Caution for AMD investors

[trajan2050]

http://www.marketwatch.com/new...29A614%7D&siteid=yhoof

After incessant bragging about the superiority of its quad-core Barcelona chip versus , AMD now has serious egg on its face. The much-hyped, much-anticipated Barcelona, which has four separate brain chips compared with Intel's stitched-together version, was delayed after problems were discovered with the product.
AMD has been the worst performer among tech companies on the S&P 500 roster so far this year. On Monday, its shares fell nearly six percent to a new 52-week low of $7.95. For the year, its shares have tumbled about 59 percent, after starting in January at $19.52.
Kumar worries that the bug AMD found in Barcelona is indicative of problems in its chip testing and validation process, because he believes the bug itself falls into a class of problems that have been widely documented and should have been quickly found by engineers.
"For the company to have missed it implies a systemic problem at the company," he said.
bluster about Barcelona in the recent months raises some red flags. Investors will need to be extremely patient with this company over the next year.

 

[toadeater]

I think the problem is they rushed a lot of stuff out in 2007. Freaky bugs in their chips? They rushed the testing because Intel and Nvidia kept making fun of them. Now it has cost them more than if they took the necessary time to get it right.

How many times does that happen in the tech industry? Let me count it on my Vista calculator. Oh no, it says I must re-activate! Connecting to Microsoft... BSOD.

 

[AmberClad]

Originally posted by: toadeater
I think the problem is they rushed a lot of stuff out in 2007. Freaky bugs in their chips? They rushed the testing because Intel and Nvidia kept making fun of them. Now it has cost them more than if they took the necessary time to get it right.

How many times does that happen in the tech industry? Let me count it on my Vista calculator. Oh no, it says I must re-activate! Connecting to Microsoft... BSOD.

LOL!! Thanks for the good laugh to get the day started right :laugh::thumbsup:.

 

[Don66]

Originally posted by: toadeater
I think the problem is they rushed a lot of stuff out in 2007. Freaky bugs in their chips? They rushed the testing because Intel and Nvidia kept making fun of them. Now it has cost them more than if they took the necessary time to get it right.

How many times does that happen in the tech industry? Let me count it on my Vista calculator. Oh no, it says I must re-activate! Connecting to Microsoft... BSOD.

LOL....You made my day!

 

[SerpentRoyal]

I gambled on AMD stock...$9. Heck, it's free $ cause I shorted AMZN after the BF scam. The stock went from +95 to sub 85 as of this morning.

 

[Thund3rb1rd]

I've been holding out on getting any AMD shares, today looks awfully tempting....weeks at 8.40-8.85...now under $8
currently 7.75 :Q

 

[SerpentRoyal]

Tax loss selling.

 

[trajan2050]

Originally posted by: Thund3rb1rd
I've been holding out on getting any AMD shares, today looks awfully tempting....weeks at 8.40-8.85...now under $8
currently 7.75 :Q

Don't be in a hurry.

 

[nyker96]

Originally posted by: toadeater
I think the problem is they rushed a lot of stuff out in 2007. Freaky bugs in their chips? They rushed the testing because Intel and Nvidia kept making fun of them. Now it has cost them more than if they took the necessary time to get it right.

How many times does that happen in the tech industry? Let me count it on my Vista calculator. Oh no, it says I must re-activate! Connecting to Microsoft... BSOD.

that's why get Ubuntu baby!

 

[SerpentRoyal]

I would say the bottom is around this level. Added a 2nd lot. Down 19 cents on low volume. Tax loss selling is effective for another six trading days. Williams, MACD, RSI look okay.

 

[v8envy]

Neither technicals or fundamentals have changed for AMD. The chart still looks like roadkill -- no trading range, reversal pattern or any other indication of a bottom in sight. In fact, every technical indicator you'd want to use is confirming a freefall trend. High beta or not (read: stock is divergent from broad market), investors are jittery and not looking to load up on companies with bleak current situations and unknown futures.

You *COULD* luck out and pick a bottom here, sure. But it would be just that -- luck. Plenty of companies trade at market values which are a multiple of their revenue. I'm not ready to call a bottom here, or even predict one at any price level until some good news comes along. That should be in the form of better than expected sales figures of 3XX0 chips -- even though it's a small part of AMD's total revenue good news could be a trigger for stopping the downward price trend.

Disclosure: I do not have a personal stake in AMD or Intel. I own mutual funds which may, but I am unaware of their AMD or Intel positions.

 

[LosSkin]

When i look at individual stocks i always check Return on Equity. AMD has a -3.634 return, which is horrible. They need to let the engineers do what they're paid to do, and not 'release' products that are being rushed due to the pressure of what Intel currently / future does.

it's ok to play catch up, just when you do catch up! Just knock the socks off!



