California bullet train cost surges by $2.8 billion: 'Worst-case scenario has happened'

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Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,329
126
I'm guessing that the cost for labor and the regulation cost in China are VERY Different than the USA.

Feel free to correct me if I am wrong. This is a comparison of apples and rocks.

It does seem like things are vastly more expensive to build these days. We built the interstate system, over 40,000 miles and 55,000 bridges, for roughly $500 billion adjusted for inflation (2015 dollar).
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
exactly which posters here support north korea? name names, link posts. put up or shut up.

Well, anybody who isn't screaming kill! Kill! KILL! at the top of their lungs is obviously a commie sympathizer. Everybody knows this.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,367
2,375
136
Which I think is high no matter who ends up in office except for a hardcore conservative which probably isn't going to happen. If the project is truncated it will be a SF to Bakersfield system. It will probably cost about $10-15B do the SJ-Cowchilla segment, mostly dependent on the Pacheco tunnel. The geology is unfortunately pretty shit for tunnels but the often suggested alternative of running over the Altamont pass has it's own also expensive (but different) problems.

The LA end of this thing is a wreck unfortunately.
L.A. Times had a good article about this a few days ago.
An official close to the project acknowledged that the increasing costs render essentially impossible the current plan for a $21 billion San Jose to Central Valley starter system. Even before the cost increase, there was a funding shortfall: a plan to borrow $5.2 billion against future greenhouse gas fees fell apart, leaving the agency with a checkbook containing only about $16 billion of the needed $21 billion.
So even with cap-and-trade funds that are earmarked (but not guaranteed AFAIK) for stage 1 and the woefully unrealistic plan of a few years ago, the funding is well short of what's needed to get to San Jose.

source (behind paywall): http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-bullet-train-crisis-20180121-story.html

FWIW if the supposedly easiest and cheapest portion (Fresno to Madera) is now $10.6B, how is SJ to Chowchilla gonna be under $15B?
 

rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
4,389
3,120
146
We do have a poster here who supports North Korea. He hasn't posted in this thread yet. I'll have to see if I can recall his name.

I think it starts with a d? ETA... figured it out. Dcal430.

There was AzN too until he got banned. I don’t recall if either were left wingers tho.
 
Reactions: IronWing

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,884
34,847
136
L.A. Times had a good article about this a few days ago.

So even with cap-and-trade funds that are earmarked (but not guaranteed AFAIK) for stage 1 and the woefully unrealistic plan of a few years ago, the funding is well short of what's needed to get to San Jose.

source (behind paywall): http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-bullet-train-crisis-20180121-story.html

FWIW if the supposedly easiest and cheapest portion (Fresno to Madera) is now $10.6B, how is SJ to Chowchilla gonna be under $15B?

Madera to Wasco is over $10B. Cost will not only depend on the tunnel but the route selected north of Gilroy where there is already a UP right of way that might be used.
 

Puffnstuff

Lifer
Mar 9, 2005
16,048
4,807
136
I'm also curious as to how they plan to implement this project. With available land at a premium how will they obtain the resources to construct the tracks? High speed rail also means that there can be no level crossings anywhere along the route so it has to either be in a tunnel or elevated both of which add to the cost.

This is why Amtrak's Acela is confined to the NE corridor and not available nationally. Could you imagine a high speed train striking some idiot stuck on the tracks? What a disaster that would be.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
20,656
5,346
136
I'm also curious as to how they plan to implement this project. With available land at a premium how will they obtain the resources to construct the tracks? High speed rail also means that there can be no level crossings anywhere along the route so it has to either be in a tunnel or elevated both of which add to the cost.

This is why Amtrak's Acela is confined to the NE corridor and not available nationally. Could you imagine a high speed train striking some idiot stuck on the tracks? What a disaster that would be.
I hadn't thought about that, though it's pretty obvious. I've seen the system referred to as "moderate speed rail" twice now. Perhaps portions of the system will operate at lower speed?
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,884
34,847
136
I hadn't thought about that, though it's pretty obvious. I've seen the system referred to as "moderate speed rail" twice now. Perhaps portions of the system will operate at lower speed?

CAHSR will use upgraded Caltrain tracks from SJ to SF. Some grade crossings are being eliminated (closed, underpass, viaducts) but a some will remain. Top speed on this segment will be limited to 110mph.
 
Jul 9, 2009
10,723
2,064
136
New costs, slower time line. What a winner.
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-bullet-train-cost-increase-20180309-story.html


"The price of the California bullet train project jumped sharply Friday when the state rail authority announced that the cost of connecting Los Angeles to San Francisco would be $77.3 billion and could rise as high as $98.1 billion — an uptick of at least $13 billion from estimates two years ago.

The rail authority also said the earliest trains could operate on a partial system between San Francisco and Bakersfield would be 2029 — four years later than the previous projection. The full system would not begin operating until 2033."


In case you wonder how it ever got passed. They lied about it and then Attorney General Brown allowed those lies to stand.

https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_1A,_High-Speed_Rail_Act_(2008)
 

Thebobo

Lifer
Jun 19, 2006
18,592
7,673
136
New costs, slower time line. What a winner.
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-bullet-train-cost-increase-20180309-story.html


"The price of the California bullet train project jumped sharply Friday when the state rail authority announced that the cost of connecting Los Angeles to San Francisco would be $77.3 billion and could rise as high as $98.1 billion — an uptick of at least $13 billion from estimates two years ago.

The rail authority also said the earliest trains could operate on a partial system between San Francisco and Bakersfield would be 2029 — four years later than the previous projection. The full system would not begin operating until 2033."


In case you wonder how it ever got passed. They lied about it and then Attorney General Brown allowed those lies to stand.

https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_1A,_High-Speed_Rail_Act_(2008)

I actually never wondered because that's not a state I live in so I am not going to get in a rage about it unless it goes through a Park or something like that.
 

tynopik

Diamond Member
Aug 10, 2004
5,245
500
126
Among the most challenging is the cost of about 36 miles of tunnels through mountainous Southern California, which could range anywhere from $26 billion to $45 billion, according to the report.

this is why it's hard to take hyperloop seriously. if it costs a billion a mile just to do the tunnel, it just isn't practical

maybe that's just some exceptionally difficult terrain, maybe the Boring Company can revolutionize tunnel costs, but until something dramatic changes, it's not going anywhere
 
Reactions: Ken g6
Jul 9, 2009
10,723
2,064
136
People hate on California.

Reason #1:. JEALOUSY.
The supporters of Proposition 1A, including then Attorney General Jerry Brown, the California official in charge of honesty in the Propositions. Deliberately lied to the California voters about how much the train would cost, where the train would actually be going, the performance of the train and how long it would take to build it. They lied to get it passed.

I'm glad to see you're fine with it since you bought it and someday you'll pay for it.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
20,656
5,346
136
This fiasco will cost at least 200 billion by the time it's done. But on the plus side, we'll be the only state with a moderate speed rail system for rich people. Poor people will still have to drive, or take a cheaper, faster, plane.
 
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