News Chinese fab banned from using US technology

[NTMBK]

SMIC have been added to the Entity List. For those unfamiliar, that means that they are not allowed to buy any US originating technology- so it's going to get a lot harder for SMIC to operate.

Commerce Adds China’s SMIC to the Entity List, Restricting Access to Key Enabling U.S. Technology

The Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) in the Department of Commerce (Commerce) added Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) of China to the Entity List. BIS is taking this action to protect U.S.

www.commerce.gov

 

[teejee]

SMIC have been added to the Entity List. For those unfamiliar, that means that they are not allowed to buy any US originating technology- so it's going to get a lot harder for SMIC to operate.

Commerce Adds China’s SMIC to the Entity List, Restricting Access to Key Enabling U.S. Technology

The Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) in the Department of Commerce (Commerce) added Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) of China to the Entity List. BIS is taking this action to protect U.S.

www.commerce.gov

This obviously means that China will put a lot of resources into developing their own tools/IP instead of relying on anything related to US.
I assume this work is alredy ongoing, but this new restriction will speed things up.
So good for China and bad for US in the long run.

 

[moinmoin]

Honestly a surprise it took this long. Logically could have happened along with the TSMC "deal". At this point the more interesting question is how the upcoming Biden administration will handle this whole area of economical conflict.

 

[zir_blazer]

This obviously means that China will put a lot of resources into developing their own tools/IP instead of relying on anything related to US.
I assume this work is alredy ongoing, but this new restriction will speed things up.
So good for China and bad for US in the long run.

Absolutely. This is something that people seems to have forgot.

Want to know what happens if you cut the umbilical cord to provide someone that depends on your tech, but has the means to develop it itself? It will do so faster, then the ex provider will become completely irrelevant. Congratulations, you just lost your diplomatic soft power.

 

[Ajay]

Semiconductor manufacturing is already a top priority for China. They were already working hard on this, they just don’t have the depth of experience to build anything close to cutting edge. I’m 100% certain that China has 'acquired' the blueprints and chemistry required for these advanced nodes. Access to foreign equipment and software might slow them down a bit. This just escalates the geopolitical war being waged between both countries - thus the arguments for or against this policy would best be discussed in P&N.

 

[sandorski]

This is a Surrender. It won't take long for China to find the technology from Others or themselves. When that happens the US loses twice, first by not making a Sale and secondly by gaining a new Competitor. Outside of Intel, which US companies even Manufacture Semiconductors these days anyway? I suspect there is a single Corp that wants this for whatever reason and because of corruption their wish has become Policy.

 

[Doug S]

Semiconductor manufacturing is already a top priority for China. They were already working hard on this, they just don’t have the depth of experience to build anything close to cutting edge. I’m 100% certain that China has 'acquired' the blueprints and chemistry required for these advanced nodes. Access to foreign equipment and software might slow them down a bit. This just escalates the geopolitical war being waged between both countries - thus the arguments for or against this policy would best be discussed in P&N.

Even knowing EXACTLY what TSMC is doing in say N5 doesn't help them replicate it when they won't be able to buy EUV scanners. That's just the tip of the iceberg, they will have to replicate all the tools, the design software, everything in the whole stack. Industrial espionage can only get you so far, there will be things they can't 'acquire' and have to figure out on their own. It might take them a decade to move beyond where multipattern DUV can get them (i.e. approximately where TSMC/Samsung are at "7nm" or Intel is at "10nm") Just look at how long it took the industry to make EUV work at production volumes, they had to overcome a number of huge hurdles to do so.

 

[dullard]

Even knowing EXACTLY what TSMC is doing in say N5 doesn't help them replicate it when they won't be able to buy EUV scanners. That's just the tip of the iceberg, they will have to replicate all the tools, the design software, everything in the whole stack. Industrial espionage can only get you so far, there will be things they can't 'acquire' and have to figure out on their own.

It would be an unlikely move, but I wouldn't put it past China to 'acquire' Taiwan. No need for industrial espionage when you just take TSMC.

 

[Ajay]

Even knowing EXACTLY what TSMC is doing in say N5 doesn't help them replicate it when they won't be able to buy EUV scanners. That's just the tip of the iceberg, they will have to replicate all the tools, the design software, everything in the whole stack. Industrial espionage can only get you so far, there will be things they can't 'acquire' and have to figure out on their own. It might take them a decade to move beyond where multipattern DUV can get them (i.e. approximately where TSMC/Samsung are at "7nm" or Intel is at "10nm") Just look at how long it took the industry to make EUV work at production volumes, they had to overcome a number of huge hurdles to do so.

