Stepper => Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (Group) Co., Ltd.
EDA tools => X-Epic, Shanghai Hejian Industrial Software, Advanced Manufacturing EDA Co., Amedac
OSATs => Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology (JCET), Huatian Technology and Tongfu Microelectronics
Probably a lot of I am missing, everything is present probably. I don't think they need Taiwan anymore to make a self-sufficient semiconductor market.
2031-2040 is probably when China mainland leapfrogs over everyone else.
Maybe sooner. For example, Huawei is already testing 6G for telecom.
Sure, we look to the sexier x86 market, and ARM, and even GPU companies. But people often forget the rise of risc-v, an open source architecture from Berkeley. They also don't seem to know about china's mandate that all government computers be made of home grown silicon in the next couple years. That will inject tons of money into their sector for R&D through massive purchase agreements.
Moreover, on x86, Via has entered a joint venture with a Chinese firm giving access to x86 patents to legally develop and produce on that tech. And SIMC will continue with their die shrink and production of Chinese ram.
All cutting off Chinese citizens will do is force them to inject further capital into the Chinese system for R&D.
So I'm unsure if will take even until 2030 for that. Look at Intel's struggles in process node, then look at apple's m1. Then look at Microsoft going ARM. AMD renewing their arm project. Nvidia wanting the arm ip to produce more ARM projects.
China would just be moving to risc-v, the new hotness. It took ARM this long to overtake x86. I'm betting, since China has a lot of experience working with risc chips, generally, such as SPARC (see Tianhe-2), risc-v development may literally be their way of taking dominance from arm moving forward.