China, India, Superpower? Not so Fast!

[blues008]

Interesting article:

Link!

Highlights:

What about the hordes of Indian software engineers, call-center operators, and back-room programmers supposedly hollowing out white-collar jobs in rich countries? The total number of workers in all possible forms of IT-related jobs in India comes to less than a million workers ? one-quarter of one percent of the Indian labor force.

Is this number accurate? A million 'white-collar' IT-related jobs? I wonder what the breakdown is among the outsourcing countries: US, UK, etc.

 

[Proletariat]

The West does not want the East to succeed. There are very few actual white collar workers in India and people here make it to be a huge deal.

 

[techs]

Is someone on drugs? China has LOST manufacturing jobs in the last 10 years???

As to Indias illiteracy rate, despite it being high it has dropped 10 percent in the last 10 years(http://www.ibe.unesco.org/International/databanks/Dossiers/sindia.htm)
Comparing the Indian illiteracy rate of about 42 percent with the less than 10 percent rate in the U.S. we quickly realize that India has a population of almost 1 billion with about 580 million literate people. The US with a population of 280 million is far exceeded in the total number of literate people by India almost 2 to 1.

"The total number of workers in all possible forms of IT-related jobs in India comes to less than a million workers ? one-quarter of one percent of the Indian labor force"
This claim is also misleading. The US workforce is how much? How much is in IT? What percentage of Indian IT jobs were formally done in the US and are outsourced? IT jobs are some of the best jobs. Notice how nothing is mentioned of this? What is the rate of growth of IT jobs? And what is the number of Indians performing customer service (banks, insurance companies, credit card companies, software etc) are these IT jobs or not? Probably not. Probably "customer service"

So lets forget this nasty little piece of misdirection. It is in the same vein as all the reports at how far japan had to go to compete with the US in the 1960's. Within 20 years look how far Japan came. Within 30 years look what they did. And japan is a speck of dust population wise to India and China.

In fact this article is actually showing how far India and China have come and how soon they will be economic and eventually military behemoths.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: blues008
Interesting article:

Link!

Highlights:

What about the hordes of Indian software engineers, call-center operators, and back-room programmers supposedly hollowing out white-collar jobs in rich countries? The total number of workers in all possible forms of IT-related jobs in India comes to less than a million workers ? one-quarter of one percent of the Indian labor force.

Is this number accurate? A million 'white-collar' IT-related jobs? I wonder what the breakdown is among the outsourcing countries: US, UK, etc.

The guy keeps repeating that China has been losing millions of jobs every year since 1990's.

Let's see proof.

Looks like this Professor has been bought out by the right.

 

[smack Down]

Originally posted by: techs
Is someone on drugs? China has LOST manufacturing jobs in the last 10 years???

As to Indias illiteracy rate, despite it being high it has dropped 10 percent in the last 10 years(http://www.ibe.unesco.org/International/databanks/Dossiers/sindia.htm)
Comparing the Indian illiteracy rate of about 42 percent with the less than 10 percent rate in the U.S. we quickly realize that India has a population of almost 1 billion with about 580 million literate people. The US with a population of 280 million is far exceeded in the total number of literate people by India almost 2 to 1.

"The total number of workers in all possible forms of IT-related jobs in India comes to less than a million workers ? one-quarter of one percent of the Indian labor force"
This claim is also misleading. The US workforce is how much? How much is in IT? What percentage of Indian IT jobs were formally done in the US and are outsourced? IT jobs are some of the best jobs. Notice how nothing is mentioned of this? What is the rate of growth of IT jobs? And what is the number of Indians performing customer service (banks, insurance companies, credit card companies, software etc) are these IT jobs or not? Probably not. Probably "customer service"

So lets forget this nasty little piece of misdirection. It is in the same vein as all the reports at how far japan had to go to compete with the US in the 1960's. Within 20 years look how far Japan came. Within 30 years look what they did. And japan is a speck of dust population wise to India and China.

In fact this article is actually showing how far India and China have come and how soon they will be economic and eventually military behemoths.

population doesn't mean sh!t.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: smack Down

Originally posted by: techs
Is someone on drugs? China has LOST manufacturing jobs in the last 10 years???

As to Indias illiteracy rate, despite it being high it has dropped 10 percent in the last 10 years(http://www.ibe.unesco.org/International/databanks/Dossiers/sindia.htm)
Comparing the Indian illiteracy rate of about 42 percent with the less than 10 percent rate in the U.S. we quickly realize that India has a population of almost 1 billion with about 580 million literate people. The US with a population of 280 million is far exceeded in the total number of literate people by India almost 2 to 1.

"The total number of workers in all possible forms of IT-related jobs in India comes to less than a million workers ? one-quarter of one percent of the Indian labor force"
This claim is also misleading. The US workforce is how much? How much is in IT? What percentage of Indian IT jobs were formally done in the US and are outsourced? IT jobs are some of the best jobs. Notice how nothing is mentioned of this? What is the rate of growth of IT jobs? And what is the number of Indians performing customer service (banks, insurance companies, credit card companies, software etc) are these IT jobs or not? Probably not. Probably "customer service"

So lets forget this nasty little piece of misdirection. It is in the same vein as all the reports at how far japan had to go to compete with the US in the 1960's. Within 20 years look how far Japan came. Within 30 years look what they did. And japan is a speck of dust population wise to India and China.

In fact this article is actually showing how far India and China have come and how soon they will be economic and eventually military behemoths.

population doesn't mean sh!t.