Yes, not having access to ASML's EUV systems is probably the biggest hurdle - though China has more chemists and physicist than the US and Europe combined. ASML is an interesting or complex company in this equation. They have 3 centers in China, including their largest R&D center in Asia. They also have major centers in the US (due to Intel, of course) - including their largest software development center (Cali). The systems are manufactured, primarily, in the Netherlands. As is typical, they (the Netherlands) will likely fall in line behind the US mandates, which creates a real problem for ASML. Would they consider a Chinese spinoff of the company just to remain in, what will likely be, the fastest growing semiconductor producer? Tricky stuff. It will fall upon the Biden administration to figure out what to do next.

 

[Doug S]

It would be an unlikely move, but I wouldn't put it past China to 'acquire' Taiwan. No need for industrial espionage when you just take TSMC.

I'd say it is more than unlikely, but if they did they wouldn't get TSMC. They'd get all their equipment, but those expensive machines require constant support. You couldn't use ASML's EUV machines to produce chips without the full cooperation of ASML, and that would be true for most everything in the fab.

 

[NTMBK]

I'd say it is more than unlikely, but if they did they wouldn't get TSMC. They'd get all their equipment, but those expensive machines require constant support. You couldn't use ASML's EUV machines to produce chips without the full cooperation of ASML, and that would be true for most everything in the fab.

Not to mention that I'm sure the US would happily put a cruise missile through the fabs to stop them falling into Chinese hands.

 

[chrisjames61]

Not to mention that I'm sure the US would happily put a cruise missile through the fabs to stop them falling into Chinese hands.

Maybe even a small tactical nuke.

 

[ajc9988]

This is a Surrender. It won't take long for China to find the technology from Others or themselves. When that happens the US loses twice, first by not making a Sale and secondly by gaining a new Competitor. Outside of Intel, which US companies even Manufacture Semiconductors these days anyway? I suspect there is a single Corp that wants this for whatever reason and because of corruption their wish has become Policy.

Global foundries, although no longer cutting edge, is a US foundry.

Even knowing EXACTLY what TSMC is doing in say N5 doesn't help them replicate it when they won't be able to buy EUV scanners. That's just the tip of the iceberg, they will have to replicate all the tools, the design software, everything in the whole stack. Industrial espionage can only get you so far, there will be things they can't 'acquire' and have to figure out on their own. It might take them a decade to move beyond where multipattern DUV can get them (i.e. approximately where TSMC/Samsung are at "7nm" or Intel is at "10nm") Just look at how long it took the industry to make EUV work at production volumes, they had to overcome a number of huge hurdles to do so.

ASML is a corporation with its HQ in Netherlands. It is not US tech. And if the US tried to sanction them for dealing with the Chinese, it would cripple the global semiconductor market. ASML can call their bluff. TSMC could have but chose not to. But ASML is more fundamental than a fab. It is the tools that fabs need. ASML US division cannot sell to China, but they have other areas.

It would be an unlikely move, but I wouldn't put it past China to 'acquire' Taiwan. No need for industrial espionage when you just take TSMC.

China owns Taiwan according to the UN. The UN has not acknowledged Taiwan as its own state. The US selling 7 weapons systems to Taiwan put China on the ready, preparing their marines. The US is doing this as a pretext, but all war games have China decimating the US in the pacific in the opening hours of the salvo, both by naval and air power. The way game of 2019 for world War III against Russia and China had them, as one person put it reporting on the war game, handing our buttocks to us. The missile barrage alone resulted in China reducing our fleet in the pacific by over 50%, while Russia would within hours capture at least one capital in the Baltics.

If China wanted it, it could take Taiwan and nothing anyone could do about it. This is why half of their elected representatives were against buying the US weapons systems.

 

[ajc9988]

I'd say it is more than unlikely, but if they did they wouldn't get TSMC. They'd get all their equipment, but those expensive machines require constant support. You couldn't use ASML's EUV machines to produce chips without the full cooperation of ASML, and that would be true for most everything in the fab.

If the company is in the Netherlands and China takes TSMC, the largest pure play fab in the world, with almost all facilities in that island, ASML would cut off 33%+ revenue to do what you suggest. Why are you ignoring that?