I do not own AMD or Intel - i just own mutual funds and shares in P&G and Pfizer.

 

[The-Noid]

Originally posted by: SerpentRoyal
I would say the bottom is around this level. Added a 2nd lot. Down 19 cents on low volume. Tax loss selling is effective for another six trading days. Williams, MACD, RSI look okay.

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about do you?

If you sell at a loss and buy the position back or have bought within 30 days it is considered a wash sale and you get no tax benefits from this action.

If you sell the shares you had purchased earlier, you get no tax benefits as you added the second lot.

In the world of 15% long-term capital gains tax and short-term caps taxed at ordinary income capturing losses is a fairly inefficient strategy.

If cap gains are 50-60-70 or even 80% as they have been in the past then you may buy a security to take a loss in it, but in this day and age it is absolutely ridiculous to recommend anything like this.

How many things can you possibly be wrong on?

 

[SerpentRoyal]

Short-term, stocks may not move based on fundamentals. Look at AMZN. How long would it take for earning to catch up to valuation?

People who dabble with MFs must believe that one cannot time the market. If you owned an S&P 500 fund, then you would be up 2.3% in 2007.

Traders who remained in cash until August would lock-in 3.3% return via MM, then ride the 10% bounce in S&P from August to October, and a smaller 8% bounce from November to December. Successful traders buy when there is blood in the street and sell on good news!

If you wait for better sale numbers to surface, then the easy $ is gone. AMD can gap up 3 to 4 points overnight on good news. Ya snooze, ya lose. The only major risk in buying AMD now is BK.

 

[The-Noid]

Basically what Serpent is talking about in a nutshell.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bigger_fool_theory

But at this point AMD's bubble has popped and without any kind of positive news the market is going to continue to move them lower.

 

[SerpentRoyal]

Originally posted by: Yoxxy

Originally posted by: SerpentRoyal
I would say the bottom is around this level. Added a 2nd lot. Down 19 cents on low volume. Tax loss selling is effective for another six trading days. Williams, MACD, RSI look okay.

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about do you?

If you sell at a loss and buy the position back within 30 days it is considered a wash sale and you get no tax benefits from this action.

How many things can you possibly be wrong on?

Hmmm...who said that these individuals must buy back in Jan for the price to go up? Lack of selling pressure and a gradual accumulation from the longs are sufficient to motivate bears to cover. So who is the Village Idiot, now?

 

[The-Noid]

Short Interest in AMD is still relatively low compared to the semiconductor industry as a whole. Look at NYSE.

I was also talking about yourself purchasing the second lot.

Do you have any idea what you are talking about?

Or do you just posts things like bears to cover to make yourself seem smart?

Also with the downgrades most institutions/pensions/trusts can't keep or purchase AMD stock. You really think individuals are going to drive the price up long-term?

The only chance the stock/company has is via any kind of positive news.

 

[SerpentRoyal]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AMD

12.3% of Float short as of November for AMD. Low is under 1%. GE = 0.6%. Keep digging that grave.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GE

 

[The-Noid]

Originally posted by: SerpentRoyal
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AMD

12.3% as of November for AMD. Low is under 1%. GE = 0.6%. Keep digging that grave.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GE

Bring up growth stocks.

You argue by posting things that are completely irrelevant.

 

[Arkaign]

Where's Viditor on this? He should come brag about his millions in AMD stock

 

[The-Noid]

I will say 7 to 7.50 may find support for AMD though. But it is nowhere near any kind of support level at this point.

 

[SerpentRoyal]

We are talking about AMD stock. Growth stocks can cover semi, biotech, internet, online retailer, etc... Almost anything under the sun. NOOB.

 

[The-Noid]

GE IS THE DEFINITION OF VALUE STOCK, WHY POST IT. OF COURSE THE SHORT RATIO IS LOW. SHORT RATIO IN VALUE STOCKS ESPECIALLY MEGA-CAP VALUE IS GOING TO BE LOWER THAN THAT OF A SMALL-MID CAP GROWTH STOCK.

YOU ARE NOT STUPID. DON'T ACT STUPID.

 

[heyheybooboo]

Originally posted by: Yoxxy
Basically what Serpent is talking about in a nutshell.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bigger_fool_theory

But at this point AMD's bubble has popped and without any kind of positive news the market is going to continue to move them lower.

It's Shiller's contagion effect - and the 'irrational exuberance' of AMD FUD.

But here is a little good news concerning AMD, IBM, Toshiba, Samsung, Charter and Infineon partnering on 32nm - December 18, 2007.

 

[The-Noid]

Even serpent should agree with this.

If you are serious about purchasing AMD stock wait for options to expire on Friday for the year.

Then you will at least have a good idea of which direction the stock is going to go, going forward into 2008.