Canadian Federal Election 2015

[Spungo]

In 2006-07, the Conservatives inherited a [Liberal] surplus of $13.8 billion — which they turned into a deficit of $5.8 billion within two years.

So much fail.
2006-2007 was the very peak of the largest global financial bubble in history.
2 years later, 2009, was the very bottom of the financial crisis.
This is textbook cherry picking.

Harper doesn't really deserve any credit or blame for the performance of the economy as a whole. This is true for almost all politicians unless they do something really stupid. Canada's economy is very strongly tied to natural resources, and it's an export economy. If the price of oil crashes, Canada's economy crashes. If the price of oil surges, Canada's economy surges. When oil was $150 per barrel, the Canadian dollar was worth more than the US dollar. I remember this very well because there were tons of Canadians coming to Washington to buy cars. A car that cost $30,000 in the US might cost $50,000 in Canada. Then oil crashed and that completely stopped. In March 2009, the same month the S&P 500 bottomed, the Canadian dollar was worth $0.78. Cars were no longer cheaper in the US. Was that Harper's fault? Not really. He doesn't control the price of oil.

The value of the Canadian dollar almost mirrors the value of a natural resource company I'm keeping a close eye on. Open these in 2 windows and see if they look similar:
Canadian dollar
Teck Resources (procuder of copper, zinc, coal, other stuff)

Regardless of who wins this election, Canada's economy will not recover until commodity prices recover. Who knows how long that will take. According to Teck Resources (listen to the conference call), China's demand for coal started decreasing in Q4 of 2013, and it's still decreasing. We haven't seen the bottom yet.

 

[cbrunny]

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/c...ith-liberals-but-three-way-tie-in-quebec-poll

Mainstreet doesn't have the best reputation - I think they're still pretty new, relatively speaking - but a poll is a poll. Pretty interesting article. Basically says that a Liberal win is well within reach because NDP support is sliding in some particularly key ridings, meaning a CPC win in those ridings is also very unlikely.

 

[Victorian Gray]

Congratulations to a brand new citizen (and I'm betting I know who she *won't* be voting for :biggrin

[Zunera Ishaq holds her citizenship certificate after swearing the oath on Friday afternoon. She started wearing a niqab at age 15, against her family's wishes. (Sylvia Thomson/CBC)]

"Afterward, in an interview with CBC News, Ishaq said it meant a lot for her to finally get Canadian citizenship.

"It actually confirmed my belief in the justice system of ... Canada," she said.
During the ceremony, Ishaq said, her affection for her new country caused her to well up.

"I was feeling pretty much that love which I already have in my, within myself for Canada. And you know, the same feelings as I was feeling in the oath, that definitely this is the country to whom I have to be loyal."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/zunera-ishaq-niqab-ban-citizenship-oath-1.3257762

 

[Whiskey16]

Yes, Victorian Gray, spot on.

Beyond fiscal, scientific, and trade mismanagement, beyond any reasonable doubt, Harper's Conservatives are left without any respectable moral authority to govern:

Open letter regarding Conservative Party campaign tactics


The following letter has been signed by 587 Canadian academics, condemning the tactics being employed by the Conservative Party of Canada in the current federal election campaign. It will appear in newspapers tomorrow, but there is no room in print to reproduce all of the signatures. So we are making the full list available here:

We are a diverse group of academics with different political views and different political allegiances. We are united by a common interest in the integrity of democratic processes and a concern about the ugly and dangerous turn we have recently witnessed in the election campaign. In democratic electoral politics there is an ethical line that distinguishes spirited partisan strategy from cynical tactics that betray the values of mutual respect and toleration that lie at the heart of civil democratic discourse. Honourable politicians do not cross that line even when they think doing so will be politically advantageous. Disreputable politicians ignore the line when they find it convenient to do so.

The Conservative Party under Stephen Harper has already come perilously close to this line by suggesting that religion is an appropriate basis to select refugees and by fanning fears of terrorism as a pretext for revoking citizenship from some Canadians. Distinguishing ‘old-stock’ Canadians from new ones was also divisive and problematic. Increasingly, the Conservatives seem to have been opting for a particularly nasty form of “wedge politics”.