Well put, professor :roll: Still, you have a point, population isn't everything, and it is possible that it is even holding China and India back. They may have a huge white collar labor pool, but they still have crushing poverty on a scale we can't even imagine in the US. I've seen articles suggesting the rapid rise of a middle class in those countries is misleading, since their "middle class" is far above their poor. The gap is much wider than in the US, the poor there are much poorer and the middle class is much richer (in comparitive terms). This is not a good thing if the goal is a healthy economy, and it's something Japan did not have to deal with.

None of that means China and India aren't on the rise, but the speed of that rise is going to cause problems in addition to those caused by their huge, and still mostly poor, populations.

 

[imported_Tango]

Originally posted by: smack Down

Originally posted by: techs
Is someone on drugs? China has LOST manufacturing jobs in the last 10 years???

As to Indias illiteracy rate, despite it being high it has dropped 10 percent in the last 10 years(http://www.ibe.unesco.org/International/databanks/Dossiers/sindia.htm)
Comparing the Indian illiteracy rate of about 42 percent with the less than 10 percent rate in the U.S. we quickly realize that India has a population of almost 1 billion with about 580 million literate people. The US with a population of 280 million is far exceeded in the total number of literate people by India almost 2 to 1.

"The total number of workers in all possible forms of IT-related jobs in India comes to less than a million workers ? one-quarter of one percent of the Indian labor force"
This claim is also misleading. The US workforce is how much? How much is in IT? What percentage of Indian IT jobs were formally done in the US and are outsourced? IT jobs are some of the best jobs. Notice how nothing is mentioned of this? What is the rate of growth of IT jobs? And what is the number of Indians performing customer service (banks, insurance companies, credit card companies, software etc) are these IT jobs or not? Probably not. Probably "customer service"

So lets forget this nasty little piece of misdirection. It is in the same vein as all the reports at how far japan had to go to compete with the US in the 1960's. Within 20 years look how far Japan came. Within 30 years look what they did. And japan is a speck of dust population wise to India and China.

In fact this article is actually showing how far India and China have come and how soon they will be economic and eventually military behemoths.

population doesn't mean sh!t.

Population means A LOT.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: smack Down

Originally posted by: techs
Is someone on drugs? China has LOST manufacturing jobs in the last 10 years???

As to Indias illiteracy rate, despite it being high it has dropped 10 percent in the last 10 years(http://www.ibe.unesco.org/International/databanks/Dossiers/sindia.htm)
Comparing the Indian illiteracy rate of about 42 percent with the less than 10 percent rate in the U.S. we quickly realize that India has a population of almost 1 billion with about 580 million literate people. The US with a population of 280 million is far exceeded in the total number of literate people by India almost 2 to 1.

"The total number of workers in all possible forms of IT-related jobs in India comes to less than a million workers ? one-quarter of one percent of the Indian labor force"
This claim is also misleading. The US workforce is how much? How much is in IT? What percentage of Indian IT jobs were formally done in the US and are outsourced? IT jobs are some of the best jobs. Notice how nothing is mentioned of this? What is the rate of growth of IT jobs? And what is the number of Indians performing customer service (banks, insurance companies, credit card companies, software etc) are these IT jobs or not? Probably not. Probably "customer service"

So lets forget this nasty little piece of misdirection. It is in the same vein as all the reports at how far japan had to go to compete with the US in the 1960's. Within 20 years look how far Japan came. Within 30 years look what they did. And japan is a speck of dust population wise to India and China.

In fact this article is actually showing how far India and China have come and how soon they will be economic and eventually military behemoths.

population doesn't mean sh!t.

Population means A LOT.

It does mean a lot...but not all of it is good.

 

[imported_Tango]

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: smack Down

Originally posted by: techs
Is someone on drugs? China has LOST manufacturing jobs in the last 10 years???

As to Indias illiteracy rate, despite it being high it has dropped 10 percent in the last 10 years(http://www.ibe.unesco.org/International/databanks/Dossiers/sindia.htm)
Comparing the Indian illiteracy rate of about 42 percent with the less than 10 percent rate in the U.S. we quickly realize that India has a population of almost 1 billion with about 580 million literate people. The US with a population of 280 million is far exceeded in the total number of literate people by India almost 2 to 1.

"The total number of workers in all possible forms of IT-related jobs in India comes to less than a million workers ? one-quarter of one percent of the Indian labor force"
This claim is also misleading. The US workforce is how much? How much is in IT? What percentage of Indian IT jobs were formally done in the US and are outsourced? IT jobs are some of the best jobs. Notice how nothing is mentioned of this? What is the rate of growth of IT jobs? And what is the number of Indians performing customer service (banks, insurance companies, credit card companies, software etc) are these IT jobs or not? Probably not. Probably "customer service"

So lets forget this nasty little piece of misdirection. It is in the same vein as all the reports at how far japan had to go to compete with the US in the 1960's. Within 20 years look how far Japan came. Within 30 years look what they did. And japan is a speck of dust population wise to India and China.

In fact this article is actually showing how far India and China have come and how soon they will be economic and eventually military behemoths.

population doesn't mean sh!t.

Population means A LOT.

It does mean a lot...but not all of it is good.

It depends on the economic phase acountry is living, the quantity of resources and raw materials, the education system, and millions of other parameters.

In China, right now, it has a HUGE positive factor.
In India, right now, the good part of it is starting to offset the bad part of it.
India needs time. The thing about India that is getting every investment banker around the world so excited is not the current indian economic phase, but the perspectives they have for the middle-term future.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: smack Down

Originally posted by: techs
Is someone on drugs? China has LOST manufacturing jobs in the last 10 years???

