Can MS integrate HD-DVD into the 360 now?

[TecHNooB]

It's close to christmas break and I'm debating whether or not to buy a 360. There's only 1 primary concern. If MS ends up releasing a new version of the 360 a few months later with integrated HD-DVD, then I'd be so out of luck. Given how cheap HD-DVD players are now, this is certainly a possibility. However, there is one good reason why MS couldn't do this. They'd be abandoning their current user base. That or they would have to issue free HD-DVDs due to the massive number of complaints. And even with the additional space, game companies would never put games on HD-DVD b because on a small number of 360 users will actually have HD-DVD players. So what do you guys think?

 

[destrekor]

they could easily integrate an HD DVD drive into the 360. however, games would never likely use HD DVD due to how it would alienate the entire install base as of now. theoretically, they could integrate it and use it for games, but like I said, just under 9m people would not be very happy.

 

[Thraxen]

I think they could do it in some sort of new Elite model... but I think it's a safe bet they won't be allowing any games to be put on HD-DVD. That would simply be a horrible decision.

 

[nycxandy]

They won't be doing this for a long time, if at all.

 

[DaveSimmons]

It's not going to happen. MS is promising shareholders profitability and sending out 10 million free HD-DVD players won't help with that.

Edit: Neither would adding the HD-DVD even just for movie playback, since they'd have to either raise prices (for both hardware and patent licenses) or eat the cost and increase losses. Also, current HD-DVD drives might read regular DVDs too slow for the in-game streaming games require (not sure either way).

It's likely that the next-next generation xbox 3.0 will have the winner of the format wars if there is one by then, or even a dual-format reader if they are cheap enough. That's years off though.

The only upcoming change after Falcon is to move the video chip to 65nm to match the CPU, late next year.

 

[blurredvision]

Originally posted by: nycxandy
They won't be doing this for a long time, if at all.

Ya, don't wait for it. And even if they did integrate the HD-DVD drive inside the console, all future 360 games would still be produced on regular dual-layer DVD's. Consoles thrive on their standardization, introducing media that required a certain version of the console would be very, very bad for business.

 

[RandomFool]

I could maybe see it in a new version of the elite (with wi-fi!) but not anytime soon like christmas next year. Even then it would be strictly for movie playback. Most likely it won't be included until next-gen.

 

[Queasy]

Maybe in the Xbox 720. Not in the 360.

 

[randay]

not gonna happen. in fact it'd be bad for them if they did it.

 

[Schadenfroh]

The optional accessory is the way to go anyway since you cannot make games on HD-DVD for the xbox 360 (due to the alienation reasons stated above).


Maybe making an upgradeable drive so you could swap them out rather than having the current external one.

 

[Queasy]

Originally posted by: Schadenfroh
The optional accessory is the way to go anyway since you cannot make games on HD-DVD for the xbox 360 (due to the alienation reasons stated above).


Maybe making an upgradeable drive so you could swap them out rather than having the current external one.

It isn't just for the alienation reason though. While the HD DVD drive offers plenty of space, the read times for gaming were way too slow. I'm not sure when (or already) they will release faster drives. But I'm sure they won't be cheap.

 

[gorcorps]

If they did, it wouldn't be any cheaper than a separate 360 + HD addon.

 

[Gunther]

I am pretty sure they are going to integrate the two into a new elite 360, but I doubt it will happen until something like end of 2009.

 

[bunnyfubbles]

Don't worry about it. If they ever do integrate it, it would only be for playing HD-DVD movies, they'd never allow game developers to use anything other than DVD9.

 

[Modeps]

Why would they integrate it? Microsoft didnt create the HDDVD format, and has no real stake in making sure it succeeds. With Sony, they DID create the format, and therefore will be counting every PS3 sold as a new Blu-Ray player in peoples' homes.

It honestly really sucks for the consumer that there are 2 formats. If there was just one, I could see MS utilizing that tech instead of just for movies, but for games too... but we'll probably only start seeing a clear winner in the war in about 2 years.

In short, dont wait.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Microsoft is very invested in HD-DVD. It would be a smart move for them to integrate the HD-DVD drive only for HD-DVD playback.

 

[lazybum131]

I could see MS integrating an HD-DVD player into the Elite if several conditions are met. First, HD-DVD software sales pick up in Q1 next year because of the cheaper standalone players sold this holiday, cementing HD-DVD as here to stay. Second, cost of bare HD-DVD drives have by that point, been substantially lowered, where MS can negotiate to get the drive with a relatively small increase in cost compared to the DVD-ROM. I.e. they can negotiate it as only $20-30 more per unit, no idea if that's feasible (perhaps they can convince Toshiba to subsidize to get a similar boost for HD-DVD as PS3 was to Blu-ray). I believe this may be reasonable as Toshiba has stated earlier this year that they intend to equip all their laptops with HD-DVD drives next year (link), and the cost would have to be fairly low to not cause too big of a price increase for these notebooks.

Reasons why MS would integrate HD-DVD into the Elite are to counter potential PS3 price drops, and the much stronger and proven PS3 game lineup in 2008.

How this would all work out as I see it:

Shortly after the holidays, MS announces that the bundling of two games for the Pro and Elite is to be discontinued. Existing stocks clear out as people don't want to miss the bundles.

Assuming GTA4 releases in 'early' 2008, MS plans the clearing out of the holiday bundles with the announcement of price drops. The price drop will occur for all models either a month before, or the month that GTA4 releases. I see the price drops as $30-40 ($239-249), $50 ($299), and $30 ($419) for the Arcade, Pro, and Elite respectively. The price difference between the Pro and Elite has increased to $120.

Die shrinks and cost reductions go as planned and Jasper has a 45nm Xenon CPU and 65nm Xenos GPU that rolls out around August 2008. With the (hopefully) big decrease in power consumption and heat, this turns out to be a rather significant design change. Some potential changes I see are: (1) built-in Wi-Fi, making it easier for customers to join the Xbox Live userbase and therefore increase potential revenue. Also, puts it on parity with Wii and PS3 which already have wireless. (2) redesigned cooling system, perhaps with a single larger fan that's quieter, (3) optical drive insulated/decoupled from the casing to decrease the noise, (4) slot-load optical drive, again, in keeping with the Wii and PS3, and (5) integrated power supply, if the physical size remains about the same, making it more transportable.

With this redesign, the prices stay the same, but the Elite's price difference is justified with the inclusion of the HD-DVD player. The larger hard drive and now HD-DVD player become very compelling reasons for someone to choose the Elite over the Premium. But for those who don't value HD video yet, or are still waiting for an end to the format war or cheap dual-format players, the Arcade and Pro are much more affordable option and better value with the extra features like wi-fi.

Now heading into Holiday 2008, it can go two ways. If the 360 is doing well against the PS3, and/or major PS3 games have been delayed until 2009, MS does the same thing it did this year; bundle a game or two but keep the price the same. If it's the opposite, have a second round of price drops in the beginning of November, similar to what PS3 did this year. So drop Arcade at or near $200, Pro to $250, and Elite below $400.