However, by injecting the inflammatory rhetoric of ‘barbaric cultural practices’ into the current campaign, the Conservative Party has flagrantly crossed the line. The repeated use of this phrase along with a proposed tip line to root out undesirables are cynically calculated to distract and divide citizens by insinuating that some law abiding and peaceful members of the community are freedom-hating barbarians who threaten Canadian society. The Conservatives know that Canada faces no such threat and that the vast majority of citizens, irrespective of their religious commitments or cultural backgrounds, embrace the basic rights and liberties upon which our democracy is based. By conjuring up a phantom menace to the country and implying that some immigrants and religious minorities are enemies, the Conservatives hope to pit Canadians against one another. Like many sophisticated forms of vicious propaganda, the invocation of barbarism is meant to create fear and anxiety rather than to identify a real problem.
We enjoy the rule of law in Canada and it requires the equal application of the law. Those who break the law should be treated within a common system of criminal justice. A special mechanism that targets some minorities for extra scrutiny is as unnecessary as it is odious. The devious strategists who have devised this campaign know that their objectives are not well served by employing racist or anti-religious epithets, so they ask us to imagine unspecified but supposedly real barbarians. So we are encouraged to demonize those who are different from ourselves and whose religious or cultural practices we do not share or understand. In the present context, this is hate mongering, and it has no place in Canadian democracy.

We do not deny that there is room to discuss and debate how contemporary democracies should respond to religious, cultural and linguistic pluralism. Indeed, Canadian legal and political theory is at the forefront of exploring such matters. But a common point of departure for these debates and discussions is a commitment to civility, decency and toleration. Toleration does not require that one like or endorse the cultural or religious practices of others, but it does require that we refrain from insulting the dignity of those with whom we disagree. The Conservatives have shown contempt for a politics of mutual respect. We condemn the unethical Conservative strategy that brings shame to Canadian politics. We hope that Canadians will join us in repudiating the politics of hate. Instead let us embrace a nobler vision of civil discourse that is truly oriented to achieving the common good for all Canadians.

 

[Whiskey16]

As far as the TPP goes? Any expected composition of parliament will pass it -- bad deal or not. A deal has been reached. Ineptly, Harper negotiated with a weak and rushed hand -- turning over far too much without reciprocity. Yet, the deal is done and it will be ratified in the fear of the costs being higher not accepting what has been signed away and being left out of the worlds largest trading bloc....

A few nights ago, the leading story is how he's already lied about how much of the auto-parts industry will soon be opened up to states even outside of the TPP zone... His numbers don't jive with the leaks. While the corrupting charge is that his dissolved government is withholding the true figures:

Auto-sector protection under TPP deal less than Ottawa touted

Steven Chase
OTTAWA — The Globe and Mail
Published Thursday, Oct. 08, 2015

The Canadian government has omitted a key detail from its public explanation of what would change for this country’s vital auto sector under the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement.

And pressure is building on Ottawa to release the full text of this massive Pacific Rim deal before voters cast their ballots on Oct. 11 [SIC 19].

..

“Just in terms of thresholds, we are no lower than 40 [per cent] on anything and 45 [per cent] on most, which is a considerable improvement over an earlier understanding between a couple of other partners,” Mr. Harper said at a news conference on Oct. 5.

However, some components will have local content thresholds as low as 35 per cent. This means 65 per cent of the content could come from countries outside the TPP zone.

Then onto the dairy industry. No free trade there. The USA isn't an example of a free market and gets access to dump product, selling to market for well under the cost of production, and to handily undercut Canadian domestic production. Canada has apparently sold out to accept the dumping of below cost-to-produce dairy products of the heavily socialist and government subsidised US dairy industry (to the tune of around USA government hand-holding funds covering ~60% of agricultural costs):

HUFFPOST Business

The critics of [Canadian dairy] supply management do not factor these hidden taxpayer dollars into the cost of a litre of milk. In Canada that is not the case. There is no hidden subsidy provided by Canadian taxpayers to dairy farmers.

By comparison, U.S. subsidies to dairy producers represent about 40% of American dairy farmer incomes, when it reaches them. These subsidies come directly from taxpayers' pockets. Without that hidden support American dairy products would be much more costly for consumers, and much more expensive than the equivalent Canadian product.