As to Indias illiteracy rate, despite it being high it has dropped 10 percent in the last 10 years(http://www.ibe.unesco.org/International/databanks/Dossiers/sindia.htm)
Comparing the Indian illiteracy rate of about 42 percent with the less than 10 percent rate in the U.S. we quickly realize that India has a population of almost 1 billion with about 580 million literate people. The US with a population of 280 million is far exceeded in the total number of literate people by India almost 2 to 1.

"The total number of workers in all possible forms of IT-related jobs in India comes to less than a million workers ? one-quarter of one percent of the Indian labor force"
This claim is also misleading. The US workforce is how much? How much is in IT? What percentage of Indian IT jobs were formally done in the US and are outsourced? IT jobs are some of the best jobs. Notice how nothing is mentioned of this? What is the rate of growth of IT jobs? And what is the number of Indians performing customer service (banks, insurance companies, credit card companies, software etc) are these IT jobs or not? Probably not. Probably "customer service"

So lets forget this nasty little piece of misdirection. It is in the same vein as all the reports at how far japan had to go to compete with the US in the 1960's. Within 20 years look how far Japan came. Within 30 years look what they did. And japan is a speck of dust population wise to India and China.

In fact this article is actually showing how far India and China have come and how soon they will be economic and eventually military behemoths.

population doesn't mean sh!t.

Population means A LOT.

It does mean a lot...but not all of it is good.

It depends on the economic phase acountry is living, the quantity of resources and raw materials, the education system, and millions of other parameters.

In China, right now, it has a HUGE positive factor.
In India, right now, the good part of it is starting to offset the bad part of it.
India needs time. The thing about India that is getting every investment banker around the world so excited is not the current indian economic phase, but the perspectives they have for the middle-term future.

I can certainly agree about the complexity involved, guess we'll just have to wait and see. Pretty much the same doom and gloom scenario (for the US at least) over Japan didn't turn out badly, I suspect that, as usual, don't panic

 

[imported_Tango]

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: smack Down

Originally posted by: techs
Is someone on drugs? China has LOST manufacturing jobs in the last 10 years???

As to Indias illiteracy rate, despite it being high it has dropped 10 percent in the last 10 years(http://www.ibe.unesco.org/International/databanks/Dossiers/sindia.htm)
Comparing the Indian illiteracy rate of about 42 percent with the less than 10 percent rate in the U.S. we quickly realize that India has a population of almost 1 billion with about 580 million literate people. The US with a population of 280 million is far exceeded in the total number of literate people by India almost 2 to 1.

"The total number of workers in all possible forms of IT-related jobs in India comes to less than a million workers ? one-quarter of one percent of the Indian labor force"
This claim is also misleading. The US workforce is how much? How much is in IT? What percentage of Indian IT jobs were formally done in the US and are outsourced? IT jobs are some of the best jobs. Notice how nothing is mentioned of this? What is the rate of growth of IT jobs? And what is the number of Indians performing customer service (banks, insurance companies, credit card companies, software etc) are these IT jobs or not? Probably not. Probably "customer service"

So lets forget this nasty little piece of misdirection. It is in the same vein as all the reports at how far japan had to go to compete with the US in the 1960's. Within 20 years look how far Japan came. Within 30 years look what they did. And japan is a speck of dust population wise to India and China.

In fact this article is actually showing how far India and China have come and how soon they will be economic and eventually military behemoths.

population doesn't mean sh!t.

Population means A LOT.

It does mean a lot...but not all of it is good.

It depends on the economic phase acountry is living, the quantity of resources and raw materials, the education system, and millions of other parameters.

In China, right now, it has a HUGE positive factor.
In India, right now, the good part of it is starting to offset the bad part of it.
India needs time. The thing about India that is getting every investment banker around the world so excited is not the current indian economic phase, but the perspectives they have for the middle-term future.

I can certainly agree about the complexity involved, guess we'll just have to wait and see. Pretty much the same doom and gloom scenario (for the US at least) over Japan didn't turn out badly, I suspect that, as usual, don't panic

Well, Japan did amazingly well. The collapse of their stock during the '90s looks big to the ones that don't consider where they were coming from. Becoming the second world's economy with such little amount of any natural resource was a miracle. But even miracles one day need to face the truth. Japan would have needed access to large amount of raw materials and energy supplies. China will have both.
Also, Japan for many reasons had geopolitical limits that they never wanted to test. They decided not to try to force the post-WWII world order and live with it. A real emerging global power will use economic expansion to fuel geopolitical sphere of influence enlargement.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: smack Down

Originally posted by: techs
Is someone on drugs? China has LOST manufacturing jobs in the last 10 years???

As to Indias illiteracy rate, despite it being high it has dropped 10 percent in the last 10 years(http://www.ibe.unesco.org/International/databanks/Dossiers/sindia.htm)
Comparing the Indian illiteracy rate of about 42 percent with the less than 10 percent rate in the U.S. we quickly realize that India has a population of almost 1 billion with about 580 million literate people. The US with a population of 280 million is far exceeded in the total number of literate people by India almost 2 to 1.

"The total number of workers in all possible forms of IT-related jobs in India comes to less than a million workers ? one-quarter of one percent of the Indian labor force"
This claim is also misleading. The US workforce is how much? How much is in IT? What percentage of Indian IT jobs were formally done in the US and are outsourced? IT jobs are some of the best jobs. Notice how nothing is mentioned of this? What is the rate of growth of IT jobs? And what is the number of Indians performing customer service (banks, insurance companies, credit card companies, software etc) are these IT jobs or not? Probably not. Probably "customer service"

So lets forget this nasty little piece of misdirection. It is in the same vein as all the reports at how far japan had to go to compete with the US in the 1960's. Within 20 years look how far Japan came. Within 30 years look what they did. And japan is a speck of dust population wise to India and China.