Not to mention that I'm sure the US would happily put a cruise missile through the fabs to stop them falling into Chinese hands.

That is a declaration of war. Stop thinking we can win a war against China. Their production alone would kick up and the US would lose. Look into all prior war games against China. Most end in nuclear war. And this flippant statement shows you are uninformed on the matter.

Edit: also, targeting civilian infrastructure IS A WARCRIME. You are advocating for illegal behavior even in war.

 

[maddie]

If the company is in the Netherlands and China takes TSMC, the largest pure play fab in the world, with almost all facilities in that island, ASML would cut off 33%+ revenue to do what you suggest. Why are you ignoring that?That is a declaration of war. Stop thinking we can win a war against China. Their production alone would kick up and the US would lose. Look into all prior war games against China. Most end in nuclear war. And this flippant statement shows you are uninformed on the matter.

And that's the truly scary part. Not all end in WW3. Some, on both sides, might think they can win.

 

[ajc9988]

And that's the truly scary part. Not all end in WW3. Some, on both sides, might think they can win.

If the US commits an act of war that is not defensive in nature, NATO does not have to support the US. This was seen in Europe backing away after our assassination of the Iranian General, which violated international law and of which we ratified the document from the UN decades ago, meaning we also violated US law.

So even without WWIII, NATO wouldn't get involved, especially as it would cut Europe off of all Chinese production and supply infrastructure, and rare earth minerals. And, China still would take out the majority of our fleet in the pacific in the opening hours. That doesn't change. But China would accelerate the building and deployment of aircraft carriers, subs, airplanes, and missiles. We cannot compare to their production capacity.

And no one wins because the US would see the casualties roll in, then escalate.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Ah the war sabres are rattling.

Meanwhile: does ASML already sell equipment to SMIC? Does anyone know if ASML has future commitments to sell EUV equipment to SMIC? That's a sensitive issue in-and-of-itself, since it is widely held that SMIC exists as a parasite on some of ASML's biggest customers (namely, TSMC and Samsung). At what point does ASML confront the reality that doing business with SMIC potentialyl harms their other customers, geopolitics aside?

 

[NTMBK]

That is a declaration of war. Stop thinking we can win a war against China. Their production alone would kick up and the US would lose. Look into all prior war games against China. Most end in nuclear war. And this flippant statement shows you are uninformed on the matter.

Edit: also, targeting civilian infrastructure IS A WARCRIME. You are advocating for illegal behavior even in war.

I'm not advocating it! I very much hope that such a scenario never comes to pass. But if China tries to cross the Taiwan straits, that will already be the start of a shooting war with the US. And the entire rationale for the SMIC sanctions is due to their links with the Chinese military, so the US would see bombing of fabs as no different from bombing of munitions factories.

Again- I never, ever want to see this happen. A war between superpowers would be a disaster for the entire world, and millions of innocent people would die. I am only trying to predict what might happen in such an awful scenario.

 

[mikegg]

Not to mention that I'm sure the US would happily put a cruise missile through the fabs to stop them falling into Chinese hands.

I'm not advocating it! I very much hope that such a scenario never comes to pass. But if China tries to cross the Taiwan straits, that will already be the start of a shooting war with the US. And the entire rationale for the SMIC sanctions is due to their links with the Chinese military, so the US would see bombing of fabs as no different from bombing of munitions factories.

Again- I never, ever want to see this happen. A war between superpowers would be a disaster for the entire world, and millions of innocent people would die. I am only trying to predict what might happen in such an awful scenario.

Dude, stop advocating for war or bombing civilian facilities because you want your Ryzen CPU. That's just crazy and dumb. You have a seriously twisted mind.

China never intends to take Taiwan by military force.

China's strategy of taking Taiwan back is that of voting. Taiwan is a democracy and the people there can vote for a leader that is pro-China. China does this by merging the economies together so that Taiwan is dependent on China economically. China already allows anyone with Taiwanese citizenship to freely travel to and work in China like they hold Chinese citizenship. Many young Taiwanese work in China after graduation because they can make more money there. Being pro-China is economically beneficial to many Taiwanese people. At the end of the day, it's always about economics.

China makes up 30% of Taiwan's trading while the U.S. makes up only 13%.

So far, Taiwan's current leader is not pro-China. She is pro-independence. However, in the 2020 election, the opposing party which is pro-China won 40% of the votes. And that's with the Hong Kong protests inspiring many Taiwanese to vote.