Further, a 2009 report, "The Economic Impacts of Immigration on US Dairy Farms," written by Economics professors from Texas A & M University, suggests that US dairy is further subsidized by foreign workers, primarily Mexican, through lower wages paid to them than would be the case in Canada. In fact, they hypothesize that if all immigrant dairy labourers were barred from entry into the US, retail prices of milk would rise by 61%!

For U.S. farmers, subsidies the best cash crop

BARRIE McKenna
OTTAWA — The Globe and Mail

There are few places in the world where farming is a truly free market activity -- least of all the United States.

A new report finds that $62 of every $100 that U.S. farmers earn comes from one level of government or another. In 2009, that added up to a staggering $180.8-billion (U.S.).

"The U.S. continues to provide massive -- sometimes unreported to the World Trade Organization -- support at the federal, state and local government level to U.S. agriculture," said Ottawa trade consultant Peter Clark, who wrote the report for the Dairy Farmers of Canada.

The report identified a number of indirect subsidies to U.S. farmers via programs for irrigation, export credits, nutrition food aid and loan guarantees.

Nearly $20-billion of the $180.8-billion flows to U.S. dairy farmers, or fully half of their revenues, according to Mr. Clark.

..

Canada has been shut out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership talks, apparently because it refuses to put these "supply managed" sectors on the table. The United States, Australia and New Zealand have long pushed for Canada to dismantle its tariff regime.

Even without the full text available, apparently an unevenly bad deal to Canadian industry and trade, that the dissolved Harper government felt rushed to sign for their need to sign and promote such accomplishment in the finals weeks of the federal campaign. OOh, the shiny..look what we did! No don't look so close! Niqabs!

 

[Whiskey16]

..and then at the end of the past week, the Conservatives caught out by a leak from Citizenship and Immigration where the Prime Minister's Office ordered a department halt to the processing of Syrian refugees, apparently for political interference in the selection of appropriate classes of people..:

the Globe and Mail

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper says his government prioritizes vulnerable religious and ethnic groups for refugee processing because they are being targeted by Islamic State for “extermination,” even as critics accused his government of crafting a discriminatory policy.

..

Mr. Harper was responding to a Globe and Mail story that revealed Canada aims to prioritize some Syrian refugees for processing based on characteristics that include their religion, the age of their children and whether they’ve run a business. The criteria, known as areas of focus, which had never been disclosed publicly, also favour those who speak English or French fluently; those residing outside refugee camps; and women between the ages of 20 and 40 who are victims of violence. Most of these categories also require refugees to have family in Canada, among other criteria.

This week The Globe also revealed that Mr. Harper ordered Citizenship and Immigration Canada to stop processing Syrian refugees referred by the United Nations, a halt that lasted several weeks in the midst of a global crisis.

Paul Champ, an Ottawa human rights lawyer, said the refugees referred to Canada by the UN agency are all vulnerable, and by choosing to prioritize some and not others the government could be running afoul of the law.

“My view is that it’s clearly unconstitutional,” Mr. Champ said. “When we are choosing from that group of refugees, we need to do so in a manner that’s compliant with our constitution and our charter of rights … Why are certain ones being processed as a priority? It has to be legitimately connected to the individual being at greater risk.

“To try to differentiate between certain groups being more at risk in the context of the Syrian war makes no sense.”

The groups are all vulnerable, and have all been determined to be vulnerable by the UN refugee agency, Mr. Champ said.

..

Amir Attaran, a professor of law at the University of Ottawa, said it appears that these government policies are using attributes such as age and religion as selection criteria. “Any such distinction of race or age or religion, these are all prohibited under the law and we would be rightly offended if it were written to be against black people. But from a legal perspective we must be equally offended when it’s written against the wrong religion or the wrong age,” Prof. Attaran said.

The Harper government, yet again caught being in fowl of the law and playing political interference for inappropriately selecting refugees that are suitable to play for Harper's base....

Be damned to those in need. Anything dirty deeds to retain power.

 

[Victorian Gray]

Well, took advantage of the advanced polls and voted Sat. afternoon. The polling station was busy but no waiting. A couple of the workers mentioned that it had been a busy day.