In fact this article is actually showing how far India and China have come and how soon they will be economic and eventually military behemoths.

population doesn't mean sh!t.

Population means A LOT.

It does mean a lot...but not all of it is good.

It depends on the economic phase acountry is living, the quantity of resources and raw materials, the education system, and millions of other parameters.

In China, right now, it has a HUGE positive factor.
In India, right now, the good part of it is starting to offset the bad part of it.
India needs time. The thing about India that is getting every investment banker around the world so excited is not the current indian economic phase, but the perspectives they have for the middle-term future.

I can certainly agree about the complexity involved, guess we'll just have to wait and see. Pretty much the same doom and gloom scenario (for the US at least) over Japan didn't turn out badly, I suspect that, as usual, don't panic

Well, Japan did amazingly well. The collapse of their stock during the '90s looks big to the ones that don't consider where they were coming from. Becoming the second world's economy with such little amount of any natural resource was a miracle.

Oh don't get me wrong, I am very impressed with what Japan has accomplished. I was just pointing out that economics is not a zero sum game, just because someone is winning doesn't mean someone else has to loose. I don't think too many people would argue that our economy overall is worse off despite fears of Japan taking over. I see no reason to panic over China or India (as some people seem to be doing).

 

[imported_Tango]

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: smack Down

Originally posted by: techs
Is someone on drugs? China has LOST manufacturing jobs in the last 10 years???

As to Indias illiteracy rate, despite it being high it has dropped 10 percent in the last 10 years(http://www.ibe.unesco.org/International/databanks/Dossiers/sindia.htm)
Comparing the Indian illiteracy rate of about 42 percent with the less than 10 percent rate in the U.S. we quickly realize that India has a population of almost 1 billion with about 580 million literate people. The US with a population of 280 million is far exceeded in the total number of literate people by India almost 2 to 1.

"The total number of workers in all possible forms of IT-related jobs in India comes to less than a million workers ? one-quarter of one percent of the Indian labor force"
This claim is also misleading. The US workforce is how much? How much is in IT? What percentage of Indian IT jobs were formally done in the US and are outsourced? IT jobs are some of the best jobs. Notice how nothing is mentioned of this? What is the rate of growth of IT jobs? And what is the number of Indians performing customer service (banks, insurance companies, credit card companies, software etc) are these IT jobs or not? Probably not. Probably "customer service"

So lets forget this nasty little piece of misdirection. It is in the same vein as all the reports at how far japan had to go to compete with the US in the 1960's. Within 20 years look how far Japan came. Within 30 years look what they did. And japan is a speck of dust population wise to India and China.

In fact this article is actually showing how far India and China have come and how soon they will be economic and eventually military behemoths.

population doesn't mean sh!t.

Population means A LOT.

It does mean a lot...but not all of it is good.

It depends on the economic phase acountry is living, the quantity of resources and raw materials, the education system, and millions of other parameters.

In China, right now, it has a HUGE positive factor.
In India, right now, the good part of it is starting to offset the bad part of it.
India needs time. The thing about India that is getting every investment banker around the world so excited is not the current indian economic phase, but the perspectives they have for the middle-term future.

I can certainly agree about the complexity involved, guess we'll just have to wait and see. Pretty much the same doom and gloom scenario (for the US at least) over Japan didn't turn out badly, I suspect that, as usual, don't panic

Well, Japan did amazingly well. The collapse of their stock during the '90s looks big to the ones that don't consider where they were coming from. Becoming the second world's economy with such little amount of any natural resource was a miracle.

Oh don't get me wrong, I am very impressed with what Japan has accomplished. I was just pointing out that economics is not a zero sum game, just because someone is winning doesn't mean someone else has to loose. I don't think too many people would argue that our economy overall is worse off despite fears of Japan taking over. I see no reason to panic over China or India (as some people seem to be doing).

Well, the reason why they are in panic is because China, contrary to Japan, has both the capabilities and the will to become not only an economic superpower but also a political superpower. Empires rise and fall. All of them. Some people are VERY unconfortable with the idea that China will be the next hegemonic superpower. As you said: we will see. Nothing is written yet, even if it's kind of obvious that China will soon test its global potential.

What you say about economics not being a zero sum game is both a very true and a very clever consideration. However Finance IS a zero sum game. That's why it sucks so much that the world out there is increasingly a more "financial" and a less "economic" world...
Thanks for the cool debate! It's nice to find sometimes someone that is not just calling names...

 

[Proletariat]

blah blah blah. So much misinformation in this thread.

You have to understand that we molded Japan in our image. Which made all the Japan hating hilarious.

China and India are creating their own images based on their several millenia of history. America for one does not want them to succeed. I've been to Bangalore. Its an immensly poor city and of very little threat to America. It amazes me how xenophobic we are sometimes.

 

[Proletariat]

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: smack Down

Originally posted by: techs
Is someone on drugs? China has LOST manufacturing jobs in the last 10 years???

As to Indias illiteracy rate, despite it being high it has dropped 10 percent in the last 10 years(http://www.ibe.unesco.org/International/databanks/Dossiers/sindia.htm)
Comparing the Indian illiteracy rate of about 42 percent with the less than 10 percent rate in the U.S. we quickly realize that India has a population of almost 1 billion with about 580 million literate people. The US with a population of 280 million is far exceeded in the total number of literate people by India almost 2 to 1.

