds of millions of dollars in annual direct subsidies to provide service to places that can't support it (Essential Air Service). Etc.

Okay one side has said HSR tickets are likely to be more expensive (or at the very least not cheaper) than plane tickets due to high construction costs the state will presumably want to recoup in addition to simple high operating costs. Your side hasn’t said why HSR tickets would be cheaper (an actual causal reason not “just because”) or that California will simply eat the construction costs and not seek to not run an operating loss going forward.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Okay one side has said HSR tickets are likely to be more expensive (or at the very least not cheaper) than plane tickets due to high construction costs the state will presumably want to recoup in addition to simple high operating costs. Your side hasn’t said why HSR tickets would be cheaper (an actual causal reason not “just because”) or that California will simply eat the construction costs and not seek to not run an operating loss going forward.

This is kind of gibberish. You made claims about existing rail service that are in direct opposition to the actual facts.

But anywhoo:

Will CAHSR incur an operating loss? I really doubt it.

Will it be cheaper than flying? Maybe, maybe not. At peak times probably not because the service will be in demand just like happens on the NEC.

Is CAHSR bad because the cost of construction may not be paid back through ticket revenues in the near or medium term? Nope. Billions upon billions are continually spent on road/air infrastructure annually without this assurance. Also the ROW will last for easily 100 years or more. The northeast still uses tons of assets built out in the Gilded Age on a daily basis.
 
Jun 18, 2000
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Rail transportation is held to a ridiculous standard. It must be faster and cheaper than driving, and it must be profitable. The next highway project that "pays for itself" will be the first.
 
Reactions: K1052
Jul 9, 2009
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So the high speed rails promoters and supporters lied about how much it would cost, lied about how long it would take, lied about where it would go, lied about how fast it would travel and have systematically lied about every single facet and fact about this project?

A Billion dollar cut well earned and hopefully lawsuits to get what the Federal government have already paid and jail time for the fraudsters that foisted the project on misinformed California voters.




https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...unding-california-high-speed-rail/3697609002/
 

nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
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So the high speed rails promoters and supporters lied about how much it would cost, lied about how long it would take, lied about where it would go, lied about how fast it would travel and have systematically lied about every single facet and fact about this project?

A Billion dollar cut well earned and hopefully lawsuits to get what the Federal government have already paid and jail time for the fraudsters that foisted the project on misinformed California voters.




https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...unding-california-high-speed-rail/3697609002/
You're projecting again, collaborator.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
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So the high speed rails promoters and supporters lied about how much it would cost, lied about how long it would take, lied about where it would go, lied about how fast it would travel and have systematically lied about every single facet and fact about this project?

A Billion dollar cut well earned and hopefully lawsuits to get what the Federal government have already paid and jail time for the fraudsters that foisted the project on misinformed California voters.




https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...unding-california-high-speed-rail/3697609002/
All anyone needed to do was look at the bay bridge to understand how California would make this the most expensive train in the world. The only reason the one small piece of it is being built is so that our politicians don't look like complete fools, and face billions in law suits from vendors that have already spent money gearing up for the project.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
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So the high speed rails promoters and supporters lied about how much it would cost, lied about how long it would take, lied about where it would go, lied about how fast it would travel and have systematically lied about every single facet and fact about this project?

A Billion dollar cut well earned and hopefully lawsuits to get what the Federal government have already paid and jail time for the fraudsters that foisted the project on misinformed California voters.




https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...unding-california-high-speed-rail/3697609002/

It's not like they told 10,000 lies in two years, is it?
 
Reactions: nickqt

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,865
34,813
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All anyone needed to do was look at the bay bridge to understand how California would make this the most expensive train in the world. The only reason the one small piece of it is being built is so that our politicians don't look like complete fools, and face billions in law suits from vendors that have already spent money gearing up for the project.

California didn't manage the project correctly however a large part of the problem was how the federal funds were set up to be disbursed. CA was pressured politically to start construction in the Central Valley first (as a sop to those local interests) and on an unrealistic schedule. So that's part of how the current mess got started.

Really anybody else would've started with the worst/most expensive parts first which means going over Altamont or Pacheco (possibly both) and the approach into the greater LA area. As those progressed the authority should have been doing the land purchase process in the valley in parallel so that construction could start efficiently there later, which became a major problem with the current scheme.
 

Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
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It's not like they told 10,000 lies in two years, is it?
Trump’s lies have no bearing on the gross incompetence in managing this project. When Trump is out office or behind bars, there still won’t be a high speed train as promised and within budget.
 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
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Trump’s lies have no bearing on the gross incompetence in managing this project. When Trump is out office or behind bars, there still won’t be a high speed train as promised and within budget.

The CA train to nowhere is the left’s version of Trump’s wall. Expensive, pointless, and only a small portion will ever get built.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
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Trump’s lies have no bearing on the gross incompetence in managing this project. When Trump is out office or behind bars, there still won’t be a high speed train as promised and within budget.

Trumpster alleged that that CA authorities lied about the project. I was just trying to put that in perspective.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
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You're clairvoyant, too?
It's already a done deal. Our mighty railway that will showcase California's forward thinking and technical savvy will be less that two hundred miles long, spanning the gap from nowhere to nowhere in speed and comfort.
 

Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
14,698
1,909
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Trumpster alleged that that CA authorities lied about the project. I was just trying to put that in perspective.
I expect it would be fairly easy to determine who is lying and who is telling the truth as it relates to California meeting the project requirements to secure federal funding.

Politicians like to talk about infrastructure. When is the last time our government was able to deliver anything on schedule and below budget?
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
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They haven't even laid any rail yet, have they?
Not even close. They have already blown the budget on moving utility's out of the way, so everything appears to be right on track for a clusterfuck of biblical proportions.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,865
34,813
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Not even close. They have already blown the budget on moving utility's out of the way, so everything appears to be right on track for a clusterfuck of biblical proportions.

Putting in the running rail is one of the latter things that gets done. They've been doing a ton of structure work in the valley.
 
Reactions: feralkid
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