No matter who you support folks, get out and vote. If you don't use it, eventually you will lose it.

 

[Number1]

Congratulations to a brand new citizen (and I'm betting I know who she *won't* be voting for :biggrin

[Zunera Ishaq holds her citizenship certificate after swearing the oath on Friday afternoon. She started wearing a niqab at age 15, against her family's wishes. (Sylvia Thomson/CBC)]

"Afterward, in an interview with CBC News, Ishaq said it meant a lot for her to finally get Canadian citizenship.

"It actually confirmed my belief in the justice system of ... Canada," she said.
During the ceremony, Ishaq said, her affection for her new country caused her to well up.

"I was feeling pretty much that love which I already have in my, within myself for Canada. And you know, the same feelings as I was feeling in the oath, that definitely this is the country to whom I have to be loyal."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/zunera-ishaq-niqab-ban-citizenship-oath-1.3257762

Foreigners dictating how we should run our country. Revolting.

 

[Spungo]

Foreigners dictating how we should run our country. Revolting.

It seems like the system is working as intended. A person challenged the rules, and Canadians agreed to change the rules.

It's nice that people are allowed to keep their own weird traditions as long as they're not hurting anyone.

 

[desy]

Yep non Christians are force to observe Christmas and Easter where only 20% of the population observe regular church services
I'm sure the natives were surprised they were forded to observe foreign customs considering they ended up in Christian residential schools

 

[KMFJD]

Foreigners dictating how we should run our country. Revolting.

Yup, the native americans have been saying that for centuries....

 

[Spungo]

Yup, the native americans have been saying that for centuries....

What happened to the natives is a perfect example of what conservatives are saying - you SHOULD be afraid of foreigners. They'll come in, kill your people, steal your land, put you on reservations, force you to be Christian, etc.

Letting foreigners in was probably the biggest mistake the natives ever made.

 

[desy]

Well they didn't exactly let them in
Small pox from the dirty foreign devils weakened them to the point they couldn't effectively resist considering most of them died
Woulda been a different story

"After first contacts with Europeans and Africans, some believe that the death of 90–95% of the native population of the New World was caused by Old World diseases.[37] It is suspected that smallpox was the chief culprit and responsible for killing nearly all of the native inhabitants of the Americas. For more than 200 years, this disease affected all new world populations, mostly without intentional European transmission, from contact in the early 16th century to until possibly as late as the French and Indian Wars (1754–1767"

 

[Spungo]

Well they didn't exactly let them in
Small pox from the dirty foreign devils weakened them to the point they couldn't effectively resist considering most of them died
Woulda been a different story

Didn't people scream racism when republicans wanted immigrants to be screened for diseases?

 

[Victorian Gray]

Foreigners dictating how we should run our country. Revolting.

A brand new citizen proclaiming how much she loves her adopted country and how happy she is to become a citizen and how much it means to her is, in your eyes, 'some foreigner dictating how we should run our country'?

Something is revolting alright and it isn't her.

 

[Victorian Gray]

Nice to see that so many folks voted over the long weekend. Apparently advance polling was up 71% over the 2011 election advance polls. 3.6 million people came out to vote. :thumbsup:

"Elections Canada says an estimated 3.6 million people voted during four days of advance polls running from Friday to Thanksgiving Monday, representing a 71 per cent increase over three days of advance polling in 2011.

The agency estimated that 1.2 million people voted on Thanksgiving Monday, 767,000 on Sunday, 780,000 on Saturday and 850,000 on Friday."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ele...ion-votes-cast-during-advance-polls-1.3269393

 

[cbrunny]

http://www.lispop.ca/seat-projectio...ario-swing-points-liberal-minority-government

Liberals - 128
Cpc - 122
Ndp - 84
Bloc - 3
Green - 1

 

[Whiskey16]

Foreigners dictating how we should run our country. Revolting.

That's pretty damn revolting by you.

An immigrant proud of the laws and country that protects us all...

Rather than petty, vindictive, xenophobic, autocratic bigots such as the likes of you and Harper (a man who decades ago led a charge against RCMP Sikhs wearing turbans...).