"The total number of workers in all possible forms of IT-related jobs in India comes to less than a million workers ? one-quarter of one percent of the Indian labor force"
This claim is also misleading. The US workforce is how much? How much is in IT? What percentage of Indian IT jobs were formally done in the US and are outsourced? IT jobs are some of the best jobs. Notice how nothing is mentioned of this? What is the rate of growth of IT jobs? And what is the number of Indians performing customer service (banks, insurance companies, credit card companies, software etc) are these IT jobs or not? Probably not. Probably "customer service"

So lets forget this nasty little piece of misdirection. It is in the same vein as all the reports at how far japan had to go to compete with the US in the 1960's. Within 20 years look how far Japan came. Within 30 years look what they did. And japan is a speck of dust population wise to India and China.

In fact this article is actually showing how far India and China have come and how soon they will be economic and eventually military behemoths.

population doesn't mean sh!t.

Population means A LOT.

It does mean a lot...but not all of it is good.

It depends on the economic phase acountry is living, the quantity of resources and raw materials, the education system, and millions of other parameters.

In China, right now, it has a HUGE positive factor.
In India, right now, the good part of it is starting to offset the bad part of it.
India needs time. The thing about India that is getting every investment banker around the world so excited is not the current indian economic phase, but the perspectives they have for the middle-term future.

I can certainly agree about the complexity involved, guess we'll just have to wait and see. Pretty much the same doom and gloom scenario (for the US at least) over Japan didn't turn out badly, I suspect that, as usual, don't panic

Well, Japan did amazingly well. The collapse of their stock during the '90s looks big to the ones that don't consider where they were coming from. Becoming the second world's economy with such little amount of any natural resource was a miracle.

Oh don't get me wrong, I am very impressed with what Japan has accomplished. I was just pointing out that economics is not a zero sum game, just because someone is winning doesn't mean someone else has to loose. I don't think too many people would argue that our economy overall is worse off despite fears of Japan taking over. I see no reason to panic over China or India (as some people seem to be doing).

Well, the reason why they are in panic is because China, contrary to Japan, has both the capabilities and the will to become not only an economic superpower but also a political superpower. Empires rise and fall. All of them. Some people are VERY unconfortable with the idea that China will be the next hegemonic superpower. As you said: we will see. Nothing is written yet, even if it's kind of obvious that China will soon test its global potential.

What you say about economics not being a zero sum game is both a very true and a very clever consideration. However Finance IS a zero sum game. That's why it sucks so much that the world out there is increasingly a more "financial" and a less "economic" world...
Thanks for the cool debate! It's nice to find sometimes someone that is not just calling names...

I had an argument with my economics professor once. She brought up the classic example of "Brazil and America trading bananas". Which I'm pretty sure many professors bring up in their courses.

She said America will always define the prices because they are the richer, more powerful country. So I said - doesn't that mean the rich countries stay rich while the poor stay poor? She said that over time the trade would elevate the poorer classes. But she also said that cheap labor drives economic growth in globalization. So once everyone is middle class or rich and the poor are not that poor anymore... who will do our cheap labor?

Some people view economics and globalization as religion which is funny because it has no long term gameplan.

 

[imported_Tango]

Originally posted by: Proletariat

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: smack Down

Originally posted by: techs
Is someone on drugs? China has LOST manufacturing jobs in the last 10 years???

As to Indias illiteracy rate, despite it being high it has dropped 10 percent in the last 10 years(http://www.ibe.unesco.org/International/databanks/Dossiers/sindia.htm)
Comparing the Indian illiteracy rate of about 42 percent with the less than 10 percent rate in the U.S. we quickly realize that India has a population of almost 1 billion with about 580 million literate people. The US with a population of 280 million is far exceeded in the total number of literate people by India almost 2 to 1.

"The total number of workers in all possible forms of IT-related jobs in India comes to less than a million workers ? one-quarter of one percent of the Indian labor force"
This claim is also misleading. The US workforce is how much? How much is in IT? What percentage of Indian IT jobs were formally done in the US and are outsourced? IT jobs are some of the best jobs. Notice how nothing is mentioned of this? What is the rate of growth of IT jobs? And what is the number of Indians performing customer service (banks, insurance companies, credit card companies, software etc) are these IT jobs or not? Probably not. Probably "customer service"

So lets forget this nasty little piece of misdirection. It is in the same vein as all the reports at how far japan had to go to compete with the US in the 1960's. Within 20 years look how far Japan came. Within 30 years look what they did. And japan is a speck of dust population wise to India and China.

In fact this article is actually showing how far India and China have come and how soon they will be economic and eventually military behemoths.

population doesn't mean sh!t.

Population means A LOT.

It does mean a lot...but not all of it is good.

It depends on the economic phase acountry is living, the quantity of resources and raw materials, the education system, and millions of other parameters.

In China, right now, it has a HUGE positive factor.
In India, right now, the good part of it is starting to offset the bad part of it.
India needs time. The thing about India that is getting every investment banker around the world so excited is not the current indian economic phase, but the perspectives they have for the middle-term future.

I can certainly agree about the complexity involved, guess we'll just have to wait and see. Pretty much the same doom and gloom scenario (for the US at least) over Japan didn't turn out badly, I suspect that, as usual, don't panic

Well, Japan did amazingly well. The collapse of their stock during the '90s looks big to the ones that don't consider where they were coming from. Becoming the second world's economy with such little amount of any natural resource was a miracle.

Oh don't get me wrong, I am very impressed with what Japan has accomplished. I was just pointing out that economics is not a zero sum game, just because someone is winning doesn't mean someone else has to loose. I don't think too many people would argue that our economy overall is worse off despite fears of Japan taking over. I see no reason to panic over China or India (as some people seem to be doing).

Well, the reason why they are in panic is because China, contrary to Japan, has both the capabilities and the will to become not only an economic superpower but also a political superpower. Empires rise and fall. All of them. Some people are VERY unconfortable with the idea that China will be the next hegemonic superpower. As you said: we will see. Nothing is written yet, even if it's kind of obvious that China will soon test its global potential.