It's far more grey than black and white. Stop thinking that what America wants is what all Taiwanese people want. Even worse, stop thinking what you want (which is cheap and fast CPUs) is what Taiwanese people want.

I wish mods would close this thread. This thread will surely become political, instead of CPU related. OP should have posted this in the politics forum.

The fact that Anandtech even allows this kind of content on the site is a disgrace.

 

[NTMBK]

Dude, stop advocating for war or bombing civilian facilities because you want your Ryzen CPU. That's just crazy and dumb. You have a seriously twisted mind.

China never intends to take Taiwan by military force.

China's strategy of taking Taiwan back is that of voting. Taiwan is a democracy and the people there can vote for a leader that is pro-China. China does this by merging the economies together so that Taiwan is dependent on China economically. China already allows anyone with Taiwanese citizenship to freely travel to and work in China like they hold Chinese citizenship. Many young Taiwanese work in China after graduation because they can make more money there. Being pro-China is economically beneficial to many Taiwanese people. At the end of the day, it's always about economics.

China makes up 30% of Taiwan's trading while the U.S. makes up only 13%.

So far, Taiwan's current leader is not pro-China. She is pro-independence. However, in the 2020 election, the opposing party which is pro-China won 40% of the votes. And that's with the Hong Kong protests inspiring many Taiwanese to vote.

It's far more grey than black and white. Stop thinking that what America wants is what all Taiwanese people want. Even worse, stop thinking what you want (which is cheap and fast CPUs) is what Taiwanese people want.

I wish mods would close this thread. This thread will surely become political, instead of CPU related. OP should have posted this in the politics forum.

The fact that Anandtech even allows this kind of content on the site is a disgrace.

I am absolutely not advocating it! I am 100% against a war. I do not want a war. I was replying to a comment that referred to China 'acquiring' Taiwan, which I read as the poster suggesting a forcible annexation. I was continuing along that line of speculation. I certainly don't want a war so that I can have a cheap CPU, so please stop slandering me.

If Taiwan votes to rejoin mainland China, great for them. All peoples in all countries have a right to self-determination. The Taiwanese can choose their own path.

I did not intend for this to become a political thread, and I'm going to shut up about politics. I posted it due to the technological impact of this event. If SMIC are unable to access technology from the likes of ASML, and are unable to work with ARM on optimized implementations of ARM IP, then that will make it tougher for domestic Chinese CPU manufacturers. (And yes, I know that ASML are Dutch, and ARM are British. But non-American companies need to respect the Entity List if they still want to be able to do business with the US.)

 

[moinmoin]

Meanwhile: does ASML already sell equipment to SMIC? Does anyone know if ASML has future commitments to sell EUV equipment to SMIC? That's a sensitive issues in-and-of-itself, since it is widely held that SMIC exists as a parasite on some of ASML's biggest customers (namely, TSMC and Samsung). At what point does ASML confront the reality that doing business with SMIC potentialyl harms their other customers, geopolitics aside?

From what I can see SMIC is a customer of ASML, though deliveries are delayed, if due to US pressure or the commonly known backlog is not publicly known. Also SMIC appears to buy old used ASML systems which is a way to circumvent any possible export restrictions.

 

[ajc9988]

Ah the war sabres are rattling.

Meanwhile: does ASML already sell equipment to SMIC? Does anyone know if ASML has future commitments to sell EUV equipment to SMIC? That's a sensitive issues in-and-of-itself, since it is widely held that SMIC exists as a parasite on some of ASML's biggest customers (namely, TSMC and Samsung). At what point does ASML confront the reality that doing business with SMIC potentialyl harms their other customers, geopolitics aside?

Funny you call them a parasite when Intel violated SMIC held patents filled in the US. What specifically are you referring to?

I'm not advocating it! I very much hope that such a scenario never comes to pass. But if China tries to cross the Taiwan straits, that will already be the start of a shooting war with the US. And the entire rationale for the SMIC sanctions is due to their links with the Chinese military, so the US would see bombing of fabs as no different from bombing of munitions factories.

Again- I never, ever want to see this happen. A war between superpowers would be a disaster for the entire world, and millions of innocent people would die. I am only trying to predict what might happen in such an awful scenario.