Number1? Are you a Canadian who respects law and the respectful safety of others? No. Evidently, you are so ignorantly insecure that you wish to impose your code of dress upon free women and fellow Canadians such as Zunera Ishaq.

Harper over played his divisive diversion. Harper is on his way out.

 

[Whiskey16]

It seems like the system is working as intended. A person challenged the rules, and Canadians agreed to change the rules.

Nothing was practically changed.

Long standing laws protect the freedom of dress... The issue didn't even ascend to levels of the Charter of Rights.

The federal standing laws and rights were upheld, and yet another loss by the Harper government for having illegal legislation struck down that... This government has an inexcusably lengthy and record poor drafting legislation that clearly is in violation of laws in this country.

 

[cbrunny]

Harper over played his divisive diversion. Harper is on his way out.

Surprisingly, I completely agree with something that Whiskey said. Harper did exactly this. Many voters are so put off by the ultra-conservative wing of the CPC that they simply don't want to be associated with xenophobia and hatred, even if it is association by secret ballot. I wonder what would be happening if the Niqab/Identity politics were not election issues at all. I would still have expected the NDP/Liberal vote splitting to more or less resolve itself with one of the two parties, and within that it does make sense that support has ballooned behind the Liberals over the NDP. But even some Conservative strongholds in Ontario are swaying now. I really think a Trudeau (slim) majority is possible.

As someone who has voted Conservative in the past, and will NOT be voting Conservative on Oct 19, I can say that I will take great pleasure in seeing Harper resign. I long for a truly progressive conservative party capable of sound fiscal management and progressive social policy. With demographics being what they are, as Harper resigns it is more likely that someone farther right than Harper will win the leadership, just like we saw in Ontario with Hudak and again with Brown. Brown is promptly leading the PCs in Ontario back to the late 1800s. It's a really bad time to be a fiscal conservative in Canada.

 

[Whiskey16]

...Many voters are so put off by the ultra-conservative wing of the CPC that they simply don't want to be associated with xenophobia and hatred

...I long for a truly progressive conservative party capable of sound fiscal management and progressive social policy.

Exactly, the Reformers emasculated the Progressive Conservatives with the result being support only maxing out of the political fringe.

Extremism removes the ability for political growth in a relatively respectful, tolerant, and law abiding society. After defeat in government, and when facing election reform (no more first-past-the-post), they will have no option but to reform back to he Progressive Conservative ideals or fracture back into split parties of the late '90s.

 

[cbrunny]

If PR ever comes into play, the entire political landscape will change as there will no longer be the possibility for majority government. Parties will fracture, as you've suggested Wiskey, which I suspect will lead to a rise of niche/single-issue parties. Coalitions will be the norm.

It is such a profound change that I strongly believe it (whatever version of electoral reform) can only be successfully implemented via successful referendum.

 

[Spungo]

It is such a profound change that I strongly believe it (whatever version of electoral reform) can only be successfully implemented via successful referendum.

Yeah, good luck with that. I'm sure one of the big 3 parties will jump at a chance to make it easier for their rivals to gain seats. They are more likely to put some kind of constitutional ban on proportional representation.

 

[cbrunny]

Yeah, good luck with that. I'm sure one of the big 3 parties will jump at a chance to make it easier for their rivals to gain seats. They are more likely to put some kind of constitutional ban on proportional representation.

I fully agree. I am not in the "We need reform" camp as others are. I am open to learning about the "best" models but am not yet convinced that any one is better than any other.

 

[Whiskey16]

If PR ever comes into play, the entire political landscape will change as there will no longer be the possibility for majority government. Parties will fracture, as you've suggested Wiskey, which I suspect will lead to a rise of niche/single-issue parties. Coalitions will be the norm..

No, not at all true, cbrunny.

This has already been fully addressed and explained in this thread. Your fallacy has often been corrected pages ago. Please keep up.

As we have a major 3 party system, a preferrential (ranked) ballot could easily and more often return a majority government. Smaller parties, like any other, could only attain MPs if they win a majority vote in their constituency.

My comment about the Conservatives fracturing apart is of them only representing a rather extremist fringe of society, and thereby repelling moderate voters and small 'c' conservatives. With Harper's Reform takeover, the PCs of old have been shoved aside.