What you say about economics not being a zero sum game is both a very true and a very clever consideration. However Finance IS a zero sum game. That's why it sucks so much that the world out there is increasingly a more "financial" and a less "economic" world...
Thanks for the cool debate! It's nice to find sometimes someone that is not just calling names...

I had an argument with my economics professor once. She brought up the classic example of "Brazil and America trading bananas". Which I'm pretty sure many professors bring up in their courses.

She said America will always define the prices because they are the richer, more powerful country. So I said - doesn't that mean the rich countries stay rich while the poor stay poor? She said that over time the trade would elevate the poorer classes. But she also said that cheap labor drives economic growth in globalization. So once everyone is middle class or rich and the poor are not that poor anymore... who will do our cheap labor?

Some people view economics and globalization as religion which is funny because it has no long term gameplan.

Wallerstein noted this a long time ago, and yes you are right, it's exactly like that. The point is: globalization gives a little bit og fresh air to capitalism.
Capitalism is not moved by long term programs,but by short-term revenues. Even if you know it won't last forever, you are exploiting what you have now anyway.

 

[imported_Tango]

Originally posted by: Proletariat

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: smack Down

Originally posted by: techs
Is someone on drugs? China has LOST manufacturing jobs in the last 10 years???

As to Indias illiteracy rate, despite it being high it has dropped 10 percent in the last 10 years(http://www.ibe.unesco.org/International/databanks/Dossiers/sindia.htm)
Comparing the Indian illiteracy rate of about 42 percent with the less than 10 percent rate in the U.S. we quickly realize that India has a population of almost 1 billion with about 580 million literate people. The US with a population of 280 million is far exceeded in the total number of literate people by India almost 2 to 1.

"The total number of workers in all possible forms of IT-related jobs in India comes to less than a million workers ? one-quarter of one percent of the Indian labor force"
This claim is also misleading. The US workforce is how much? How much is in IT? What percentage of Indian IT jobs were formally done in the US and are outsourced? IT jobs are some of the best jobs. Notice how nothing is mentioned of this? What is the rate of growth of IT jobs? And what is the number of Indians performing customer service (banks, insurance companies, credit card companies, software etc) are these IT jobs or not? Probably not. Probably "customer service"

So lets forget this nasty little piece of misdirection. It is in the same vein as all the reports at how far japan had to go to compete with the US in the 1960's. Within 20 years look how far Japan came. Within 30 years look what they did. And japan is a speck of dust population wise to India and China.

In fact this article is actually showing how far India and China have come and how soon they will be economic and eventually military behemoths.

population doesn't mean sh!t.

Population means A LOT.

It does mean a lot...but not all of it is good.

It depends on the economic phase acountry is living, the quantity of resources and raw materials, the education system, and millions of other parameters.

In China, right now, it has a HUGE positive factor.
In India, right now, the good part of it is starting to offset the bad part of it.
India needs time. The thing about India that is getting every investment banker around the world so excited is not the current indian economic phase, but the perspectives they have for the middle-term future.

I can certainly agree about the complexity involved, guess we'll just have to wait and see. Pretty much the same doom and gloom scenario (for the US at least) over Japan didn't turn out badly, I suspect that, as usual, don't panic

Well, Japan did amazingly well. The collapse of their stock during the '90s looks big to the ones that don't consider where they were coming from. Becoming the second world's economy with such little amount of any natural resource was a miracle.

Oh don't get me wrong, I am very impressed with what Japan has accomplished. I was just pointing out that economics is not a zero sum game, just because someone is winning doesn't mean someone else has to loose. I don't think too many people would argue that our economy overall is worse off despite fears of Japan taking over. I see no reason to panic over China or India (as some people seem to be doing).

Well, the reason why they are in panic is because China, contrary to Japan, has both the capabilities and the will to become not only an economic superpower but also a political superpower. Empires rise and fall. All of them. Some people are VERY unconfortable with the idea that China will be the next hegemonic superpower. As you said: we will see. Nothing is written yet, even if it's kind of obvious that China will soon test its global potential.

What you say about economics not being a zero sum game is both a very true and a very clever consideration. However Finance IS a zero sum game. That's why it sucks so much that the world out there is increasingly a more "financial" and a less "economic" world...
Thanks for the cool debate! It's nice to find sometimes someone that is not just calling names...

I had an argument with my economics professor once. She brought up the classic example of "Brazil and America trading bananas". Which I'm pretty sure many professors bring up in their courses.

She said America will always define the prices because they are the richer, more powerful country. So I said - doesn't that mean the rich countries stay rich while the poor stay poor? She said that over time the trade would elevate the poorer classes. But she also said that cheap labor drives economic growth in globalization. So once everyone is middle class or rich and the poor are not that poor anymore... who will do our cheap labor?

Some people view economics and globalization as religion which is funny because it has no long term gameplan.

I disagree. As i said, India is not interesting for its current situation, but for its perspectives. We are talking about long term. In the short term is alreay the most interesting financial market in the world (personal opinion). Nobody thinks India is today a global power. It is an area power, and a rapidly emerging economy.

China is a whole different beast...

 

[Proletariat]

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Proletariat

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: smack Down

Originally posted by: techs
Is someone on drugs? China has LOST manufacturing jobs in the last 10 years???

As to Indias illiteracy rate, despite it being high it has dropped 10 percent in the last 10 years(http://www.ibe.unesco.org/International/databanks/Dossiers/sindia.htm)
Comparing the Indian illiteracy rate of about 42 percent with the less than 10 percent rate in the U.S. we quickly realize that India has a population of almost 1 billion with about 580 million literate people. The US with a population of 280 million is far exceeded in the total number of literate people by India almost 2 to 1.