Saying the US doesn't discriminate between lawful targets and warcrimes. Do you hear yourself? Although a truthful statement, it is not what you think you said. There is no equivocation between civilian infrastructure being attacked, a clear and known war crime, versus a munitions factory supplying arms. You should really research lawful targets under international law before speaking. You probably would have supported John McCain being a war criminal due to him being on his way to bomb a civilian light bulb factory. That's what he was doing when he was shot down and then became a POW.

I am absolutely not advocating it! I am 100% against a war. I do not want a war. I was replying to a comment that referred to China 'acquiring' Taiwan, which I read as the poster suggesting a forcible annexation. I was continuing along that line of speculation. I certainly don't want a war so that I can have a cheap CPU, so please stop slandering me.

If Taiwan votes to rejoin mainland China, great for them. All peoples in all countries have a right to self-determination. The Taiwanese can choose their own path.

I did not intend for this to become a political thread, and I'm going to shut up about politics. I posted it due to the technological impact of this event. If SMIC are unable to access technology from the likes of ASML, and are unable to work with ARM on optimized implementations of ARM IP, then that will make it tougher for domestic Chinese CPU manufacturers. (And yes, I know that ASML are Dutch, and ARM are British. But non-American companies need to respect the Entity List if they still want to be able to do business with the US.)

Look up the one China policy. Technically, China sees, and the UN recognizes, Taiwan as part of China. This bull on acquiring is a western creation. China has started they believe in autonomy for them so long as they recognize they are part of China. They have allowed Taiwan to mainly operate independently for decades. It was only after the US armed them that China threatened to attack and marines at the ready. Imagine if China sold arms to Hawaii and Hawaii wanted its freedom (which the natives do want). The US would see it as an act of war. Why? Because it is. It is inciting revolution, much like the US CIA tried to do in Hong Kong.

But, since the UN doesn't recognize Taiwan as a state and they do not have a US military base, China retaking Taiwan by force IS NOT AN ACT OF WAR AGAINST THE US, and we would be ignorant to enter into a war with China. Look up the war games i mentioned!

Further, ARM may be sold to Nvidia. Due to that deal, they already are moving to restrict licenses to a degree. But that is a more complex scenario.

 

[Ajay]

Man, this thread sucks. It’s not about Taiwan, it’s about sanctions that limit the ability of Chinese semiconductor manufacturers to acquire capital equipment and software tools necessary to move to more advanced nodes.

 

[NostaSeronx]

Stepper => Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (Group) Co., Ltd.
EDA tools => X-Epic, Shanghai Hejian Industrial Software, Advanced Manufacturing EDA Co., Amedac
OSATs => Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology (JCET), Huatian Technology and Tongfu Microelectronics

Probably a lot of I am missing, everything is present probably. I don't think they need Taiwan anymore to make a self-sufficient semiconductor market.

2031-2040 is probably when China mainland leapfrogs over everyone else.

 

[ajc9988]

Stepper => Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (Group) Co., Ltd.
EDA tools => X-Epic, Shanghai Hejian Industrial Software, Advanced Manufacturing EDA Co., Amedac
OSATs => Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology (JCET), Huatian Technology and Tongfu Microelectronics

Probably a lot of I am missing, everything is present probably. I don't think they need Taiwan anymore to make a self-sufficient semiconductor market.

2031-2040 is probably when China mainland leapfrogs over everyone else.

Maybe sooner. For example, Huawei is already testing 6G for telecom.

Sure, we look to the sexier x86 market, and ARM, and even GPU companies. But people often forget the rise of risc-v, an open source architecture from Berkeley. They also don't seem to know about china's mandate that all government computers be made of home grown silicon in the next couple years. That will inject tons of money into their sector for R&D through massive purchase agreements.

Moreover, on x86, Via has entered a joint venture with a Chinese firm giving access to x86 patents to legally develop and produce on that tech. And SIMC will continue with their die shrink and production of Chinese ram.

All cutting off Chinese citizens will do is force them to inject further capital into the Chinese system for R&D.

So I'm unsure if will take even until 2030 for that. Look at Intel's struggles in process node, then look at apple's m1. Then look at Microsoft going ARM. AMD renewing their arm project. Nvidia wanting the arm ip to produce more ARM projects.

China would just be moving to risc-v, the new hotness. It took ARM this long to overtake x86. I'm betting, since China has a lot of experience working with risc chips, generally, such as SPARC (see Tianhe-2), risc-v development may literally be their way of taking dominance from arm moving forward.