CBS News Poll

[ntdz]

It apparently has Bush up 9%, coming off the heels of the Gallup poll putting Bush up 13%. I don't have a link yet, but I just saw it on Foxnews. Something is fishy with that Pew poll....

Edit: here is the link, http://www.cbsnews.com/stories...polls/main644205.shtml

 

[LordMagnusKain]

Originally posted by: ntdz
Something is fishy with that Pew poll....

stinks eh?

 

[dahunan]

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/002806.html

Friday :: Sep 17, 2004
Why You Should Ignore The Gallup Poll This Morning - And Maybe All Of Theirs

This morning we awoke to the startling news that despite a flurry of different polls this week all showing a tied race, the venerable Gallup Poll, as reported widely in the media (USA Today and CNN) today, showed George W. Bush with a huge 55%-42% lead over John Kerry amongst likely voters. The same Gallup Poll showed an 8-point lead for Bush amongst registered voters (52%-44%). Before you get discouraged by these results, you should be more upset that Gallup gets major media outlets to tout these polls and present a false, disappointing account of the actual state of the race. Why?

Because the Gallup Poll, despite its reputation, assumes that this November 40% of those turning out to vote will be Republicans, and only 33% will be Democrat. You read that correctly. I asked Gallup, who have been very courteous to my requests, to send me this morning their sample breakdowns by party identification for both their likely and registered voter samples they use in these national and I suspect their state polls. This is what I got back this morning:

Likely Voter Sample Party IDs ? Poll of September 13-15
Reflected Bush Winning by 55%-42%

Total Sample: 767
GOP: 305 (40%)
Dem: 253 (33%)
Ind: 208 (28%)

Registered Voter Sample Party IDs ? Same Poll
Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-44%

Total Sample: 1022
GOP: 381 (38%)
Dem: 336 (33%)
Ind: 298 (30%)

In both polls, Gallup oversamples greatly for the GOP, and undersamples for the Democrats. Worse yet, Gallup just confirmed for me that this is the same sampling methodology they have been using this whole election season, for all their national and state polls.

According to John Zogby himself:

If we look at the three last Presidential elections, the spread was 34% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 33% Independents (in 1992 with Ross Perot in the race); 39% Democrats, 34% Republicans, and 27% Independents in 1996; and 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 26% Independents in 2000.

More at url.

 

[lozina]

Originally posted by: LordMagnusKain

Originally posted by: ntdz
Something is fishy with that Pew poll....

stinks eh?

Yeah this damned Pew research organization is real fishy, unless of course they publish something that agrees with my partisan bias

 

[Gravity]

What is the rather margin on that poll?

 

[cKGunslinger]

Originally posted by: dahunan
http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/002806.html

Friday :: Sep 17, 2004
Why You Should Ignore The Gallup Poll This Morning - And Maybe All Of Theirs

"The Left Coaster"?? And people criticise conservatives for quoting Fox News... :roll:

 

[cKGunslinger]

Originally posted by: lozina

Originally posted by: LordMagnusKain

Originally posted by: ntdz
Something is fishy with that Pew poll....

stinks eh?

Yeah this damned Pew research organization is real fishy, unless of course they publish something that agrees with my partisan bias

Wait, I don't see LordMagnusKain or ntdz in that thread. Oh wait.. you're one of those who assumes that any people who share a belief that differs from yours are completely interchangable, huh? :roll:

 

[LordMagnusKain]

In both polls, Gallup over samples greatly for the GOP, and under samples for the Democrats.

What with democrats loosing it makes sense that more people will identify themselves as republican.

Oh wait.. you're one of those who assumes that any people who share a belief that differs from yours are completely interchangable, huh?

actually, as it turns out, we?re all the same mindless drone, who are simply to ignorant to listen to the open-minded inclusive views of left.

We, also, are to stupid to get sarcasm, or read Nietzsche.

 

[Rob9874]

Originally posted by: LordMagnusKain

In both polls, Gallup over samples greatly for the GOP, and under samples for the Democrats.

What with democrats loosing it makes sense that more people will identify themselves as republican.

There's more truth to what you said than you know. Polls not only act as a barometer to see who Americans are supporting at the time, but it also serves as an influencer to undecided voters who are swayed by public opinion. If you're a dumb person, who could care less about politics, but know you're going to vote, and you see that America is supporting Candidate X over Candidate Y 65% to 35%, who do you think you're going to vote for?