"The total number of workers in all possible forms of IT-related jobs in India comes to less than a million workers ? one-quarter of one percent of the Indian labor force"
This claim is also misleading. The US workforce is how much? How much is in IT? What percentage of Indian IT jobs were formally done in the US and are outsourced? IT jobs are some of the best jobs. Notice how nothing is mentioned of this? What is the rate of growth of IT jobs? And what is the number of Indians performing customer service (banks, insurance companies, credit card companies, software etc) are these IT jobs or not? Probably not. Probably "customer service"

So lets forget this nasty little piece of misdirection. It is in the same vein as all the reports at how far japan had to go to compete with the US in the 1960's. Within 20 years look how far Japan came. Within 30 years look what they did. And japan is a speck of dust population wise to India and China.

In fact this article is actually showing how far India and China have come and how soon they will be economic and eventually military behemoths.

population doesn't mean sh!t.

Population means A LOT.

It does mean a lot...but not all of it is good.

It depends on the economic phase acountry is living, the quantity of resources and raw materials, the education system, and millions of other parameters.

In China, right now, it has a HUGE positive factor.
In India, right now, the good part of it is starting to offset the bad part of it.
India needs time. The thing about India that is getting every investment banker around the world so excited is not the current indian economic phase, but the perspectives they have for the middle-term future.

I can certainly agree about the complexity involved, guess we'll just have to wait and see. Pretty much the same doom and gloom scenario (for the US at least) over Japan didn't turn out badly, I suspect that, as usual, don't panic

Well, Japan did amazingly well. The collapse of their stock during the '90s looks big to the ones that don't consider where they were coming from. Becoming the second world's economy with such little amount of any natural resource was a miracle.

Oh don't get me wrong, I am very impressed with what Japan has accomplished. I was just pointing out that economics is not a zero sum game, just because someone is winning doesn't mean someone else has to loose. I don't think too many people would argue that our economy overall is worse off despite fears of Japan taking over. I see no reason to panic over China or India (as some people seem to be doing).

Well, the reason why they are in panic is because China, contrary to Japan, has both the capabilities and the will to become not only an economic superpower but also a political superpower. Empires rise and fall. All of them. Some people are VERY unconfortable with the idea that China will be the next hegemonic superpower. As you said: we will see. Nothing is written yet, even if it's kind of obvious that China will soon test its global potential.

What you say about economics not being a zero sum game is both a very true and a very clever consideration. However Finance IS a zero sum game. That's why it sucks so much that the world out there is increasingly a more "financial" and a less "economic" world...
Thanks for the cool debate! It's nice to find sometimes someone that is not just calling names...

I had an argument with my economics professor once. She brought up the classic example of "Brazil and America trading bananas". Which I'm pretty sure many professors bring up in their courses.

She said America will always define the prices because they are the richer, more powerful country. So I said - doesn't that mean the rich countries stay rich while the poor stay poor? She said that over time the trade would elevate the poorer classes. But she also said that cheap labor drives economic growth in globalization. So once everyone is middle class or rich and the poor are not that poor anymore... who will do our cheap labor?

Some people view economics and globalization as religion which is funny because it has no long term gameplan.

I disagree. As i said, India is not interesting for its current situation, but for its perspectives. We are talking about long term. In the short term is alreay the most interesting financial market in the world (personal opinion). Nobody thinks India is today a global power. It is an area power, and a rapidly emerging economy.

China is a whole different beast...

Yes China is a whole new 'beast' for many reasons.

One being that the West, by investing in China, are fueling their own downfall. Which I find immensly interesting but at the same time sad. By 2050 the Middle Kingdom may in fact include the West.

Economists always make me laugh. They take into consideration no history, no past, nothing. No culture, they just look at everything as numbers. Everything isn't numbers. The world is as complex place on many levels. And I fear Imperialism by any race is now a lasting ideal.

 

[stratman]

Originally posted by: Proletariat
Yes China is a whole new 'beast' for many reasons.

One being that the West, by investing in China, are fueling their own downfall. Which I find immensly interesting but at the same time sad. By 2050 the Middle Kingdom may in fact include the West.

Economists always make me laugh. They take into consideration no history, no past, nothing. No culture, they just look at everything as numbers. Everything isn't numbers. The world is as complex place on many levels. And I fear Imperialism by any race is now a lasting ideal.

I can see why China would invade Japan or Taiwan, but I really don't see them occupying North America or Europe. What would be the purpose?

 

[smack Down]

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: smack Down

Originally posted by: techs
Is someone on drugs? China has LOST manufacturing jobs in the last 10 years???

As to Indias illiteracy rate, despite it being high it has dropped 10 percent in the last 10 years(http://www.ibe.unesco.org/International/databanks/Dossiers/sindia.htm)
Comparing the Indian illiteracy rate of about 42 percent with the less than 10 percent rate in the U.S. we quickly realize that India has a population of almost 1 billion with about 580 million literate people. The US with a population of 280 million is far exceeded in the total number of literate people by India almost 2 to 1.

"The total number of workers in all possible forms of IT-related jobs in India comes to less than a million workers ? one-quarter of one percent of the Indian labor force"
This claim is also misleading. The US workforce is how much? How much is in IT? What percentage of Indian IT jobs were formally done in the US and are outsourced? IT jobs are some of the best jobs. Notice how nothing is mentioned of this? What is the rate of growth of IT jobs? And what is the number of Indians performing customer service (banks, insurance companies, credit card companies, software etc) are these IT jobs or not? Probably not. Probably "customer service"

So lets forget this nasty little piece of misdirection. It is in the same vein as all the reports at how far japan had to go to compete with the US in the 1960's. Within 20 years look how far Japan came. Within 30 years look what they did. And japan is a speck of dust population wise to India and China.