 

[ntdz]

i never said pew was liberal or anything, just that particular poll didnt fall in line w/ other polls

 

[ntdz]

Because the Gallup Poll, despite its reputation, assumes that this November 40% of those turning out to vote will be Republicans, and only 33% will be Democrat. You read that correctly. I asked Gallup, who have been very courteous to my requests, to send me this morning their sample breakdowns by party identification for both their likely and registered voter samples they use in these national and I suspect their state polls.

Lets just assume that what "the left coaster" said is correct, take 7% away from Bush and put in in independent. Lets just assume for the sake of argument that Bush and Kerry would split that vote. That would leave Bush ahead 6 or 7 points, a significant margin...

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Well its not just the Pew poll, the Harris poll actually has Kerry ahead by 1%. I think what we can conclude from all of these conflicting polls is that there are still a large number of undecided voters out there. I'd say there are more now than there were a couple months ago. The debates will decide this election, barring a terrorist attack on our soil.

 

[CycloWizard]

Originally posted by: Sudheer Anne
Well its not just the Pew poll, the Harris poll actually has Kerry ahead by 1%. I think what we can conclude from all of these conflicting polls is that there are still a large number of undecided voters out there. I'd say there are more now than there were a couple months ago. The debates will decide this election, barring a terrorist attack on our soil.

I think this indicates that the whole polling system is out of whack. Its lack of accuracy (which is obvious, based on the disparity between polls) indicates that either some polling firms aren't following proper procedures or the procedures are inherently inaccurate. I, for one, won't bother looking at polls, as they obviously can't be trusted.

 

[ntdz]

unbelievable, look at this...

Voters in 18 battleground states favor Bush over Kerry by 53 percent to 39 percent.

 

[Tom]

Originally posted by: ntdz
unbelievable, look at this...

Voters in 18 battleground states favor Bush over Kerry by 53 percent to 39 percent.

that isn't all that meaningful since the election is per state, not an aggregation of all 18.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

This race can still be heavily influenced by outside events. If voter opinion of the war in Iraq becomes negative and the general consensus is that it was unnecessary and not part of the war on terror I think Bush could easily lose.

 

[dahunan]

Originally posted by: Tom

Originally posted by: ntdz
unbelievable, look at this...

Voters in 18 battleground states favor Bush over Kerry by 53 percent to 39 percent.

that isn't all that meaningful since the election is per state, not an aggregation of all 18.

Just more Fuzzy Math - he is a good follower.. it is the same Math his leader uses

 

[Sternfan]

Maybe people just like Bush more than kerry. It could be that simple.

 

[Lovepig]

Hillary has already decided this election. Kerry will lose. He has no chance, the Clintons won't allow it...

 

[umbrella39]

Originally posted by: Lovepig
Hillary has already decided this election. Kerry will lose. He has no chance, the Clintons won't allow it...

My goodness I hear this so much from the right and in all honesty and correct me if I am wrong, have never heard one P&N democrat say they would vote for/support Hillary Clinton for president. What is the fascination with that family? They are old news and the most she can ever hope for is a cabinet position in someone elses white house. IE she will never be going back as a resident, only as a visitor.

 

[ntdz]

i dont think theres any way in hell hilary can win a presidental election. There are too many people that absolutely hate her. She's more hated by republicans than bush is by democrats.

 

[umbrella39]

Originally posted by: ntdz
i dont think theres any way in hell hilary can win a presidental election. There are too many people that absolutely hate her. She's more hated by republicans than bush is by democrats.

I will agree with you on that. She is not too well thought of by many old school dems either. I was never too impressed that she choose a blue state like NY to hijack. You want to do your party some good, run for senate in a state where you can make a difference. There are already enough dems in NY to hold the fort down

 

[Lovepig]

That assumes she is looking out for the good of the party. She's not.

She chose NY because it would be the easiest win. Just like they are orchestration 2008 to be the easiest win. I may not be able to convince you, but 2008 will.

BTW, dosent it seem a little fishy to you that Kerry won the DNC nomination by a landslide, largest victory EVER, and yet now he is losing to Bush of all people? This election ~should~ have been easy to egt rid of Bush.

 

[b0mbrman]

Why do we keep posting polls? I think it would be fun if we just waited for November 2 for the only poll that matters...

Seriously, what's the point in arguing about how relevant or irrelevant polls are?

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Yes these polls have shown us that there is still an election to be had come Nov 2. The debates will be a key turning point in this election and will ultimately decide the winner. If Kerry does come with the goods, he's toast.