In fact this article is actually showing how far India and China have come and how soon they will be economic and eventually military behemoths.

population doesn't mean sh!t.

Population means A LOT.

It does mean a lot...but not all of it is good.

It depends on the economic phase acountry is living, the quantity of resources and raw materials, the education system, and millions of other parameters.

In China, right now, it has a HUGE positive factor.
In India, right now, the good part of it is starting to offset the bad part of it.
India needs time. The thing about India that is getting every investment banker around the world so excited is not the current indian economic phase, but the perspectives they have for the middle-term future.

What advantage is it to china to have 1 billion people compared to 500 million or 200 million?

 

[imported_Tango]

Originally posted by: stratman

Originally posted by: Proletariat
Yes China is a whole new 'beast' for many reasons.

One being that the West, by investing in China, are fueling their own downfall. Which I find immensly interesting but at the same time sad. By 2050 the Middle Kingdom may in fact include the West.

Economists always make me laugh. They take into consideration no history, no past, nothing. No culture, they just look at everything as numbers. Everything isn't numbers. The world is as complex place on many levels. And I fear Imperialism by any race is now a lasting ideal.

I can see why China would invade Japan or Taiwan, but I really don't see them occupying North America or Europe. What would be the purpose?

Well, I don't think they will invade any country. They won't need to. Power is obtainable in much less expensive ways.

However, as a side note, every time you read someone stating that a global scale conflict is unimaginable today, remember that the same ideas were printed on every newspaper in the beginning of the 20th century. We all know how truth proved different from that vision.

it's very hard to predict the future, and human nature tend to assume everything will always be as we know it now. Like the cold war, the Nadaq bubble... sometimes people tend to irrationally believe that something will never change.

In this particular case I would be happy if it was true, no more global wars. But never and always are forbidden words in history.

 

[Engineer]

Whether it matters or not the future can decide, but CNN reported China is graduating 10 engineers per 1 US engineer. We graduate more lawyers per year than engineers, which might be part of our problem all on it's own.

 

[imported_Tango]

Originally posted by: smack Down

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: smack Down

Originally posted by: techs
Is someone on drugs? China has LOST manufacturing jobs in the last 10 years???

As to Indias illiteracy rate, despite it being high it has dropped 10 percent in the last 10 years(http://www.ibe.unesco.org/International/databanks/Dossiers/sindia.htm)
Comparing the Indian illiteracy rate of about 42 percent with the less than 10 percent rate in the U.S. we quickly realize that India has a population of almost 1 billion with about 580 million literate people. The US with a population of 280 million is far exceeded in the total number of literate people by India almost 2 to 1.

"The total number of workers in all possible forms of IT-related jobs in India comes to less than a million workers ? one-quarter of one percent of the Indian labor force"
This claim is also misleading. The US workforce is how much? How much is in IT? What percentage of Indian IT jobs were formally done in the US and are outsourced? IT jobs are some of the best jobs. Notice how nothing is mentioned of this? What is the rate of growth of IT jobs? And what is the number of Indians performing customer service (banks, insurance companies, credit card companies, software etc) are these IT jobs or not? Probably not. Probably "customer service"

So lets forget this nasty little piece of misdirection. It is in the same vein as all the reports at how far japan had to go to compete with the US in the 1960's. Within 20 years look how far Japan came. Within 30 years look what they did. And japan is a speck of dust population wise to India and China.

In fact this article is actually showing how far India and China have come and how soon they will be economic and eventually military behemoths.

population doesn't mean sh!t.

Population means A LOT.

It does mean a lot...but not all of it is good.

It depends on the economic phase acountry is living, the quantity of resources and raw materials, the education system, and millions of other parameters.

In China, right now, it has a HUGE positive factor.
In India, right now, the good part of it is starting to offset the bad part of it.
India needs time. The thing about India that is getting every investment banker around the world so excited is not the current indian economic phase, but the perspectives they have for the middle-term future.

What advantage is it to china to have 1 billion people compared to 500 million or 200 million?

Huge, low cost labor force is keeping their growth rate at recond-breaking levels despite low technology. At the same time they are building a highly educated ruling class and drastically improving their technological level. So you can forecast a sustainable growth rate for many many years. Also macroeconomic figures are affected from their high population, in particular savings and investments levels. The chinese banking sector has immense potentialities, and population is one of the main factors in this. Chinese banks and investment funds will soon be able to move huge capitals on the financial markets. they already have considerable power in the bonds market, and considering how fast this happened the perspectives on the future look very interesting.

In India too, the large population has been for a long time a problem for their economic development, but now the tendence is being inverted... and it's the one economy in the world I personally trust more for future performances.

Keep in mind, I am not saying that either China or India are already posing a threat to the US economy, just that the performance one can envision for them in the next decades are very very exciting.

 

[piasabird]

Whenever the Economy is bad the western world buys less so less junk is made in China.

Makes some sense. With more soviet block countries seeing more freedom they may be breaking into the world market. Also some Indo-China area countries may be stealing market share.

 

[irwincur]

The West does not want the East to succeed.

Yes it does. It creates a larger market for the service based economies of the West. Services are based almost entirely on economic excess and rich nations expect them. Spur the East forward by accelerating their 'industrial revolution' and you quickly expand the available markets for services.

Pretty simple actually and a healthy progression (as well as expected) of modern economics. Also evidence that in the long run outsourcing low quality manufacturing jobs will indeed benefit society. Any economist worth his/her weight would see this.